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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Black Mamba said:
It won't have much weight. 5 days before an election unless it's some kind of disastrous or miraculous report, not sure.

besides, I stand by my claim that nobody votes based on these reports. The vote is affected by the reality of people working not that they're told they are working.
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Yea, unless it's really extreme it won't matter. Still, you know full well the Republicans are going to be pushing BLS trutherism. I doubt it will work, but you never know.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
pigeon said:
I am pretty interested to read Sam Wang's forecast ratings after the election. He claims that 538 regularly errs on the side of caution, but obviously he would say that since his model is way more aggressive. On the other hand, that kind of "rain bias" is probably exactly what you'd expect from him. Which makes Intrade taking a position even closer to par than 538 pretty funny.
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People are saying that Silver will be completely discredited if Romney wins even though Silver is giving Romney (if I understand it correctly) a 1 out of 4 chance of winning. That's a lot of pressure to be cautious. Maybe Wang is right, but I think Silver is showing a nice amount of integrity by being as bold as he is.


Edit: It's kind of tough to be someone like Silver. He could be treated like a joke if something he says a 1/4 chance of happening occurs. Meanwhile people like Dick Morris have evergreen jobs of peddling nonsense.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I think the storm is kinda big deal, but won't impact the election terribly. We're looking at subways getting flooded. Hopefully the big metropolitan areas are better at draining water with their sewer systems than New Orleans.
 
A

Anticitizen One

Banned
How on Earth is New Hampshire a swing state? It's a New England state for heaven's sake. Are there that many republicans all bunched up in that tiny state surrounded by libruls?
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Trurl said:
People are saying that Silver will be completely discredited if Romney wins even though Silver is giving Romney (if I understand it correctly) a 1 out of 4 chance of winning. That's a lot of pressure to be cautious. Maybe Wang is right, but I think Silver is showing a nice amount of integrity by being as bold as he is.


Edit: It's kind of tough to be someone like Silver. He could be treated like a joke if something he says a 1/4 chance of happening occurs. Meanwhile people like Dick Morris have evergreen jobs of peddling nonsense.
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It's kinda funny. If Romney wins the EC by one vote, Nate Silver would be considered more correct than Unskewedpolls which is predicting a Romney landslide.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
HylianTom said:
Is this a new one? Throw another data set onto the pile..

https://www.callfire.com/sites/default/files/pdf/press/NEVADA_PRES_POLL.pdf

Nevada: 50-46, Obama

I have no idea who Callfire is?! The number of brand new polling outfits this cycle is really something else.
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Didn't see this one but Silver has it already in the model.

Nevada at 85% on 538 now.

Romney has had ONE single poll all year putting him ahead in Nevada on 538 and only 2 withing 1 for him among the last few weeks. Romney is down and down by a sizable margin for this to be true.

I think Nevada is pretty much a lock with Pa, Michigan at this point. Need some more polls from Wisconsin til I confidently claim the same there. We're pretty much at the point where Ohio or Va + Co/NH/Iowa is all that's left to look at.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Chumly said:
Was the only poll today PPP for florida?
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PPP had Obama up 4 in Ohio and Up 2 in NH. Someone else had Ohio tied (though it was dated days ago and released late) and Gravis had Obama up 1 in Ohio.

A Nevada poll showing Obama up 4. 2 in Minn, one up 3 another up 8.

edit: Forgot Obama up in Va via PPP.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
StopMakingSense said:
As just a two-term House rep? lol. no.
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As opposed to a half-term U.S. Senator? One of the biggest talking points in 2008 was that he was inexperienced given what little time he spent in the U.S. Senate.

Hence why I was wondering if he could've made a similarly quick jump into a Presidential race had he won a federal race earlier in his career.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
StopMakingSense said:
R still + 1 on PPP national tracker.
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only D+2 when in reality is should be D+5. CLEARLY OBAMA IS UP BIG

/polltrutheralternateuniverse

edit: One interesting thing is the split between men/women is about the same in who votes obama vs romney. But more wome should vote, so I'm curious as to why Obama is down 1 rather than up 1 or tied.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
makingmusic476 said:
As opposed to a half-term U.S. Senator? One of the biggest talking points in 2008 was that he was inexperienced given what little time he spent in the U.S. Senate.

Hence why I was wondering if he could've made a similarly quick jump into a Presidential race had he won a federal race earlier in his career.
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For whatever reason, senators have an easier time jumping into the presidential race than House members do, even though their jobs are fairly similar.

I suppose the Senate deals more with foreign policy than the House does.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
Aaron Strife said:
For whatever reason, senators have an easier time jumping into the presidential race than House members do, even though their jobs are fairly similar.

I suppose the Senate deals more with foreign policy than the House does.
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Could also be the size of each body. I would assume Senators are more likely to be involved in writing legislation, whereas House members could get away with bandwagoning someone else's legislation more easily.
 
I

ISOM

Member
Aaron Strife said:
For whatever reason, senators have an easier time jumping into the presidential race than House members do, even though their jobs are fairly similar.

I suppose the Senate deals more with foreign policy than the House does.
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Senators make an easier jump because of the prestige of the position I'm guessing. There are only 50 senators as opposed to the 400+ house reps.
 
J

Jackson50

Member
makingmusic476 said:
As opposed to a half-term U.S. Senator? One of the biggest talking points in 2008 was that he was inexperienced given what little time he spent in the U.S. Senate.

Hence why I was wondering if he could've made a similarly quick jump into a Presidential race had he won a federal race earlier in his career.
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Yeah. Winning a Senate election is qualitatively different from a House election. You must appeal to a larger, more diverse constituency. You gain greater standing within the party and establish more links with prominent officials and donors. Your national fame is elevated. Altogether, it better prepares a candidate for a presidential campaign. Not that Obama's path was foreseeable, though. I doubt will see many candidates duplicate his rapid ascension.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
IGSaint said:
Senators make an easier jump because of the prestige of the position I'm guessing. There are only 50 senators as opposed to the 400+ house reps.
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Well, 100 senators. But yeah you all make good points.

One thing about Nate's forecast is he doesn't include internals. Usually for the better, but in North Dakota for example those are the only polls we get. So of course it's got an 86% chance of the Republican winning.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Officerrob said:
Dems keeping the senate is only at 67% on Intrade, go make some money
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Be very careful about the rules. Some models count independents that will likely caucus with Democrats as fellow Dems. The rules on Intrade lay out which indies will count as Dems and which won't. That might be why there's some hesitation on putting money on Dems' control of senate.
 
S

soul creator

Member
just used http://www.vote411.org/ (mentioned in OP) to sort out all the candidates...site seems pretty convenient, especially for all the other races no one talks about.

It helped me find out that there's a libertarian Domino's Pizza driver running for the Texas State Senate. Good luck to him!

Also, I forgot that Kay Bailey Hutchinson is no longer running for Senate...maybe Texas can get a blue senator? Eh? Eh?
 
R

RockTurtle

Member
saw an elderly white couple at publix today in miami both boldy wearing romney/biden shirts. in my area this sort of political outlandish behavior is never seen.

this tells me the 1st debate had enough sway that my area is probably going for romney.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
For whatever reason, senators have an easier time jumping into the presidential race than House members do, even though their jobs are fairly similar.

I suppose the Senate deals more with foreign policy than the House does.
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Senator is a more prestigious title than congressman. Your job is more secure and it's easier to make a large impact on a body of 100 than a bod of 400+. The tightness of the club leads to more opportunities, more exposure, and more influence
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Can Obama realistically hold Illinois once Sandy takes out Chicago?

–----------------

I am getting pretty pessimistic about the house. It was looking good in September but the generic ballot only looks to be up 2 now which is almost certainly not enough. At this point the main goal is to dispatch as many tea clowns as possible, and hope for a miracle.

Senate should be good fun on election night though. So many close ones with just enough of an advantage. Still can't believe Dems are picking up the cycle.

I'll put 56-57 seats as slightly more likely than House majority at this point.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Diablos brings up a great point guys. Has there been anyone - either at the government or university level - studying solutions to how to cast and count ballots without the use of electricity? You'd think this would be a top priority for a nation reliant on local and national voting procedures?
 
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