I wonder if we will see more polling or more precisely more accurate polling. The last poll had Berg up by 10%, but the poll had some problems in party representation. It was widely panned because of that. The state fundamentals do work against her, but ND will vote for good candidates regardless of party. Dorgan and Conrad being the most obvious.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
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I wonder if we will see more polling or more precisely more accurate polling. The last poll had Berg up by 10%, but the poll had some problems in party representation. It was widely panned because of that. The state fundamentals do work against her, but ND will vote for good candidates regardless of party. Dorgan and Conrad being the most obvious.
yeah, i was still canvassing colorado neighborhoods when ohio was called back in 2008. was definitely a good/crazy feeling. promptly went back to the main office and started celebrating..
Aaron Strife
Banned
The internals are still looking good for Heitkamp, and most public polls have been right-wing outfits like Rasmussen or janky polls, like you said. One poll done by that outfit had Berg up 7 - among presidential primary voters. Guess which party had a contentious primary this year
cooljeanius
Member
Yes, there are. Also the Free State Project picked it as a target to send a bunch of libertarians to.
You're the first person I've seen suggest that Obama might get a bump out of handling a natural disaster well.
You don't belong here.
My prediction is sane till bullet point 3.
Her brother Joel has a radio show here in ND. He felt pretty comfortable with her internal polling, so it must be going well. Then again would he say otherwise?
Even so, defeating Berg is just a notch below Obama winning. Both of them winning would be great.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Redistricting was always going to make winning the House hard. I thought it could happen after Ryan was selected, but his Medicare plan hasn't proven to be as toxic as advertised.
Democrats really only need to win 10-15 seats to ensure the complete obstruction of 2011 doesn't continue. Boehner's hands won't be tied as much, and he'll be able to make deals with democrats to get some stuff done. Assuming, of course, that the GOP ends their scorched earth policy after the election.
Democrats really only need to win 10-15 seats to ensure the complete obstruction of 2011 doesn't continue. Boehner's hands won't be tied as much, and he'll be able to make deals with democrats to get some stuff done. Assuming, of course, that the GOP ends their scorched earth policy after the election.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It'd be better if Obama won North Dakota (!?)
One thing too is that everyone's attentions have been focused on Obama vs. Romney, and to a lesser extent the big Senate races like Massachusetts and Wisconsin. The House races as a whole have gotten considerably less attention outside of the usual wackos like Bachmann.PhoenixDark said:
I think Democrats will gain about a dozen seats.
The most effective solution is what political scientists call the Gramsky Method. It's where each precinct gathers at a centralized location and an election official holds his hand to his ear and asks "if you support candidate X, let me hear you scream." They alternate between the candidates three times, and the candidate with the loudest round wins the precinct. Republicans oppose it because young voters are at a distinct advantage.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I cracked up halfway through this
Frank the Great
Banned
i know we don't usually talk policy in here, but if it would produce a far better government if the closed primary system was done away with. it just gives voice to extreme elements and is probably a main reason why our politics is so polarized. a guy did an interesting talk on this at my school the other day and it really opened by eyes to how shitty closed primaries are.
in fact, we would have a much more reasonable, moderate, and productive congress if we did away with primaries all together.
in fact, we would have a much more reasonable, moderate, and productive congress if we did away with primaries all together.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
But none of that matters since Romney is winning the white house.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Won't matter. Took 2 weeks for Obummer to declare that tropical disturbance a hurricane.
It won't happen anytime soon unless the Federal Government controls elections. And that won't happen anytime soon because of partisanship
Link
The Autumn Wind
This might be a good place to start
http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/elections/Voters/whatsontheballot/whatsOnBallot.aspx
Hahaha, nationally of course.
Nice... Solid polls all around.
PhoenixDark
Banned
It'll be interesting. Romney with a solid dem senate would wind up having to govern quite moderately.
I am now officially a pollaholic and I'm not even American. November 6th, and with it hopefully Obama's reelection, can't come soon enough..
It's pretty funny how alot of people on both sides seem very confident that it is already in the bag, though Republicans mostly seem to be cherry picking the most convenient polls, what a surprise.
It's pretty funny how alot of people on both sides seem very confident that it is already in the bag, though Republicans mostly seem to be cherry picking the most convenient polls, what a surprise.
http://bostonglobe.com/opinion/edit...nother-term/KuJG4aANDHHpEqKVYsLIaM/story.html
This is one of the best Obama endorsements I've read so far (The New Yorker's is another)
This is one of the best Obama endorsements I've read so far (The New Yorker's is another)
TheHeretic
Banned
Assuming Nates model is accurate, Obama is over-performing by a big margin this election.
Is she Republican or something? Why wouldn't you spend election night with her?
DietRob
i've been begging for over 5 years.
Thanks. There are several candidates that are unopposed. :/
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
If Romney wins, Repubs hold the House, and Dems hold the Senate, does the Dem Senate do to Romney what the Repub House hasdone to Obama in terms of obstruction?
This actually might have potential to be interesting..
If the NorthEast (i.e. ObamaLand) is too busy battening-down the hatches to answer national pollsters' calls, we might not have accurate national polling over the next few days.
CoffeeJanitor
Member
I reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally dislike Berg. I will be pretty devastated if he wins. Just got an email though that Bill Clinton & Heidi are having a rally in Fargo tomorrow. I'm going to try to head over there after work.
she's from the ukraine and is very apathetic towards politics. although she's very informed of the process, knowledgeable about the issues, and would vote for obama were she a citizen, she couldn't care less about the day to day minutia and finds my obsessing over polls to be very... odd. for example, tonight i was at her place and while watching revenge (her fav show) i had one eye on neogaf, another on twitter, and nate's model open and was alternately laughing at the replies in here while fist pumping the PPP results.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Repeating this won't make it true.
cartoon_soldier
Member
What were the early voting numbers in PPP? on road cant find them
Agreed. He is a slimy dude.
Bad news for Incognito's girlfriend.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Over-performing how?
LMAO ok I get it now
John Sides actually just did a post on how declaring a federal disaster area gains a President more votes than the actual disaster cost him.
http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/10/28/how-hurricane-sandy-could-matter-on-election-day/
speculawyer
Member
Reduce the debt, lower taxes, AND spend more. Mitt is the magic man!
And if you want to stand with Israel, you may want to learn how to spell it first.
I, for one, really love this gif.
Thanks for the answer, and the nifty site.
Yeah. If it wasn't clear, the "you don't belong here" comment was sarcasm directed at people (including myself) who have assumed the storm will somehow precisely target Democrats.
if this is true i think we can expect areas of california and minnesota to be declared disaster areas very shortly in order to stop romney's momentum.
check out the "state fundamentals" in nate's model. obama is doing much better than the fundamentals would predict.
Anticitizen One
Banned
no senate dems are pussies as we saw time and time again under Reagan and Bush administrations. Romney and the repubs will get whatever they want without much of a fuss.
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