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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Let's all take a second to remember that they tried to pin Comey's firing on Rosenstein originally because he was the only one around with any credibility.
 
It will happen though. Someday they'll vote on it.

The consensus of basically the entire party, including McConnell, is that if this doesn't make it by June, it's being dropped.

June ends in exactly 2 weeks

The CBO score, on average, takes about 2 weeks.

There's no indication, as of today, they were even close to ready to score it. If it goes into next week, it's far too late and there's no chance it meets the deadline.

In a act of desperation, I guess they could just pass the pre-scored House bill with no changes at all... but that seems very unlikely.
 

Emerson

May contain jokes =>
The whole angle of "if they only get Trump on obstruction it's a joke" (which I've seen on both sides) is fucking idiotic.

Obstruction of justice is a crime in and of itself for a reason.
 

Kevinroc

Member
The consensus of basically the entire party, including McConnell, is that if this doesn't make it by June, it's being dropped.

June ends in exactly 2 weeks

The CBO score, on average, takes about 2 weeks.

There's no indication, as of today, they were even close to ready to score it. If it goes into next week, it's far too late and there's no chance it meets the deadline.

They could just shrug off missing their artificial deadline. Even the article suggests they'll do that.

If they don't make the August recess that I think we could make the argument they have problems.
 

Blader

Member
The Senate will pass AHCA, if not this month, then at some point. They've already made crystal clear that the public pressure, negative media coverage, and overwhelming unpopularity of the bill is not a part of their healthcare calculus anymore. It's good for drumming up support and hammering these guys in the midterms next year, but it's plainly not a factor in stopping the bill itself anymore.
 
Oh really?

Low Energy Economy. Sad.

Most economists think that between Baby Boomers leaving the workforce and fewer immigrants coming in the number of jobs that needs to be created to match population growth is down to 75 - 100K per month so we're still over population growth. Fewer new jobs being created is still bad obviously.
 

Random Human

They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I'm expecting some giant oppo this afternoon.

As someone who used to lurk this thread during the election to stay sane, the fact that we now basically have oppo droppo every day is a pretty welcome relief.
 
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NYT just jumped on this one haha
 
The Senate will pass AHCA, if not this month, then at some point. They've already made crystal clear that the public pressure, negative media coverage, and overwhelming unpopularity of the bill is not a part of their healthcare calculus anymore. It's good for drumming up support and hammering these guys in the midterms next year, but it's plainly not a factor in stopping the bill itself anymore.
I don't think this is very clear at all. If it was really the case, I don't think they'd be working so hard to limit public exposure to the bill prior to passage. The first House bill died because it spent too much time in the sun prior to voting. The second one squeaked through because it happened so quickly and so quietly that there wasn't time to Marshall resistance; nobody thought it'd really happen until the day before, if that. The longer this thing goes without a vote, the closer the date gets to campaign season and the more pressure those Senators face.
 
They could just shrug off missing their artificial deadline. Even the article suggests they'll do that.

If they don't make the August recess that I think we could make the argument they have problems.

They don't want to work on this bill forever. It's getting in the way of all the other things they'd like to do.

They're also afraid of people protesting their senators during the July recess and having those senators be afraid to pass it.

Time isn't their friend with this, and they know it. It's why they rushed it through the house and are trying to rush it through the senate.
 
Most economists think that between Baby Boomers leaving the workforce and fewer immigrants coming in the number of jobs that needs to be created to match population growth is down to 75 - 100K per month so we're still over population growth. Fewer new jobs being created is still bad obviously.

That's fair, but it's down quite a bit since Obama left. I imagine if they manage to cut corporate tax rates the number of jobs created is going to tank as companies try and min/max revenue by shedding workforces to the bare minimum they need.
 

Kevinroc

Member
They don't want to work on this bill forever. It's getting in the way of all the other things they'd like to do.

They're also afraid of people protesting their senators during the July recess and having those senators be afraid to pass it.

Time isn't their friend with this, and they know it. It's why they rushed it through the house and are trying to rush it through the senate.

I agree that they don't want to work on this forever. But it doesn't quite seem like they are ready to throw in the towel on this just yet.
 
1.He just confirmed the reports that he's under investigation for Obstruction of Justice.
2.His entire defense for the last few months have been that he's not personally under investigation
3.He said publicly that he would have fired Comey regardless of what anyone else said
4.The last time he pissed off Rosenstien it resulted in a special counsel being appointed, i guess he wants some more?
 
GOP sirens blare over Georgia special election


The GOP is bracing for the prospect of a loss in Tuesday’s Georgia’s special election that could have far-reaching implications for President Donald Trump and his party’s fortunes in 2018.

As grim confidential polling data circulates among GOP strategists, interviews with nearly two dozen Republican operatives and officials reveal that they are preparing for the possibility of an unnerving defeat that could spur lawmakers to distance themselves from Trump and his already-troubled legislative agenda, and potentially encourage a wave of retirements.

While no one is willing to publicly write off Handel’s chances just yet — Republicans stress that she remains competitive and point to robust GOP early voting figures — several private surveys taken over the last few weeks show Republican nominee Karen Handel trending downward, with one private party poll showing 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossoff opening up a more than five-point lead in the Republican-oriented, suburban Atlanta seat.

“If we’re losing upper middle class, suburban seats in the South to a 30-year-old progressive liberal, we would be foolish not to be deeply concerned about the possibility that would exist for a tidal wave election for Democrats in 2018,” said Chip Lake, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former Capitol Hill chief of staff.

Some fear the catalytic effect a GOP loss would have on the Democratic opposition, which has been raising money and recruiting candidates at a breakneck pace since Trump’s inauguration.

“If Ossoff wins, you’re going to see the floodgates open, with Democrats recruiting candidates in races from governor to county commission,” said Randy Evans, an influential Republican National Committeeman from Georgia.

The president shoulders some of the blame for the GOP’s predicament. While Trump has tweeted repeatedly about the race and fundraised for Handel — last week, Vice President Mike Pence was dispatched to the district to appear with Handel — Handel’s fade in the polls has coincided with the ratcheting up of Trump’s Russia-related troubles. According to one private survey provided by a GOP group, Trump’s approval rating in the district has dropped from 54 percent to 45 percent since February, a striking decline for a president who has been in office for less than five months.

...

What kind of meltdown can we expect if Ossoff pulls it off?
 

Crocodile

Member
FWIW, I think its in our best interest to assume the AHCA is about to pass until the Democrats get back the House in 2018. GOP seems to be in "don't give a fuck mode", we can't give them any reprieve!

As an aside, I'm getting annoyed how much the Russia stuff is clouding the healthcare issue. Like the Russia stuff matters a lot, nobody should think otherwise. However what the GOP is doing on healthcare is unconscionable (and a better/easier issue to campaign on).
 
I'm actually really curious as to what batshit crazy excuse would be generated if Rosenstein and Mueller were fired.

"I was facing alot of pressure from this russia problem, thats been taken care of now, did you know my birthday is june 14th? I get chocolate cake for my birthday, the most beautiful chocolate cake, its unbelievable."
 
I do wonder if McConnell would chance the calculus if Ossoff wins to just try and ram through whatever they even faster. They may think the quicker they pass things the quicker the public will forget about how bad they areMcConnell is smart, but it's not like he is some political robot. He wants to pass something.
 
Any bill that passes the Senate will not pass the House and vice versa.
Just like any bill that would get passed the FC wouldn't get past more moderate Republicans in the House, and vice versa. Until that turned out not to be true. Not counting on anything at this point. McConnell seems pretty desperate to get something passed, or else he wouldn't be bothering with all these secrecy tactics to begin with, so all these rules about the various Republican factions seem pretty meaningless to me at this point.
 

Okamid3n

Member
What am I missing?
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Donnie just says 100 million because Obama has 90 million on twitter and Donnie can't possibly say a smaller number than Obama's.

Or he's adding up all his social media account's numbers, but that's giving him waaaaay too much credit.
 

Blader

Member
Does Ossoff winning impact the House vote at all? I guess the House already cleared the bar with two votes to spare without needing to fill the GA-6 seat.

I don't think this is very clear at all. If it was really the case, I don't think they'd be working so hard to limit public exposure to the bill prior to passage. The first House bill died because it spent too much time in the sun prior to voting. The second one squeaked through because it happened so quickly and so quietly that there wasn't time to Marshall resistance; nobody thought it'd really happen until the day before, if that. The longer this thing goes without a vote, the closer the date gets to campaign season and the more pressure those Senators face.

If senators like Capito and Portman are okay with rolling back Medicaid after seven years, then it's a done deal. Although I suppose in the final days of the legislation they could add some even more heinous shit to it that even scares those swing-y votes off. I'm just not confident that constituent anger is enough to walk them back from the cliff edge at this point.
 

Gruco

Banned
Ossoff winning will probably kill AHcA.
Tbh I don't think there's​ any other viable path to stopping it. Guy is legit carrying 24 million on his shoulders at this point.

...And it's​ not even guaranteed if he does win.
 
Does Ossoff winning impact the House vote at all? I guess the House already cleared the bar with two votes to spare without needing to fill the GA-6 seat.

Not with the vote how it was, but it could certainly scare some Republicans into changing their vote.

That's one of the main reasons why GA-6 is kind of necessary to win. That and it's the type of district that is the future of the Democratic Party (one of, if not the fastest changing districts in the country if I'm not wrong). MT-AL and KS-04 would have been nice, but neither were really essential or part of Democratic plans for the future.
 

RDreamer

Member
Any bill that passes the Senate will not pass the House and vice versa.

Don't be so sure about that. A bill that passes the Senate and goes to the house is a completely different ball game from a bill just created by the house. If something is passed by the Senate that pushes the House Republicans up against a wall, and it's their big choice to "repeal obamacare" or not. If they don't vote for it then they ruin that chance and can/will get primaried for stopping the Obamacare repeal.
 
There is a nonzero chance the Republicans decide to repeal Obamacare and we should be worried because of that regardless of what happens with elections.
 
FWIW, I think its in our best interest to assume the AHCA is about to pass until the Democrats get back the House in 2018. GOP seems to be in "don't give a fuck mode", we can't give them any reprieve!

As an aside, I'm getting annoyed how much the Russia stuff is clouding the healthcare issue. Like the Russia stuff matters a lot, nobody should think otherwise. However what the GOP is doing on healthcare is unconscionable (and a better/easier issue to campaign on).

It's hard to argue against bills that don't exist. We can't reliably say that the bill sucks because we have nothing to point to.

Messaging wasn't good before until the bill came out and I imagine that'll be true here as well.
 

Gruco

Banned
Not with the vote how it was, but it could certainly scare some Republicans into changing their vote.

That's one of the main reasons why GA-6 is kind of necessary to win. That and it's the type of district that is the future of the Democratic Party (one of, if not the fastest changing districts in the country if I'm not wrong). MT-AL and KS-04 would have been nice, but neither were really essential or part of Democratic plans for the future.
Yeah, to expand on this a little bit. There are any number of districts which Dems could win against an unpopular Trump in 2018. But if the split in 2016 is suggestive of longer term changes in the electorate, GA- 6 is the kind of district Dems can win and hold on to for a more sustainable majority than we had in 2007-2010.

Everything suggests to me than Republicans and Trump are committed to driving people with degrees out of the party. Unless there's a successful anti Trump primary I don't​ see how this changes over the next 8 years.

But hey I've been wrong before
 

Gruco

Banned
Ras with 50% approval, unbelievable.

At some point, I'm just going to start my polling shop, ask people on the street if they like Trump iff they're wearing a MAGA hat, and report the 100% approval rating. Mad props from the prez totally worth it.
 
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