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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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J

jtb

Banned
Someone please explain to me how Harris is the 2020 frontrunner. How?? I've said it before, but every day that passes, I see it less and less - is it just because she looks the part (i.e. "the next Obama")?

excelsiorlef said:
He won everyone up to 44 years of age and was close up to 59.
Click to expand...

But they gave him the edge in an incredibly close primary. The fact that they actually turned out "decided" the primary.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
"young lefties" were the bulk of Bernie's 43% of the primary vote (since Native Americans and Muslims are too small to matter in the primaries) and will be a larger share of the electorate as older voters die and Bernie voters will be older (and as such, more likely to vote) and newer voters will be able to vote for the first time.

But besides, even if they aren't the only needed bloc they're a big one and what bloc is going to grant Cuomo a bloc to victory if they scorn him (which they should). Do you really think he's going to be able to sweep the south like Hillary did?
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No.

And that's my point he's not going to lose because of the young left vote.

It'll be because he probably can't get the rest either.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
The only consistently discussed candidates under 55 are Cory Booker, who I believe will be 52 in 2020, and Gillibrand, who will be 54. Harris will be 56, Warren will be 72, Bernie will be 78, Cuomo will be 63, Biden will be 78. Even some of the more obscure/dark horses will be older, Brown will be 68 I think, Klobuchar will 61, etc.
Click to expand...

this is largely a result of the Dems losing a shitton of state elections in 2010-now
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
whyamihere said:
Well, Nina Turner is 49.
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i literally don't get idea she has a broad base. she's never discussed by the left

its sanders nymphets (who are not the biggest part of "the left") who saw her has one of his only defenders when the rest of the party was shitting on him.

that's not the dynamic now where bernie is well liked in the party.

she's a name people through because they don't know the others, that won't be the case when the race starts
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
NYCmetsfan said:
i literally don't get idea she has a broad base.

its sanders nymphets who saw her has one of his only defenders when the rest of the party was shitting on him.

that's not the dynamic now where bernie is well liked in the party.

she's a name people through because they don't know the others, that won't be the case when the race starts
Click to expand...

Pretty sure he's joking :lol
 
J

jtb

Banned
Losers like McGovern created a new generation of Democratic activists.

I wouldn't underestimate the political power of the young left right now, particularly with Trump keeping them activated. Granted, I think the young left is very different from the DSA left (which is vocal and small and too tied up in their own pettiness to ever be a factor).
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
excelsiorlef said:
I mean ok but when have young lefties been a make or break it demographic in the Primary?
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Maybe he could win a primary but we do need someone who is better with young people in a general.

We need to get 60%+ .. at least according to Hillary's team post Mortem.

I don't think Bernie is the only one who can get that though. A replacement level dem will likely do better than Hillary there just because of four years of Trump fuckery but we should make sure someone we nominate is easily positioned to exceed that.

I think the list of candidates meeting where we want to be with youth is probably something like

Yes- Bernie, Harris, Franken

Maybe- Murphy, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Biden

Maybe but probably not- Hickenlooper, Cuomo

No- Booker, Zuckerburg,+ anyone of the O'Malley tier.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Maybe he could win a primary but we do need someone who is better with young people in a general.

We need to get 60%+ .. at least according to Hillary's team post Mortem.

I don't think Bernie is the only one who can get that though. A replacement level dem will likely do better than Hillary there just because of four years of Trump fuckery but we should make sure someone we nominate is easily positioned to exceed that.

I think the list of candidates meeting where we want to be with youth is probably something like

Yes- Bernie, Harris, Franken

Maybe- Murphy, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Biden

Maybe but probably not- Hickenlooper, Cuomo

No- Booker, Zuckerburg,+ anyone of the O'Malley tier.
Click to expand...
Biden will have clinton issues with the left.

Biden is pretty much the clinton triangulation strategy
 
K

kirblar

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Biden will have clinton issues with the left.

Biden is pretty much the clinton triangulation strategy
Click to expand...
He has far less issues because he's got more charisma, wasn't under GOP attack for the past 8 years, his gaffes are far less of an issue against Trump, and has a penis.

(mind you, I don't think him running is a good idea because we need to do a generation shift here!)
 
J

jtb

Banned
It's too bad Tim Kaine is considered damaged goods from 2016. I like him a lot. He's a genuinely good guy (a rare commodity!) and a good politician.

And has been so thoroughly vetted over the past eight years that he can't possibly have any skeletons in the closet (looks suspiciously at Cory Booker)

Also Booker was, as usual, super underwhelming on the latest PSA.
 
K

kirblar

Member
jtb said:
It's too bad Tim Kaine is considered damaged goods from 2016. I like him a lot.
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Kaine wouldn't and shouldn't be running, and really shouldn't have ever been Hillary's VP pick in the first place. VA wasn't in danger of flipping. (And I say this as someone who likes him!)
 
J

jtb

Banned
PBY said:
He has the charisma of an oven mitt?
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I think he has charisma, but it was never on display in 2016 because the Hillary campaign used him horribly. Not as a powerful orator, but more of a down to earth, relatable Biden-esque charisma, imo, minus the overt car salesman charm.

kirblar said:
Kaine wouldn't and shouldn't be running, and really shouldn't have ever been Hillary's VP pick in the first place. VA wasn't in danger of flipping. (And I say this as someone who likes him!)
Click to expand...

He was horribly used as Hillary's VP. His job was basically to be nobody and get the fuck out of the way.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Autodidact said:
Nobody with a dick will face the issues Hillary faced with the left. Hell, some of them said we should run Biden despite his being more conservative than Hillary.
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Only reason I put him in "maybe" and "maybe but probably not" was I think regardless of his positions or whatever he didn't run this cycle and didn't lose to Trump and would benefit from +youth just because there will be more desperation next time around

Like I can see a scenario in which Hillary chose not to run this cycle for whatever reason, and Trump still won against O'absy, that she would do better herself with young voters in 2020

but regardless yeah I may have overstated his position with youth voters. He'd likely do better with the White working class that Hillary lost out on and that's probably it
 
C

Chumley

Banned
That eyeroll gif of Merkel with Putin reminded me how she's probably the only leader right now who can actually challenge his grasp of the political stage. The dude is a motherfucker but he's such a complete genius at manipulating and charming people that its scary. The reason he hated HRC so much is because she saw through all that.
 
P

Prof. Bathtub

Member
Though I don't think Oliver Stone, Assange or Trump are exactly the people you need to be a genius to manipulate or charm.

Megyn Kelly too. Man, we trust a lot of dumb people to talk to him, huh?
 
C

Chumley

Banned
Prof. Bathtub said:
Though I don't think Oliver Stone or Trump are exactly the people you need to be a genius to manipulate or charm.
Click to expand...

I could be misremembering but didn't Obama call him a nice guy or friendly or something in the first half of his Presidency? I thought it wasn't until 2013 or 2014 that he finally started calling him a thug.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
This is super anecdotal but I wouldn't write off Booker's chances to attract a lot of that left-youth vote that was drawn to Bernie. I'm well aware of the concerns surrounding him for more knowledgeable folks but I saw a TON of young people latching on to him before and after the election in my sizeable college town. People, especially young people, love his charisma and demeanor. I wouldn't be surprised to see many just ignore or shrug off his issues because they like him personally.

Look at Bernie and his supporters. Many of his ideas were pie in the sky for at least a couple of decades but he said the right things and has a way of inspiring certain people. A guy like Booker could possibly have that same effect. Just look at the reaction to his DNC speech.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
jtb said:
Someone please explain to me how Harris is the 2020 frontrunner. How?? I've said it before, but every day that passes, I see it less and less - is it just because she looks the part (i.e. "the next Obama")?



But they gave him the edge in an incredibly close primary. The fact that they actually turned out "decided" the primary.
Click to expand...

He won because he was competitive amongst all age groups up to age 59.

Sanders dominated the youth vote at a much much much higher rate than Obama but was far far far less competitive as the age went up.

I can't find it but who won the 30-44 age group in 2016.

I'm just not convinced the youth vote are kingmakers.

Willing to be wrong though.

Plus if Sanders doesn't run you can't count on the same landslide for one candidate or the same level of enthusiasm/turn out from young voters.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
excelsiorlef said:
He won because he was competitive amongst all age groups up to age 59.

Sanders dominated the youth vote at a much much much higher rate but was far far less competitive as the age went up.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what you're trying to say here.

The youth bloc is a huge part of the Democratic electorate and it will be larger in 2020 than it was in 2016. Is your point that appealing to the youngs isn't a guaranteed way to win the primary?
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Even putting aside Cuomo specifically, I'm pretty opposed to people using the governor's mansion in important states to leapfrog to other offices since I think that leads to candidates who only care about the higher offices. NY as a state is more powerful than several first-world countries; its highest executive office isn't a resume booster.

Now if you're governor of a shithole state, go for it. Or rather just run for federal office like Senate seats first.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Anyone who can win the disaster year of 2006 has proven their electability.
Click to expand...

During the Wisconsin recall, the Democratic primary for governor came down to Tom Barrett, the guy who lost to Walker the first time around, and Kathleen Falk, the only Wisconsin Democrat to lose a statewide election during the 2006 midterms.

Kinda says everything you need to know about the Wisconsin Democratic Party.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Box of Kittens said:
During the Wisconsin recall, the Democratic primary for governor came down to Tom Barrett, the guy who lost to Walker the first time around, and Kathleen Falk, the only Wisconsin Democrat to lose a statewide election during the 2006 midterms.

Kinda says everything you need to know about the Wisconsin Democratic Party.
Click to expand...

Can I run? I can form a sentence and enjoy cheese.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
This just seems unnecessary as a point, then, of course the youth is not a large enough bloc to win the primary by themselves, literally no bloc is large enough to do that.
Click to expand...

The way I read the conversation I was replying too was that the youth (and left)demographic would stop Cuomo from winning...


Again maybe I just read the conversation wrong, it happens from time to time :)
 
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