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[Diablos]

Oh look. Trump is acting all Presidential now. Just enough time to hammer away at it and make Americans start to forget about how big of an asshole he is. We're good at that.

If you count by square miles, Bernie won New York!

These people are doing so much harm to party unity. It's fucking stupid.

 

[Black Republican]

i love gaf

 

[Y2Kev]

NBC News' beat reporter on the Sanders campaign, Kasey Hunt, is now reporting on other things (she's at the RNC rules committee meeting). Looks like Sanders is losing beat coverage. Wrap. it. up.

 

[CCS]

NBC News' beat reporter on the Sanders campaign, Kasey Hunt, is now reporting on other things (she's at the RNC rules committee meeting). Looks like Sanders is losing beat coverage. Wrap. it. up.

Would you say Sanders is receiving a beat down?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I didn't realize I was part of Wall Street being a software engineer in Rochester

Rochester surprised me because we have a huge college population.

 

[Mrs. Manky]

Bernie is a friend to all birds!

Yeah, except -

3 majestic white birds.

1 puny brown bird.

Right. That little brown bird, yo. That's the Killer Mike Bird. That bird is all "Run The Seeds!"

I'm sure the artist would say that the little brown bird represents the original bird that landed on the podium, and the white birds are doves standing for peace. But this person has already failed at understanding the concept of population density, so who knows?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Apparently James O'Keefe has made a video about the Arizona primary, and a Bernie friend sent an article about it to me. "Hillary campaign under investigation in Arizona." Technically true, but not enough facepalm memes in the world to reply with.

I linked him the O'Keefe's wiki page, hopefully that ends that.

 

[PBY]

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434411/gop-convention-party-unity

LMAO National Review stays holding onto the rope

If Trump fails to get 1,237 delegates – still the most likely outcome – that will mean the voters collectively failed to find a unifier. That failure is the alarm that calls the firefighters – i.e., delegates — to duty. Whether they pick Cruz or Kasich or someone else, it will not be some undemocratic “theft.” It will be their effort to do their job: unify the party. I wish them luck.

 

[shinra-bansho]

What about the kind of attractive MSNBC Bernie beat guy? Did they pull him too. Disarray.

 

[Diablos]

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434411/gop-convention-party-unity

LMAO National Review stays holding onto the rope

If Trump fails to get 1,237 delegates – still the most likely outcome – that will mean the voters collectively failed to find a unifier. That failure is the alarm that calls the firefighters – i.e., delegates — to duty. Whether they pick Cruz or Kasich or someone else, it will not be some undemocratic “theft.” It will be their effort to do their job: unify the party. I wish them luck.

They'd be dumb not to pick Kasich. Still think it could happen.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

They'd be dumb not to pick Kasich. Still think it could happen.

Picking Kasich would be really stupid. They'd alienate both Cruz and Trump voters.

Kasich is probably the worst thing they could possibly do, because he alienates the most amount of voters and has the least to show for his electibility.

Most voters want the GOP to pick whoever has the most delegates, whether they personally support the candidate or not. Going against that will turn a lot of voters away from the party and probably severely hurt turnout.

 

[Plinko]

Picking Kasich would be really stupid. They'd alienate both Cruz and Trump voters.

Kasich is probably the worst thing they could possibly do, because he alienates the most amount of voters and has the least to show for his electibility.

Most voters want the GOP to pick whoever has the most delegates, whether they personally support the candidate or not. Going against that will turn a lot of voters away from the party and probably severely hurt turnout.

I don't agree. These people will eventually see it is him or Hillary, who they irrationally hate, and will all fall in line.

 

[Maledict]

I think I may be being dumb, but browsing the Sanders Reddit and various posts - are all the candidates down ticket he's throwing his weight behind just for the primaries? None of it seems to be about actually electing democrats, every race I look at is a primary fight against other democrats?

 

[Farmboy]

Jonathan Chait had a good piece on this the other day. I especially enjoyed this sentence:

Perhaps Republican officials fear the chaos and perceived illegitimacy of denying the nomination to the plurality winner, or they find Cruz no more palatable (or not sufficiently more attractive to be worth fighting for).

I think that's key, and we'll see a lot of establishment figures make that same calculation between the California primary and Cleveland, if Trump fails to secure 1,237: that the strife of a contested convention isn't worth it if it ends with Cruz as the nominee. Might have been worth it if they could get Rubio, or Kasich, or even Ryan or Romney, but that's not happening. And between 'Trump + somewhat normal convention' or 'Cruz + bedlam', they prefer the former.

So I'm guessing we'll see enough (surprising) Trump endorsements after June 7th that it will become clear Trump will win on the first ballot.

 

[Sibylus]

I don't agree. These people will eventually see it is him or Hillary, who they irrationally hate, and will all fall in line.

Or the party finally succumbs to its deathblows... which is what Trump as the nominee probably means anyway. May as well pass over the Great Dictator and Dracula and try a comparatively palatable third option, nothing lost at the worst.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I don't agree. These people will eventually see it is him or Hillary, who they irrationally hate, and will all fall in line.

If Cruz or Trump have the candidacy stolen by someone who won one state, they'll just straight up start campaigning against Kasich. It'll be a GOP civil war. Neither are going to just sit back and tell their supporters to vote for Kasich, neither really care at all about party loyalty and have no reason not to just burn the whole thing down, since they got cheated.

It's different than the Bernie or Bust crowd, because for them, you can point out that "hey, Hillary won the popular vote and had the most delegates" and eventually they'll come around to that idea because nothing really wrong or foul went on (beyond conspiracy theories).

With Kasich, something foul will have gone on, and arguments against not supporting him will be well founded.

Kasich also can't win on his base alone. He has to court some independents, minorities, and even some Democrats (like Bush did), and stealing the election from Trump or Cruz wouldn't do that at all.

 

[Y2Kev]

Manafort is doing An amazing job but it's too late to play the delegate game for contests already held. Trump has to be focused on Indiana and getting those unbound PA delegates. If he does those, Cruz is done.

 

[Diablos]

I don't agree. These people will eventually see it is him or Hillary, who they irrationally hate, and will all fall in line.

It would be like poetry as it would be in his own state.

 

[CCS]

I'm praying for a Trump win. Just imagine, with Trump as the candidate the Dems might even manage to take the House as well as the Senate. Imagine the Republicans having to watch as the Democrat they hate more than any other passes whatever she wants and they can't stop her. It'd be so beautiful.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I think that too many delegates are Cruz loyalists for Kasich to win. Cruz has been playing the delegate game with uncanny skill. The rules won't change without the support of the rules committee, which is going to be populated with a lot of Cruz and Trump loyalists. They'll have no reason to change the rules, which means that (provided Cruz can get a delegate majority in one more state, I think he's only at 7) those two will be the only ones eligible for a vote.

But I do agree that Kasich would be the smartest move for the GOP if they could pick him. Sure, they'd piss off a huge section of the party, since 80% of people didn't vote for him. But the question is really "would the base fall in line for another Romney in order to stop another Obama (or worse)?" I think the answer is yes.

Anyway, I'm still predicting Trump wins it, and I think he'll win it with a pledged delegate majority.

 

[plagiarize]

I think that too many delegates are Cruz loyalists for Kasich to win. Cruz has been playing the delegate game with uncanny skill. The rules won't change without the support of the rules committee, which is going to be populated with a lot of Cruz and Trump loyalists. They'll have no reason to change the rules, which means that (provided Cruz can get a delegate majority in one more state, I think he's only at 7) those two will be the only ones eligible for a vote.

But I do agree that Kasich would be the smartest move for the GOP if they could pick him. Sure, they'd piss off a huge section of the party, since 80% of people didn't vote for him. But the question is really "would the base fall in line for another Romney in order to stop another Obama (or worse)?" I think the answer is yes.

Anyway, I'm still predicting Trump wins it, and I think he'll win it with a pledged delegate majority.

That's still a losing scenario for them. Obama handily beat Romney let's not forget.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

That's still a losing scenario for them. Obama handily beat Romney let's not forget.

Well, to be frank, I'm not convinced that the GOP has a winning scenario this year. But if they do, I think it's through Kasich. He polls well against Clinton. Sure, it's likely in large part due to the media ignoring him. And likely those numbers would drop as the country got to know him better. But there's a slim chance there, and no chance with Trump or Cruz.

 

[plagiarize]

Well, to be frank, I'm not convinced that the GOP has a winning scenario this year. But if they do, I think it's through Kasich. He polls well against Clinton. Sure, it's likely in large part due to the media ignoring him. And likely those numbers would drop as the country got to know him better. But there's a slim chance there, and no chance with Trump or Cruz.

He's far too aggressive with his anti abortion tactics to win the female vote. I'm not sure about other demographics, but I can't imagine it being favorable for him.

 

[Fenderputty]

Yeah, I can see Southern Cali not being too Bernie friendly. He is getting less likely to win the dam nom, isn't he?

You're just figuring this out?

 

[Veritigo_X]

You're just figuring this out?

Don't mention what Carson's been up to lately.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

He's far too aggressive with his anti abortion tactics to win the female vote. I'm not sure about other demographics, but I can't imagine it being favorable for him.

I think you're likely right. But I would see Kasich as a Hail Mary move. Trump and Cruz are as close to guaranteed losers as there are. But Kasich is uncertain. There are tons of ways voters could reject him. But if I've got three options and I know two are definite losers and one is a probable loser, I know who I'd pick.

That is, if their rules will allow them to, which I doubt.

And that also is, if no one gets a pledged majority, which I doubt.

 

[Outdoor Miner]

Listening to an NPR report about Trump's Dubai golf course. Holy shit this is damning. Its from a special airing on Vice tonight "Trump In Dubai".

 

[PBY]

If I'm Trump I just go al in with Cruz hates gay people. Just blast that everywhere.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Trump should be attacking Cruz for his remarks about how mathematically eliminated candidates should drop out.

It should be a bullet point every time he mentions Cruz.

"Lyin' Ted, you know, he said people who are mathematically eliminated should drop out. And guess what, he's eliminated! Sad"

 

[Orbis Tabula]

If I'm Trump I just go al in with Cruz hates gay people. Just blast that everywhere.

I'd go all in with being the only candidate that isn't mathematically eliminated. I think people are sympathetic to arguments about rules and fairness. Granted, people whining about unfair rules do look like losers sometimes.

I've been wondering lately if another debate would be good for Trump. They've all seemed to help him so far, and it would give him an opportunity to address a shit ton of people with "I'm the only one left in the race who can mathematically win this."

 

[Plinko]

If I'm Trump I just go al in with Cruz hates gay people. Just blast that everywhere.

I mean, all it would take is 30-second commercials detailing his advisers and how horrible they are as people.

 

[Fenderputty]

Don't mention what Carson's been up to lately.

Well he did just beat Cruz in a couple NY districts so there's momentum lol

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

They'd be dumb not to pick Kasich. Still think it could happen.

lol, Kasich hasn't won a state other than his home state.

Putting him as the nominee is asking for a civil war in the party.

Cruz isn't worth the insanity of stealing it away from Trump, I seriously think that they will just let Trump have it if he's close enough and try to evacuate everyone to the fallout bunker and weather the storm the best they can.

 

[Veritigo_X]

They'd be dumb not to pick Kasich. Still think it could happen.

As far as I can tell, Kasich is running more of a food tour than a presidential campaign.

 

[Giant Panda]

Backslash you seem to be focusing solely on the complexity due to the need to define income and ignoring the complexity from deductions and other issues.

 

[Macho Madness]

The New York Exit Polls were so wrong because they over sampled young voters

FIX: So the New York issue, I can't help but notice that you said that younger people are more likely to fill out the surveys and then also that Sanders was over-represented in the initial estimate. Do you think there's a link there?

LENSKI: Oh, yes, there's definitely a link there.

We're adjusting for that throughout the day. As I said, we know the response rate in our 35 precincts. We know that younger voters are more likely to choose to fill out the questionnaire than older voters, and that's typically the case so we're already making those adjustments.

Obviously in this case, that was even more than normal. As soon as we started getting sample precinct returns, we made that adjustment even more so that we'd match the actual result.

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Yeah, I can see Southern Cali not being too Bernie friendly. He is getting less likely to win the dam nom, isn't he?

You sound like my brother in law. Get real.

It's over.

My Facebook is filled with let Bernie run as an independent shit now too.

 

[BotoxAgent]

How Hillary Clinton Became a Hawk

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/magazine/how-hillary-clinton-became-a-hawk.html?_r=0

all my bernie Facebook friends keep sharing this NY Times article, but I get the feeling most of them just saw the unflattering headline and went to town

 

[Plumbob]

I didn't realize I was part of Wall Street being a software engineer in Rochester

Rochester surprised me because we have a huge college population.

You think there's hope and change at RIT?

 

[dramatis]

You think there's hope and change at RIT?

No

 

[Sianos]

Remember: if Romney couldn't successfully pivot for the general election, then Trump most assuredly will not be able to.

His high name recognition and boisterous screaming about walls and banning Muslims that got him this far will be his downfall in the general.

And come November, he will blame the GOP downticket not fully uniting around him for his loss and rally the neoreactionaries to sunder the party to protect his ego.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

You think there's hope and change at RIT?

Maybe? I don't know. I even went there, and I don't really remember much of the politics of the college other than it being extremely gay friendly. I didn't live on campus, so I missed out on a lot of stuff that wasn't just school related.

Just figured they were the right demographic. There's also UofR and MCC.

I figured the former Kodak engineers probably outnumbered them, and they seem like they'd be Hillary supporters.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Alright, PoliGAF. State lotteries. Great way for states to raise revenue? Or a cruel tax on the poor and uneducated? Celebration of citizens right to spend money on whatever they want? Or predatory monopoly run by the state? What say you all?

 

[Plinko]

Alright, PoliGAF. State lotteries. Great way for states to raise revenue? Or a cruel tax on the poor and uneducated? Celebration of citizens right to spend money on whatever they want? Or predatory monopoly run by the state? What say you all?

I will never understand the "cruel tax on the poor and uneducated" argument.

 

[fantomena]

I hope Bernie stays as long as possible. He's the only reason Im following the election on the democratic side. He give some hope that Amerrica might someday get a true leftist as president.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Shatting on Bernie until yas queen wins

 

[CCS]

Alright, PoliGAF. State lotteries. Great way for states to raise revenue? Or a cruel tax on the poor and uneducated? Celebration of citizens right to spend money on whatever they want? Or predatory monopoly run by the state? What say you all?

I'm generally in favour of lotteries. Can raise a good amount of money and in all honesty it's not that much money to play, even if you are poor. I possibly prefer the National Lottery in the UK where the Lottery is a charity rather than it feeding directly into government coffers, because that does create some perverse incentive systems.

 

[User 406]

How Hillary Clinton Became a Hawk

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/magazine/how-hillary-clinton-became-a-hawk.html?_r=0

all my bernie Facebook friends keep sharing this NY Times article, but I get the feeling most of them just saw the unflattering headline and went to town

It just now occurs to me to wonder who Clinton would pick as her Secretary of State.

 

[dramatis]

Maybe? I don't know. I even went there, and I don't really remember much of the politics of the college other than it being extremely gay friendly. I didn't live on campus, so I missed out on a lot of stuff that wasn't just school related.

Just figured they were the right demographic. There's also UofR and MCC.

I figured the former Kodak engineers probably outnumbered them, and they seem like they'd be Hillary supporters.

I was surprised Hillary got all the major cities of NY except for Albany, to be honest. Particularly Monroe County (Rochester). It's possible that students couldn't vote because they didn't register to the local county or they couldn't reach polling station. RIT is in the middle of nowhere because they thought it would be a splendid idea to build the ROCHESTER Institute of Technology campus outside of Rochester.

How Hillary Clinton Became a Hawk

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/magazine/how-hillary-clinton-became-a-hawk.html?_r=0

all my bernie Facebook friends keep sharing this NY Times article, but I get the feeling most of them just saw the unflattering headline and went to town

I read through the whole thing, and I actually think it's an interesting article that works well paired with Foreign Policy's "The Hillary Doctrine". You see to see multiple sides of Hillary Clinton's foreign/army services policies.

The wonderful contradictions of Hillary's portrayals in the media is business as usual.

 

[Veritigo_X]

I hope Bernie stays as long as possible. He's the only reason Im following the election on the democratic side. He give some hope that Amerrica might someday get a true leftist as president.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Shatting on Bernie until yas queen wins

One day we'll be like Europe. We're even getting our own racist far right party! We're getting there!

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I don't agree. These people will eventually see it is him or Hillary, who they irrationally hate, and will all fall in line.

I think that too many delegates are Cruz loyalists for Kasich to win. Cruz has been playing the delegate game with uncanny skill. The rules won't change without the support of the rules committee, which is going to be populated with a lot of Cruz and Drumpf loyalists. They'll have no reason to change the rules, which means that (provided Cruz can get a delegate majority in one more state, I think he's only at 7) those two will be the only ones eligible for a vote.

But I do agree that Kasich would be the smartest move for the GOP if they could pick him. Sure, they'd piss off a huge section of the party, since 80% of people didn't vote for him. But the question is really "would the base fall in line for another Romney in order to stop another Obama (or worse)?" I think the answer is yes.

Anyway, I'm still predicting Drumpf wins it, and I think he'll win it with a pledged delegate majority.

I've got a few Trump supporters in the family, and they'll all leave the box blank and just vote down-ticket (if they go at all) if Trump isn't the nominee. They held their noses for Romney, but since he lost, it's a given that Kasich would lose too. Since he'll lose anyway, if he's at the top of the ticket, they're going to send a message to the party that they could've avoided this had they picked Trump.

Basically, if you're the party, you have to choose between 1) Trump, and you get blown out, but send a message to your irrational base that they're wrong about what the majority wants or 2) Not-Trump (doesn't matter who), and you kick this can down the road and deal with it again in 2020.

They'd be idiots to pick 2). They were idiots to do it with Romney. Should've sacrificed some Tea Party guy to Obama's second term (burn his incumbent advantage on a loser anyway) and then try to take the WH now against a non-incumbent.