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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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A few friends of me in the states told me its basically about who owns the most news cicles and news from a week or two is burried in to other news.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You underestimate old people and their desire to vote.
http://thinkprogress.org/economy/20...to-bailout-ad-tells-four-myths-in-30-seconds/
Most dishonest ad of the campaign so far? Shame on Mitt Romney and Politifact for assisting him
Most dishonest ad of the campaign so far? Shame on Mitt Romney and Politifact for assisting him
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I'm hoping that Florida trends back to tossup in the 538 forecast. With the ground game and early voting advantage, Obama may have a chance to win it. Unfortunately, with ten days to the election, I'm not prepared to assume that it's going to tighten. Out of VA, CO, and FL, Florida has remained the most intransigent, and I think Romney pulls it out narrowly. I hope I'm wrong.
Not a defense but Economist isn't weekly. Also not sure what narrative push there is to be had for many of their stories which are often about pretty obscure global events and politics. Calling Economist "high school" seems like a stretch.
... wtf
Man Romney's ads and entire campaign have been beyond the pale with telling the truth. Good god if this guy gets elected ....
if I did I don't know if I'd be able to keep up with all the submissions, I don't have THAT much time for this
Plus I think it's kind of nice to open this primarily to PoliGAF regulars who make this place so much fun
It seems like that's about the consensus though from what I saw it seemed a few people (me included) have Virginia going for Romney. But otherwise, same map.
if I did I don't know if I'd be able to keep up with all the submissions, I don't have THAT much time for this
Plus I think it's kind of nice to open this primarily to PoliGAF regulars who make this place so much fun
You could make the point that there is no commentary allowed in the threads (come to polligaf to chat). Just post your submission and leave. It won't be that many, trust me
speculawyer
Member
WHAT THE FUCK?
1) So, 40+ years after all the GOP whined about Kennedy having his policies dictated by the Pope, the GOP has decided to have their policies dictated by the Pope.
2) Or religious fundamentalists. Gingrich is openly advocating for religious fundamentalist policies to be enshrined in law. Again, this is why they fear Sharia law . . . they don't want the competition.
3) LOL on that old Obama late-term abortion distortion that they pushed in 2008.
eBay Huckster
Member
PhoenixDark
Banned
O: 263
R: 275
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VJk
Popular vote: Romney +1%
Virginia: 11:20 PM
R: 275
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VJk
Popular vote: Romney +1%
Virginia: 11:20 PM
Not really. We are mostly liberals and 538 watchers in here. That's why I'd like to see this in OT
Manmademan
Member
I'm not underestimating old people at all. Did they all just stay home in 2008? seems unlikely.
The math is simple. Obama won by 240,000 votes last time- old people or no, and this year has the state adding 400,000 new voters (that do NOT show up in LV polls) that heavily favor democrats by something like a 80-90% margin, plus democratic voter participation in absentee/early voting is off the charts.
"old people" always vote. For republicans to take florida, they're going to need something that depresses democratic turnout, and I don't think they have it.
That's actually an interesting thought: aggregate the GAF-maps and see how that, as a prediction, stacks up against the pollsters, betting markets and Nate-Silver-alikes. I don't have the time to do it myself, unfortunately, but I'd love to see it done.
My map. (I actually copied the URL of someone with the same prediction, it's the ol' O332-R206 scenario).
Popular vote: O +3.5%
Virginia called: 10PM EST.
The prediction I've been making since August is actually that same map minus Florida, but I'm feeling optimistic (so much so that I almost made a O347 map). That, and the O303 scenario is too much of a red ocean at this point.
My map. (I actually copied the URL of someone with the same prediction, it's the ol' O332-R206 scenario).
Popular vote: O +3.5%
Virginia called: 10PM EST.
The prediction I've been making since August is actually that same map minus Florida, but I'm feeling optimistic (so much so that I almost made a O347 map). That, and the O303 scenario is too much of a red ocean at this point.
jamesinclair
Banned
Good news everyone!
Obama can withstand the storm
Obama can withstand the storm
Voter purging?
Looking at the most credible maps for a Romney victory really shows what an uphill EV battle he has.
The uphill battle seems solely in Ohio. The credible maps posted so far mostly have him winning Ohio, and that's so hard to predict, since he's never been ahead there at all.
Thats one powerful storm. You mean ill get to experience my first hurricane?
Your prediction is even more pessimistic than Phoenix'. Think about that.
I actually already started doing this.
Umm... Scranton isn't anywhere near the Ohio border dude. It's in eastern PA, below NY (Lackawanna County). I think people forget about how big PA is.
My county (Allegheny, where Pittsburgh is) has some "overlap" with OH voters since it's pretty close to the border. Also isolated in a sea of red counties.
Also, just reminding everyone, if Sandy were to land near NJ/Eastern PA it would hit all those blue counties you see in the lower right. Those counties deliver for Dems every time.
Umm... Scranton isn't anywhere near the Ohio border dude. It's in eastern PA, below NY (Lackawanna County). I think people forget about how big PA is.
My county (Allegheny, where Pittsburgh is) has some "overlap" with OH voters since it's pretty close to the border. Also isolated in a sea of red counties.
Also, just reminding everyone, if Sandy were to land near NJ/Eastern PA it would hit all those blue counties you see in the lower right. Those counties deliver for Dems every time.
Have you seen the storm map? It's going to hit the entirety of PA. All of it.
Umm... Scranton isn't anywhere near the Ohio border dude. It's in eastern PA, below NY (Lackawanna County). I think people forget about how big PA is.
My county (Allegheny, where Pittsburgh is) has some "overlap" with OH voters since it's pretty close to the border. Also isolated in a sea of red counties.
Also, just reminding everyone, if Sandy were to land near NJ/Eastern PA it would hit all those blue counties you see in the lower right. Those counties deliver for Dems every time.
or you didnt read it. It said he was a Scranton native, not that he was going there.
And we are reminding you to stay in your bubble in the north and let the big boys on the southeast side of the state deal with a storm that will be gone a week before election day
Technically it's not, since the numbers Cheebo gave don't actually match his map, which is identical to Phoenix. Cheebo? You're screwing up the data mining. What states do you think Romney will win?
Right now, Nate has a 73.5% chance of Obama winning Ohio, 59.8% of winning Virginia, and 57.7% chance of winning Colorado.
Not bad odds.
To spice things up:
Win:
McCaskil (MO)
Warren (MA)
Murphy (CT)
Nelson (FL)
Brown (OH)
Tester (MT)
Kaine (VA)
Baldwin (WI)
Berkley (NV)
Lose:
Donnelly (IN)
Kerry (NE)
Carmona (AZ)
Heitkamp (ND)
Democrats: 54 (+1)
Republicans: 46 (-1)
I think Heitkamp could go either way, honestly. But she hasn't been polled that much and the state fundamentals have worked against her. Same with Berkely, but I think it will work in the opposite with the state fundamentals and GOTV operation working in her favor. Strange that Indiana isn't being polled more after the rape comment.
Not bad odds.
To spice things up:
Win:
McCaskil (MO)
Warren (MA)
Murphy (CT)
Nelson (FL)
Brown (OH)
Tester (MT)
Kaine (VA)
Baldwin (WI)
Berkley (NV)
Lose:
Donnelly (IN)
Kerry (NE)
Carmona (AZ)
Heitkamp (ND)
Democrats: 54 (+1)
Republicans: 46 (-1)
I think Heitkamp could go either way, honestly. But she hasn't been polled that much and the state fundamentals have worked against her. Same with Berkely, but I think it will work in the opposite with the state fundamentals and GOTV operation working in her favor. Strange that Indiana isn't being polled more after the rape comment.
Umm... Scranton isn't anywhere near the Ohio border dude. It's in eastern PA, below NY (Lackawanna County). I think people forget about how big PA is.
My county (Allegheny, where Pittsburgh is) has some "overlap" with OH voters since it's pretty close to the border. Also isolated in a sea of red counties.
Also, just reminding everyone, if Sandy were to land near NJ/Eastern PA it would hit all those blue counties you see in the lower right. Those counties deliver for Dems every time.
You don't even realize how elections work, neighboring states benefit from visits and advertising. Its why you advertise in MN to reach WI, for example.
You think PA is huge, when you the Midwest were 3-4hrs distance is normal its a different way of thinking. If it were really in trouble Obama himself not Biden would be there.
Hobbestetrician
Member
So the only two maps posted with Romney winning are predicated completely on him flipping a state he is behind around 3 points in and has never lead in the aggregate for even a single day at the last second?
Manmademan
Member
you forgot King in ME. technically an independent, but expected to caucus with dems
It's a landslide victory, I didn't bother to include it.
But then, yes:
Manchin (WV)
Gillibrand (NY)
Whitehouse (RI)
Klobuchar (WI)
Mendez (NJ)
Cantwell (WA)
Fienstein (CA)
Stabenow (MI)
Carden (MD)
Carper (DE)
King (ME) - I
Sanders (VT) - I
Heinrich (NM)
Hinoro (HI)
While:
Corker (TN)
Cruz (TX)
Wicker (MS)
Barrasso (WY)
Hatch (UT)
Gay marriage wins in:
Maine
Washington
Loses in:
Maryland
Minnesota (Amendment passes)
Good guys get 2 wins for the first time. GAF posters blame blacks, bans happen.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Good news everyone!
Obama can withstand the storm
Obama loses PA? Really?
And it's a state which Obama has an insane ground game, and the ground game is still great from the defeat of the anti-union law.
My "bubble"? Central PA is a bubble. Pittsburgh and a lot of the surrounding suburbs are actually nice. Allegheny County is a good place to live. Cost of living is great but you aren't out in the sticks (unless you want to be).
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I'm still wondering how a storm a week before the election is going to have that big an impact.
You think Obama's going to win TWO Nebraska districts?
It isn't just A storm. It is THE storm. The Storm of the Century.
A Pittsburgh visit would make more sense than Scranton for the purposes of getting the attention of Ohio voters.
I didn't say Biden was there because of campaign woes. I was simply pointing out that Scranton is far away from Ohio.
Only in PoliGAF, among the usual suspects.
Sure I am optimistic given the Hispanic increase over the past 4 years. I will most likely be wrong but I said fuck it why not lol
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