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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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whyamihere
Banned
Yes and no... you have a lot of power over your state, but not in the national spotlight as much, and you are not on committees and passing laws that can have sweeping effects across the nation. You are more of a local/regional presence unless you are popular like Kasich.
And honestly in some ways it's depressing. Look at Gov. Wolf. He gets steamrolled by the PA GOP nearly every god damn time.
Generally it's a step down but Collins is 65 and likely nearing the end of her time in politics anyway in the next decade, so it makes sense for her circumstances.
Apples and oranges.
Senators are top national-level legislators, while governors are top state-level executives. Politicians have shifted between the two both ways.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I struggle to think of a moderate position that makes sense other than centrism. Like, I guess you could be really far left and right on various different issues? Doesn't seem logical.
Or politically apathetic/ignorant by choice. Which is still dumb.
Or politically apathetic/ignorant by choice. Which is still dumb.
Finale Fireworker
Member
I have no idea. For as much as I hear on a daily basis that Paul LePage is the scourge upon the state that humiliates and desecrates our once strong, independent state, I never hear anything about a challenger. I know there is concern right now as the state tries to get runoff voted implemented because Maine's three-party history will be definitively over if it's not. LePage has won twice with minority votes. It is very poor democracy because insane people all rally around one insane person and everyone else divides between two people cursed to lose.
whyamihere
Banned
OK HD-75 Results:
(R) Nunley - 47.68%
*(D) Gaddis - 52.32%
OK SD-44 Results (2 precincts remaining):
Griffin (R) - 45.32%
*(D) Brooks - 54.68%
Those are some big swings.
(R) Nunley - 47.68%
*(D) Gaddis - 52.32%
OK SD-44 Results (2 precincts remaining):
Griffin (R) - 45.32%
*(D) Brooks - 54.68%
Those are some big swings.
Man, that piece of analysis has held up even worse than usual for Nate.
Also, she knows she'll have to take a ton of unpopular votes if she stays as a Senator. Just ask Olympia Snowe.
The two parties have gotten much more, for lack of a better word, efficient at sorting themselves and defining cleavages. Just look at staples like the Hyde amendment, and how voting records have shifted over time between the two parties. Ditto stuff like conservationism.
It's the random collection of far left/right positions- https://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5878293/lets-stop-using-the-word-moderate
Autodidact
Banned
Maybe I could get elected here.
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
whyamihere
Banned
The entire Oklahoma Democratic Senate Caucus increased by 16% tonight!!! (from 6 to 7 members lol)
In fairness, Oklahoma has always been an obvious swing state.
Governors performed horribly in the 2016 primary. (And pitting Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum in a cage fight to the death lol)
2016 could be an abberation, but when you look at the broader trend with 2008's heavy lean towards Senators and even the 2004 Democratic primary, I think presidential politics is more national than ever before. It appears that you need a national profile more than ever to launch a successful presidential bid, and by virtue of their job, senators have a much more national profile than governors do.
Finally, Nate has a very poor grasp of primary politics because the polling is far too volatile, and it was more glaring than ever in 2016.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Was there an election tonight in Oklahoma? If there was i didnt hear a single thing about it.
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
whyamihere
Banned
DailyKos running the Trump numbers for those districts.
That's a D+26.2 swing.
That's a D+26.2 swing.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Results are in, Oklahoma wants the D
Autodidact
Banned
State-level.
Unfortunately, I live in neither district. My county tends to be the most Democratic in the area because of the sizable Native American population, so I wonder how things might've gone here. (And I really want to vote for something.)
Woo wee, what's going on in OK to justify this swing? I thought it was a very reliable red state.
What's this have to do with Herbie Hancock.... wait.
I get to vote again in VA in 4 months.
That election should be interesting. Hopefully fun and interesting. But definitely interesting.
Autodidact
Banned
Again, the State Senate election was held to replace a pedophile caught in a motel room with a 17-year-old.
I have no clue about the dynamics of the State House race besides general anti-Trump sentiment.
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
While this is just an opinion at the end of the day, there was this legal opinion published by the Attorney General's Office of Legal Counsel back in 1974 just before Nixon resigned, that that a President cannot pardon themselves.
https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/1974/08/31/op-olc-supp-v001-p0370_0.pdf
This amusingly does actually give Trump an out. If Pense was made Acting President though the 25th Amendment, he could Pardon Trump, and Trump could resume his role as President. Also Congress can pardon the President if they really wanted to.
https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/olc/opinions/1974/08/31/op-olc-supp-v001-p0370_0.pdf
This amusingly does actually give Trump an out. If Pense was made Acting President though the 25th Amendment, he could Pardon Trump, and Trump could resume his role as President. Also Congress can pardon the President if they really wanted to.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Did Dems pick up both Oklahoma seats?
Niiiice. I know we were favored in one of them (the Dem raised over 100k which is obscene for a State House district) but I believe the Senate seat would have been considered an upset.
Iirc the gov there (Fallin?) is also very unpopular so that could be a contributing factor.
Edit: nvm I had that backwards. All the same!
Niiiice. I know we were favored in one of them (the Dem raised over 100k which is obscene for a State House district) but I believe the Senate seat would have been considered an upset.
Iirc the gov there (Fallin?) is also very unpopular so that could be a contributing factor.
Edit: nvm I had that backwards. All the same!
Autodidact
Banned
We still re-elected her in 2014.
I can proudly say that I live in one of the few Democratic Senate districts (don't try to find me). Again, the Native American population probably helps substantially.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I mean sure but a lot of shitty GOP governors got reelected in 2014. Brownback, Snyder, Scott, LePage... The overwhelming sense of "OBAMA SUX ISIS EBOLA BLEARRRRRGGGGH" prevailed over "man these guys are really fucking incompetent"
Box of Kittens
Banned
Dems can't win in Oklahoma guys, why are we even contesting these races?
LOL Tom Corbett.
LOL Tom Corbett.
whyamihere
Banned
This is now the third special election in Oklahoma with huge swings. The last one, the Dem almost pulled off an upset in a Trump+50 district. Something's going on there. Fallin?
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I had to check and there's like, three state senate seats in Idaho that would flip with these OK numbers. Every other seats is R+25-R+30 (and the rest are uncontested). That would be a 50% increase in our state senate power, though, if we picked up all three of them.
we're so fucked
we're so fucked
Imo, seems easy to pin all these local swings on super unpopular GOP governors, but doesn't that just beg the question: which tea party governors aren't enormously unpopular?
Seems like the ones that always get pointed to (Kasich, Baker, etc.) are decidedly moderate.
Turns out obliterating the social safety net to give tax cuts to the wealthy is not a popular plank?
Seems like the ones that always get pointed to (Kasich, Baker, etc.) are decidedly moderate.
Turns out obliterating the social safety net to give tax cuts to the wealthy is not a popular plank?
whyamihere
Banned
Trump won EVERY county in Oklahoma. I would think his numbers still are holding up there.
ugaboga232
Member
Why am I watching Hannity? Why does his logo look like a cheap beer logo?
Poodlestrike
Banned
OK I think is proving an interesting test case. When the national Republican apparatus bends itself towards a particular race (GA-6), they can absolutely summon the diehard support. When they don't, you get these OK races.
Speaks well of our chances for 2018, tbh. FOX only has so many hours in a day.
Speaks well of our chances for 2018, tbh. FOX only has so many hours in a day.
Finale Fireworker
Member
So wait, did we pick up some seats in OK?
Poodlestrike
Banned
One State House and one State Senate. Nothing to get too excited over but there's some potentially interesting implications.
Yup. A wave is a wave.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Oklahoma's economy has been absolutely devastated by republicans and they cant blame it on Obama anymore.
Aaron Strife
Banned
This was the House Democrat's campaign slogan
I think education could be our winning issue next year, particularly in state elections and especially in red states where the governors have totally screwed the pooch.
SC-5 was even closer than GA-6 and got zero attention by comparison.
I think education could be our winning issue next year, particularly in state elections and especially in red states where the governors have totally screwed the pooch.
Not every race is going to have $50 million thrown at it either.
SC-5 was even closer than GA-6 and got zero attention by comparison.
whyamihere
Banned
Agreed. And even then, they were only able to match Hillary's already better-than-Obama numbers in GA-6. That's worrisome for the GOP.
Poodlestrike
Banned
That being said, it DOES mean that the Senate is almost certainly out of reach. If I were Republican propaganda strategists right now, I'd basically write off the house and devote the time and money to securing Flake and whoever the next most vulnerable ends up being that isn't Heller (who's almost certainly done for). Maybe go after a really poorly polling D red stater. There's no way they can defend every vulnerable House seat they'd need to, but if they focus in on a couple Senate races they can probably keep those.
RustyNails
Member
IIRC Oklahoma is the only state that went more red in 2008 compared to every other 49 states that trended blue. Just a throwaway nugget.
Aaron Strife
Banned
West Virginia moved right.
Oklahoma was the only state where McCain won every county though.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Walker's proposed increased education funding in Wisconsin, although his whole thing is playing the part of a moderate right before election time, then pushing a hard right agenda immediately after.
To be grossly generalistic, lean R districts hate teachers unions. Education is a loser. Healthcare is a winner.
I actually go the other way on this, re: the Senate. I think it's much easier for house reps to fly under the radar of being tied to Trump. But Senators? There's just so much ammunition and Trump isn't going to get any more popular anytime soon.
Granted, it's probably impossible to gain a majority. But Heller is dead in the water, and Flake should be feeling insane pressure. A 2006-esque 50/50 seems doable.
I actually go the other way on this, re: the Senate. I think it's much easier for house reps to fly under the radar of being tied to Trump. But Senators? There's just so much ammunition and Trump isn't going to get any more popular anytime soon.
Granted, it's probably impossible to gain a majority. But Heller is dead in the water, and Flake should be feeling insane pressure. A 2006-esque 50/50 seems doable.
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