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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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smokeymicpot

smokeymicpot

Beat EviLore at pool.
DCdmraMUIAAjgMX.jpg


Hope it is good news.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
smokeymicpot said:
Hope it is good news.
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Me too. He should leave Congress by being defeated in a race, not like this. No democratically elected official should have to fear being gunned down.

By the by, did we ever determine if Rosenstein's advice not to trust foreign sources was in relation to Russia's claiming to have killed the ISIS head honcho? Or are we still expecting an explosive story from a foreign government later today?
 
T

Teggy

Member
Autodidact said:
Me too. He should leave Congress by being defeated in a race, not like this. No democratically elected official should have to fear being gunned down.

By the by, did we ever determine if Rosenstein's advice not to trust foreign sources was in relation to Russia's claiming to have killed the ISIS head honcho? Or are we still expecting an explosive story from a foreign government later today?
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Pretty sure it was a Wash Post story about Kushner that was a little vague on the sourcing. They updated the story so it was clear the sources were US.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Teggy said:
and if they threw them out months ago?

I guess most stuff is done on computer these days.
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Throwing them out months ago would have been illegal. The law states that people need to hold on to evidence when then reasonably know that an investigation is possible. There doesn't need to be an official request, just reasonable evidence that an investigation could happen. There have been news stories since September about some of this stuff.
 
R

RumbleHumble

Banned
Blader said:
I'm not sure there's a bloc of senior Republican voters who were leaning toward Ossoff until they were reminded they hate Jane Fonda. I have to assume those are already committed partisans.
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I think assuming the people behind this ad are intelligent enough to put this together is giving them maybe a little too much credit.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Shit like the Fonda ad just goes to show you how little Republicans actually have on Ossoff, he's pretty squeaky-clean as a candidate. I mean their big move early on in the campaign was home movies of him cosplaying as Han Solo. Like, whatever.

Kind of reminds me of how desperate the attacks against Obama were.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I'm curious to see what the actual turn out on EDay is next Tuesday.

We could have a situation where it's closer than Round 1 between Ossoff and Handel in the EV and then... everyone already cannibalized their voters and the EDay vote is small.

I do not think that we will get the 326,005 people who voted in 2016, since it already seems like the EV is dropping per day and not escalating like it usually does. But 250,000 seems likely.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
Are there any Georgian senate or governor position opening in 2018 or 2020 that Ossoff could run for and maybe win?
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Georgia gov in 2018, but I'd rather he focus on re-election if he gets elected on Tuesday. There are already a few decent D candidates for the governor's race anyway.

There's a Senate race in 2020 against a first-termer. Might not be a terrible idea for him to run in that, depending on how his tenure in Congress goes.
 
F

fredrancour

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Shit like the Fonda ad just goes to show you how little Republicans actually have on Ossoff, he's pretty squeaky-clean as a candidate. I mean their big move early on in the campaign was home movies of him cosplaying as Han Solo. Like, whatever.

Kind of reminds me of how desperate the attacks against Obama were.
Click to expand...

It's pretty crazy that their last line of defense is "look at bad Photoshop of a celebrity you hated in the 70s"
 
M

Mizerman

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Shit like the Fonda ad just goes to show you how little Republicans actually have on Ossoff, he's pretty squeaky-clean as a candidate. I mean their big move early on in the campaign was home movies of him cosplaying as Han Solo. Like, whatever.

Kind of reminds me of how desperate the attacks against Obama were.
Click to expand...

Seriously. Making an political attack ad of somebody who...cosplayed an iconic character from a very popular franchise. Really? That's all they have?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
This is another chart that paints an interesting picture for Ossoff.

DCaEahRXYAYRRC5.jpg


Those gray bubbles are the independent voters who haven't voted in primaries, and are non-traditional voters. Those are the voters that Ossoff is banking will take him over the finish line because they're younger and more diverse.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Mizerman said:
Seriously. Making an political attack ad of somebody who...cosplayed an iconic character from a very popular franchise. Really? That's all they have?
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It seemed like it was at a costume party too.

Like y'all motherfuckers have never gone to a costume party. Haters please familiarize yourself with the left-handed evacuation procedure
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
whyamihere said:
This is another chart that paints an interesting picture for Ossoff.

DCaEahRXYAYRRC5.jpg


Those gray bubbles are the independent voters who haven't voted in primaries, and are non-traditional voters. Those are the voters that Ossoff is banking will take him over the finish line because they're younger and more diverse.
Click to expand...

Couldn't some of those voters also be Democrats and Republicans? If new and non-traditional, they wouldn't have a primary voting history, but they could be registered with either party.
 
T

Teggy

Member
whyamihere said:
This is another chart that paints an interesting picture for Ossoff.

DCaEahRXYAYRRC5.jpg


Those gray bubbles are the independent voters who haven't voted in primaries, and are non-traditional voters. Those are the voters that Ossoff is banking will take him over the finish line because they're younger and more diverse.
Click to expand...

I have never figured out this graph. What are the axes showing?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Autodidact said:
Really? I knew they had open primaries, but are you saying that all voters are effectively independents? Their registration cards don't list party affiliations?
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Your "registration" is just what primary you last voted in. It's the same with Ohio. It makes this sort of hard to track.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Autodidact said:
x-axis: how likely a particular group of voters is to vote

y-axis: what percentage has actually voted
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Ah, ok so this is showing that people who most recently voted democrat are more reliably voting in this race than republicans, however 1) the size of the republican bubbles might be canceling out the difference and 2) we don't know if there are crossover voters.


Total non-sequitor, but this article I just saw really stood out at me.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/amp/laundry-pods-can-be-fatal-adults-dementia-n773366

It says that 8 people have died in the last 5 years by accidentally eating dishwasher pods. They are pushing for the companies to make the pods look less like candy and they are receptive.

Compare to gun manufacturers response to gun deaths.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
...Karen Handel isn't very good at this.

https://thegavoice.com/karen-handel-faith-calls-different-place-gay-adoption/

Handel was also approached by a woman with an LGBT daughter, who asked the candidate what protections she would have if she wanted to adopt children in the future.

“I have to be honest, my faith calls me to a different place on that issue,” Handel said per video taken by a Democratic tracker and obtained by Georgia Voice. “My faith also calls me to be compassionate, and so I always try to do that. I don’t—I’m not aware of anything in the law that, right now, that I’m aware of, that is gonna be impactful from a discriminatory standpoint against your daughter.”

The woman then expressed concerns about Vice President Mike Pence’s anti-LGBT views, saying, “I know what his stance is on LGBT and that scares me, yeah.”

Handel then twice says “the issue’s been decided by the U.S. Supreme Court” and stands up to leave.
Click to expand...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Eh, Harper is a B- rated pollster by 538. It's a Republican pollster, sure, but it also had a *slight* D lean (D+0.3%), based on the 538 analysis. So, yeah, that's worrying.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
whyamihere said:
Eh, Harper is a B- rated pollster by 538. It's a Republican pollster, sure, but it also had a *slight* D lean (D+0.3%), based on the 538 analysis. So, yeah, that's worrying.
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Northam and Perriello both got more primary votes that Gillespie. Its going to take more than one poll to make this race concerning.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Tamanon said:
Isn't he in charge of twitter? Weird choice.

Unless it has to do with how they made their ad targeting decisions, and if it was based on any information that was hacked by the Russians.
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Maybe they want to isolate which tweets are his and his alone on record
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Preliminary polls tended to show Perriello and Northam both ahead of Gillespie and there's definitely an enthusiasm gap right now, especially in the kind of Republicans that Gillespie would naturally turn out (Stewart might have been the better bet in that regard, he'd alienate more people but have a more enthusiastic base).
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
DCd6dQ1VoAAcMwq.jpg:small


McConnell making a run at Ryan for "Worst person in Washington."
 
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