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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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G

Gotchaye

Member
Manmademan said:
have you seen the recent viriginia polls? VERY favorable to obama there.
Click to expand...

Only the Democrats are still in their homes to answer phones, but they're all going to get blown away by Sandy while the Republicans are in their shelters.

Until the storm hits, better and better polls for Obama are actually bad news.
 
G

Giant Panda

Member
Manmademan said:
So, they're the CNN of weekly newsmagazines? I'll pass
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No, not like CNN. I don't mean in a wishy-washy way. I mean they say "the conservatives have these ideas right but are wrong here, but the liberals are right only on these parts" sort of thing. On economics they recognize they usually the center is the best path and not the no regulation the right preaches and not the overregulation the left does.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Anticitizen One said:
That's good to hear but i'm just skeptical because of how hard the republicans have been pushing these past few years after seeing the results in the 2010 election there gonna be out in droves voting.
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eh, the tea party phenomenon is done. Anyone expecting 2010 level turnout from republicans (and correspondingly low turnout from democrats) is high.
 
A

Averon

Member
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/27/frank_rich_right_will_rage_if_obama_wins/

Frank Rich: Right will rage if Obama wins

Ever since the days of Barry Goldwater, many liberals have assumed — or naively hoped — that each national defeat would teach Republicans that they had overreached, and pull them back from the extremes. Instead, the opposite has happened: The lesson of every loss, even the routs, has been “we were not conservative enough.”

The Goldwater smackdown in 1964 really did lay the groundwork for the Reagan revolution and the ensuing conservative era. But the loss to Barack Obama in 2008 — and the toppling of establishment conservatives by tea party insurgents in 2010 — has put the extremes in charge. Even someone as conservative and virulently opposed to the Obama agenda as Mitch McConnell has hired a tea party veteran — and Rand Paul adviser — to run his 2014 Senate re-election campaign.

So what happens if Obama beats Mitt Romney and the Republicans again, this time after the likes of McConnell made denying him a second term their main legislative mission over the last four years? The earnest-minded might hope that Republicans view Obama’s re-election as a message to cooperate and a sign that their obstruction failed. The sober-minded might look at the number of ridiculous white men determined to make rape victims carry their attacker’s baby and a primary campaign filled with evolution opponents and assume common sense and basic decency, or at least post-Renaissance thinking, might return on social and cultural issues.

But Frank Rich says none of that will happen. The only lesson that will be learned, the New York magazine columnist says, is to head further right. And Rich argues that’s because there simply aren’t any other voices left. The moderate Northeast wing of the party was purged long ago. The primary defeats of conservatives like Bob Bennett in Utah and Richard Lugar in Indiana taught establishment figures that any compromise has its costs. Even a moderate-conservative wing, Rich suggests, would have no leaders, let alone followers, in the national party.
Click to expand...
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Averon said:
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/27/frank_rich_right_will_rage_if_obama_wins/

Frank Rich: Right will rage if Obama wins
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agree completely. This is why the best thing that could have happened was Rick Santorum winning the republican primary, then going on to get annihilated in the general.

Then the "we weren't conservative enough!" argument would be as dead as Trayvon, and moderates could actually make some headway.

fortunately for the country, demographic changes happening in the south (in FL, NC, and Texas specifically) mean that the party as it stands will be completely irrelevant in 10 years, and if they move farther right it might even be sooner.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Okay.. I'll play along.

My Electoral Map is similar to many others'.
Projections.jpg


National vote:
Romney: 49.9%
Obama: 49.0%

Yup. If forced to predict right now? I see a clean split happening. The South's rednecks are going to run up the score for Romney down here (as demonstrated in multiple polls repeatedly at this point), while Obama retains just-large-enough victories in his blue and swing states.

morons1.gif

morons2.gif

morons3.gif

morons4.gif
Click to expand...


If we go a week and see the national and/or state polls shift to match each other more closely, I'd change my projections.. but for now, I see no evidence saying that the two data sets have to shift. Looking at the regional data, they're perfectly congruent right now.

Virginia gets called: 1125PM, ET
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Averon said:
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/27/frank_rich_right_will_rage_if_obama_wins/

Frank Rich: Right will rage if Obama wins
Click to expand...

Great article. Super candid and realistic. Republicans will need to take up immigration and DREAM because they won't be able to win an election, or hold onto Arizona and Texas, without it. Same with gay rights, at least in 4 years. They'll always be the pro-rights party, but this purge of moderates and ideologue crusade will continue. They'll make the most necessary changes (immigration), but only THE most necessary.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Amir0x said:
ok guys, CONTEST TIME

i want people to make an electoral map for Nov 6. Use 270towin to guide you (I'll save links; no changing links after October 31). Then, in the same post, I want a popular vote margin. For "in case of tie" purposes, I also want everyone to guess the time Virginia will be called for either candidate.


The winner will get a 20 dollar gift on Steam of their choice.

Submissions over on the last day of October 2012.
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http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VMm

303-235

Popular vote +2.0 for Obama

Virginia called 9:40pm EST
 
D

Diablos

Member
If, say, NY, PA, Delmarva, etc. are declaring states of emergency due to widespread damage on election day could they delay voting? Is such a thing possible?
 
A

Anticitizen One

Banned
I think we can all predict this election will be over the second Ohio is called and I expect to hear Romney's concession speech the moment California polls close. I will then proceed to Neogaf to see Pctx appologize and renounce the republican party.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Amir0x said:
Ghaleon, FoxNews called Virginia for Obama at 10:55PM(EST) and CNN called it at 10:58PM. Not sure when MSNBC called it...
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MSNBC was apparently after 11 PM, because Virginia still wasn't called by the time they announced Obama as the winner. Anyway, I have two questions. One, which channel are you using to determine when Virginia is called? Two, is it too late to edit our predictions?
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Mgoblue201 said:
MSNBC was apparently after 11 PM, because Virginia still wasn't called by the time they announced Obama as the winner. Anyway, I have two questions. One, which channel are you using to determine when Virginia is called? Two, is it too late to edit our predictions?
Click to expand...

The first news outlet to call Virginia will be the standard bearer PROVIDED their call is correct.

Also, on October 31 it'll be too late to change your prediction. But, if you do change it, let me know, because I'm not saving posts, I'm saving the data.
 
M

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
I'm at a family gathering and they're all spouting right-wing bullshit. I'm too badly outnumbered, so I'm keeping my mouth shut. Maybe family tears will taste better on Nov. 6.

EDIT: If it makes it any better, I'm detecting way more anti-Obama sentiments than pro-Romney. I bet they will throw Romney under the bus in a heartbeat.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Amir0x said:
The first news outlet to call Virginia will be the standard bearer PROVIDED their call is correct.

Also, on October 31 it'll be too late to change your prediction. But, if you do change it, let me know, because I'm not saving posts, I'm saving the data.
Click to expand...

I changed my Virginia call to 10:45 EST.

Originally I was actually going to do 10:30, but then I saw everyone else had it a bit earlier, so I did, too. I'm upping the time now based on last year's time. My theory was that it'd be a close state, but Romney would pull it off later.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
Amir0x said:
The first news outlet to call Virginia will be the standard bearer PROVIDED their call is correct.

Also, on October 31 it'll be too late to change your prediction. But, if you do change it, let me know, because I'm not saving posts, I'm saving the data.
Click to expand...
Then I'm adjusting my Virginia time by an hour, to 11:02 PM.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Updated your guys Virginia time

MasterShotgun said:
I'm at a family gathering and they're all spouting right-wing bullshit. I'm too badly outnumbered, so I'm keeping my mouth shut. Maybe family tears will taste better on Nov. 6.
Click to expand...

my family doesn't make any sense

none of them vote but

my mother is an extreme religious fundamentalist who for some reason would vote for Obama if she did vote, and her reason is... gay marriage? She definitely think it's wrong based on the Bible, but she feels it's not any religions place to dictate their beliefs to a government

my dad doesn't vote but would vote for Sarah Palin if he did, because "she seems like one of us. She doesn't make me feel dumb." When I go on to list the near billion ways that Mitt Romney (or Sarah Palin lol) would be bad for someone who works three jobs, is in a union and has to try to support his daughter and wife with their extreme medical bills, he just says "that would convince me if the government could handle ANYTHING well."


my sister tiffany doesn't vote but would vote Obama because, and this is her words, "I am married to a black man and I'm white/hispanic and so it's nice to have a mixed race president being a good role model for my son."

My sister Cynthia doesn't vote but is totally 100% for Obama.

My brother Mike, who I hardly talk to, is super pro-Romney because he hates black people because of some crazy paranoid bullshit he accumulated due to 10 years in prison. Even though he totally adopted the hip hop life style when he was growing up
 
D

Diablos

Member
gcubed said:
i have a serious question. You do know that election day isn't tuesday, right?
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Yeah but depending on how bad it is, it could definitely impact the race, as the worst case/doomsday scenarios would be felt well beyond or right up until election day (at the least, power issues, at worst, your property is in ruins and stuff is underwater)

http://hint.fm/wind/index.html

Check out the wind. It's getting sucked into Sandy like a magnet.

Also,

f9rWT.jpg


Holy shit.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Averon said:
http://www.salon.com/2012/10/27/frank_rich_right_will_rage_if_obama_wins/

Frank Rich: Right will rage if Obama wins
Click to expand...

Great interview.

I'm really interested in seeing how the right reacts to a non-black democratic presidential candidate in 2016. If the next dem after obama isn't black they're gonna be hard pressed to do all this racial baiting. If its a women they'd risk pissing women off and if its an hispanic they risk that crucial voting bloc and if its a white guy then they can't really go after anything but the old "tax and spend liberal."
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
So of the Cheebs and PD predictions of a Romney victory, tell me why you guys think he will carry OH when, in even the best polls, Romney has only pulled to a tie and never lead?

Romney's momentum has stalled (as just about all polling outlets have agreed). So what is the magic scenario that will allow Romney the lead in the overall aggregate polling for that state with only a week to go?

I really want to hear this, er read this.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
My dad is pro-Romney because he thinks Obama hates small businesses and that he Obamacare is evil. Though he couldn't tell you one thing about it.

My mom leans Republican, but is concerned about Mitt's stances on gay marriage and locking his dog in the car thing.

My brother (who turns 18 two days after the election) things Obama is too liberal and Mitt is too conservative, but I think he heard that once and has no idea what that means.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Advantage Obama in hunt for 270 electoral votes

President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.

While the Democratic incumbent has the upper hand in the electoral vote hunt, Romney has pulled even, or is slightly ahead, in polling in a few pivotal states, including Florida and Virginia. The Republican challenger also appears to have the advantage in North Carolina, the most conservative of the hotly contested nine states that will determine the winner.

While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.
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http://news.yahoo.com/advantage-obama-hunt-270-electoral-votes-163526687--election.html

I like this not necessarily because it says anything new, but because Romney's momentum gambit is crumbling. Well, that.. and the comments section is hysterical.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
ivysaur12 said:
My dad is pro-Romney because he thinks Obama hates small businesses and that he Obamacare is evil. Though he couldn't tell you one thing about it.

My mom leans Republican, but is concerned about Mitt's stances on gay marriage and locking his dog in the car thing.

My brother (who turns 18 two days after the election) things Obama is too liberal and Mitt is too conservative, but I think he heard that once and has no idea what that means.
Click to expand...

Yes, extending the Bush tax cuts, NDAA, keeping GITMO open, DRONE strikes.

Totally liberal stuff.
 
S

SSGMUN10000

Connoisseur Of Tedium
Im thinking of revising my prediction of Obama winning the popular vote. He will win the ec but thinking Romney may take the vote by a few percentage points. This will be completely hilarious and sad at the same time.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
ivysaur12 said:
My dad is pro-Romney because he thinks Obama hates small businesses and that he Obamacare is evil. Though he couldn't tell you one thing about it.

My mom leans Republican, but is concerned about Mitt's stances on gay marriage and locking his dog in the car thing.

My brother (who turns 18 two days after the election) things Obama is too liberal and Mitt is too conservative, but I think he heard that once and has no idea what that means.
Click to expand...
They sound like low information voters.
 
D

dabig2

Member
ivysaur12 said:
My brother (who turns 18 two days after the election) things Obama is too liberal and Mitt is too conservative, but I think he heard that once and has no idea what that means.
Click to expand...

So basically your brother represents most of the American population. The "the truth is in the middle and neither of these guys approaches it" kind of dumb shit that cable news networks have also been peddling for decades as this country veers more and more into right fantasy-land.

I wonder if we'll ever reset "the middle" narrative back to where it should be (slightly left of Obama).
 
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