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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Aylinato

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Ok that Florida poll seems inaccurate, it's not for all of Florida; very weird.

Still the fact that Romney is virtually tied with Obama isn't bad for him; it's within the margin of error. Plus polls tend to under sample Cuban turnout which means polls are probably missing 1-2% of Romney's support.
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failure to troll tonight!
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
pigeon said:
To continue the possible Hispanic underpolling discussion, PPP shows Obama losing among Florida Hispanics by 8 points. Florida Hispanics are about half Cuban and half other -- and national polls of (mostly non-Cuban) Hispanics show Obama leading by 20-50 points. If Obama were winning non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida by just 10 points, he'd need to be losing Cuban Hispanics by over 25 points to be down by 8 among Florida Hispanics. So either there's something specific to non-Cuban Hispanic voters in Florida that's making them significantly less supportive of Obama (not impossible), or Cubans just abhor him (somewhat less likely), or there's a sampling problem going on here.



The evidence suggests the ad didn't go UP until after Chrysler responded, so I doubt it.
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Obama won like 57-42 in 2008. Bush won it in 2004 by about 55-45.

Of course, Bush didn't lose the overall latino vote by nearly as much as Romney is down nation-wide, so it seems like Obama should be doing better than that PPP polls show among hispanics.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Tamanon said:
Sometimes I think I just don't understand twitter RTs and @s. That tweet is confusing me.
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Retweet is a quote. @ is who you're talking to. So Brian B is saying "LOL, look at this quote from JRubinBlogger to JayCostTWS- [insert quote here]."

I think that's right; I don't use twitter that much.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
SmokeMaxX said:
Retweet is a quote. @ is who you're talking to. So Brian B is saying "LOL, look at this quote from JRubinBlogger to JayCostTWS- [insert quote here]."

I think that's right; I don't use twitter that much.
Click to expand...

Sounds about right. I've got twitter but it's mostly for news stuff/to follow Acebandage for Wii U updates.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Tamanon said:
Sometimes I think I just don't understand twitter RTs and @s. That tweet is confusing me.
Click to expand...

Brian is laughing at Jennifer Rubin, a very dumb pro-Romney hack employed at the Washington Post.

edit:

@fivethirtyeight
People seem to have grasped that 538 shows same thing as all other polling averages. Thus begins the War on Averages.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Clevinger said:
@fivethirtyeight
People seem to have grasped that 538 shows same thing as all other polling averages. Thus begins the War on Averages.
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If you add all the independents/voters for 3rd party candidates to Romney's totals in all the swing states and then average Romney's and Obama's votes together, it'd show a tie.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Tamanon said:
Sometimes I think I just don't understand twitter RTs and @s. That tweet is confusing me.
Click to expand...

I believe that JRubinBlogger asked JayCostTWS "When do we break it to them that averaging polls is junk?" This was shared and laughed at by Brian Beutler.

Yeah, I don't get it.
 
P

-PXG-

Member
I really wish I could slap some of you fools. Stop drinking out of Diablos' cup. You know whatever shit he's sippin ain't right. Stop it.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Tamanon said:
Sometimes I think I just don't understand twitter RTs and @s. That tweet is confusing me.
Click to expand...

I know others have relied, but I'm just going to see if I can break it down even clearer.

LOL (BB's response) RT (quote) @jrubin (person being quote): @JayCostTWS when do we break it to them that averaging polls is junk? (what she said)

And Josh's write-up on where the polls are at today:
Romney has to win North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado and then pick off at least one state where President Obama has a lead to get to 270 electoral votes.

By those metrics, a lot has to fall into place to get Romney an electoral college victory. This reasoning is mirrored in this analysis piece out tonight from AP, Nate Silver’s statistical model and commentary, most other sober analyses I’ve seen and most public betting sites.

The one piece of discordant data is the national poll averages which seem to show it either a dead heat or a very small advantage to Romney.

There are three possibilities. 1) The state numbers are off. 2) The national numbers are off. 3) We’ll have different winners for the popular and electoral college votes. History tells me three is unlikely. It’s also notable that the national numbers are much closer than the electoral numbers. I’m basically persuaded by the argument that the state by state numbers are usually of a higher quality and have more data behind them. But at the end of the day this one is just a bit of a mystery and one I dont — just speaking for myself — find entirely resolvable.

On balance, barring major changes — and the polls seem pretty stable at the moment — President Obama has a much more plausible route (actually a handful of routes) to 270 than Gov. Romney.

Watch Virginia and Ohio. They’ll tell the story.
Click to expand...
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Loudninja said:
FL is going to be close, but I think the ground game will flipped it.
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Normally, I'd concur. But Florida seems to be the only state where Romney invested in his organization. Obama still possesses an advantage, mind you. And it could still flip the state. But the disparity is less severe than in other states, so the effect will be muted.
Dax01 said:
BREAKING NEWS: PoliGAF continues on with business as usual
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That's pretty damn good.
 
I

ido

Member
SmokeMaxX said:
Arkansas is solidly red, but we almost always elect Democratic governors, house reps, and senators.
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Good to see someone I know in here. (It's David, from Mississippi... TO of Red September, and shit).

MS always... ALWAYS goes red, and always has a R governor. Larger cities like Jackson will, however, vote in Democrats for Mayor and shit.

I will be so excited the day a non-republican takes MS.

Oh yeah, and polls are looking good I see. This next week is not going to go by quickly.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Serious question: some economists, like Mark Zandi at Moody's, say that the U.S. economy will probably create 12 million jobs in the next four years even if we do nothing politically. Does anyone know which economic indicators people look at to come to that conclusion?
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
ido said:
Good to see someone I know in here. (It's David, from Mississippi... TO of Red September, and shit).

MS always... ALWAYS goes red, and always has a R governor. Larger cities like Jackson will, however, vote in Democrats for Mayor and shit.

I will be so excited the day a non-republican takes MS.

Oh yeah, and polls are looking good I see. This next week is not going to go by quickly.
Click to expand...

Oh snap haha. Whatup dude? Yo, you need to get in on this intrade shit ;)
We gon' make bank on election day!
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Puddles said:
Serious question: some economists, like Mark Zandi at Moody's, say that the U.S. economy will probably create 12 million jobs in the next four years even if we do nothing politically. Does anyone know which economic indicators people look at to come to that conclusion?
Click to expand...

"The housing cycle's going to kick into gear. A lot more homes are going to be built, office buildings, retail space. House prices are going to rise," says Zandi. "That's going to lift consumer spending and retailing and leisure and hospitality, and this is going to create a lot of jobs."
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Oh! Should I stroke the Diablos fire?

...Yes.

vtsCX.jpg
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
Those PPP polls... :O

Man, I can't wait for election day.

Just please, oh god please, let Obama win the popular vote and congressional Dems perform well. I don't want the "illegitimate president" shit to get any worse, and the House is just pissing me off.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
ido said:
I want to, but doesn't it take forever to move money into it?

How much have you put in? This shit is just about sewed up, imo.
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If you wire transfer it in, you can get it in same day. That's what I did. I got 3k on Obama though. I got the confidence.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Has anyone run ANY models for the House?
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Not that I've seen.

I saw something on the New York Times or somewhere that had a map of the U.S. with the number of seats likely going for each candidate, toss-ups, etc., but I don't think it was regularly updated, and I can't seem to find it now.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Dax01 said:
Oh! Should I stroke the Diablos fire?

...Yes.

vtsCX.jpg
Click to expand...
I might be without power? FUCK. We're only supposed to get 2-4 inches of rainfall in Pittsburgh.

Hey, yo: 10 mil people without power for up to 7-10 days is no laughing matter. I know I'm a worrywort, but for real, none of you people are concerned that this could impact the election at all? Sandy is looking to be serious, but most people in this thread write it off like a bad Gallup poll.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Black Mamba said:
"The housing cycle's going to kick into gear. A lot more homes are going to be built, office buildings, retail space. House prices are going to rise," says Zandi. "That's going to lift consumer spending and retailing and leisure and hospitality, and this is going to create a lot of jobs."
Click to expand...

Do you know if there are any specific macroeconomic indicators he's looking at to come to that conclusion, and if so, where I could find them?
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Okay. From the beginning of this election I've always asked one thing: "Who's winning in Ohio?" On election night I will be paying attention to Ohio and only Ohio. I'm going to ignore everything else. Why? This map should clear it up:

YZkmu.png


As soon as Ohio is called for Obama, I'm declaring him the winner.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Delaware Governor Jack Markell has ordered that no one will be allowed on Delaware roads after 5:00 a.m. Monday except for emergency and essential personnel.

A violation of Level Two driving restriction has a penalty of a fine of up to $115 on first offense, and a fine of up to $200 and up to 30 days in jail for subsequent offenses.
Click to expand...
http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8863176

Secret cover for Obamas thugs to do their work?

War on cars?




In other news, I like how the planet self corrects.

High CO2 levels cause global warming, causing giant hurricane?

Giant hurricane causes all travel and power use to cease, causing CO2 levels to plunge.

I hope the CO2 people graph tomorrow.
 
W

worldrunover

Member
On one hand I dislike the race tightening from a month ago. On the other hand, these crazy people who think Mitt has this locked up will just have tears that are that much more bitter come November 7th. Yes. So bitter.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Dax01 said:
Okay. From the beginning of this election I've always asked one thing: "Who's winning in Ohio?" On election night I will be paying attention to Ohio and only Ohio. I'm going to ignore everything else. Why? This map should clear it up:

YZkmu.png


As soon as Ohio is called for Obama, I'm declaring him the winner.
Click to expand...

The problem with that is Ohio might take a while to be called. Why wait when VA/CO can potentially get called earlier?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
makingmusic476 said:
Not that I've seen.

I saw something on the New York Times or somewhere that had a map of the U.S. with the number of seats likely going for each candidate, toss-ups, etc., but I don't think it was regularly updated, and I can't seem to find it now.
Click to expand...

Right, I can't believe no one has done this yet. It's far more interesting than the presidential race.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
Diablos said:
I might be without power? FUCK. We're only supposed to get 2-4 inches of rainfall in Pittsburgh.

Hey, yo: 10 mil people without power for up to 7-10 days is no laughing matter. I know I'm a worrywort, but for real, none of you people are concerned that this could impact the election at all? Sandy is looking to be serious, but most people in this thread write it off like a bad Gallup poll.
Click to expand...
Did you ignore my posts yesterday? I'm as concerned, if not more, than even you. This could be unexpected disaster we all feared. It's getting really bad. FFS.
 
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