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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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L

littleworm

Member
Good polls all around today. On a side note I tried using the ignore list today, I didn't like it, I just un-ignored everyone soon after.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Ok that Florida poll seems inaccurate, it's not for all of Florida; very weird.

Still the fact that Romney is virtually tied with Obama isn't bad for him; it's within the margin of error. Plus polls tend to under sample Cuban turnout which means polls are probably missing 1-2% of Romney's support.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Ok that Florida poll seems inaccurate, it's not for all of Florida; very weird.

Still the fact that Romney is virtually tied with Obama isn't bad for him; it's within the margin of error. Plus polls tend to under sample Cuban turnout which means polls are probably missing 1-2% of Romney's support.
Click to expand...
oh god it's wolf blitzer
 
K

Kusagari

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Ok that Florida poll seems inaccurate, it's not for all of Florida; very weird.

Still the fact that Romney is virtually tied with Obama isn't bad for him; it's within the margin of error. Plus polls tend to under sample Cuban turnout which means polls are probably missing 1-2% of Romney's support.
Click to expand...

If anything the polls are underestimating turnout of non Cuban Hispanics.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Ok that Florida poll seems inaccurate, it's not for all of Florida; very weird.

Still the fact that Romney is virtually tied with Obama isn't bad for him; it's within the margin of error. Plus polls tend to under sample Cuban turnout which means polls are probably missing 1-2% of Romney's support.
Click to expand...

lol.
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Ok that Florida poll seems inaccurate, it's not for all of Florida; very weird.

Still the fact that Romney is virtually tied with Obama isn't bad for him; it's within the margin of error. Plus polls tend to under sample Cuban turnout which means polls are probably missing 1-2% of Romney's support.
Click to expand...
hoypdoy.gif
 
E

Effect

Member
jbug617 said:
I wonder if Romney is going to pull the Ohio Jeep ad since the company responded.
Click to expand...

Nope. Romney doesn't give a damn about facts or truth.

Best we can hope is that those in the media turn on Romney and make it an issue in the final days. Or they realize this horse race game they've been planning is getting to dangerous and they are actually putting people at risk by letting Romney get away with his lies.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Amir0x said:
ok guys, CONTEST TIME

i want people to make an electoral map for Nov 6. Use 270towin to guide you (I'll save links; no changing links after October 31). Then, in the same post, I want a popular vote margin. For "in case of tie" purposes, I also want everyone to guess the time Virginia will be called for either candidate.


The winner will get a 20 dollar gift on Steam of their choice.

Submissions over on the last day of October 2012.
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http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=WdM

Va called at Midnight

Pop vote within 2%
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Dax01 said:
No matter what Obama's going to break the long-standing streak of incumbent presidents winning reelection by a margin bigger than their first election.
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Hmm, I hadn't thought of that.

If you count FDR's 3rd and 4th presidential elections, then it happened in both 1940 and 1944. If you ignore those and look further back you have to all the way to the reelection of Madison in 1812 to find another clear example. Every other example that I see involves weird moments in US history such as Grover Cleveland's non-consecutive terms and the four way race in 1912.
 
L

luxarific

Nork unification denier
I wish someone would write a bio of Matt Drudge and suss out his motivations. I mean, he's gay. Dude, your party hates you. (Of course this is not much different than the log cabin folk either - would you rather have low taxes or civil rights?) Not saying you can't be conservative and gay. But gay Republicans like Drudge and Luntz? Yeah, I don't get you guys.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
To continue the possible Hispanic underpolling discussion, PPP shows Obama losing among Florida Hispanics by 8 points. Florida Hispanics are about half Cuban and half other -- and national polls of (mostly non-Cuban) Hispanics show Obama leading by 20-50 points. If Obama were winning non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida by just 10 points, he'd need to be losing Cuban Hispanics by over 25 points to be down by 8 among Florida Hispanics. So either there's something specific to non-Cuban Hispanic voters in Florida that's making them significantly less supportive of Obama (not impossible), or Cubans just abhor him (somewhat less likely), or there's a sampling problem going on here.

jbug617 said:
I wonder if Romney is going to pull the Ohio Jeep ad since the company responded.
Click to expand...

The evidence suggests the ad didn't go UP until after Chrysler responded, so I doubt it.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
luxarific said:
I wish someone would write a bio of Matt Drudge and suss out his motivations. I mean, he's gay. Dude, your party hates you. (Of course this is not much different than the log cabin folk either - would you rather have low taxes or civil rights?) Not saying you can't be conservative and gay. But gay Republicans like Drudge and Luntz? Yeah, I don't get you guys.
Click to expand...

I just don't understand why people make such ugly webpages.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
pigeon said:
To continue the possible Hispanic underpolling discussion, PPP shows Obama losing among Florida Hispanics by 8 points. Florida Hispanics are about half Cuban and half other -- and national polls of (mostly non-Cuban) Hispanics show Obama leading by 20-50 points. If Obama were winning non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida by just 10 points, he'd need to be losing Cuban Hispanics by over 25 points to be down by 8 among Florida Hispanics. So either there's something specific to non-Cuban Hispanic voters in Florida that's making them significantly less supportive of Obama (not impossible), or Cubans just abhor him (somewhat less likely), or there's a sampling problem going on here.



The evidence suggests the ad didn't go UP until after Chrysler responded, so I doubt it.
Click to expand...

It's going to be the fact Cubans don't like him that's doing it. Obama isn't quite as hardline as they would like (most cubans want Castro's head on a platter and nothing less) so even thinking about easing up on the embargo is going to absolutely kill him with that community. They aren't big on playing nice with cuba, the cubans that is.
 
M

markatisu

Member
B-Dubs said:
It's going to be the fact Cubans don't like him that's doing it. Obama isn't quite as hardline as they would like (most cubans want Castro's head on a platter and nothing less) so even thinking about easing up on the embargo is going to absolutely kill him with that community. They aren't big on playing nice with cuba, the cubans that is.
Click to expand...

Only old Cubans feel that way, Younger Cubans don't give one shit about Castro, Cuba or the embargo. They broke for Obama in 2008 and will probably do so again

I think its being underestimated because people don't understand Cuban does not equal Hispanic
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Mitt made a big mistake calling out a US automaker like that. The US automakers have to defend themselves as authentic American. It is part of their image and their brand. Ford benefitted tremendously from avoiding the bailout and repeatedly publicizing that. People pay attention to this shit.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
B-Dubs said:
It's going to be the fact Cubans don't like him that's doing it.
Click to expand...

It's not impossible, but that would mean Romney leads among Cubans by more than he leads among any other demographic group. I just find that hard to believe.

Entertainment value:

@brianbeutler said:
LOL RT @JRubinBlogger: @JayCostTWS when do we break it to them that averaging polls is junk?
Click to expand...
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
markatisu said:
Only old Cubans feel that way, Younger Cubans don't give one shit about Castro, Cuba or the embargo. They broke for Obama in 2008 and will probably do so again

I think its being underestimated because people don't understand Cuban does not equal Hispanic
Click to expand...

It's old Cubans and recent immigrants from Cuba. But yes you are probably right.
 
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