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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

AniHawk

Member
oh hey

forgot about rand

it's up again.

51.15-44.24

6.91 lead, about another 0.56 over yesterday. it's been literally seven days of gains for obama, 5.31 points overall.
 
H

HyperionX

Member
AniHawk said:
oh hey

forgot about rand

it's up again.

51.15-44.24

6.91 lead, about another 0.56 over yesterday. it's been literally seven days of gains for obama, 5.31 points overall.
Click to expand...

That would correspond to something like 350+ EV. It would be like the reverse gallup/rasmussen now.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
SmokeMaxX said:
NC's polling is so weird. Within a one week period, it goes from +3 Obama to +1 R, +8 R, Tied, +6 R.
Click to expand...
NC was also a state that polling was off on in 2008. That's no guarantee of anything this time, but I'm perfectly content waiting for the actual vote tallies.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
i am expecting NC to shock me completely one way or the other.

whether that means a bush-level win by romney or another 2008-style last-second win by obama is wholly up for debate.

now if i'm expecting to get shocked, does that mean i'll only get shocked if i don't get shocked?
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Hitokage said:
NC was also a state that polling was off on in 2008. That's no guarantee of anything this time, but I'm perfectly content waiting for the actual vote tallies.
Click to expand...

barring +3 obama and +7 mccain outliers, there was 1-2 points either way for nc in the final week, with stronger polling for obama in the rest of the polling period. tpm and rcp called it for mccain by slim margins, but the 538 model was 0.1% away from the actual result in obama's favor.

right now nc is a projected 3-point win for romney in the 538 model. things might change, but it doesn't look very likely.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
AniHawk said:
barring +3 obama and +7 mccain outliers, there was 1-2 points either way for nc in the final week, with stronger polling for obama in the rest of the polling period. tpm and rcp called it for mccain by slim margins, but the 538 model was 0.1% away from the actual result in obama's favor.

right now nc is a projected 3-point win for romney in the 538 model. things might change, but it doesn't look very likely.
Click to expand...

Unless there is a huge influx of Obama voters due to NC's same day registration law, its going to Romney. Problem Obama will have in NC is conservative Dems voting for Romney.
 
Thaedolus

Thaedolus

Member
Rocket Scientist said:
No offense but polls closing at 6 fucking pm is retarded. What the fuck is the reasoning for this? ''Oh people just got out of work... CLOSE 'R UP!''?
Click to expand...

Seems like a fantastically retarded policy blatantly designed to hurt the working man's chance to go vote. That said, I was happily surprised that the deep red state of Utah allows people to vote up to two weeks early at any polling location in their county. I wouldn't have a problem getting adjusting my work schedule to vote on election day, but I voted last Thursday when I found it convenient. No lines, just walked it, walked out.
 
C

Chumly

Member
FyreWulff said:
Maybe, but all the hispanic names were marked as not voting in 2004 and all the white names are marked as yes.. even though half the people weren't even there in 2004. and one of the 'yes' voters moved out of Omaha in 2006. :lol

I'd view it as more altruistic if it just said "Hey, we noticed you only voted one out of two years. Go vote". Putting your neighbors full names and voting record on there? Saying they'll send another one out after the election?

If they intended to get those people to go vote by saying "we're gonna send another mailer after 2012", they're sending people voting for Obama to the polls. Looking at their website.. I don't think they want to do that. I'm not reading good intentions from that mailer.



Omaha.gif


Mailer recieved in bottom far right side of map. And remember that Omaha was responsible for splitting Nebraska's electoral vote, giving Obama 1 electoral vote, in 2008. This mailer is just all kinds of backfire :lol
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Frankly coming from "Americans for limited government" I almost think its more for voter fraud. Its like they are asking are these neighbors legit? Because they have to know they are sending that to the heart of south O and the prevailing theme is that conservatives think Minorities commit voter fraud.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Mario said:
People can easily vote during work hours if they just get their secretary to hold their calls for a while.
Click to expand...
lol! Hey Mitt!
Hitokage said:
Ohio is at 6:30 local time. It's because certain people in state government want to be cute.
Click to expand...
This is why you need a federal government imposing a law to stay open until 9. There is simply no justifiable reason to close at 6/630/7. People have work, they need to pick up kids, they need to make dinner they need to take care of their responsibilities. I'm in Holland and we always vote around 8 ish after dinner and everything is take caren of and before you sit down on your couch to relax for the night. Polls close around 9 I believe.
Thaedolus said:
Seems like a fantastically retarded policy blatantly designed to hurt the working man's chance to go vote. That said, I was happily surprised that the deep red state of Utah allows people to vote up to two weeks early at any polling location in their county. I wouldn't have a problem getting adjusting my work schedule to vote on election day, but I voted last Thursday when I found it convenient. No lines, just walked it, walked out.
Click to expand...
There is simply no other reason than this.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I am standing right in the middle of Vote County in PA and it looks like Sandy just blew all the poor people into the other blue states where they are now official residents. Consider this state flipped red.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I am standing right in the middle of Vote County in PA and it looks like Sandy just blew all the poor people into the other blue states where they are now official residents. Consider this state flipped red.
Click to expand...

I live in Tobyhanna PA, and I can tell you that the Army Depot here is shooting Democrats on sight for fear that they'll feel so entitled thanks to their liberal socialist mindset that they'll loot all the supplies for the storm and leave none for real, hardworking Americans
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
im in nj, and the storm has ruined our access to supermarkets. as a result, chris christie has been feasting upon democratic voters to satiate his undying hunger. looks like we may go red this year. :(
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Frank the Great said:
im in nj, and the storm has ruined our access to supermarkets. as a result, chris christie has been feasting upon democratic voters to satiate his undying hunger. looks like we may go red this year. :(
Click to expand...

i need to know this for my own presence of mind:

Can you New Jersey folk contain Christie's insatiable hunger? Can you do it? Because if he breaks out, the entire Eastern Seaboard could be devastated...
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Diablos said:
Don't even bother, they won't believe its potential until it finally occurs.
Click to expand...
Terrible. This thread's making jokes, but they're ignoring the real consequences of this storm. It's a big threat, and it's only getting worse. Didn't they see that gigantic map you posted yesterday? Epic smh.
jamesinclair said:
Did Obama under-fund NOAA, causing them to not be able to properly model Sandy?
Click to expand...
Actually, we've not adequately invested in weather satellites. It should not inhibit our forecasts for Sandy. But in the forthcoming years, the neglect could severely degrade our weather forecasts. Surprise, America fails to invest in its aging infrastructure.

U.S. Satellite Plans Falter, Imperiling Data on Storms
By JOHN H. CUSHMAN Jr.
Published: October 26, 2012

WASHINGTON — The United States is facing a year or more without crucial satellites that provide invaluable data for predicting storm tracks, a result of years of mismanagement, lack of financing and delays in launching replacements, according to several recent official reviews.

The looming gap in satellite coverage, which some experts view as almost certain within the next few years, could result in shaky forecasts about storms like Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to hit the East Coast early next week.

NYTIMES​
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Kasich apparently went on Press the Meat and said "I don't know anybody who didn't' think the auto industry needed saved."

I'm very annoyed that the media is kind of giving Romney a free pass on his defensive, weaseling "ordered bankruptcy" cop-out in regards to his op-ed about the auto bailout. There was a sum total of one lender with the required operating liquidity for debtor-in-possession financing at that point in 2008/2009- the Federal government.

The only alternative was liquidation and everyone knew it. The intellectual dishonesty by the campaign is stunning.
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Fragamemnon said:
Kasich apparently went on Press the Meat and said "I don't know anybody who didn't' think the auto industry needed saved."

I'm very annoyed that the media is kind of giving Romney a free pass on his defensive, weaseling "ordered bankruptcy" cop-out in regards to his op-ed about the auto bailout. There was a sum total of one lender with the required operating liquidity for debtor-in-possession financing at that point in 2008/2009- the Federal government.

The only alternative was liquidation and everyone knew it. The intellectual dishonesty by the campaign is stunning.
Click to expand...
But...

He LOVES cars.

And no son EVER messes with what his father was involved in!
 
M

markatisu

Member
Diablos said:
I'm not crying for disaster but the constant downplaying of its impact is ridiculous.

Let's see here:

-Governors from North Carolina to Connecticut declaring states of emergency
-GT Gov warning that this may be the worst major storm of its kind in the region over the past 30 years
-Delaware ordering mandatory evacuations for coastal communities by 8pm today
-Potential subway flooding may occur in NYC; Gov Cuomo preparing to shut down subways, buses and suburban trains by today, "pending final decision" (a surge one foot higher than Irene would have really done a number on lower Manhattan)
-Beach towns on Jersey Shore are being issued voluntary evacuation plans
-Atlantic City Casinos preparing contingency closing plans
-Utility officials warning to be prepared for several days without power (at least, I would assume)
-Airlines telling customers that cancellations are likely

This isn't called crying for disaster, it's called coming to terms that there is cause for real concern over this storm. What's more is that we've never seen something quite like it.
Click to expand...

Do you even list on the Coast? I lived in Maryland for 21 years and most of that is normal. Not to mention half of that happens when a winter storm that produces about 2-3" of snow hits MD/DC/Northern VA

You better not EVER move to the Midwest (Tornado Alley), the Far West (Earthquakes and Fires) or the Beach(Hurricanes/Tropical Storms) because you would literally shit your pants and have a heart attack at the first sign of bad weather
 
D

Drakeon

Member
I don't understand the significance of national polls. Why even continue to do them as often as the polling firms do? I guess the media cares, but it's completely irrelevant to who's going to win the presidency.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Drakeon said:
I don't understand the significance of national polls. Why even continue to do them as often as the polling firms do? I guess the media cares, but it's completely irrelevant to who's going to win the presidency.
Click to expand...

Because otherwise it looks really horrible for Romney, can't push that narrative of a horserace when it looks like Romney needs a miracle to even get close to 270
 
H

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Come to think of it, one Romney defense against criticisms of his attitudes towards women was an emphatic declaration of love for women.

Perhaps being loved by Romney isn't a good thing.
 
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