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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
This was the House Democrat's campaign slogan

karen_gaddis.jpg


I think education could be our winning issue next year, particularly in state elections and especially in red states where the governors have totally screwed the pooch.


Not every race is going to have $50 million thrown at it either.

SC-5 was even closer than GA-6 and got zero attention by comparison.
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GREAT slogan for austerity-plagued red states.

SC-5 is another datapoint on the national attention=Republican win meter. The swing there was HUGE.

whyamihere said:
Agreed. And even then, they were only able to match Hillary's already better-than-Obama numbers in GA-6. That's worrisome for the GOP.
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Yeah. If these numbers keep up there's just no way they can possibly defend all the turf they have to. House, Senate, and State races... man this could be big.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
This was the House Democrat's campaign slogan

karen_gaddis.jpg


I think education could be our winning issue next year, particularly in state elections and especially in red states where the governors have totally screwed the pooch.


Not every race is going to have $50 million thrown at it either.

SC-5 was even closer than GA-6 and got zero attention by comparison.
Click to expand...
Democrats need a clear message on education, then, which they definitely don't have right now. Opposing charter schools would be a great start (my girl Whitmer is on this, I think)
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
You don't need to run on teacher's unions to run on education, especially in states like Oklahoma or Kansas where the public school system's been devastated.

Bonen no Max'd said:
Democrats need a clear message on education, then, which they definitely don't have right now. Opposing charter schools would be a great start (my girl Whitmer is on this, I think)
Click to expand...
That's fair, but a K12 agenda is also going to be more vague since much of that is left up to the states anyway.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
jtb said:
To be grossly generalistic, lean R districts hate teachers unions. Education is a loser. Healthcare is a winner.



I actually go the other way on this, re: the Senate. I think it's much easier for house reps to fly under the radar of being tied to Trump. But Senators? There's just so much ammunition and Trump isn't going to get any more popular anytime soon.

Granted, it's probably impossible to gain a majority. But Heller is dead in the water, and Flake should be feeling insane pressure. A 2006-esque 50/50 seems doable.
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R's have a hard anti-intellectual lean but tend to be in favor of local schools, broadly. As per usual they hate and fear things they have no experience with.

The thing is, being under the radar is working out in our favor. We've got the grassroots energy and enthusiasm right now. They can summon it, but they need to devote money and airtime to rallying the base. I'm not saying we can or should ignore these races, but the pattern is starting to look pretty clear: the more any given race factors into the national media cycle, the higher Republican turnout gets. They're not showing up for races that don't... uh, show up, I guess.

Bonen no Max'd said:
Democrats need a clear message on education, then, which they definitely don't have right now. Opposing charter schools would be a great start (my girl Whitmer is on this, I think)
Click to expand...

This is kind of a weird take, tbh. We need to be empowering local parties to stake out their own positions and messaging. National attention does us very little good, and that's unlikely to be changed from the top down.
 
J

jtb

Banned
every time I look at that 18 senate map I think of what an enormous missed opportunity 2016 was. fuuuuck. stupid 'GOP senate check on Hillary' bullshit
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
jtb said:
To be grossly generalistic, lean R districts hate teachers unions. Education is a loser. Healthcare is a winner.



I actually go the other way on this, re: the Senate. I think it's much easier for house reps to fly under the radar of being tied to Trump. But Senators? There's just so much ammunition and Trump isn't going to get any more popular anytime soon.

Granted, it's probably impossible to gain a majority. But Heller is dead in the water, and Flake should be feeling insane pressure. A 2006-esque 50/50 seems doable.
Click to expand...

Even that's a big win because it really forces some people to take some rough votes. Right now they can let a couple play moderate every now and then, but I'd love to cut into that.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
jtb said:
Granted, it's probably impossible to gain a majority. But Heller is dead in the water, and Flake should be feeling insane pressure. A 2006-esque 50/50 seems doable.
Click to expand...

Dems got an outright majority in 2006, counting Lieberman and Sanders. The 50/50 split was after the 2000 election, though that only lasted until Jeffords switched and gave the Dems the majority.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
You don't need to run on teacher's unions to run on education, especially in states like Oklahoma or Kansas where the public school system's been devastated.


That's fair, but a K12 agenda is also going to be more vague since much of that is left up to the states anyway.
Click to expand...
Yeah but like, I think it's important to Democrats to be clear on things like "charter schools exist to steal your money and give it to private hands while removing democratic control, and they don't even work" and especially for the next Democratic president to not appoint a Secretary of Education who works to break apart public schools in favor of charters.

For whatever it's worth, when I was canvassing last year education funding was one of our main three talking points, along with expanding Medicaid and protecting public lands.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Dems got an outright majority in 2006, counting Lieberman and Sanders. The 50/50 split was after the 2000 election, though that only lasted until Jeffords switched and gave the Dems the majority.12w
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Ah, right. Man, fuck Lieberman though.

For some reason, I always think of Harold Ford as the 51st D senator so I always count Ds as coming up short.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
Yeah but like, I think it's important to Democrats to be clear on things like "charter schools exist to steal your money and give it to private hands while removing democratic control, and they don't even work" and especially for the next Democratic president to not appoint a Secretary of Education who works to break apart public schools in favor of charters.

For whatever it's worth, when I was canvassing last year education funding was one of our main three talking points, along with expanding Medicaid and protecting public lands.
Click to expand...

Their point was about Senate races though and of all elected officials, US Senators probably have the least to do with education like that.

I'd actually like to change that if possible. How ironclad is state control of education?
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
AntraxSuicide said:
Their point was about Senate races though and of all elected officials, US Senators probably have the least to do with education like that.

I'd actually like to change that if possible. How ironclad is state control of education?
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I thought he was specifically referring to state legislative Democrats, since he brought up that it was the OK House Dem's slogan.

I'm pretty sure that education is something that like, the federal government can't directly control but there's a number of ways to get around that. You can offer grants to states that comply with your regulatory goals (this is what Arne Duncan used, by offering education funding to states that hit certain goals on charter schools, he got substantially more states to meet his standards than grants he had to hand out because states are desperate for money) or you can be like "nice roads you have there, would be a shame if we were no longer going to give you money for them unless you do what we want"
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
jtb said:
every time I look at that 18 senate map I think of what an enormous missed opportunity 2016 was. fuuuuck. stupid 'GOP senate check on Hillary' bullshit
Click to expand...
Yeah. We just needed Feingold and McGinty to win and I'd feel a lot better about 2018.

Add Kander to that and I'd feel a lot better about right fucking now.

Wonder if Schumer would have rushed Garland through during the two weeks Obama was still president.

whyamihere said:
John Bel Edwards is for sure getting reelected isn't he.
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I hope so, assuming the governor in LA has any power over redistricting.

Wonder if we could sweep all three governor's races up in 2019. Hold Edwards, beat Bevin, elect that one guy in Mississippi who's basically Jesus there.
 
J

jtb

Banned
I wasn't really referring to anything. I just don't have a lot of faith in the average GOP voter to care about anything education.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah. We just needed Feingold and McGinty to win and I'd feel a lot better about 2018.

Add Kander to that and I'd feel a lot better about right fucking now.

Wonder if Schumer would have rushed Garland through during the two weeks Obama was still president.


I hope so, assuming the governor in LA has any power over redistricting.
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also how bad was Evan Bayh in 2016? I mean that was one fucking uninspired election campaign.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
whyamihere said:
John Bel Edwards is for sure getting reelected isn't he.
Click to expand...

I'm gonna go with "probably." Incumbency + pendulum + wildly unpopular president can most likely overcome the fact that he frankly got carried over the line by constant Republican scandals. Still, I wouldn't count out the whitelash from the confederate memorials thing, especially if something ends up giving it new life not long before the election, like one of the statues getting damaged or something.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
ArkhamFantasy said:
Oklahoma's economy has been absolutely devastated by republicans and they cant blame it on Obama anymore.
Click to expand...

Plus they are cutting services and education with some classes being cut and class rooms size increased, among other things like 4 days instead of 5. Pretty sure education is mostly targeted for cuts and it gets the biggest.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...1f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.0a38e744abb3

But funding for classrooms has been shrinking for years in this deep-red state as lawmakers have cut taxes, slicing away hundreds of millions of dollars in annual revenue in what some Oklahomans consider a cautionary tale about the real-life consequences of the small-government approach favored by Republican majorities in Washington and statehouses nationwide.
Click to expand...

The Democrats can win more seats if the focus on improving the school system and solving the budget crisis.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
jtb said:
also how bad was Evan Bayh in 2016? I mean that was one fucking uninspired election campaign.
Click to expand...
Damn, I remember being so hopeful when he jumped in.

I was thinking the other day about when Hillary's campaign pumped money into MI, NM, VA and CO just to help the downballot and we're running ads for McGinty and Hassan to ensure they'd get the majority. I still can't believe how badly everything went to shit.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Damn, I remember being so hopeful when he jumped in.

I was thinking the other day about when Hillary's campaign pumped money into MI, NM, VA and CO just to help the downballot and we're running ads for McGinty and Hassan to ensure they'd get the majority. I still can't believe how badly everything went to shit.
Click to expand...
Her downfall was a toxic blend of Trump inciting the worst in everyone, Comey, and the Mook being a fucking moron.

Comey really pushed everything over the threshold though, I think.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
Her downfall was a toxic blend of Trump inciting the worst in everyone, Comey, and the Mook being a fucking moron.

Comey really pushed everything over the threshold though, I think.
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Yeah, Mook and Trump were more fundamental problems, Comey sending the letter was one deliberate action that blew the whole thing up. She probably would have pulled a solid five-point win without it. We'd have the Senate, the Supreme Court and would right now be worrying about how bad 2018 would be.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
jtb said:
Ah, right. Man, fuck Lieberman though.

For some reason, I always think of Harold Ford as the 51st D senator so I always count Ds as coming up short.
Click to expand...

Dems had 7 targets that cycle and needed 6 for the majority. Ford, as you said, was the one that got away. Webb ultimately put us over the top, his race being called very late (perhaps even the next day).
 
S

Slizeezyc

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah, Mook and Trump were more fundamental problems, Comey sending the letter was one deliberate action that blew the whole thing up. She probably would have pulled a solid five-point win without it. We'd have the Senate, the Supreme Court and would right now be worrying about how bad 2018 would be.
Click to expand...

Man, it'd be baaaaaaaaad.

(but obviously I'd still take it)
 
J

jtb

Banned
I don't blame Mook, I blame Hillary. For all of her failings in 08, she was basically the only member of her campaign team that understood her message and a viable political strategy to win the primary. The four year layoff between SOS and 2016 were an enormous mistake, imo. She was genuinely out of touch with the rhythms of being in politics.

Mook and co. can do all the messaging crafting they want, but she's the candidate.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
RustyNails said:
Mook was completely out of depth, from everything I've read about him.
Click to expand...

Not to speak ill of the forum dead, but did we all just not realize it because Adam was so positive on him?

Also, on Oklahoma, I think there's a weird thing where people are willing to vote for the 'dead' party in a state if it's obvious they won't have much of a political impact. Like, if the Democrat's were on the drink of winning the State House, they'd have no shot, but because this at worst, might moderate the GOP on education, people feel safe voting for Democrats, since they know ya' know, the Democrats won't be passing out free abortions or whatever we supposedly do when in power. :)
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
Dems had 7 targets that cycle and needed 6 for the majority. Ford, as you said, was the one that got away. Webb ultimately put us over the top, his race being called very late (perhaps even the next day).
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Now we only realistically have three and need to win all of them.

Oh well, even if we just win the House I'll still be partying. 50/50 Senate is the most I'm hoping for and that's still a clean sweep of everything we hold, NV (very possible) and AZ (ehhhhhhhhh).
 
S

skullmuffins

Banned
Meanwhile it's still insane that Trump is trying to replace the FBI director in the middle of all this. Wray's confirmation hearing is tomorrow morning. Hope the senators come packed with good questions.
 
S

SatelliteOfLove

Member
chadskin said:
Trump's Russia Lawyer Isn't Seeking Security Clearance, And May Have Trouble Getting One

Alcohol addiction is terrible and I wish him well but if I were Trump, I'd perhaps seek someone else to represent me ...
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"He doesn't listen, and he doesn't pay."

No chance.

Teggy said:
According to the times article the Jr emails were uncovered by Kushner's lawyers.
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PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds Watergate

Hubbl3 said:
Ah, so he's just a temporarily embarrassed Republican who will likely still vote for Republicans.
Click to expand...

It's probably more like he'll vote for '92 or earlier GOP, not any of the partly-cuckolded, partly-treasonous, all-failure shitshow that is the recent GOP.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
I really wish that someone would persuade Dan Boren, OK's most recent Democratic representative, to run for governor. Name recognition is half the battle, and he proved his electoral durability by surviving the 2010 Tea Party wave.

Yes, yes, Bluest of Blue Dogs, anti-choice, publicly anti-LGBT, I know, but in OK, you take what you can get.
 
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