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[Cybit]

Not in a debate. Cruz is a master debater and would tear her apart. Master as in he was a national champion in undergrad. I think he's the last person you'd want against her on the national stage where voters can be swung based on performance.

That's my biggest fear in a Cruz vs Hilary general election. Cruz would seem like he has no chance, but he could easily destroy anyone in the debates and make it very, very close.

 

[Retromelon]

Posted?

A few days back in fact, by our very own bdubs. Yes i do read this board too much

I don't think I fully understand Daniel B's latest post. If someone can make a Sparknotes version that'd be cool, then again I don't exactly care enough that I really need one.

Basically, hillary is corrupt and bernie is our only hope

 

[Makai]

@RandPaul Breaking Fox News Iowa poll has us in 5th place. Yet another reason to be on main debate stage

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Not in a debate. Cruz is a master debater and would tear her apart. Master as in he was a national champion in undergrad. I think he's the last person you'd want against her on the national stage where voters can be swung based on performance.

I don't think you've ever seen HRC in a debate. There's a reason she stomped the Benghazi committee for 10 hours straight. Clinton regularly outplayed Obama in the '08 primary debates to the point that many Dems thought we wasn't ready for the general election. The two best political debaters in our generation are probably Clinton and John Kerry.

 

[kess]

If debate skills really swung the Republican electorate, Bush shouldn't have won a second term.

 

[Cheebo]

So I think this DMR poll with Cruz on top is an outlier. CNN poll is definitely in the realm of a general Trump lead just like countless other polls, which makes it more acceptable. This poll however has Cruz overpolling by 20 points from the trend. Something is definitely off. It could be the start of a Cruz flavor in Iowa. I'm not doubting Cruz' staying power but remember, Carson was leading Iowa for weeks. But we need more polling out of Iowa.

DMR poll is the golden standard in Iowa. Absolutely no chance it's an outlier. It is the most realiable poll in primaries, no question.

 

[Retromelon]

On the subject of ted cruz's debate skills:
http://wonkette.com/583519/ted-cruzs-college-years-portrait-of-a-young-ahole

Goolsbee and other top debaters on the circuit who frequently beat Mr. Cruz discovered it was easy to get under his skin, especially with humor. “It would unravel him,” Mr. Goolsbee said.

In one round, Mr. Goolsbee pointed out that the story of Mr. Cruz’s father coming to America, as compelling as it sounded, was not entirely relevant to, say, the federal deficit.

“How dare you insult my father!” Mr. Cruz replied.

If theres anything i've learned from praying for bernie to dismantle hillary for like three debates now, it's that her defenses to attack are nigh impregnable. She's that damn polished.

 

[Cybit]

I don't think you've ever seen HRC in a debate. There's a reason she stomped the Benghazi committee for 10 hours straight. Clinton regularly outplayed Obama in the '08 primary debates to the point that many Dems thought we wasn't ready for the general election. The two best political debaters in our generation are probably Clinton and John Kerry.

HRC is really good - but Cruz is on a different level potentially

Cruz graduated cum laude from Princeton University with a Bachelor of Arts in Public Policy[ from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs in 1992. While at Princeton, he competed for the American Whig-Cliosophic Society's Debate Panel and won the top speaker award at both the 1992 U.S. National Debating Championship and the 1992 North American Debating Championship. In 1992, he was named U.S. National Speaker of the Year, and with his debate partner David Panton won Team of the Year. Cruz and Panton would later represent Harvard Law School at the 1995 World Debating Championship, losing in the semi-finals to a team from Australia. Princeton's debate team named their annual novice championship after Cruz.

Even in Harvard Law he was considered insanely smart among his peers there.

 

[Teggy]

There's a difference between a competitive debate and a presidential debate. Cruz uses very obvious tactics (don't answer the question, bring up unprovable yet emotional anecdote, blame the media, etc.) and a properly prepared opponent should be able to tear him down easily if the goal is swaying independents and democrats.

 

[Y2Kev]

You can't compare what I'm assuming is some format of Lincoln-Douglas Debate with a televised presidential debate.

edit: That is not to say I do not think Cruz would be great in a debate. He would be. I do not accept that he would "tear [HRC] apart".

 

[Daniel B·]

I don't think I fully understand Daniel B's [post=189023372]latest post[/post]. If someone can make a Sparknotes version that'd be cool, then again I don't exactly care enough that I really need one.

All hope at TYT was stolen by Lessig.

Hillary, despite enthusiastically serving on the board of Walmart from 86 to 92 (bonus video link, below), and previously championing past and present trade deals, that have gutted the Middle Class of the United States, any narrative that suggests she is anything other than a terrible role model for a politician, "is lying to you!".

Along with Elizabeth Warren (if she were running, I would support her, just as enthusiastically), Bernie is one of the few politicians who got into politics, not for the prestige or personal gain, nor to do the bidding of corporations and the elites, but to try and make a difference in lives of everyday Americans. They have both already made a great contribution, but Bernie has the potential to achieve so much more.

Bonus YT video: Hillary Clinton on Walmart (courtesy of ABC ).

 

[Holmes]

Cruz winning Iowa (with Trump in a respectable second) and doing decently everywhere else is the perfect ingredient for a Trump/Cruz ticket. If we're also doing avatar bets on the ticket, not just the nominee, I would go all in on Trump/Cruz.

Daniel B, I don't... know... what? Warren supports Clinton either way.

 

[Yellowtail]

I keep hearing Cruz is some debate god, but I've not seen any actual evidence of it to date. Not that I wouldn't gladly watch him eat Rubio's lunch in a winnowed field.

Besides debates are as much about optics as they are policy. Gore schooled Bush on policy but his endless sighing confirmed the perception that he was a smug bore. Similarly Obama's first 2012 debate performance played into all the long-held criticisms of his leadership (too aloof, professorial and weak). Cruz might technically get the better of Clinton on a few points but he's inevitably going to look like a smarmy asshole next to her on stage. He takes her biggest weaknesses - that she's too Nixonian by half and only likeable enough - right off the table. He'll make her look as charming as Bill.

 

[User 406]

The cognitive dissonance that will emerge when Bernie starts stumping for Hillary is going to be a sight to see.

I mean, by definition, he really really pinky-swear cares about the American people, so if he says "vote for Hillary", it will by definition be the right thing to do! Anyone else who contradicts him is lying to you!

 

[RastaMentality]

Is the whole Cruz "master debater" narrative only applicable to him being in a two-way race? Because I haven't seen anything that special in all of this primary's debates.

 

[Manmademan]

You can't compare what I'm assuming is some format of Lincoln-Douglas Debate with a televised presidential debate.

edit: That is not to say I do not think Cruz would be great in a debate. He would be. I do not accept that he would "tear [HRC] apart".

you really can't compare *any* kind of point based academic debate to a televised presidential debate, primary or general.

one of those is based on debate rules, policy, etc.

the other one is entirely about what kind of impression you give to the lowest common denominator who happen to be tuning in.

Trump and Carson are AWFUL debaters, but are widely considered to have "won" just about every debate that's been held, if we look at post debate poll numbers- no matter what the media says about whose arguments were actually better.

Is the whole Cruz "master debater" narrative only applicable to him being in a two-way race? Because I haven't seen anything that special in all of this primary's debates.

Agree here. Cruz is a very good politician, but I haven't seen much from him in the primary debates that would indicate he's really much of a threat here. Part of this MAY be Cruz simply keeping his head down just enough to avoid attracting fire, but really my inclination here is that ted cruz comes off as smarmy and unlikeable when he's speaking in that format.

Rubio and Fiorina have actually been much better here, but neither of those two seems to have the ability to leverage strong debate skill into improving their campaign.

 

[Plinko]

Guys, all I meant was the election would be hilarious.

Interesting stuff about his debate skills, though.

 

[Cheebo]

All hope at TYT was stolen by Lessig.

Hillary, despite enthusiastically serving on the board of Walmart from 86 to 92 (bonus video link, below), and previously championing past and present trade deals, that have gutted the Middle Class of the United States, any narrative that suggests she is anything other than a terrible role model for a politician, "is lying to you!".

Along with Elizabeth Warren (if she were running, I would support her, just as enthusiastically), Bernie is one of the few politicians who got into politics, not for the prestige or personal gain, nor to do the bidding of corporations and the elites, but to try and make a difference in lives of everyday Americans. They have both already made a great contribution, but Bernie has the potential to achieve so much more.

Bonus YT video: Hillary Clinton on Walmart (courtesy of ABC ).

What are you going to do when Bernie endorses Hillary?

 

[Basileus777]

DMR poll is the golden standard in Iowa. Absolutely no chance it's an outlier. It is the most realiable poll in primaries, no question.

I don't doubt the DMR poll, but that's not how it works, even reputable pollsters have outliers.

 

[RustyNails]

DMR poll is the golden standard in Iowa. Absolutely no chance it's an outlier. It is the most realiable poll in primaries, no question.

I am pretty sure the Cruzmentum is happening. But I think DMR is overstating it by a big margin.

 

[Daniel B·]

The cognitive dissonance that will emerge when Bernie starts stumping for Hillary is going to be a sight to see.

I mean, by definition, he really really pinky-swear cares about the American people, so if he says "vote for Hillary", it will by definition be the right thing to do! Anyone else who contradicts him is lying to you!

Given Trump's "gravity defying" level of support, if the Democratic party cares more about holding onto the White House, than getting their anointed candidate elected, they should re-evaluate their position, soon, because, if she wins the nomination, the day after the celebrations, the level of support she would achieve in the GE, will be like a barren wasteland, in comparison to Bernie's eternally optimistic supporters.

 

[Makai]

Trump opposes Scalia's anti-affirmative action comments.

 

[Teggy]

Trump opposes Scalia's anti-affirmative action comments.

Going for that 100% black vote.

 

[Daniel B·]

What are you going to do when Bernie endorses Hillary?

Move back to the UK? Oh wait, David "fracking" Cameron is Blair on steroids. Become a monk? I already have the frugality aspect down .

 

[Black Republican]

Randy made it!

Cruz next to Trump omg

Christie makes a comeback!

Bush is still there!

 

[dramatis]

Will Cruz do low fives with Trump tho

 

[Veritigo_X]

Trim off the two candidates on each end and we've got a debate.

 

[B-Dubs]

Randy made it!

Cruz next to Trump omg

Christie makes a comeback!

Bush is still there!

Bullshit, Paul is still in it? He needs to go away and never come back, he's like a much shittier version of his father and everyone knows it.

 

[PBY]

A 10+ person stage isn't a debate. It's random shouting and moderators trying to corral the rabble into some semblance of a coherent topic/discussion.

 

[B-Dubs]

A 10+ person stage isn't a debate. It's random shouting and moderators trying to corral the rabble into some semblance of a coherent topic/discussion.

In fairness, that's a 9 person debate. Paul and Kasich do need to get off that stage though, Paul especially since he has nothing interesting to say.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Bullshit, Paul is still in it? He needs to go away and never come back, he's like a much shittier version of his father and everyone knows it.

lol that is the sentiment I've been feeling.

I'm surprised Carson is hanging in there. I guess he has just enough of a strong base to keep him in the top 3. I expected his numbers to collapse after the big polling drop.

 

[Mike M]

There's a dozen better way to conduct these debates. At the very least, do a top half/bottom half split. A four person undercard for a 10 person main event is just silly.

 

[Incognito]

Cruz is just this cycle's santogrich. Chillax dudes.
.

No he's not. He's the real deal, with a lot of $$ and the strongest organization out there. He's mentioned how his campaign is specifically modeled on Obama's 2008 campaign and so far he's replicating it to a T. And I don't see anything to indicate that's he's just the flavor of the month.

 

[Mike M]

No he's not. He's the real deal, with a lot of $$ and the strongest organization out there. He's mentioned how his campaign is specifically modeled on Obama's 2008 campaign and so far he's replicating it to a T. And I don't see anything to indicate that's he's just the flavor of the month.

That's the scary part. It was inevitable that the GOP would learn, but we sure could have used some of that 2012 Orca-level mix of complacency and incompetence for a few more cycles.

 

[Coriolanus]

And I don't see anything to indicate that's he's just the flavor of the month.

Ymean aside from him only surging after jeb fell, carson fell, rubio failed to rise significantly, and Cruz only being in the lead in Iowa?

 

[B-Dubs]

That's the scary part. It was inevitable that the GOP would learn, but we sure could have used some of that 2012 Orca-level mix of complacency and incompetence for a few more cycles.

Except he's too big an asshole to take advantage of it.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Oh great. We are scared by Cruz now. Hillary please save me.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Bullshit, Paul is still in it? He needs to go away and never come back, he's like a much shittier version of his father and everyone knows it.

Ron Paul had some interesting ideas and some crackpot ideas.

Rand Paul takes the crackpot ideas and replaces the interesting ideas with GOP party-line bullshit.

 

[RDreamer]

Randy made it!

Cruz next to Trump omg

Christie makes a comeback!

Bush is still there!

God, how is there still this many fucking people.

I really don't know if I have it in me to watch another one of these. Might wait until there's like 3 left and tune in again.

 

[reggieandTFE]

Not in a debate. Cruz is a master debater and would tear her apart. Master as in he was a national champion in undergrad. I think he's the last person you'd want against her on the national stage where voters can be swung based on performance.

He couldn't even really out-debate Ellen Page and his positions are incredibly extreme.

 

[Mike M]

Oh great. We are scared by Cruz now. Hillary please save me.

Yeah, I would be fucking terrified of a Cruz presidency, but I'm not scared that he'd get it. I'd be more just surprised if he won anything beyond Iowa.

 

[RustyNails]

No he's not. He's the real deal, with a lot of $$ and the strongest organization out there. He's mentioned how his campaign is specifically modeled on Obama's 2008 campaign and so far he's replicating it to a T. And I don't see anything to indicate that's he's just the flavor of the month.

I think Cruz is a flavor, meaning, a protest against Trump. Carson was the 2nd flavor (after Fiorina for a week). After Carson melted under the spotlight, half his supporters migrated to Cruz thereby inflating his numbers. Carson's fixed ceiling is now 15% and he won't climb further. In my understanding, if Cruz or Rubio are to become the frontrunners, they will need to suck in all of Trump's numbers, not Carson's. From the looking at the state of the polling, Trump's numbers (apart from the DMR poll) are looking fairly consistent despite Cruz' rise.

Trump 27 (up 4 since late Oct)
Cruz 22 (up 12)
Rubio 15 (up 4)
Carson 11 (down 18)
Bush 7 (down 1)
Fiorina 5 (up 2)

 

[Tarkus]

He couldn't even really out-debate Ellen Page and his positions are incredibly extreme.

Can't compare that to how he would debate HRC. Page ambushed him barbecuing at a fair I believe, though I haven't seen the video of this.

If Cruz is the candidate, I'm not voting.

 

[tmarg]

I don't understand why they don't increase the requirements to qualify for the main debate. It's obvious they need to narrow the field, and it's not like anyone is going to miraculously come back from <2% in the polls to win.

 

[RustyNails]

He couldn't even really out-debate Ellen Page and his positions are incredibly extreme.

I disagree. Cruz is a really good debater, in the sense of 'gotcha' style debating. He can weave his policy proposals in a flowery, anti-Washington, anti-Obama prose. He's definitely an extremist, but he can make his proposals sound good to audience. If you ask him a question, he probably will not answer it and instead go on a related script about how terrible Washington/Obama/Liberals are. The difference between him and Rubio is that Rubio doesn't have much experience will make you dream big, but Cruz brings the red meat and has lots of experience. If you throw both of them off script, Cruz is better positioned to pick himself up and Rubio isn't.

He's a showman, and in the era of 2 hour debates with 10 candidates, you need as much showmanship as possible to standout. Also I was listening to NPR a few weeks ago and they concluded through a study that Cruz uses the most complex sentences during debates, even above Hillary.

 

[B-Dubs]

Also I was listening to NPR a few weeks ago and they concluded through a study that Cruz uses the most complex sentences during debates, even above Hillary.

That's not exactly good. Being able to simplify your ideas so that they're easily understood is a good thing. It shows understanding. Cruz always comes off as that guy in class that never bothered studying and is just bullshitting his way through an oral presentation.

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

Guys pls stop. Cruz would do even worse than Trump nationwide.

 

[Coriolanus]

I don't understand why they don't increase the requirements to qualify for the main debate. It's obvious they need to narrow the field, and it's not like anyone is going to miraculously come back from <2% in the polls to win.

Currently? Pet theory is "we need to set this up in a way that wont end up excluding jeb even after he loses more support".

Makes a whole lotta sense when you tinfoil that they doing what they can not to axe him.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I disagree. Cruz is a really good debater, in the sense of 'gotcha' style debating. He can weave his policy proposals in a flowery, anti-Washington, anti-Obama prose. He's definitely an extremist, but he can make his proposals sound good to audience. If you ask him a question, he probably will not answer it and instead go on a related script about how terrible Washington/Obama/Liberals are. The difference between him and Rubio is that Rubio doesn't have much experience will make you dream big, but Cruz brings the red meat and has lots of experience. If you throw both of them off script, Cruz is better positioned to pick himself up and Rubio isn't.

He's a showman, and in the era of 2 hour debates with 10 candidates, you need as much showmanship as possible to standout. Also I was listening to NPR a few weeks ago and they concluded through a study that Cruz uses the most complex sentences during debates, even above Hillary.

He's got the classic pre-written line of bullshit down pat. Takes too long to unravel and by that point the audience is already internalizing the quip as legitimate. Anytime you have to explain why something is technically not a lie but still untrue, you're losing. You have to force him to reorient to the context of your discussion/issue, otherwise he'll just go through the routine.

 

[Suikoguy]

I don't understand why they don't increase the requirements to qualify for the main debate. It's obvious they need to narrow the field, and it's not like anyone is going to miraculously come back from <2% in the polls to win.

In December, yeah. Being at <2%, you are not coming back from that.