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[whyamihere]

Bullockmentum

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/17/...prod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share

PROVIDENCE, R.I. — Many elected Democrats have drifted left since the party’s shattering defeat last November, turning to a brand of progressive politics that is closer to Senator Bernie Sanders’s democratic socialism than the more market-friendly liberalism that characterized the Obama era.

But when the nation’s governors gathered here over the weekend for their annual summer meeting, a group of pragmatic Democrats took center stage. And now one of them is taking the first steps toward seeking the presidency in 2020.

“I believe the time is right to lend my voice, the voice of someone that after getting elected has been able to govern in what’s viewed as a red state,” Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana said in an interview. “Some of the things that I’ve been able to do in Montana can also translate beyond just the state’s border.”

Mr. Bullock is creating a federal political action committee, Big Sky Values PAC, that will offer a political infrastructure to let him meet Democratic donors, contribute to the party’s candidates and fund his out-of-state electoral travels.

As is typical for most potential candidates this far out from the next White House campaign, he said it was premature to discuss whether he would actually run.

Yet Mr. Bullock already has the makings of a national stump speech. He boasts about his progressive accomplishments with a Republican-dominated legislature: He expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, cutting the rate of the state’s uninsured by over half, implemented stricter campaign finance laws and made Montana one of the few states to increase support for higher education.

While appealing to the Democratic heart, Mr. Bullock also has a message for the Democratic head. He talks of the party’s need to broaden its appeal beyond the coasts — Mr. Bullock won re-election as Donald J. Trump captured Montana by over 20 points — while implying they cannot turn to a septuagenarian as their nominee.

“There’s a lot of folks out there talking that are a lot older than middle-aged guys like me,” said Mr. Bullock, 51, alluding to some of the party’s best-known figures.


And if the contrast with the likes of Mr. Sanders, 75, were not obvious enough, the governor held up one of his accomplishments against one of Mr. Sanders’s calling cards.

“We can talk free college for all all we want, but there’s a whole lot of people that can get a darn good job, like in Montana, out of an apprenticeship,” Mr. Bullock said, citing programs he has supported as governor. “Sixty-thousand-dollar average salary, and they’re making money while they’re getting there.”

He also said he was uneasy about immediately implementing another of Mr. Sanders’s signature promises, Medicare for all.

He may be more overt about his ambitions, but Mr. Bullock was by no means the only Democratic governor here eyeing the White House.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe of Virginia, the chairman of the National Governors Association, exuberantly led a panel that drew Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and the Tesla entrepreneur Elon Musk, with an eye toward raising his profile. The host governor, Gina Raimondo of Rhode Island, may also be open to a presidential run.

And while each is from a decidedly more Democratic state than Mr. Bullock, both are also unapologetic, business-friendly pragmatists with a focus on economic development that borders on obsessive.

Mr. McAuliffe will not retreat from his support for free trade pacts, slyly noting that he stands with “the president” (as in: Barack Obama) on the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

And Ms. Raimondo, noting that “all I’m doing is jobs,” recalled with a touch of incredulity how she recently gave an economic speech and was told afterward by attendees that it was “risky” to “have that pro-growth, pro-job message as a Democrat.”

Recounting her efforts to promote apprenticeships in Rhode Island’s shipyards, Ms. Raimondo echoed Mr. Bullock on free college for all. “I don’t care if they ever go and get a four-year degree or not,” she said, warning her party not to be “snobby” about higher education.

The challenge for the would-be presidential contenders on the center left, however, can be found in how Mr. Trump found success.

Unlike Republican nominees before him, the president ran on a platform of racially tinged nationalism, vowing to tear up trade deals and protect entitlements while using language rarely heard from mainstream politicians about minority communities.

In attempting to explain Mr. Trump’s victory, many Democrats have therefore chalked it up to his racial demagogy and rhetorical populism. They find the first of these tactics reprehensible, but many have an impulse to counter the president with their own, more robust brand of populism.

This reaction does not point toward budget-balancing governors preaching pragmatism.

Yet the whims of political fate can be fickle.

After the 2004 election, Democrats’ second consecutive presidential loss, some in the party believed that they could win in 2008 only by nominating a red-state centrist. They won with an African-American Chicagoan named Barack Hussein Obama.

And after their own back-to-back presidential defeats, Republicans said after 2012 that the path back to the White House could be found in nominating a candidate better able to connect with the younger and more diverse rising American electorate. Enter Mr. Trump.

So there may be hope yet for Mr. Bullock, a former state attorney general whose down-home boosterism about Montana’s natural wonders belies a Columbia Law degree and stint as a Washington lawyer at Steptoe & Johnson. He has already started on the Democratic speaking circuit, appearing before a Center for American Progress forum in May. Next week, he will attend another donor-filled gathering on the “Divided States of America” at the Aspen Institute.

To the barricades it is not.

“The values folks want is for government to run its own budgets and be as careful with their money as a family is with their own,” Mr. Bullock said.

 

[tedrotheredro]

I'm so glad Paul Ryan drove his caucus off a cliff just so he could watch the bill die in the Senate. What was the point of that again?

 

[BlastProcessing]

Don't ever be in that situation. Invest incredibly heavily in Poland's border defence now, encourage Europe to develop their military power, station rotating troops on the Polish border at all times, make it clear that invasion of Poland is such a significant cost it could never possibly be worth it. Putin shouldn't be just seizing Poland; that should be an impossibility right from the outset. Make your policy proactive, not reactive.

The Military build up you are describing isn't going to accomplish much. Russia is going to invade Poland by attacking their electoral process. They are already doing it! So all of the power that we place in Poland will be pretty much useless. Why are you trying to solve a 21st century problem with 20th century tactics?

It turns out that our new digital society just happens to be incredibly susceptible to the precise techniques that Russia has honed and mastered for a hundred years. They are incredibly well equipped to destabilize us.

We have to be proactive about that. So yes, we need to counter Russia on their cyber and information warfare and we need to slap them with sanctions. We need to treat what they are doing as serious and we need to make plans on how to deal with it.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Other than Senators in Medicaid expansion states who want to keep their seats in '18 and '20.

You're right, we're lucky that the House and Senate bills have both been consistently tanked by moderates worried about the Medicaid cuts

 

[balladofwindfishes]

everyone should be glad its current incarnation is stopped but there's nothing guaranteeing that a slightly more draconian version of the bill won't be crafted when McCain gets back and we'll be back to where we started

A more moderate bill lacks the votes

A more conservative bill lacks the votes

This is the same problem they had last month and will continue to be the problem. A 52 majority is just not enough to pass whatever you want without any input from the other party.

 

[Emerson]

LOL

get fucking rekt mitch and trump you slimy fucking weasels

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

lmao McAuliffe4Prez sounds so bad

A more moderate bill lacks the votes

A more conservative bill lacks the votes

This is the same problem they had last month and will continue to be the problem. A 52 majority is just not enough to pass whatever you want without any input from the other party.

the moderates in the House talked a big game until the conservatives got what they wanted

the moderates in the Senate were talking a big game until the conservatives got what they wanted until McCain's health stopped the progress they were making

it's not guaranteed one way or the other but assume it's dead is foolish

 

[Slayven]

For two years and then they just vote in the GOP once the Dems fix it.

Sadly that is america

 

[sc0la]

Moran calling for "open legislative process."

Turning on McConnell and calling for a fair and open process with democrats leads me to believe they see the writing on the wall here.

Moran finally got a brain.

GO USA

 

[BlastProcessing]

Nobody wanted to be the 3rd vote so Lee and Moran pulled a:

It's kind of adorable, really.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Moran finally got a brain.

GO USA

Goddamn.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I wonder how much capital did Mitch burned to get this far?

He wasted 6 months of time that could have been spent elsewhere

He wasted their once a year reconciliation bill

He caused the House to put their names on a bill with a 17% approval rating for no reason at all

He gave the Democrats every talking point they'll ever need in 2018


Mitch McConnell is basically the biggest disaster of a Republican currently around, and the GOP has Trump in it.

lmao McAuliffe4Prez sounds so bad

the moderates in the House talked a big game until the conservatives got what they wanted

the moderates in the Senate were talking a big game until the conservatives got what they wanted until McCain's health stopped the progress they were making

it's not guaranteed one way or the other but assume it's dead is foolish

The House and Senate are entirely different. People were saying this since it passed the House, and it still remains true. I'm not really sure what more evidence you need that this is the case with the bill now failing for a second time. There's nobody like Collins in the House, who are a firm, hard no, no matter what.

McCain didn't matter, it just gave them an easy out. It's pretty obvious in hindsight they still did not have the votes.

 

[Emerson]

lmao McAuliffe4Prez sounds so bad

the moderates in the House talked a big game until the conservatives got what they wanted

the moderates in the Senate were talking a big game until the conservatives got what they wanted until McCain's health stopped the progress they were making

it's not guaranteed one way or the other but assume it's dead is foolish

They weren't making any fucking progress. There was literally nothing (other than perpetually-terrified analysts on twitter being perpetually-terrified) to indicate they had the votes to pass it regardless of McCain's illness.

 

[whyamihere]

Gina Riamondo is one of the least popular governors in the country.

Shut up, Gina.

Shut up, Terry, too.

 

[kirblar]

No seriously, this is the GOP version of Carter.

Get elected w/ giant majorities and most governerships...and can't get shit done.

Gina Riamondo is one of the least popular governors in the country.

Shut up, Gina.

Shut up, Terry, too.

Terry's actually popular in VA lol

 

[whyamihere]

@SenatorHeitkamp
With bipartisan action, Congress could actually improve health care so it works better for North Dakota and the country. Let's get to work

@AP
BREAKING: Republican Sens. Mike Lee and Jerry Moran announce opposition to health care bill, dealing blow to GOP hopes.

 

[Got the Shakes]

These Republicans sure are great at Governing...

It's almost as if you need leadership from the executive to pass major legislation


ThinkingEmoji.bmp

They don't know what to do with themselves when they have to actually try and lead instead of just spending 6 years of blocking the Obama agenda.

 

[Slizeezyc]

And now the mass exodus begins for this iteration of the bill since now it's safe to do so. Time is a flat circle.

 

[Officerrob]

Big fear now is the turtle tries to save face by throwing in with the repeal now, replace later crowd. I can't put it past him....

Who cares? That's 100% not passing

 

[Surfinn]

Just got the NYT notification that two more GOP senators are a no.

Rejoice

 

[IggyChooChoo]

He wasted 6 months of time that could have been spent elsewhere

He wasted their once a year reconciliation bill

He caused the House to put their names on a bill with a 17% approval rating for no reason at all

He gave the Democrats every talking point they'll ever need in 2018


Mitch McConnell is basically the biggest disaster of a Republican currently around, and the GOP has Trump in it.

He also crippled their shot at tax reform, and cemented Trump's burgeoning reputation as a confused, impotent dealkiller!

 

[Autodidact]

Queen of the North thinking strategically. I could maybe see Congress producing an ACA fix-bill, provided that Ryan can swallow his pride and get help from Pelosi, but Trump would almost assuredly veto anything that preserved and improved the ACA. Democrats get to say how bipartisan they've been, Republicans look like morons, and we have ammo for 2018.

Next on my wishlist...

 

[Holmes]

First of all, Jenna is awesome.

Second of all, a Brown candidacy in 2020 with VP choices like Harris, Bullock, Klobuchar or Gillibrand would be the best.

 

[whyamihere]

Queen of the North thinking strategically. I could maybe see Congress producing an ACA fix-bill, provided that Ryan can swallow his pride and get help from Pelosi, but Trump would almost assuredly veto anything that preserved and improved the ACA. Democrats get to say how bipartisan they've been, Republicans look like morons, and we have ammo for 2018.

Next on my wishlist...

This is the idea situation imo.

Or, even that the Senate passes something bipartisan that never is taken up in the House and our Romney Senators can say, look what we did.

 

[Plinko]

if Moran's saying he opposes the bill because he thinks it could lead to single payer (lolololol) was it Roberts that said single payer was worth discussion?

edit: also if something really is the matter with Kansas, Roberts' seat is up in 2020 and he's old af (so he might retire and leave the seat open) and already had a steeper reelection challenge than you'd expect in 2014 soooooo

yeah it's hopium but something good happened so I'm entitled to a little

I think they see a blue wave coming, which is why they're already setting up the "single-payer is horrible blah blah blah" lines.

 

[whyamihere]

Here they come...

@Phil_Mattingly
Aide on Moran/Lee opposition: "More senators are ready to jump. This wasn't done without that knowledge."

 

[Random Human]

Is it realistically possible Trump and this congress will have no real legislative accomplishments (beyond the one Supreme Court seat)? God that would be amazing.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Is it realistically possible Trump and this congress will have no real legislative accomplishments (beyond the one Supreme Court seat)? God that would be amazing.

Just unfortunate that would be the most damaging. 30 years of that shit judge on the bench helping to ensure poors and minorities stay down.

 

[whyamihere]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/115th_United_States_Congress

Major legislation[edit]
Enacted[edit]
Main article: List of acts of the 115th United States Congress

May 5, 2017: Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2017, Pub.L. 115–31

 

[kirblar]

Is it realistically possible Trump and this congress will have no real legislative accomplishments (beyond the one Supreme Court seat)? God that would be amazing.

Yes. We weren't making Carter comparisons early on out of misplaced optimism.

 

[sc0la]

No seriously, this is the GOP version of Carter.

Get elected w/ giant majorities and most governerships...and can't get shit done.

Terry's actually popular in VA lol

Carter without the empathy + Nixon without the cunning

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Here they come...

Time for July's "Profiles in Courage"

 

[StopMakingSense]

If this all comes crashing down for good, there should be a bronze statue of McCain's clot erected in DC.

 

[Random Human]

Carter without the empathy + Nixon without the cunning

This seems like a really good comparison.

 

[ShadowSwordmaster]

Here they come...

Hold on to your butts.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

After it failed the first time we were talking about McConnell stepping down

But failing a second time, he should seriously consider it. He's a massive failure and did irreparable damage to the GOP going into 2018.

 

[Barzul]

If the GOP senators really want this dead this is the time to really do it. The more of you do it the more insulated you are from Trump's attacks.

 

[whyamihere]

@costareports
An ideologically-driven GOP leadership is confronting the reality of a law that now has roots in states, fading as rally cry for base.

@costareports
Most elected Rs don't fear primary challenge if they buck repeal. They see base's ire as grievance/"fake news" focused, not ACA obsessed.

@costareports
Trump's sale was limited, as were threats for foes. A little chatter about Flake, a few tweets, brief ad war with Heller. That's it.

@costareports
Privately, several House mbrs and Sns told me for weeks they didn't really want to pass it. Like groom w/ cold feet, after long engagement.

Sad.

 

[Autodidact]

After it failed the first time we were talking about McConnell stepping down

But failing a second time, he should seriously consider it. He's a massive failure and did irreparable damage to the GOP going into 2018.

The only problem: many of them hate Cornyn more than they hate McConnell.

 

[Abinash117]

Maybe McCain being hospitalized made it more comfortable for legislators to say no?

To expand on the news, Trump was in part, one of the reasons the Republicans have a tough time.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/17/obamacare-repeal-republicans-white-house-240607

And the Trump administration’s lack of sufficient staff and planning for that early effort helped lay the groundwork for the legislative chaos the GOP’s agenda is mired in today.

During the transition, the Trump administration never established a great deal of coordination with the Hill or a concrete game plan for health care, according to congressional aides and one former transition official.

The transition had just a handful of health policy people, who were also tasked with working on the confirmation processes for Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Seema Verma. The administration official said the lengthy confirmation process, which he blamed on Democrats, hurt the White House because it meant the administration did not have two key health policy experts in place.

Helping sort through the process were Marc Short, now the White House legislative affairs director; Rick Dearborn, the White House deputy chief of staff; and Stephen Miller, a senior adviser for policy. All three had congressional experience, but several Republicans said Trump’s staff lacked experience negotiating or moving major legislation.

“I just don’t have confidence that the administration had the health care expertise and policy advice that they needed there,” said G. William Hoagland, former staff director for the Senate Budget Committee and former leadership aide to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. “The result is what we are seeing today.”

The president and one of his former campaign rivals also unexpectedly helped undermine the GOP’s repeal plans. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said on television the GOP needed a replacement plan if it was going to repeal the law. Then Trump endorsed that requirement. Their comments caused GOP leaders to start from scratch.

Now that the Senate’s attempt to revamp the health care law has run into roadblocks — with moderates insisting on protecting coverage for their constituents, while conservatives focus on undoing as much of Obamacare as possible — both Paul and Trump have suggested going back to a repeal-only bill.

Many Republicans say that’s unworkable now.

As Trump himself infamously remarked, “nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated”

Spoiler

The last quote was at the beginning actually.

 

[mo60]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/115th_United_States_Congress

I love how the GOP through congress has basically only passed one piece of legislation since January 21st 2017.They literally have the equivalent of a majority in other election systems and they only managed to pass one piece of legislation successfully so far.

 

[Zolo]

Sad.

So they're really going for the media as an enemy for election next year? Uh....okay.

 

[HanShotFirst]

I'm not sure if anyone else has pointed this put in this thread yet so I apologize if I'm repeating it, but it just occurred to me that there are not many opportunities for Democrats to make big gains in the senate besides 2020, but then again there doesn't seem to be many for Republicans either.

Best case scenario in 2018: Democrats pick up two seats tie senate.
2020: Democrat pick up 5-7 seats in Dem swing.
2022: This was said earlier in the thread 2016 was bad year for Democrats as they only picked up 2 seats. So, Republicans may only gain 1-2 seats( NH and NV most likely, although NV is tough as it went blue last year will be more blue in 2022)
then 2024 is 2018 class again and only 6 Republicans up so maybe we pick up Texas?

This is a lot of speculation and I don't know what the climate will be like that far into the future but its my current observation.

 

[sc0la]

This seems like a really good comparison.

I stole it from somewhere on the internet. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Box of Kittens]

Congressional Republicans are completely dysfunctional. Combine that with a slim majority in the Senate and McConnell has a very tough job. Still, like the current GOP in general, he works a lot better in opposition than when he has to try and govern.

Still won't breathe easy until and unless we have a Dem House.

 

[Earthbound64]

Apologies if old - saw this on OKCupid (and I'm pretty sure the question has existed like this for a number of years, although I may be wrong), and had to share:

 

[Random Human]

I stole it from somewhere on the internet. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

Great poets steal

 

[Surfinn]

Apologies if old - saw this on OKCupid (and I'm pretty sure the question has existed like this for a number of years, although I may be wrong), and had to share:

Lol, I saw this exact question. Got a good laugh out of it

 

[Deuce Deuce]

This all punctuates how effective, organized, and diligent Obama and Dem lawmakers were. Really impressive looking back at it now.

 

[mo60]

I'm not sure if anyone else has pointed this put in this thread yet so I apologize if I'm repeating it, but it just occurred to me that there are not many opportunities for Democrats to make big gains in the senate besides 2020, but then again there doesn't seem to be many for Republicans either.

Best case scenario in 2018: Democrats pick up two seats tie senate.
2020: Democrat pick up 5-7 seats in Dem swing.
2022: This was said earlier in the thread 2016 was bad year for Democrats as they only picked up 2 seats. So, Republicans may only gain 1-2 seats( NH and NV most likely, although NV is tough as it went blue last year will be more blue in 2022)
then 2024 is 2018 class again and only 6 Republicans up so maybe we pick up Texas?

This is a lot of speculation and I don't know what the climate will be like that far into the future but its my current observation.

Texas and Arizona should be close enough to being blue states by 2024 that it may be possible for democrats to win the senate seats in those states if they did not win those seats in 2018. Also 2024 is a presidential year so that should help out democrats a bit in terms of the downballot.