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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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balladofwindfishes

Member
I kind of like this Politico model of only showing 100% turned in areas. It removes the crazy bickering and speculation about early vote totals, or who turns in first, or whatever.

Nate seems to agree
I think waiting for fully reported precincts is a good, safe way to do things. That’s sort of our philosophy when we do election-night forecasting. The tradeoff, though, is that you’re going to be slower that way than if you’re willing to make inferences and assumptions from partial returns. So I’m looking at an assortment of data sources.
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B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Shao Kahn on the Lawn said:
Disastrous legislation isn't stopped with tighter margins that end in losses. There aren't points for 2nd place in this shit.
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The point is that what really matters is 2018 when we'll actually have a chance to take the House and stop the GOP agenda dead in its tracks. These special elections have mostly been occurring in strongly Republican districts. The swings we're seeing right now are consistent with an environment where Dems take the House. Yes, you'd always rather win than lose, but it's not as simple as every win being a good result and every loss being a bad result.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
The point is that what really matters is 2018 when we'll actually have a chance to take the House and stop the GOP agenda dead in its tracks. These special elections have mostly been occurring in strongly Republican districts. The swings we're seeing right now are consistent with an environment where Dems take the House. Yes, you'd always rather win than lose, but it's not as simple as every win being a good result and every loss being a bad result.
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I try to keep reminding myself of that but it's so damn hard to think of it in those terms. R's have won on nearly every level for so long now it's hard to shake the impression that they'll just keep doing so.
 
Z

Zolo

Member
VendettaRed07 said:
So he's doing better because he wasn't given a ton of money like Ossoff was

i have a hard time believing being bankrolled with 23 million would have been bad for him

If so then why spend money on these races at all
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I think it's more about increased turnout in traditionally Republican districts that may actually have a higher amount of Republicans than fired-up Democrats.
 
T

tuxfool

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
So he's doing better because he wasn't given a ton of money like Ossoff was

i have a hard time believing being bankrolled with 23 million would have been bad for him

If so then why spend money on these races at all
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Money good, attention bad.

Unfortunately these things are often interlinked.
 
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Box of Kittens

Banned
I think there's something to the idea that we should be wary at the prospect of nationalizing races in places like Kansas and South Carolina. That having been said, I also think there's something to the idea that the DCCC should have invested more in those races.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Box of Kittens said:
I think there's something to the idea that we should be wary at the prospect of nationalizing races in places like Kansas and South Carolina. That having been said, I also think there's something to the idea that the DCCC should have invested more in those races.
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Both can be true.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Box of Kittens said:
I think there's something to the idea that we should be wary at the prospect of nationalizing races in places like Kansas and South Carolina. That having been said, I also think there's something to the idea that the DCCC should have invested more in those races.
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Again, the issue- we didn't nationalize it. The GOP and Fox News did.

We're actively trying not to do that. But we can't fight that shit.
 
T

tuxfool

Banned
OVrSmVa.png
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
I think there's something to the idea that we should be wary at the prospect of nationalizing races in places like Kansas and South Carolina. That having been said, I also think there's something to the idea that the DCCC should have invested more in those races.
Click to expand...

This won't be as much of a problem in 2018 because even the GOP only has so much media bandwidth. They can't nationalize EVERY race through their most visible platforms (namely, Fox). They can only do so much to make it about Local R vs National D.

Though now I think of the Sinclair buyouts and get kinda terrified.
 
T

thefro

Member
Politico tracker still looking good for Ossoff to squeak it out by a point or two

We've got nearly a quarter of the precincts in, so pretty decent sample size.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
thefro said:
Politico tracker still looking good for Ossoff to squeak it out by a point or two

We've got nearly a quarter of the precincts in, so pretty decent sample size.
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OTOH Upshot forecast has Handel winning and is generally moving in her direction.

Either way, it looks close.
 
Z

Zolo

Member
50% reporting in according to 538 with Handel having a 5% lead. Unless the rest of the areas are majorly democratic, I don't see Ossoff overcoming that.
 
R

royalan

Member
If Handel wins this, I'm going to attribute it to the same thing I did the night of that debate.

When Republicans sense there might be a loss, they go DEFCON 1. Democrats just don't.

We throw money at the problem, but we continue to back politicians who act like they have no actual skin in the game and campaign that way.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Okay, I couldn't resist looking at the SC race. With 93% reported, it looks like Parnell will only lose 52-48 at most. Did ANYONE predict such a close race there?
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
I think that the big takeaway here is that it's too early to have big effects due to Trump et al. Republicans are still committed. They might not like the man, but they'll still vote for the party, come hell or (literally) high water. They won't vote AS MUCH, but they'll still vote, and in heavily rigged districts... that's enough. It won't be enough to keep the House in 2018, but it'll almost certainly be enough to keep the Senate.

Also, there's not really any way to attribute this one to the candidate or the party screwing up. DCCC went all out here, and Ossoff ran a great campaign. This one is clearly a failure of the voters, without any real excuses this time.

dakini said:
Is a 2 pt margin win for Handel within the margin of error from the polls we saw before the election?
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Barely.
 
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