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[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Pelosi has been the face of the Democrats in the House for like a decade now. I don't think there's anything wrong with suggesting that she has accrued a lot of media-driven baggage in that time and that changing up who represents the party every decade or so will likely chip away at the GOP's ability to destroy liberals by tying them to politicians that they have made unpopular by attrition.

Of course, if it's true that swing voters are dying, people's priors are set, and they will just justify whatever to themselves as a consequence of a person having a particular party affiliation next to their name, then the next face of the Dems in the House will accrue baggage far quicker.

 

[pigeon]

To be fair. I'm not going that route. I don't blame Pelosi at all. But the fact is that the right has turned her into their next pseudo-Hillary for now and if 2008 has taught us anything, it's that our best way to counter that is to just replace her with a charismatic new-blood leader early next year.

They did this to Obama also. Would you have recommended replacing him in 2012?

Pelosi has been the face of the Democrats in the House for like a decade now. I don't think there's anything wrong with suggesting that she has accrued a lot of media-driven baggage in that time and that changing up who represents the party every decade or so will likely chip away at the GOP's ability to destroy liberals by attrition.

Of course, if it's true that swing voters are dying, people's priors are set, and they will just justify whatever to themselves as a consequence of a person having a particular party affiliation next to their name, then the next face of the Dems in the House will accrue baggage far quicker.

The main thing that's wrong with suggesting that is that it's idiotic and based on zero evidence.

 

[Slizeezyc]

Regardless of Ossoff outcome, socialists/lefties lose more than they win, you'd think y'all would get used to taking Ls -- it's part of the gig friends. But ya gotta keep plugging.

 

[Box of Kittens]

If Ossoff loses (and it's too early to say he will) it will be a disappointing result but not one inconsistent with winning in 2018. I'm just getting tired of people rooting for losses because it validates their personal narratives (something we've already seen from the "other side" with KS-4 and MT-AL).

 

[Blader]

I think people are just tired of losing and feel the DNC / Dems aren't doing enough.

Tbh I think people here still see the value in tightening the margins in heavy R districts and are more just tired of your rampant pessimism on absolutely everything.

 

[thefro]

Can we trust Decision Desk?

Politico is saying in the 8 fully-counted precincts, Ossoff is up 2.3 versus the primary, Handel down 2.3

In fully reporting precincts on June 20, Republican Karen Handel has 48.6 precent of the vote, and Democrat Jon Ossoff has 51.4 percent of the vote. Handel is running 2.3 points behind where Republicans ran in those precincts in April. Ossoff is running 2.3 points ahead of where Democrats ran in those precincts in the primary.

 

[kirblar]

Okay, fair enough.

Blaming this on Pelosi is still incredibly dumb. Pelosi has no characteristics other than being the Minority Leader. Somebody is going to be the Minority Leader.

This isn't even, like, hypothetical. Harry Reid left being the Senate Majority Leader last year and was replaced by Chuck Schumer. Conservatives hated Harry Reid. Do they like Chuck Schumer?

For you young'ns at home, many of us blamed the crazy '90s GOP on the Clintons, leading to some of us going to Obama in part because of it.

It turned out that no, it didn't matter. They're just crazy assholes who will make anyone into a scapegoat.

This is why running Pelosi for President, like Hillary, would be bad. But she's not running for Pres.

 

[Plinko]

Okay, fair enough.

Blaming this on Pelosi is still incredibly dumb. Pelosi has no characteristics other than being the Minority Leader. Somebody is going to be the Minority Leader.

This isn't even, like, hypothetical. Harry Reid left being the Senate Majority Leader last year and was replaced by Chuck Schumer. Conservatives hated Harry Reid. Do they like Chuck Schumer?

I think only one person was actually blaming Pelosi for having any effect on this race.

For you young'ns at home, many of us blamed the crazy '90s GOP on the Clintons, leading to some of us going to Obama in part because of it.

It turned out that no, it didn't matter. They're just crazy assholes who will make anyone into a scapegoat.

This is why running Pelosi for President, like Hillary, would be bad. But she's not running for Pres.

But why running Warren in the primary may be a tactical move to draw attention and scrutiny away from other candidates.

 

[VendettaRed07]

I just think now is the time to replace pelosi has nothing to do with what republicans think but more because of her age and our parties current position.

If we had both house majorities and the White House right now like the GOP does.. then sure. Keep her.

But we have no power, and if the plan is to win in congress and ideally, have the majorities and win in 2020, now would be a good time for someone new to get some experience in before they actually have a more difficult job to do in the future. Pelosi will be like 83 in 2022. I don't know if we can rely on her effectively being in her position through that time.

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

Tbh I think people here still see the value in tightening the margins in heavy R districts and are more just tired of your rampant pessimism on absolutely everything.

Disastrous legislation isn't stopped with tighter margins that end in losses. There aren't points for 2nd place in this shit.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Disastrous legislation isn't stopped with tighter margins that end in losses. There aren't points for 2nd place in this shit.

Disastrous legislation isn't stopped by 1 seat in congress

 

[whyamihere]

@redistrict
Looking a bit better for Ossoff than a few mins ago. Via @Politico, he's ahead of his primary vote by 2.3% in completed precincts. #GA06

It's going to be very close.

 

[Y2Kev]

I can't tell if ossoff is losing or winning so I'll just shit up the thread with sexism. Have you seen Elizabeth waren's voice? Oh my god.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Disastrous legislation isn't stopped with tighter margins that end in losses. There aren't points for 2nd place in this shit.

Disastrous legislation also isn't stopped by a single House seat

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

They did this to Obama also. Would you have recommended replacing him in 2012?



The main thing that's wrong with suggesting that is that it's idiotic and based on zero evidence.

Given Dems are not particularly better-liked than the Repubs, according to the last polls I saw on the subject, I would say there is decent evidence that a change-up in party leadership, if only to bestow the "new car smell", is strategically sound.

 

[Plinko]

I can't tell if ossoff is losing or winning so I'll just shit up the thread with sexism. Have you seen Elizabeth waren's voice? Oh my god.

Where did this happen?

The main point has absolutely zero to do with gender and everything to do with old candidates with baggage in the party.

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

Disastrous legislation also isn't stopped by a single House seat

We know: we're reminded of that every time a Democrat loses one in a GOP-controlled Congress.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

I just think now is the time to replace pelosi has nothing to do with what republicans think but more because of her age and our parties current position.

If we had both house majorities and the White House right now like the GOP does.. then sure. Keep her.

But we have no power, and if the plan is to win in congress and ideal, have the majorities and win in 2020, now would be a good time for someone new to get some experience in before they actually have a more difficult job to do in the future. Pelosi will be like 83 in 2022. I don't know if we can rely on her effectively being in her position through that time.

at the very least it would make sense to groom a successor, unless people are looking forward to Hoyer

I think keeping her on when we get the next majority makes sense because she's good at her job, but she should probably step down after we lose it. Assuming we get a majority soon, of course.

 

[Ernest]

Now? Maybe.

Until this year? I'll need receipts. Because if the right this whole time has been better clued in to liberal politics than the left itself, then we have bigger problems.

Here, on the campaign trail with McCain 8 years ago, making a documentary, Republicans were were booing Pelosi's daughter because of her last name. That's hate that doesn't just run deep, but one that's been instilled by years of Limbaugh, Hannity, et all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO2bi9QGrfk

 

[Blader]

Disastrous legislation isn't stopped with tighter margins that end in losses. There aren't points for 2nd place in this shit.

It won't be stopped by Jon Ossoff either.

(The tighter margins are about winning closer races in 2018. Not about making ourselves feel better about a loss this year.)

 

[Valdfellgar]

I can't tell if ossoff is losing or winning so I'll just shit up the thread with sexism. Have you seen Elizabeth waren's voice? Oh my god.

You looking at a Spectrogram of it or something?

 

[whyamihere]

*pips up a bit*

It seems that this might be closer than expected because Handle is eating into her EDay vote by decently large margin

 

[balladofwindfishes]

It's going to be very close.

Nate

Politico now has Ossoff running a little ahead of where he’d need to be in fully reported precincts (although there are very few precincts fully in).

He also thinks betting markets are way too overconfident having Handel at 82% to win

 

[Box of Kittens]

I can't tell if ossoff is losing or winning so I'll just shit up the thread with sexism. Have you seen Elizabeth waren's voice? Oh my god.

Shrill. Maybe it would help if she smiled more.

 

[Random Human]

Nate


He also thinks betting markets are way too overconfident having Handel at 82% to win

*deep breath*

 

[pigeon]

Where did this happen?

The main point has absolutely zero to do with gender and everything to do with old candidates with baggage in the party.

Sure, that's why so many people complained so much about Harry Reid needing to retire or are now saying that Chuck Schumer just isn't a good leader.

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

I can't tell if ossoff is losing or winning so I'll just shit up the thread with sexism. Have you seen Elizabeth waren's voice? Oh my god.

Schrodinger's Ossoff.

 

[Plinko]

Sure, that's why so many people complained so much about Harry Reid needing to retire or are now saying that Chuck Schumer just isn't a good leader.

Did you miss the part where I used Biden as an example? There are many great women who could lead this party--Harris, Gillibrand, Murray, etc. It isn't sexism in the least.

 

[TestOfTide]

They did this to Obama also. Would you have recommended replacing him in 2012?

Correction: They TRIED this to Obama, but it didn't really work.

That's the thing about Obama. Because he took the GOP by surprise, the GOP was never really able to FIRMLY get more than just the hardcore fanbase to truly hate him like they were able to get 60% of voters to hate Hillary or Pelosi. Sure there would be times in which the republicans were all fired up to vote in the midterms while the democrats arrogantly didn't vote in midterms, but overall the GOP was never able to get that many people to really hate Obama the way the hardcore republicans do.

Like, Ironically, too much experience can be a bad thing these days when running for president. We are better off just checking off most the experience box through the VP part of the ticket.

That's why I'm for something like a Harris/Franken ticket or a Gillibrand/Franken ticket with Warren running in the primaries for the sole purpose of tricking the GOP into wasting resources attacking Warren.

 

[mo60]

I think Ossoff winning and Norman barely winning would be really good for democrats tonight.

 

[Aaron Strife]

2.3% ahead would give him the win. Hope it lasts.

 

[Officerrob]

I think Ossoff winning and Norman barely winning would be really good for democrats tonight.

It would be amazing

 

[Poodlestrike]

Sure, that's why so many people complained so much about Harry Reid needing to retire or are now saying that Chuck Schumer just isn't a good leader.

I'm still not totally sold on the "Pelosi must go" track, just concerned it might be something we need to look at, but I don't think it's sexist here? The initial attacks were sexist. The reasons why they landed as well as they did were definitely sexist. The concern that they might have landed too well to be overcome isn't.

Is there any sign that Reid was as effectively demonized as Pelosi?

 

[Plinko]

I think Ossoff winning and Norman barely winning would be really good for democrats tonight.

That would be wonderful, actually. I'd be ecstatic.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Ossoff down by 1.4% and closing the gap, Parnell holding at down by 3%.

 

[Blader]

I think Ossoff winning and Norman barely winning would be really good for democrats tonight.

Lol, yes, two wins are better than two losses!

 

[Poodlestrike]

Lol, yes, two wins are better than two losses!

Norman is the Republican.

Parnell holding at -3 would be a crazy result if we also pick up Ossoff. C'mon, c'mon...

 

[kirblar]

Correction: They TRIED this to Obama, but it didn't really work.

That's the thing about Obama. Because he took the GOP by surprise, the GOP was never really able to FIRMLY get more than just the hardcore fanbase to truly hate him like they were able to get 60% of voters to hate Hillary or Pelosi. Sure there would be times in which the republicans were all fired up to vote in the midterms while the democrats arrogantly didn't vote in midterms, but overall the GOP was never able to get that many people to really hate Obama the way the hardcore republicans do.

(This is why Gillibrand has her head down despite doing everything possible to signal that she's planning a run.)

If she gets the nom, it becomes a test of how much the "new" factor can overcome the "massive sexist bullshit" factor.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Sure, that's why so many people complained so much about Harry Reid needing to retire or are now saying that Chuck Schumer just isn't a good leader.

Uh I remember complaining about Reid a shit-ton by the end of his run, and Schumer is complained about as being a poor leader on a regular basis. Pelosi is best-known of all of them because she is the most competent and therefore most in need of damaging by conservative media, but I would say all three receive/received complaints relative to their level of notoriety.

 

[royalan]

Sure, that's why so many people complained so much about Harry Reid needing to retire or are now saying that Chuck Schumer just isn't a good leader.

Exactly. And Reid actually played dirty!

That just made him "badass" to the left. Something even I'm guilty of.

 

[thefro]

2.3% ahead would give him the win. Hope it lasts.

Up to Handel 2.5% behind, Ossoff 2.4% ahead after 6 more came in.

Of course I guess turnout matters too.

 

[whyamihere]

I actually agree with Dave Wasserman!

@redistrict
Re #GA06: totally confused at the moment. I don't often feel that way on Election nights.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

If Parnell loses South Carolina by 4 or 5 points, lots of Democratic activists will point fingers at the party’s hierarchy for not getting more involved (cough, cough Kansas 4). But it’s possible that Parnell is doing well tonight because he wasn’t hyped, not despite it.

Pls pay attention to this

 

[neurosisxeno]

Reading the FB comments on the 538 page is depressing. I want to scream at some of these people for being impressively ignorant...

 

[mo60]

It looks like Norman is going to win SC-5 by around 5 points right now.

 

[Grexeno]

Pls pay attention to this

Parnell definitely wouldn't do as well if people actually knew the special election was happening.

 

[Barzul]

It looks like Norman is going to win SC-5 by around 5 points right now.

How much of the vote is in? That'd be nuts?! 25 point swing right?

 

[Y2Kev]

What, uh, is actually going on? Seems too early to tell. Do we know if vote by mail is in these figures?

 

[kirblar]

Exactly. And Reid actually played dirty!

That just made him "badass" to the left. Something even I'm guilty of.

The grand irony is that he didn't play dirty enough. (killing the fillibuster)

 

[whyamihere]

What, uh, is actually going on? Seems too early to tell. Do we know if vote by mail is in these figures?

Nope.