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[The Librarian]

The problem with that is Ohio might take a while to be called. Why wait when VA/CO can potentially get called earlier?

You're not looking at this the right way. Romney needs Ohio to win. He's not getting Nevada.

Additionally, it's unlikely that CO and VA will be called before Ohio. Polls are showing a tighter race there than in OH. Additionally, CO will most likely be called later than Ohio because polls are closing there hours after Ohio's closes.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama ticked up to 74.6% on 538. 80.1% in the nowcast.

Has anyone run ANY models for the House?

No everyone knows the House is going to stay Republican, who cares!

Presidential elections are all that matter!

/dumbass

 

[CygnusXS]

Does it make me a bad person that I'm secretly hoping for all 3 of Colorado, Ohio, and Florida to have month long vote recounts?

 

[ezrarh]

Donated a little bit to Obama. It's the least I can do for him helping me make money off of unskewers.

I feel like at this point it doesn't matter if you donate to Obama. Probably more important to donate to the senate or congressional campaigns.

Also, I'm waiting on Romney to somehow turn this hurricane into a political issue.

 

[GhaleonEB]

What if this is Obama's Katrina.

 

[ivysaur12]

Obama ticked up to 74.6% on 538. 80.1% in the nowcast.


No everyone knows the House is going to stay Republican, who cares!

Presidential elections are all that matter!

/dumbass

 

[jamesinclair]

What if this is Obama's Katrina.

I heard hes golfing as we speak

 

[Tamanon]

What if this is Obama's Katrina.

Barack Obama doesn't care about predominantly white people.

 

[eBay Huckster]

What if this is Obama's Watergate?

 

[Diablos]

Did you ignore my posts yesterday? I'm as concerned, if not more, than even you. This could be unexpected disaster we all feared. It's getting really bad. FFS.

I figured you were trolling me like everyone else in here. I can't tell.

 

[fallagin]

What if this is Obama's Katrina.

No it'll be Obamas 10th watergate.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

What if this is Obama's Katrina.

What if this is Obama's 9/11?

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's a prevailing thought process.

I remember reading an article during the 08 election where this guy is complaining about how politicians are useless, and it starts out with something like

"Well every four years I think about the candidates, usually end up voting for the Democrat, and cast my ballot in a school gymnasium that keeps deteriorating anyway!"

It's like, hey. Hey dumbass.

 

[pigeon]

Obama ticked up to 74.6% on 538. 80.1% in the nowcast

Obama's chance to win Florida is about equal to Romney's chance to win Virginia.

edit: "Fairly blah day." Apparently Nate Silver is too cool for our PPP poll excitement.

 

[teh_pwn]

Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa all look likely Obama. Only tossups left are Florida, Colorado, and Virginia. But ignoring that Obama already has 270.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Obama's chance to win Florida is about equal to Romney's chance to win Virginia.

Bad news for Obama

 

[Drakeon]

I might be without power? FUCK. We're only supposed to get 2-4 inches of rainfall in Pittsburgh.

Hey, yo: 10 mil people without power for up to 7-10 days is no laughing matter. I know I'm a worrywort, but for real, none of you people are concerned that this could impact the election at all? Sandy is looking to be serious, but most people in this thread write it off like a bad Gallup poll.

I'm concerned, but honestly, what can anyone do about it here? There's no use worrying about it if we have no ability to affect the outcome. I'm just hoping that Team Obama is gearing up to weather the storm the best they possibly can in those states.

 

[Diablos]

Obama needs CO and VA for insurance.

FL would be great too but I think Romney actually did everything right there in terms of getting his organization up and running.

 

[The Librarian]

Did you ignore my posts yesterday? I'm as concerned, if not more, than even you. This could be unexpected disaster we all feared. It's getting really bad. FFS.

Honey, you're going to confuse him.

Edit:

I figured you were trolling me like everyone else in here. I can't tell.

Welp.

 

[Loudninja]

Will you guy stop with the storm bs?

It like people are making of fan faction about a damn storm.

 

[Jackson50]

I figured you were trolling me like everyone else in here. I can't tell.

I was until I saw that map you posted yesterday. This could be really bad. Have you heard any updates?

 

[makingmusic476]

I'll do my own poll for the House.

Assuming a generic Republican versus a generic Democratic candidate, which of the two would you guys vote for?

After a completely arbitrary number of people chosen by me respond, I'll tally the votes and publish my findings.

 

[Clevinger]

Obama ticked up to 74.6% on 538.

All those nice polls and he barely moved up at all. Terrible news.

 

[Diablos]

I was until I saw that map you posted yesterday. This could be really bad. Have you heard any updates?

...

 

[Black Mamba]

Do you know if there are any specific macroeconomic indicators he's looking at to come to that conclusion, and if so, where I could find them?

From Zandi's perspective, the potential is in place because the economy is on track to create 2 million jobs this year. As long as the recovery maintains at its current pace, 8 million jobs would be created over the next four years.

A good batch of those jobs should come from more home building and commercial construction, which are still at incredibly low levels of activity, and "will increase substantially," he said.

"Even under very conservative assumptions" 4 million jobs could be created over the next four years in construction and construction-related industries like manufacturing, transportation, distribution and financial services.

"The economy’s fundamentals have improved significantly since the recession, and this will shine through in the next several years," Zandi said.

The Labor Department has projected that employers will create 20.5 million jobs from 2010 to 2020 with the healthcare sector expected to grow the most rapidly, while construction jobs could struggle to recover positions lost during the recession.

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539 Here is more detailed CBO analysis.

Can't find exactly what Moody's looking at and really too lazy to keep looking.

But if you want to see some current indicators:

Housing: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-23/u-s-home-values-jump-the-most-since-2006-zillow-says.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/17/usa-economy-idUSL1E8LGN4S20121017

Auto sales: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/02/us-chrysler-sales-idUSBRE8910IY20121002

Reported household spending is also up. So these are all positive indicators right now.

 

[Anticitizen One]

If the house does stay republican I hope its by a very thin margin. I'm still furious at the democrats complete mishandling of having wide majorities in the house and senate for Obama's first 2 years.

 

[Bowdz]

Will you guy stop with the storm bs?

It like people are making of fan faction about a damn storm.

If the house does stay republican I hope its by a very thin margin. I'm still furious at the democrats complete mishandling of having wide majorities in the house and senate for Obama's first 2 years.

I thought the prevailing wisdom was that the dems were going to pick up seats in the House? At the very least, I will be happy if Bachmann and West lose their seats.

 

[HylianTom]

Obama needs CO and VA for insurance.

FL would be great too but I think Romney actually did everything right there in terms of getting his organization up and running.

On the bolded, you and I agree 1000%. I don't trust Husted any further than I can throw his redneck fratboy ass, so I'd like the Electoral College margin to be large enough such that no one swing-y state he wins can take away his victory.

 

[ivysaur12]

I thought the prevailing wisdom was that the dems were going to pick up seats in the House? At the very least, I will be happy if Bachmann and West lose their seats.

Bachman looks like she'll keep hers, but who knows. The actual polling of different districts has been so light that I don't know what to expect beyond a "conventional wisdom" that the GOP will keep the House.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

All those nice polls and he barely moved up at all. Terrible news.

The NowCast reflects the uptick you are looking for.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I thought the prevailing wisdom was that the dems were going to pick up seats in the House? At the very least, I will be happy if Bachmann and West lose their seats.

They'll pick up seats but probably not enough to win it.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Right, I can't believe no one has done this yet. It's far more interesting than the presidential race.

I believe RCP has what you guys are looking for (if I read it right).

I remember Ohio being called really early last go round, considering the polling and early voting is similar, I can't see why it wont happen again.

You're not looking at this the right way. Romney needs Ohio to win. He's not getting Nevada.

Additionally, it's unlikely that CO and VA will be called before Ohio. Polls are showing a tighter race there than in OH. Additionally, CO will most likely be called later than Ohio because polls are closing there hours after Ohio's closes.

I thought Ohio, if it was close, had to count provisional ballots which could take weeks?

I feel like at this point it doesn't matter if you donate to Obama. Probably more important to donate to the senate or congressional campaigns.

Also, I'm waiting on Romney to somehow turn this hurricane into a political issue.

but Barack Obama and Michelle Obama both personally sent me emails!

 

[Trurl]

If the house does stay republican I hope its by a very thin margin. I'm still furious at the democrats complete mishandling of having wide majorities in the house and senate for Obama's first 2 years.

I'm furious at Dem leaning demographics being too stupid to vote in midterms. I remember hearing that 8% of young people (19-30) in Ohio voted in 2010. 8 fucking percent. And that was with both a senatorial and gubernatorial election.

I don't know what the situation was like in the rest of the country, but I doubt it was much better.

 

[Black Mamba]

Ohio moved slightly up as did Va (almost 60% now) for Obama.

I am not sure Florida moved at all. Maybe a bit down. I forgot where it was but 62.5% now. Down from a week ago when it was around 66%. NH went up a bit, too.

national trackers hardly changed, so the move is almost entirely cuz of Ohio's slight move up. Makes sense, of course.

Now Cast jumped a lot to 80%. That's important cuz it means if nothing changed Obama is 4:1 to win. We're close enough to the election where the Now-Cast numbers matter too because the economic data is becoming less relevant in Silver's model (it's probably close to phased out already) and the two will be the same soon. The higher the Now-Cast goes the higher the model will go come election night (since they'll be the same).

My guess is Silver's model is aggressive the final week in meeting the Now-Cast as there's no time left to change the race.

 

[ivysaur12]

They'll pick up seats but probably not enough to win it.

But, like, how do we know?! There has been almost no polling done on this. I have no idea on the range of seats the Dems might pickup. I'm going to guess that the net gain will be for Democrats because of how wildly the House swung right. But enough to swing it back to the Dems? Maybe. But I'm not sure!

I'd love to see a model that looked at the probability for winning the House. I'm sure the Congressional races have them. I just want them.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

On the bolded, you and I agree 1000%. I don't trust Husted any further than I can throw his redneck fratboy ass, so I'd like the Electoral College margin to be large enough such that no one swing-y state he wins can take away his victory.

I also agree with this. Even if Obama was up 5 points, Husted would do some stuff to make it a coin flip.

 

[Diablos]

Will you guy stop with the storm bs?

It like people are making of fan faction about a damn storm.

Have you paid attention to the news at all? It's not just any "damn storm"

 

[Clevinger]

I am not sure Florida moved at all. Maybe a bit down. I forgot where it was but 62.5% now.

It was 63.8

 

[Trurl]

I also agree with this. Even if Obama was up 5 points, Husted would do some stuff to make it a coin flip.

I don't know. You can do some pre-election stuff to depress the turnout (ID requirements and so forth) but I'm skeptical about how easy it is to get away with outright fraud other than a most marginal kind.

 

[B-Dubs]

Ohio moved slightly up as did Va (almost 60% now) for Obama.

I am not sure Florida moved at all. Maybe a bit down. I forgot where it was but 62.5% now. Down from a week ago when it was around 66%. NH went up a bit, too.

national trackers hardly changed, so the move is almost entirely cuz of Ohio's slight move up. Makes sense, of course.

Now Cast jumped a lot to 80%. That's important cuz it means if nothing changed Obama is 4:1 to win. We're close enough to the election where the Now-Cast numbers matter too because the economic data is becoming less relevant in Silver's model (it's probably close to phased out already) and the two will be the same soon. The higher the Now-Cast goes the higher the model will go come election night (since they'll be the same).

My guess is Silver's model is aggressive the final week in meeting the Now-Cast as there's no time left to change the race.

I think the next jobs report might be factored in, but unless we lost 1 billion jobs I doubt it would do much.

 

[pigeon]

I am pretty interested to read Sam Wang's forecast ratings after the election. He claims that 538 regularly errs on the side of caution, but obviously he would say that since his model is way more aggressive. On the other hand, that kind of "rain bias" is probably exactly what you'd expect from him. Which makes Intrade taking a position even closer to par than 538 pretty funny.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I feel like at this point it doesn't matter if you donate to Obama. Probably more important to donate to the senate or congressional campaigns.

Also, I'm waiting on Romney to somehow turn this hurricane into a political issue.

Seriously, if he goes that route...it would be a fool hearty move.

 

[Aaron Strife]

But, like, how do we know?! There has been almost no polling done on this. I have no idea on the range of seats the Dems might pickup. I'm going to guess that the net gain will be for Democrats because of how wildly the House swung right. But enough to swing it back to the Dems? Maybe. But I'm not sure!

I'd love to see a model that looked at the probability for winning the House. I'm sure the Congressional races have them. I just want them.

Sam Wang estimated it'll be an exact tie - 218-217, either way (his model literally produces 217.5 to 217.5). There's some room for error of course.

 

[CygnusXS]

It makes sense that there hasn't been much in the way of polling or modeling for the House. There would be an enormous amount of data to sift through if you tried to project each district.

 

[pigeon]

Seriously, if he goes that route...it would be a fool hearty move.

Especially since Romney said he'd shut down FEMA.

 

[Black Mamba]

I think the next jobs report might be factored in, but unless we lost 1 billion jobs I doubt it would do much.

It won't have much weight. 5 days before an election unless it's some kind of disastrous or miraculous report, not sure.

besides, I stand by my claim that nobody votes based on these reports. The vote is affected by the reality of people working not that they're told they are working.

 

[Oblivion]

What if this is Obama's Katrina.

Worse.

What if this Obama's Benghazi: Part 2?

 

[ivysaur12]

Sam Wang estimated it'll be an exact tie - 218-217, either way (his model literally produces 217.5 to 217.5). There's some room for error of course.

http://youtu.be/aqfC33WNBZ0?t=6s

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Especially since Romney said he'd shut down FEMA.

He didn't fucking say that.

No way.

 

[makingmusic476]

Results of my poll:

Absolutely no one is voting. The House will be empty.

Feel free to tweet this as you wish.