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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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D

Deuce Deuce

Member
whyamihere said:
And Conryn has also said that the Cruz amendment might not work because of reconciliation rules. So who knows where we are.
Click to expand...

Oooh. So, we're looking basically at Obamacare-lite then (if it even passes).

Doesn't sound like the mind-blowing healthcare changes we've been promised.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I just dont see a bill passing unless the uninsured number comes way down. Its a no-sell when you go "look, 30℅ of people in my state are going to be uninsured but for those who are insured we have great funding for Opiod crisis now".
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Someone made a compelling case about one of the Rogue WH accounts being manned by a Russian troll. The spelling - "vakay" instead of vacay, e.g. - gave the game away.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
It'll be kind of hard for Collins and Heller to get to yes without a radical retool, while Paul's gone in just about any circumstance, and it's hard to get Lee and Cruz to "yes" without wrecking reconciliation rules.

Not to mention that Moran, Capito, Cassidy, and Portman are all out now and you've got a challenge on our hands.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Ogodei said:
It'll be kind of hard for Collins and Heller to get to yes without a radical retool, while Paul's gone in just about any circumstance, and it's hard to get Lee and Cruz to "yes" without wrecking reconciliation rules.

Not to mention that Moran, Capito, Cassidy, and Portman are all out now and you've got a challenge on our hands.
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Those last four are pretty much freebies though. Pretty telling they only came out against the bill once the vote was delayed. If McConnell had forced a vote they would have been there.

I mean I'm guessing something will still pass because I want to keep my guard up, but what? I don't see McConnell's path here. Either someone folds hard or he writes a magic bill that everyone's on board with.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Something's happening in Alabama thanks to the last governor. Two big Democrats are running for Governor now.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/20...ttee-for-possible-Democratic-bid-for-governor

Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox has been mulling seeking the Democratic nomination for governor of Alabama, and on Thursday, he announced that he was forming an exploratory committee. Maddox says he's still deciding, though he put out a very candidate-like statement and video. Maddox did not say when he expects to make a final decision.

Maddox didn't hide his party affiliation, writing, ”There's something else you need to know. I'm a Democrat. While many have urged me to change parties for the sake of political convenience, that would be dishonest. Dishonest with you and dishonest with myself." Still, Maddox argued that ”the days of running for the Democratic Party or for the Republican Party need to end." Maddox told the Montgomery Advertiser that Alabama needs a break from its many recent scandals; most dramatically, GOP Gov. Robert Bentley resigned in May after trying to cover up a sex scandal. The Yellowhammer State is incredibly conservative, but Democrats may have an opening if they can make the case that change is needed.

Democrats don't have a very large bench here, but Maddox has long been mentioned as a rising star. Maddox earned some attention for his work helping Tuscaloosa recover from the destructive 2011 tornados, and he recently won a fourth term with ease. However, if Maddox runs, he won't have a clear path to the Democratic nod. Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, one of the last Democrats to win statewide office, is in, though she made some enemies in the party when she resigned in 2011, which allowed Bentley to pick her successor; Cobb also backed then-Sen. Jeff Sessions' nomination to become attorney general.

A few other Democrats, most notably 2010 nominee Ron Sparks, have also expressed interest. Things are even more unsettled on the GOP side, where new Gov. Kay Ivey has yet to announce her 2018 plans, but several Republicans are running regardless of what she does.
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S

ShadowSwordmaster

Banned
I guess this is a thing now?
House Republicans OK Measure Asking Military to Study Climate Change

The Republican-led House Armed Services Committee took a quietly momentous step Wednesday by passing an amendment requesting a Defense Department report on the security risks posed by climate change.

The importance lies less in the details of the measure—an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act—than in the political statement from a body that only one year ago tried to block the military from spending money to prepare for climate change.
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W

whyamihere

Banned
Are there any big 2018 races where Democrats still don't have a top tier candidate? Wisconsin governor? Vermont governor? New Hampshire governor?
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
*Screaming* if Trump actually makes us competitive in Ala-fucking-bama.

*Weeping* at Alabama getting there before Oklahoma.

*Reposting* my thoughts about the Alabama gubernatorial race from the last thread:

Again we see the importance of a true fifty-state strategy. This woman sounds like the bluest of blue dogs, and I doubt her opinions on race would be overly liberal, given that she endorsed Sessions. But she at least has a snowball's chance to win in Alabama, especially during a wave year. Hell, she won her judgeship that way! While I'd probably disagree with her on almost every issue, I prefer her in that mansion over a Republican.

Of course, I can already envision a snag. I assume that any Democrat in Alabama needs support from black voters, the state's largest Democratic bloc. She'll therefore need to appeal to them in her campaign. If she targets black voters, though, she might alienate the white (supremacist) voters, who'll accuse her of helping those people. This catch-22 might apply in most of the deep south except perhaps Georgia. (Edwards in Louisiana only got lucky because of Vitter's corruption.)
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B

Barzul

Member
What does opening up the exchanges to more plan work exactly? I think the only way I could see it is if you have put a barebones plan on the exchanges, you must have one that contains essential health benefits and the cost of the beefier plan cannot be more than a % of the barebones plan. Also make it that congress approves the cost sharing subsidies and no longer the HHS.

It really does look like whatever bill we end up with will be to the left of the original BRCA. I'm skeptical that it will still garner enough votes, or that it can be passed via reconciliation.
 
L

lush

Member
"Again, I feel like I've already been asked and answered the question..."

x1000

Throw in "Donald Trump is a fighter" a dozen times for good measure.

Bring back Spicer.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Vixdean said:
So what's the point of this now? Not only does it not repeal Obamacare, it handcuffs every GOP congressman to a system they've been calling catastrophic for the better part of a decade. No way this flys.
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Yeah, the opposing forces at play are hard to weigh. Republicans scared of going back to their base empty-handed vs. literally codifying a much shittier version of Obamacare and then being responsible for all its shortcomings.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
'The only role model I would tell my kids to look to is God'.

Basically: 'Yes, the president is a dick. No, I would never suggest anyone model themselves after his childish behavior.'
 
B

Barzul

Member
IggyChooChoo said:
Yeah, the opposing forces at play are hard to weigh. Republicans scared of going back to their base empty-handed vs. literally codifying a much shittier version of Obamacare and then being responsible for all its shortcomings.
Click to expand...
Yeah this what it comes down too. The senators know. The house reps also, but you can't exactly gerrymander a state, so at some point the roosters will come home to roost. It's fucking hard to take things away from people and that's exactly what is going to happen.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
We don't have top tiers in governor's races in Arkansas, South Carolina, Maine, Idaho, Wisconsin, Texas and Vermont. And I guess New Hampshire, hard to tell. That's it.

THAT'S INSANE. WE HAVE REAL CANDIDATES EVERYWHERE ELSE, FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

EDIT: Forgot Texas
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
whyamihere said:
We don’t have top tiers in governor’s races in Arkansas, South Carolina, Maine, Idaho, Wisconsin, and Vermont. And I guess New Hampshire, hard to tell. That's it.

THAT'S INSANE. WE HAVE REAL CANDIDATES EVERYWHERE ELSE, FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH CAROLINA.
Click to expand...

You forgot Oklahoma.

I don't blame you.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
whyamihere said:
Are there any big 2018 races where Democrats still don't have a top tier candidate? Wisconsin governor? Vermont governor? New Hampshire governor?
Click to expand...
Wisconsin's only declared candidate is a carpetbagger who just lost a race in California last year.

The only person we have for NH is the person who lost to Sununu last year. Looks like no one for Texas has declared yet. Those are the only races I've noticed without any sort of real looking challenger.
 
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