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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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You don't even realize how elections work, neighboring states benefit from visits and advertising. Its why you advertise in MN to reach WI, for example.

You think PA is huge, when you the Midwest were 3-4hrs distance is normal its a different way of thinking. If it were really in trouble Obama himself not Biden would be there.

If you're not from PA, you may not realize how the media markets work. how many "hours" it takes to get across the state isn't the point (and for the record, it's about 5 hours in Good traffic) but how the media coverage is segmented.

The philadelphia media market is incredibly expensive, since it covers the southern half of jersey and all of delaware. As such, as an eastern PA resident you will never actually see any advertising or coverage directed at the middle or western half of the state, period. Philadelphia itself is so ridiculous that local council and mayoral politics are considered more important than state level politics- the mayoral election is more important than the governor or senate races here, much less the state house and senate. Ohio may as well be on the west coast, as often as you hear about anything happening there.

The pittsburgh market (which bleeds into ohio) is a completely separate entity. Visits and events that happen there are rarely if ever mentioned on the eastern half of the state.

On top of that, the harrisburg and central PA market is covered by some stations that are in the washington DC metro area, so news and events which happen on the eastern and western half of the state compete for coverage with events going on in the capitol.

Comparing it to a big midwestern state where there isn't shit going in is lunacy.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Look closer, Obama can lose Virginia, PA, Maryland, new jersey and deleware and still win.

But if NH shifts, its all over.

I know, but I think the idea he loses PA is crazy talk.
 

Bowdz

Member
Has this been posted yet?

McCain: Libya worst cover-up I've seen

http://www.politico.com/blogs/polit...coverup-ive-seen-in-my-life-147506.html?hp=f3

Politico said:
Sen. John McCain said Sunday he was sure President Barack Obama would show leadership “in fine fashion” in response to Hurricane Sandy, but said his handling of the deadly Libya consulate attack was the worst “cover-up or incompetence” he had ever seen.

“This tragedy turned into a debacle and massive cover-up or massive incompetence in Libya is having an impact on the voters because of their view of the commander in chief,” the Arizona Republican said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“It is now the worst cover-up or incompetence I have ever observed in my life. ...” said McCain, Obama's 2008 presidential rival. "Somebody the other day said to me, 'Well, this is as bad as Watergate.' Nobody died in Watergate."


McCain and other Republicans, including GOP National Chairman Reince Priebus and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, pounced on the Obama administration during the Sunday talk shows after news reports came out over the weekend showing discrepancies between the White House and Defense Department over why reinforcements weren't sent to Libya after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Beghazi.

The attack killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said last week it was too dangerous to send troops into Libya after the U.S. compound came under attack. But White House officials said they had not denied requests from Americans in Benghazi for backup.

"Why after a cry for help to Leon Panetta and after the president gave a directive to protect those people … Panetta now claims he told the person to stand down," Priebus said on CNN's "State of the Union."

"Either the president didn’t give the directive or the president isn’t being truthful or perhaps Leon Panetta acted as commander in chief."
 

Diablos

Member
If you're not from PA, you may not realize how the media markets work. how many "hours" it takes to get across the state isn't the point (and for the record, it's about 5 hours in Good traffic) but how the media coverage is segmented.

The philadelphia media market is incredibly expensive, since it covers the southern half of jersey and all of delaware. As such, as an eastern PA resident you will never actually see any advertising or coverage directed at the middle or western half of the state, period. Philadelphia itself is so ridiculous that local council and mayoral politics are considered more important than state level politics- the mayoral election is more important than the governor or senate races here, much less the state house and senate. Ohio may as well be on the west coast, as often as you hear about anything happening there.

The pittsburgh market (which bleeds into ohio) is a completely separate entity. Visits and events that happen there are rarely if ever mentioned on the eastern half of the state.

On top of that, the harrisburg and central PA market is covered by some stations that are in the washington DC metro area, so news and events which happen on the eastern and western half of the state compete for coverage with events going on in the capitol.

Comparing it to a big midwestern state where there isn't shit going in is lunacy.
Yep. Totally different market. The gap between Eastern and Western Pennsylvanians seems so huge. And in the center you have the state government and a whole lot of nothing else, lol.

But what do we know? I'm glad you took the time to explain it though.
 

gcubed

Member
My "bubble"? Central PA is a bubble. Pittsburgh and a lot of the surrounding suburbs are actually nice. Allegheny County is a good place to live. Cost of living is great but you aren't out in the sticks (unless you want to be).

i read wrong, i thought you said YOU were in Lackawanna county. I grew up in Carbon. Thats a bubble

A Pittsburgh visit would make more sense than Scranton for the purposes of getting the attention of Ohio voters.

I didn't say Biden was there because of campaign woes. I was simply pointing out that Scranton is far away from Ohio.


the story didn't say he was in Scranton. The story said "scranton native, Joe Biden, visits PA"
 
A week. A week after 9/11 people were back to their daily routine.

I can imagine bad PR potentially, but I can't see that many people having problems getting out voting.

Did 9/11 render the subway unusable, the roads impassible, the electricity unelectric and so forth?

Id start watching NBC's Revolution for a preview of what next week might be like.
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Umm... Scranton isn't anywhere near the Ohio border dude. It's in eastern PA, below NY (Lackawanna County). I think people forget about how big PA is.

oxnWU.png


My county (Allegheny, where Pittsburgh is) has some "overlap" with OH voters since it's pretty close to the border. Also isolated in a sea of red counties.

Also, just reminding everyone, if Sandy were to land near NJ/Eastern PA it would hit all those blue counties you see in the lower right. Those counties deliver for Dems every time.

It's thirty minutes from Ohio by plane.
 

Duffyside

Banned
ok guys, CONTEST TIME

i want people to make an electoral map for Nov 6. Use 270towin to guide you (I'll save links; no changing links after October 31). Then, in the same post, I want a popular vote margin. For "in case of tie" purposes, I also want everyone to guess the time Virginia will be called for either candidate.


The winner will get a 20 dollar gift on Steam of their choice.

Submissions over on the last day of October 2012.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VKr

Bams: 281 RomCom: 257

There will be a .4 point difference in the PV in Willard's favor.

VA called at 11:30 ET.
 
It's a landslide victory, I didn't bother to include it.

But then, yes:

Manchin (WV)
Gillibrand (NY)
Whitehouse (RI)
Klobuchar (WI)
Mendez (NJ)
Cantwell (WA)
Fienstein (CA)
Stabenow (MI)
Carden (MD)
Carper (DE)
King (ME) - I
Sanders (VT) - I
Heinrich (NM)
Hinoro (HI)

While:

Corker (TN)
Cruz (TX)
Wicker (MS)
Barrasso (WY)
Hatch (UT)

Gay marriage wins in:

Maine
Washington

Loses in:
Maryland
Minnesota (Amendment passes)

Good guys get 2 wins for the first time. GAF posters blame blacks, bans happen.
Only way that amendment passes here in MN is if the wording confuses people

At least that's what I hope the reason will be if it gets passed
 
Did 9/11 render the subway unusable, the roads impassible, the electricity unelectric and so forth?

Id start watching NBC's Revolution for a preview of what next week might be like.

No storm in living memory has done any of that, or even come close to it- INCLUDING "Snowmageddon." Hell, there was a storm back when I was in high school that deposited a layer of solid ice an inch thick over *everything*.

That's it. I'm being trolled. this is the only way someone could be this obtuse about a storm.
 

kingkitty

Member
Romney: 359, Obama: 179

Popular vote: Romney plus 7

Virginia called at 8:00 pm.

Here's a wildcard maverick prediction. Some here are probably basing their maps on Nate Silver's analysis. I'm basing my map on Unskewed's. Gotta go big.

I can already taste that 20 dollar gift card.
Might lose it's luster quickly over the fact that Romney just because president in a landslide, and that the conservatives were right the whole time.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Ghaleon, FoxNews called Virginia for Obama at 10:55PM(EST) and CNN called it at 10:58PM. Not sure when MSNBC called it...
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Only way that amendment passes here in MN is if the wording confuses people

At least that's what I hope the reason will be if it gets passed

I hope it doesn't pass. The good thing is that anyone who doesn't vote is a no, but I have no idea. The polling is too close to inspire confidence.

Though, this close to Prop 8 it looked like we would win, besides one or two polls. So I'm hopeful this time. A 4-0 win would be unbelievable.
 
McCain has been acting like a child all week. since November 2008.

This is not a new thing. Obama has had to dress him down in public and remind him that "the campaign is over" at LEAST once.

Who do you think plays McCain in the inevitable Obama movie? I think clint eastwood can do a pretty convincing "bitter, salty old man" routine.
 

Bowdz

Member
More pathetic attempts to make this bigger than it is.

Seriously. The degree with which the right/Fox News are trying to make this into an issue is staggering. Fox News has been calling it "The Libya Scandal" for weeks now despite the fact that every criticism they try to raise has been refuted by the record. Obama was apologizing to Islamic extremists in Egypt! (Except he didn't). Multiple security requests were made and denied by Obama! (Requests were made for Tripoli security not to mention that Embassy security was cut some $300 million by last House budget). His story was constantly changing! (Always prefaced statements with "To the best of our knowledge..." or "This is an ongoing investigation, but..."). The White House KNEW there was no protest right away and have been LYING! (CIA memo and Patraeus' briefing right after the attack confirm the official CIA reports thought there was a spontaneous protest). Requests for reinforcements were denied by Obama himself! (Panetta reiterated that you do not go into a situation without a good picture of the situation on the ground, which they didn't have at the time).

Rest assured this will continued long after Obama gets reelected.
 

pigeon

Banned
Romney: 359, Obama: 179

Popular vote: Romney plus 7

Virginia called at 8:00 pm.

Here's a wildcard maverick prediction. Some here are probably basing their maps on Nate Silver's analysis. I'm basing my map on Unskewed's. Gotta go big.

I can already taste that 20 dollar gift card.
Might lose it's luster quickly over the fact that Romney just because president in a landslide, and that the conservatives were right the whole time.

You bastard. This is really going to complicate my spreadsheet.
 
Interesting model that has Obama at 332 as of right now
http://blogs.middlebury.edu/preside...-linzer-still-sees-obama-as-a-heavy-favorite/
Note that Drew makes several assumptions in his model. First, he makes no effort to adjust for the “house effects” of individual polls in the belief that in the closest states that are polled most frequently, polling biases will largely cancel out. Second, he essentially assumes that the “undecideds” will break in rough proportion to the distribution of the vote, as indicated by the polls, in each state. Third, since he is interested in forecasting the Electoral College vote, he pays no attention to national tracking polls.
 

kingkitty

Member
Compiled from the carefully considered projections of the incisive and insightful PoliGAF posters to give the most accurate view of the upcoming election.

heh heh heh.

mine's a maverick outlier, you can skip over it~

but my prediction still stands for the amirox $20 steam gift contest bonanza
 
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