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[whyamihere]

More turnout

In runoff, 12k votes had been cast by 3pm in Dekalb.

But Dekalb is also under flash flood warning...

The worst part of the rain is not in the part of DeKalb in the district!

From AJC:

In DeKalb County, about 25 percent of eligible voters turned out early. More than one-in-three registered people voted early in Fulton County's portion of the 6th District, while more than 23 percent came out early in Cobb.

This meant Fulton had a lot more EV than Dekalb/Cobb. So Dekalb/Cobb e-day numbers will be interesting to see.

The Cobb numbers needs to be low. This is encouraging. Also could mean less Handel enthusiasm.

 

[Plinko]

Hell, Nunes might be a subject of the investigation.

I would be shocked if he wasn't with the way he has acted.

 

[Autodidact]

I think some people here (mostly in OT) have a vested interest in Ossoff losing. They've convinced themselves that the world has permanently descended into misery and disappointment, and they can't even fathom a positive result because it would contradict their narrative.

 

[Hooligan69]

No, this race is going to be won by a third contender. A dark horse. A silent protector.

Jeb is a mess! *airhorn!*

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

So I was looking into the NJ gubernatorial race and Bill Brennan was dropping some serious truth. Can someone give me a reason to be excited that Phil Murphy won the primary instead? Here's a quote from Brennan at a townhall Q&A the candidates attended on social justice:

There are certain crimes that if you commit them, you should never be able to participate in the electoral process again. Those crimes include official misconduct, extortion, bribery, closing bridges. And with the exception of crimes touching upon public employment, if you have served your time, then you should be allowed to participate.

We have a Jim Crow system that carries forward. We can connect today’s incarceration nation directly back to slavery; it is exactly the reason they’re doing it. We had lease labor after Reconstruction, and what was that? Put black people in jail, make them work, lease them out to their former owners. And what are we doing today? We have the Correction Corporation of America making money on our misery. And this has got to stop. So, in no uncertain terms, am I going to continue Jim Crow. I’m going to come up here; I’m going to go there and I’m going to go everywhere, and I’m going to tell the truth about what our nation is doing to its own people.

Our nation was built upon two things: the genocide of Native Americans and the enslavement of African Americans. And, today, in the United States of America, right now, Native Americans are standing their ground at Standing Rock against the government of the United States and African Americans are still locked up in prisons and working for corporations as if slavery never ended. And that, my friends, is how we’re going to stop it. The question was, ‘What am I going to do about it?’ If I cannot get the Legislature to bend to the will of my needs as a governor who wants to free the people of this state, then I will use the power of my office to pardon every single nonviolent [alleged offender] and they will vote.

Dude got 2.24% of the vote in the primary.

 

[TestOfTide]

So I know Cobb is considered the GOP's leaning part of the district, but which one is the democratic leaning part and which one is the "swing" leaning part?

 

[Autodidact]

So I know Cobb is considered the GOP's leaning part of the district, but which one is the democratic leaning part and which one is the "swing" leaning part?

DeKalb = Democratic
Fulton = Swingy

 

[AntraxSuicide]

So I was looking into the NJ gubernatorial race and Bill Brennan was dropping some serious truth. Can someone give me a reason to be excited that Phil Murphy won the primary instead? Here's a quote from Brennan at a townhall Q&A the candidates attended on social justice:



Dude got 2.24% of the vote in the primary.

Good answer. Need more people this emphatic.

 

[whyamihere]

DeKalb = Democratic
Fulton = Swingy

Fulton is normal Democratic, but the GA-6 part of Fulton is swingy.

 

[Slizeezyc]

It's a meme I will never not find hilarious, and I have no idea why. Seeing it pop-up in the UK election thread was great XD

Haha yes I saw it there too and died. Hardest I've laughed at it in a long time, which revitalized my belief in it.

I will say, though, it's maybe a commentary on MEMEZ and the internet in that I was weirdly rooting for Jeb to buy the Marlins purely because of this meme, which scares me on some level.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's a meme I will never not find hilarious, and I have no idea why. Seeing it pop-up in the UK election thread was great XD

Yep, always gets a smile out of me whenever I see it

 

[Teggy]

A couple of the precincts are open until 7:30 due to some mechanical issues I saw.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

All them poll people chiming in now.

 

[whyamihere]

All them poll people chiming in now.

No one knows anything because no one has seen any EDay votes outside of DeKalb!

We know it's going to be a 50/50 race!

Let's just wait and see!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

All them poll people chiming in now.

The turnout seems to be good in Ossoff areas, so the turnout could also be high enthusiasm for Ossoff.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Let's just wait and see!

 

[JP_]

People say that they want to reform how Washington works or whatever, but what exactly do people want changed? I'm not saying things shouldn't be changed, but I honestly don't know what people actually want to do. Sometimes it seems like it's just that some want their particular policy to get passed.

People talk about it all the time. It basically comes down to corporate interests having too much power. Passing bank reform without the bank lobby watering it down. Passing healthcare reform without the health insurance lobby getting in the way. Passing gun reforms without the NRA putting up walls. It's the general idea that our government is inefficient because it doesn't focus on what's best for the people and instead serves the elite.

And while these things probably lean towards democrats, I think it's something that appeals across party lines. Ask republicans and they'll tell you democrats are in the pockets of special interests. That was party of Trump's appeal -- this false idea that he was already rich so he wouldn't be in it for himself or his friends. It's not the whole story of this election or any election, but I do think it plays a big part -- especially with the big chunk of people that don't even vote. Yes, it'd be nice if they understood the game theory of the US election system and voted anyway -- but that's not something we can depend on.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Let's just wait and see!

But I want to discuss results say we're doomed NOW!

 

[Y2Kev]

So I was looking into the NJ gubernatorial race and Bill Brennan was dropping some serious truth. Can someone give me a reason to be excited that Phil Murphy won the primary instead? Here's a quote from Brennan at a townhall Q&A the candidates attended on social justice:



Dude got 2.24% of the vote in the primary.

Why do you have to be excited? I think people in this state are looking forward to someone who isn't a fuckwad fat dipshit cancelling major construction projects that make this state livable!

 

[Blader]

All them poll people chiming in now.

High turnout, low turnout, no turnout, Ossoff loses in every scenario!

 

[Slizeezyc]

High turnout, low turnout, no turnout, Ossoff loses in every scenario!

FUCK!

 

[Y2Kev]

High turnout, low turnout, no turnout, Ossoff loses in every scenario!

I kind of feel that in wasserman. Up? Good. Down? Good. Meat? GOOOOD

 

[studyguy]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/877269770361597954

Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur)
It’s happening: @SenateMajLdr McConnell says to expect a draft Senate health care bill on Thursday.

WSJ timeline is dead on.
AHCA this week, CBO next week early, vote the day after.

 

[Random Human]

Don't get too excited.

But I have an interview in a couple hours. I hope that goes well and if it does I expect to return to an Ossoff win.

Good luck to you and to Ossoff.

 

[whyamihere]

I kind of feel that in wasserman. Up? Good. Down? Good. Meat? GOOOOD

Look at Pennsylvania.

 

[TestOfTide]

I kind of feel that in wasserman. Up? Good. Down? Good. Meat? GOOOOD

It's not about whether or not turnout is up overall. It's about WHERE turnout is up and WHERE turnout is down.

This is important, because inspite people calling 2016 a low turnout election, it had around the same turnout as 2012 (2016 was 54.7% while 2012 was 54.9%). But what caused Trump to win where Romney lost was where turnout was up (republican areas) and where turnout was down (democratic areas).

 

[Plinko]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/877269770361597954

WSJ timeline is dead on.
AHCA this week, CBO next week early, vote the day after.

As expected. They don't want to give people any time to start flooding the phone banks once the CBO report hits.

I really, really look forward to democrats having every right to do this when their turn comes.

 

[smokeymicpot]

Paul Ryan, walks into the House SCIF, but denies he's meeting with Mueller

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/877278588147564550

 

[whyamihere]

@gdebenedetti
Rain's let up in parts of #GA06 but traffic is a disaster. In the wise words of BOTH candidates in the last 24h: "all comes down to turnout"

Granted, polls close in a little over an hour, so there's time, but. Traffic!

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

BUT THE RAIN

We registered a lot of ducks

 

[Macho Madness]

Granted, polls close in a little over an hour, so there's time, but. Traffic!

My analysis says that whoever gets the most votes when this thing is over, is gonna win.

 

[Autodidact]

My analysis says that whoever gets the most votes when this thing is over, is gonna win.

But the polls didn't say that. (((

 

[Macho Madness]

But the polls didn't say that. (((

I'll re-run the numbers but I bet it'll just come out the same.

 

[Greigor The Fellhand]

Paul Ryan, walks into the House SCIF, but denies he's meeting with Mueller

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/877278588147564550

 

[Aaron Strife]

My analysis says that whoever gets the most votes when this thing is over, is gonna win.

That's what they said about the presidential election

 

[Ogodei]

Topher Spiro tweets that the GOP has 7 nos and 3 undecideds.

No: Cruz, Lee, Paul, Murkowski, Sasse, Collins, Capito.

Undecided: Cassidy, Heller, Portman.

Cruz, Lee, and Portman are just wtf. They helped write the damn thing!

It might be a very smart move for Cruz to vote no because the bill is too liberal, though, it defends him from AHCA blowback from the left but he keeps street cred on the right as he voted no for the correct reason.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/20/15830316/clinton-sanders-issues-rigged

In other words, people vote emotionally more than anything.

We're so screwed.

 

[RustyNails]

I think some people here (mostly in OT) have a vested interest in Ossoff losing. They've convinced themselves that the world has permanently descended into misery and disappointment, and they can't even fathom a positive result because it would contradict their narrative.

There's only one guy. He's been passive aggressive in every Ga-6 thread/discussion.

 

[Fenderputty]

Topher Spiro tweets that the GOP has 7 nos and 3 undecideds.

No: Cruz, Lee, Paul, Murkowski, Sasse, Collins, Capito.

Undecided: Cassidy, Heller, Portman.

Cruz, Lee, and Portman are just wtf. They helped write the damn thing!

It might be a very smart move for Cruz to vote no because the bill is too liberal, though, it defends him from AHCA blowback from the left but he keeps street cred on the right as he voted no for the correct reason.

After the house bullshit, I trust none of this.

 

[TestOfTide]

Topher Spiro tweets that the GOP has 7 nos and 3 undecideds.

No: Cruz, Lee, Paul, Murkowski, Sasse, Collins, Capito.

Undecided: Cassidy, Heller, Portman.

Cruz, Lee, and Portman are just wtf. They helped write the damn thing!

It might be a very smart move for Cruz to vote no because the bill is too liberal, though, it defends him from AHCA blowback from the left but he keeps street cred on the right as he voted no for the correct reason.

Cruz, Lee, and Paul are just playing the role of the Senate equivalent to the HFC. They are threatening to vote against it as a way to keep Murkowski, Collins, Heller, etc. from being able to actually make the bill more moderate.

It's not a coincidence that it's three far right senators saying no, because that means they have just as much leverage as the moderates.

 

[Blader]

Granted, polls close in a little over an hour, so there's time, but. Traffic!

Why don't they just keep the polls open later then?

 

[Wilsongt]

I am almost wondering if Trump is narcissitic enough to reverse everything Obama did, and then start re-implementing it just so he can get the praise.

 

[whyamihere]

A little over an hour to go and Nate Cohn walks us through it.

@Nate_Cohn
Let's talk about what to expect, because I think there are a lot of misperceptions out there.

@Nate_Cohn
We expect a big turnout. I'd guess >250k, but it could go higher. We're starting high to be safe, but who knows.

@Nate_Cohn
I expect the results to be much more like a normal election, not something like Ossoff starting at 60% of the early vote like last time

@Nate_Cohn
Many Republicans who voted on election day turned out in early voting. And, Dems moved to *mail* which is reported separately and later

@Nate_Cohn
Fulton in-person early vote will be interesting to watch as a rough barometer. Big and ~representative. Pbly still biased D but not wildly

@Nate_Cohn
The mail vote is going to throw people off. It's quite D, reports late and it's tough to tell if it's in if you're not looking at right data

@Nate_Cohn
All of the analysis you've seen of the early vote lumps in person EV/Mail together! So the initial IPEV vote will not be as D as some expect

 

[Aaron Strife]

A little over an hour to go and Nate Cohn walks us through it.

old af

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Handel 51.5 - Ossoff 49.5

Seems to be a good prediction at the moment for me.

 

[Abinash117]

People talk about it all the time. It basically comes down to corporate interests having too much power. Passing bank reform without the bank lobby watering it down. Passing healthcare reform without the health insurance lobby getting in the way. Passing gun reforms without the NRA putting up walls. It's the general idea that our government is inefficient because it doesn't focus on what's best for the people and instead serves the elite.

And while these things probably lean towards democrats, I think it's something that appeals across party lines. Ask republicans and they'll tell you democrats are in the pockets of special interests. That was party of Trump's appeal -- this false idea that he was already rich so he wouldn't be in it for himself or his friends. It's not the whole story of this election or any election, but I do think it plays a big part -- especially with the big chunk of people that don't even vote. Yes, it'd be nice if they understood the game theory of the US election system and voted anyway -- but that's not something we can depend on.

I am aware of some of them. However, some of those really don't seem to me like Washington that needs to be changed. Rather, it is something that partisanship is preventing progress. You can't pass none of those things without a majority to supermajority of single party. Corporate interests is the least of the worries in that regard. If anything if those people are really concerned about that they would be voting out Republicans first and foremost since they are the ones that are the most sensitive to corporate interests( their WHOLE ideology is centered around it).


I think it is too simplistic to blame entirely on the lobbyists or mostly. The thing is some of those industries like healthcare industry have an invested interest of making sure that everything is going right for them. When it comes to negotiations they should be in the table and have a say, however, that doesn't mean a healthcare reform bill should be mostly benefiting them. To me at least, it shouldn't matter on how liberal or socialist a bill is. If it wreaks the industry and cost hundreds and thousands of jobs, wouldn't that be even more damaging?

By principle of a healthcare reform bill it should improve the lives of normal people, so even if the most establishment of Democrats got control over Congress I don't believe it will be remotely like the ACHA.

Besides I haven't heard an exactly solution to the issue. How exactly would you prevent lobbyists from influencing legislation? I know campaign finace reform is one, but even before Citizens United I'm sure lobbyists and corporations was influencing laws. Are we going to ban lobbyists? I think I never seen Bernie Sanders provided a solution and one of the things I really don't like is when high-level get into positions and not have a plan or strategy.

 

[whyamihere]

Handel 51.5 - Ossoff 49.5

Seems to be a good prediction at the moment for me.

Yes, we know.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/877269770361597954

WSJ timeline is dead on.
AHCA this week, CBO next week early, vote the day after.

Seems risky to vote deep in the middle of the news being that 30 million will be kicked off insurance

 

[Paches]

Handel 51.5 - Ossoff 49.5

Seems to be a good prediction at the moment for me.

If you take 1% from Handel and give it to Ossoff, they tie at 50.5.

Wait a second...

 

[Fenderputty]

Handel 51.5 - Ossoff 49.5

Seems to be a good prediction at the moment for me.

You've leveled upped your pessimism game since this morning.