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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
neurosisxeno said:
They lost for more simple reasons. McCain had the illusion of old and the worst VP in modern history. Romney lost because he was out of touch and by being a conservative in the primaries had to run away from any accomplishments he had.

The other issue is they basically radicalized the right by convincing them Obama had a radical liberal agenda, so the only way to fight back was to go further right. You can't have candidates spend 6-12 months being hardcore conservative and 3-4 being a moderate trying to win then General.
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The primary system has hurt the GOP way more than the Democrats admittedly in the last few elections.

McCain lost because he was facing a once in a generation campaigner and orator. Let's be honest, I think McCain wrecks HRC (mostly because I think he doesn't get convinced to go Palin against HRC) in the General Election.
 
D

dramatis

Member
I'll watch the rebuttal tomorrow. State of the union was fantastic, Obama going out strong.

Judging from the comments here, the republicans already hate the rebuttal? Maybe Trump can offer to be the real voice of conservatives.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cybit said:
The primary system has hurt the GOP way more than the Democrats admittedly in the last few elections.

McCain lost because he was facing a once in a generation campaigner and orator. Let's be honest, I think McCain wrecks HRC (mostly because I think he doesn't get convinced to go Palin against HRC) in the General Election.
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No way, 2008 was the Dem's election to lose. Between Iraq and the financial crisis it was a perfect electoral storm for them.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
B-Dubs said:
No way, 2008 was the Dem's election to lose. Between Iraq and the financial crisis it was a perfect electoral storm for them.
Click to expand...

I think it was closer than people like to admit. W definitely helped the Dems going into 2008 - but had McCain not shifted so hard to the right during the primary, I think he would have had a really good chance of beating HRC. (I worked for Obama when he was in the IL Senate and the US Senate run, so you can guess who I voted for)
 
HUELEN10

HUELEN10

Member
johnsmith said:
Was this posted yet?

Jeb Bush ad - Boots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC6H-8hktFE
wa1OpSu.png
Click to expand...

That is not a Jeb Bush as, didn't you read the fine print towards the end?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cybit said:
I think it was closer than people like to admit. W definitely helped the Dems going into 2008 - but had McCain not shifted so hard to the right during the primary, I think he would have had a really good chance of beating HRC. (I worked for Obama when he was in the IL Senate and the US Senate run, so you can guess who I voted for)
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The financial crisis would have ruined McCain, all the same.

But it would have been closer, sure.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Aaron Strife said:
The financial crisis would have ruined McCain, all the same.

But it would have been closer, sure.
Click to expand...

Is it bad that a little part of me at the time wanted a GOP candidate to win (when we thought HRC would win the primary) just so they would get stuck with the consequences of GWB's idiocy? I wanted to believe that the economy fully crapping during a GOP president's reign would destroy the GOP for a generation. Thankfully Obama won, though.

That, and being from IL, I wanted Obama to come back and be governor in IL; we sort of needed it (and still do). Many of us were also terrified something would happen to him on the campaign trail.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
Cybit said:
Is it bad that a little part of me at the time wanted a GOP candidate to win (when we thought HRC would win the primary) just so they would get stuck with the consequences of GWB's idiocy? I wanted to believe that the economy fully crapping during a GOP president's reign would destroy the GOP for a generation. Thankfully Obama won, though.

That, and being from IL, I wanted Obama to come back and be governor in IL; we sort of needed it (and still do). Many of us were also terrified something would happen to him on the campaign trail.
Click to expand...

Thankfully it didnt took much more for the GOP to destroy itself for a generation (in the presidential level, at least). And thank god Obama didnt settle for Illinois. Him winning changed politics forever in the US. The left was reborn thanks to Obama.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Melkr_ said:
Thankfully it didnt took much more for the GOP to destroy itself for a generation (in the presidential level, at least). And thank god Obama didnt settle for Illinois. Him winning changed politics forever in the US. The left was reborn thanks to Obama.
Click to expand...

If the left was reborn thanks to Obama why do they think he's a sellout shill?
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
If the left was reborn thanks to Obama why do they think he's a sellout shill?
Click to expand...

He is getting Batman´d. These ultra liberal kids cant even understand how much credit Obama deserves for changing the political field.

Its like what happened to Thatcher when the a part of the right started to hate her even when her politics made the traditional Labour Party to destroy itself.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Cybit said:
Many of us were also terrified something would happen to him on the campaign trail.
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I remember people saying for a certainty that Obama would be assassinated even a year into his first term.

There were always two types of people who'd say this, people who (whether they supported him or not) were genuinely fearful for the man's life and 100% certified assholes who wanted to rub it in as many peoples' faces as they could.

My sister was of the former and was actually considering voting for McCain because of it.

Maybe a little early, but thank God for the secret service.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Aaron Strife said:
I remember people saying for a certainty that Obama would be assassinated even a year into his first term.

There were always two types of people who'd say this, people who (whether they supported him or not) were genuinely fearful for the man's life and 100% certified assholes who wanted to rub it in as many peoples' faces as they could.

My sister was of the former and was actually considering voting for McCain because of it.

Maybe a little early, but thank God for the secret service.
Click to expand...

There's an email chain among many of his IL Senate staffers as well as folks who worked on the US Senate campaign talking about this. We were all terrified. I know a couple of the staffers (who were much closer to the Obamas) went and actually talked to Michelle about it. Hell, I even made a comment about it to Barack directly the day he announced he was running for President.

(This was when there was significant scuttlebutt that Colin Powell's wife had squashed him running for the presidency in '96 due to the same fear)
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
It's funny how people went from worrying about winning in 2008 and 2012 to this inexplicable hubris of not only thinking 2016 is a sure thing, but that any candidate at all can win easily.

I truly worry that people are in for a rude awakening.
 
U

User1608

Banned
HylianTom said:
Holy shit, considering the mood of the GOP base for this cycle, this ad (courtesy of a Cruz SuperPAC) is rough as fuck on Marco:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOjFoSVgrX4

Talk about no lube and no kiss.. daaamn..
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Damn, I can feel the viciousness.
Cybit said:
There's an email chain among many of his IL Senate staffers as well as folks who worked on the US Senate campaign talking about this. We were all terrified. I know a couple of the staffers (who were much closer to the Obamas) went and actually talked to Michelle about it. Hell, I even made a comment about it to Barack directly the day he announced he was running for President.

(This was when there was significant scuttlebutt that Colin Powell's wife had squashed him running for the presidency in '96 due to the same fear)
Click to expand...
Ah, yeah, I also had the same fear even as an ignorant teenager. Even I knew racial hatred was still alive and well. A black man running for POTUS definitely amplified the threat level.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bam Bam Baklava said:
It's funny how people went from worrying about winning in 2008 and 2012 to this inexplicable hubris of not only thinking 2016 is a sure thing, but that any candidate at all can win easily.

I truly worry that people are in for a rude awakening.
Click to expand...

The only one worried about 2012 was diablos. Had McCain not gone insane he probably would have been OK, no where near as good as Obama though but you get the idea. Romney I actually worry about, no way that would have gone well in regard to income inequality.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
Cybit said:
The primary system has hurt the GOP way more than the Democrats admittedly in the last few elections.

McCain lost because he was facing a once in a generation campaigner and orator. Let's be honest, I think McCain wrecks HRC (mostly because I think he doesn't get convinced to go Palin against HRC) in the General Election.
Click to expand...

No way. Once Lehman crashed, no Republican had a shot.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cybit said:
The primary system has hurt the GOP way more than the Democrats admittedly in the last few elections.

McCain lost because he was facing a once in a generation campaigner and orator. Let's be honest, I think McCain wrecks HRC (mostly because I think he doesn't get convinced to go Palin against HRC) in the General Election.
Click to expand...

Do we live in different universes that are somehow connected through NeoGAF?

No Republican was winning in 2008. In fact, the only reason the election appeared to be up for grabs in the media was because Obama was black. Bradley effect and all that. Obama winning in 2008 had almost nothing to do with being a great orator and campaigner. A wet fart would have defeated McCain. Oh, and the Democrats took back the House in 2006 because of it, but somehow this isn't an indication of what's coming?

In my reality in 2008, Iraq was a giant quagmire that also hurt the war in Afghanistan. The economy collapsed and was heading into the worst recession almost anyone alive would ever experience. And this was after numerous years where the economy outside of the military industrial complex was already contracting or stagnating.

There was no way in fucking hell a Republican was winning. McCain was thrown up there like a lamb to a slaughter. His decision to pick Palin was not a cause of his undoing but rather an act of desperation to fire up the conservative base. The election was lost before he was ever nominated.

In fact, I firmly believe Hillary would have destroyed McCain by much bigger margin that Obama. I think Hillary gets pretty much all of Obama's vote (she's still breaking a ceiling) but also a bunch of whites that still voted McCain due to racism or that didn't vote for the same reason. And the GOP would have been even less motivated to show up (hey we might win cuz will people really vote a black dude in!?!?).

Not to mention, Hillary's case in 2008 was far greater than today. "In 2000, my husband left office and the country was great. Then Bush took over and now it's in shambles. So, here I am, me and Bill, to fix things up again."

And you think that would lose to John McCain during an epic GOP failure in Iraq, Afghan, and a collapsing economy. L. O. Fucking. L.


Obama won the primary because of his skills. But the General was never in doubt. The only question is if it would be a blowout or a demolition.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
I was out for the evening, did the Republican Governor of North Carolina seriously go after the Republican front runner for president during the rebuttal to the SOTU? What a time to be alive
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Ugh, I managed to miss the State of the Union. Had a seizure (the first I've had in five and a half months) earlier. Ended up missing most of the day. :(

I'll watch it online later but it's not the same....
 
D

danm999

Member
Officerrob said:
I was out for the evening, did the Republican Governor of North Carolina seriously go after the Republican front runner for president during the rebuttal to the SOTU? What a time to be alive
Click to expand...

Look all she said was "during anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist that temptation" and that America should continue accepting "properly vetted legal immigrants, regardless of their race or religion."

That could have been aimed at ANYONE!
 
E

East Lake

Member
SOTU was kind of embarrassing to watch imo. Not saying Obama is a bad speaker or he was bad here but I have a really hard time listening to the theatrics and bloviating that it requires.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
East Lake said:
SOTU was kind of embarrassing to watch imo. Not saying Obama is a bad speaker or he was bad here but I have a really hard time listening to the theatrics and bloviating that it requires.
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Sounds like a problem with a very easy solution, don't watch it. You already know what you're going to get.

In other news, we are 1 point away from the tipping point. The day when Donald Trump leads or ties for the lead in predictwise for the first time.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-republican-nomination/
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
M

Mrs. Manky

Banned
Elaugaufein said:
The difference is how people perceive themselves , And that's significant. As an example: I know a conservative who donates to World Vision but is supportive of locking refugees who arrive by boat up in abysmal conditions. The recipients / victims are both non-white. The difference is how the person perceives themselves "Helping someone in need" vs "Defending the borders" / "Keeping out economic migrants". That difference in self-perception leads to radically different actions. You get much more support for being horrible to the Other when you can justify it (even if the justification is bullshit) because people in general don't like to see themselves as bad or cruel or unjust even to the Other.

I never suggested anything about the politicians responsible, I don't think I even mentioned them in anything more than passing as an enabler. So I don't see how I'm being disingenuous.
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Okay. You are considering the self-perception of the people who do these things. I suppose I'm more concerned with the results of their actions. Because other people have to deal with those actions. Because I have to deal with those actions. And on that end, rationalizations are meaningless. Those refugees don't know that your conservative acquaintance is a charitable person, and they won't care if all they hear from him is "I think you should get locked up when you get here."
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Mrs. Manky said:
Okay. You are considering the self-perception of the people who do these things. I suppose I'm more concerned with the results of their actions. Because other people have to deal with those actions. Because I have to deal with those actions. And on that end, rationalizations are meaningless. Those refugees don't know that your conservative acquaintance is a charitable person, and they won't care if all they hear from him is "I think you should get locked up when you get here."
Click to expand...

If you can understand how things shape self-perception you can change actions. There's nothing you can do to convince someone who just hates black people outright, there are things you can do to convince someone who's more willing to believe black people are abusing the system and that should be punished even if that willingness comes from racism. It's what Clinton tried with Welfare Reform and Tough on Crime , even if I think his actual methods there were god awful.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
danm999 said:
Those Trump second choice numbers aren't great.
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Not great? They put him ahead of everyone except Cruz in one of his worse states! Besides, Trump is trending better relative to Cruz; Cruz fell by way more than the margin of error from the last Selzer Iowa poll. He may not need those second choices to clinch a narrow Iowa victory, which is what he needs for his media narrative.
 
D

danm999

Member
Crab said:
Not great? They put him ahead of everyone except Cruz in one of his worse states! Besides, Trump is trending better relative to Cruz; Cruz fell by way more than the margin of error from the last Selzer Iowa poll. He may not need those second choices to clinch a narrow Iowa victory, which is what he needs for his media narrative.
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They're not great in the context of him challenging Cruz in Iowa.

Obviously it will be very easy for Trump to play off an Iowa loss as inconsequential nationally; I'm pretty sure I made that point in this thread at some point today.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Carson dropping out would probably be the first huge get for the other candidates. still 10% in Iowa and 7-8% nationally is pretty amazing for non politician with questionable foreign policy
 
D

danm999

Member
Carson is the only candidate I get not dropping out because he's the only candidate that seems to be nakedly in there to sell books and raise his profile. Don't see why he wouldn't hang around for months.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
I know everyone's joked about the 'Rubio surge' but I think the biggest danger for Trump - other than his supporters not turning out - is the possibility of Rubio getting a late Edwards-esque break at the very end (I'm discounting everyone else as dead). There's still a pool of moderate caucus-goers in Iowa and close to a majority haven't made up their mind yet. Trump will survive if he maintains second place though.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Black Republican said:
Carson dropping out would probably be the first huge get for the other candidates. still 10% in Iowa and 7-8% nationally is pretty amazing for non politician with questionable foreign policy
Click to expand...

Carson dropping out would guarantee a Cruz win in Iowa, IMO. Carson's last vestiges of support is basically just some hardcore evangelicals holding out.
 
U

User 406

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
If the left was reborn thanks to Obama why do they think he's a sellout shill?
Click to expand...

If Bernie ends up as President, they'll do the same to him. The reality of governance just doesn't fit their fantasy West Wing scenario where the right wing gets brutally shamed by cutting dialogue from their rockstar candidate while all the policies they want get passed by magic TV political treknobabble writing.

I remember this one young guy on irc who was the biggest Obama mark you ever saw, the world was gonna change, fierce urgency of now, this is our time, political revolution, etc, etc, right up until the PPACA was passed. Then it was all he let us down, sellout, the corporations got to him, why do I gotta buy insurance I'm healthy this is bullshit, politics sux, democrats sux, and so on. I asked him if he voted for any other offices besides President, he said no. My eyes rolled up into my head so hard they sit higher on my face permanently now.

Thankfully, this is a pretty small and irrelevant segment of the electorate. They're loud and embarrassing, but they can't cause that much damage.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Sea Manky said:
If Bernie ends up as President, they'll do the same to him. The reality of governance just doesn't fit their fantasy West Wing scenario where the right wing gets brutally shamed by cutting dialogue from their rockstar candidate while all the policies they want get passed by magic TV political treknobabble writing.

I remember this one young guy on irc who was the biggest Obama mark you ever saw, the world was gonna change, fierce urgency of now, this is our time, political revolution, etc, etc, right up until the PPACA was passed. Then it was all he let us down, sellout, the corporations got to him, why do I gotta buy insurance I'm healthy this is bullshit, politics sux, democrats sux, and so on. I asked him if he voted for any other offices besides President, he said no. My eyes rolled up into my head so hard they sit higher on my face permanently now.

Thankfully, this is a pretty small and irrelevant segment of the electorate. They're loud and embarrassing, but they can't cause that much damage.
Click to expand...

There are Sanders supporters like this. Thankfully, it's a fraction of Sanders' support, there simply aren't enough people like this to be attracting ~40% of the Democratic primary vote.
 
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