PoliGAF 2016 |OT4| Tyler New Chief Exit Pollster at CNN

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Macho Madness said:
The last Marquette poll (February)

Trump 30
Rubio 20
Cruz 19
Kasich 8
Carson 8

Sanders 44
Clinton 43

So both Sanders and Clinton gained some support over the past month but Sanders gained a little more.

And for Republicans, this seems to be as a result of the winnowing field.
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Bernie supporters on a FB group called 'the other 98' are losing their minds. either they are feeling the bern, or they are sounding like Alex Jones followers talking about conspiracies with Clinton
 
Nate might end up being right. The party will decide.

They'll just decide against what the voters decided.

On a much much much less desirable alternative.
 
ThLunarian said:
I don't understand where many Sanders supporters are getting this narrative that the corporate media is trying to downplay his chances of winning the nomination. Aren't they actually propping him up more than he deserves, just based on polling and the math, in order to make the race seem closer than it is?

From what basis are they deriving this idea that the media is conspiring to make him lose?

I voted for him in my primary and all, and I don't regret my decision, but man these people need a reality check.
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If you believe that Sanders has a great chance to win, then obviously the media is downplaying his chances to win by reporting that he has a very slim chance to win.

Snowman Prophet of Doom said:
I mean, he's also very lazy and stingy when it comes to politics, though, and I don't think he'd invest millions in a third party run where he DEFINITELY won't win, whereas he at least has a shot, however small, as a Republican candidate. I think he'd probably do everything he could to fuck the Republicans over as a private citizen if he got passed over for the nomination, including, as you say, inciting riots and protests through various proxies, but I don't know that he'd run third party because it's a 100% guaranteed loss, whereas simply burning the Republican party to the ground and torching their chances up and down the ticket is both a "win", personally, and doesn't require him to actually lose, electorally.
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It's a very difficult question, honestly.

Ultimately there's a game theory aspect to the whole thing. If Trump threatens repeatedly to run third-party and then they steal the nomination from him, and he doesn't then run third-party, then he's burned all his negotiation power. No reason for any GOP people to listen to him ever again.

If he wants to maintain any political power, he has to follow through on his threat.

So what are his priorities? Nobody knows. Maybe not even Trump knows!
 
blackaroni said:
Ummm...

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/715244637410041856
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7bOaTaW.jpg
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Keep it up Trump!
 
Well, there was that former Trump aide who came out and said his plan was to come in 2nd - maybe this is his last ditch attempt.
 
68gOd6c.jpg
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Here's my extremely uneducated guess about what Hillary v Trump looks like. I might be crazy in thinking Montana will be in play, but I think it is much more similar to Colorado's demographics than Idaho and Utah's.
 
America was having trouble
What a sad, sad story
Needed a new leader to restore
Its former glory
Where, oh, where was he?
Where could that man be?
We looked around and then we found
The man for you and me

LEAD TENOR STORMTROOPER:
And now it's...
Springtime for Trump and America
'Merica is happy and gay!
We're marching to a faster pace
Look out, here comes the master race!
Springtime for Trump and America
'Merica's a fine land once more!
Springtime for Trump and America
Watch out, World
We're going on tour!
Springtime for Trump and America...

CHORUS:
Look, it's springtime

LEAD TENOR STORMTROOPER:
Winter for Europe and Iran

CHORUS AND STORMTROOPER:
Springtime for Trump and America!

CHORUS:
Springtime! Springtime!
Springtime! Springtime!
Springtime! Springtime!
Springtime! Springtime!

STORMTROOPER:
Come on, Americans
Go into your dance!

STORMTROOPER "Bubba":
I was born in Kentucky und that is why they call me Bubba.

STORMTROOPER "MEL":
Don't be stupid, be a smarty, come and join the Trump party!

ULLA:
The President is coming, the President is coming, the President is coming!

STORMTROOPER #1:
Heil Trump!

STORMTROOPER #2:
Heil Trump!

LEAD TENOR STORMTROOPER:
Heil Trump!
Springtime for Trump and America

ALL:
Heil Trump!

Trump:
Heil myself
Heil to me
I'm the businessman
Who's out to change our history
Heil myself
Raise your hand
There's no greater
President in the land!
Everything I do, I do for you!

CHORUS:
Yes, you do!

Trump:
If you're looking for a war, here's World War Threee!
Heil myself
Raise your beer

CHORUS:
'Merical!

Trump:
Ev'ry hotsy-totsy Trumper stand and cheer

CHORUS:
Hooray!
Ev'ry hotsy-totsy Trumper...

Trump:
Heil myself!

CHORUS:
Ev'ry hotsy-totsy Trumper...

Trump:
Heil myself!

CHORUS:
Ev'ry hotsy-totsy Trumper...

Trump:
...stand and cheer!

THE HEIL-LOs:
The President is causing a furor!
He's got those Russians on the run
You gotta love that wacky hun!
The President is causing a furor
They can't say "no" to his demands
They're freaking out in foreign lands
He's got the whole world in his hands
The President is causing a furor!

Trump:
I was just a paper hanger
No one more obscurer
Got a phone call from the FOX and Friends
Told me I was President
America was blue
What, oh, what to do?
Hitched up my pants
And conquered France
Now America's smiling through!
But it wasn't always so easy...
It was 2016. Cruz was working the Big Room and I...
I was playing the lounge. And then I got my big break.
Somebody burned down the Capitol. And, would you believe it?
They made me President. President!
It ain't no myst'ry
If it's politics or hist'ry
The thing you gotta know is
Ev'rything is show biz
Heil myself
Watch my show
I'm the American fascist man
Dontcha know
We are crossing borders
The new world order is here
Make a great big smile
Ev'ryone sieg heil to me
Wonderful me!
And now it's...

CHORUS:
Springtime for Trump and America
Goose-step's the new step today

Trump:
Springtime!
Goose-steps!

CHORUS MEN:
Bombs falling from the skies again

CHORUS:
Deutschland is on the rise again

Trump & CHORUS:
Springtime for Trump and America
U-boats are sailing once more
Springtime for Trump and America

Trump:
Means that...

CHORUS:
Soon we'll be going...

Trump:
We've got to be going...

CHORUS:
You know we'll be going....

Trump:
You bet we'll be going...

Trump & CHORUS:
You know we'll be going to war!!
 
pigeon said:
It's a very difficult question, honestly.

Ultimately there's a game theory aspect to the whole thing. If Drumpf threatens repeatedly to run third-party and then they steal the nomination from him, and he doesn't then run third-party, then he's burned all his negotiation power. No reason for any GOP people to listen to him ever again.

If he wants to maintain any political power, he has to follow through on his threat.

So what are his priorities? Nobody knows. Maybe not even Drumpf knows!
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Trump is in a unique position right now because he's actually not establishment (Cruz and Sanders are full of it since they're both politicians). He has no reason to maintain bridges anywhere in this political world. He can torch it all and go back to his actual businesses (and if he ever does another season of the Apprentice the ratings will be insane). He's not going to need to maintain civility to get some Fox News anchor spot, or a cushy consulting job. The RNC has literally no leverage here.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
Starting to believe he won't be the nominee folks. He's gone off the deep end over the last month, after presumably telling GOP figures he'd calm down (see: reserved debate performances). The rally violence completely destroyed his attempt to pretend to pivot for the general.
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You think the GOP primary voters are going to disagree with a guy saying illegal abortions should be punished? Are we looking at the same base?
 
Trump needs to win New York big to get back in the game after Wisconsin. I think he can probably sweep it, and it'll help him going into the April 26 contests. I actually think, based off of his performance on NoVA and DC, Maryland might not be great for him.
 
So, is Trump just Poe's Law come to life, or what? The Producers joke is looking less and less like a joke. I don't even know what to say any more.

What's scary is he's guaranteed to still get 1/3 of the vote. Good lord.
 
Bam Bam Baklava said:
You think the GOP primary voters are going to disagree with a guy saying illegal abortions should be punished? Are we looking at the same base?
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No, primary voters love this stuff. But at this point I think the party will do anything in its power to deny him the nomination at the convention. Assuming of course that he doesn't get to the magic number of delegates.
 
Has this been discussed?

Donald Trump on Wednesday fired back at Hillary Clinton, remarking that he would likely nominate Supreme Court justices who “would look very seriously at her email disaster.”

The former secretary of state has been under fire over her use of a private email server during her time at the State Department and called out the Republican front-runner in a speech Monday highlighting the impact the Supreme Court should have on this election. Clinton invoked Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. and asked Wisconsin voters what kind of justice a President Trump would nominate.

“Well, I’d probably appoint people that would look very seriously at her email disaster because it’s a criminal activity, and I would appoint people that would look very seriously at that to start off with,” Trump said in a phone interview with ABC's “Good Morning America.” “What she’s getting away with is absolutely murder. You talk about a case — now that’s a real case.”

The New York billionaire added, “If she’s able to get away with that, you can get away with anything.”


Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...reme-court-clinton-email-221377#ixzz44Pq2MWIj
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook
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Uhhh..that's not how the SCOTUS operates...

He doesn't even know what the Supreme Court does. Like...what the fuck. Right now, so-called leaders of the Party either don't know how the SCOTUS works or how The Fed works and this fucking scares the shit out of me.
 
Samarecarm said:
Honestly, the latter. The job of the US president, as a political office, is to represent the US and its interests.

I've got nothing against, say, France or Japan, and I would fully expect them to elect leaders that represent their own interests, but it's not the job of the US President to look out for them.

It's like how if you hire a lawyer, the lawyer's job is to represent your interests in court, not to try to "be fair" in general.

edit: eek, top of page!
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Thanks for the answer!

I guess my reasoning is that, while we all want our own countries to be successful, we also all want the planet to be alright (I assume). I'm just not convinced that we'll collectively make the right decisions for the planet at large if we're all acting selfishly. Basically, the problem of externalities writ large. There are some things I think we'd be better at if we were all working cooperatively and I'm not confident that we will do those things if they don't align with US interests.
 
LyleLanley said:
"The context for Trump's comments: He was asked if there should be punishment for abortions IF they are illegal." - @SopanDeb

Ce0XVGdUAAADtsN.jpg
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Context for the context of Trump's comments: Trump is running an anti-abortion platform and has vehemently declared that he is pro-life, which logically requires abortion to be banned through a legislative mechanism, and hence rendered illegal.
 
Also, if they do decide to steal the nomination from Trump, I want them to go all in. Full fuckery. The most chaotic, insulting, blatant way possible. Don't do the roll call, call for a vote by affirmation, then when Trump clearly gets the most ayes, have Paul ignore it and nominate someone else.

Then...the shit show.
 
EskimoJoe said:
Also, if they do decide to steal the nomination from Trump, I want them to go all in. Full fuckery. The most chaotic, insulting, blatant way possible. Don't do the roll call, call for a vote by affirmation, then when Trump clearly gets the most ayes, have Paul ignore it and nominate someone else.

Then...the shit show.
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You know it's going to be bad when Republicans are hiding in a gun-free zone.
 
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