Republicans have historically had an edge in Florida's vote-by-mail program, but Bird said Democrats have been able to cut the GOP lead to a much smaller margin.
At the same point in 2008, 257,000 more Republicans than Democrats had early voted. This year, it’s just 33,500 more. “In a state President Obama won by nearly 240,000 votes, that's a 223,500-vote swing even the dizziest Republican can't spin away,” Bird wrote. Democrats have also cut Republicans’ absentee ballot advantage in half.
All of that, added to state’s demographic shifts – 300,000 new Hispanic voters, 100,000 African American and Caribbean American voters – overwhelmingly favor Democrats. Just 10 percent of the new Hispanic voters have registered as Republicans. In all, the Obama campaign expects minority voters to make up more than 30 percent of the Florida electorate, up from 28 percent in 2008.
