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[NeoXChaos]

Looking at those numbers. Why should Jeb, Christie and Kasich draw anchor when Rubio can't beat Cruz or Trump in a 3-way race? Better to take OH(Kasich) and FL(Jeb) and fight all the way to Clevelend where no one gets a majority.

 

[B-Dubs]

Looking at those numbers. Why should Jeb, Christie and Kasich draw anchor when Rubio can't beat Cruz or Trump in a 3-way race? Better to take OH(Kasich) and FL(Jeb) and fight all the way to Clevelend where no one gets a majority.

Problem there is that once Trump starts winning he won't stop. I'd put money, I have put money, on the fact that he knows how to ride momentum better than anyone he's currently running against.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Looking at those numbers. Why should Jeb, Christie and Kasich draw anchor when Rubio can't beat Cruz or Trump in a 3-way race? Better to take OH(Kasich) and FL(Jeb) and fight all the way to Clevelend where no one gets a majority.

Honestly, if I was a GOP establishment figure, I would push for a brokered convention and give it to Kasich. Just because Trump would then run as a third party, his supporters would be whipped up into a fury, turn out in mass numbers... and all be voting for Republican at Senate and House level; same as Kasich's. You'd be conceding the presidency, but you ain't getting it anyway, and you would 100% secure the Senate.

 

[HylianTom]

Problem there is that once Trump starts winning he won't stop.

Bumps aren't going to be big, but every little bump that comes with a victory is going to get him closer and closer to that winning percentage.

Pinch me.

 

[B-Dubs]

Honestly, if I was a GOP establishment figure, I would push for a brokered convention and give it to Kasich. Just because Trump would then run as a third party, his supporters would be whipped up into a fury, turn out in mass numbers... and all be voting for Republican at Senate and House level; same as Kasich's. You'd be conceding the presidency, but you ain't getting it anyway, and you would 100% secure the Senate.

The problem there is that Trump won't be running to win, but to fuck with the GOP. That's what they're afraid of, the damage he could potentially do to them for an entire generation.

EDIT: Speaking of my bet on Trump, my money has almost doubled at this point.

 

[Basileus777]

Honestly, if I was a GOP establishment figure, I would push for a brokered convention and give it to Kasich. Just because Trump would then run as a third party, his supporters would be whipped up into a fury, turn out in mass numbers... and all be voting for Republican at Senate and House level; same as Kasich's. You'd be conceding the presidency, but you ain't getting it anyway, and you would 100% secure the Senate.

I'm not sure how you push for that. First they need to keep Trump from getting a majority, but even then, how are they going to get Trump and Cruz selected delegates to vote for Kasich of all people? Wang wrote about this a bit in his latest article:

Finally, if no candidate gets to an outright majority, the convention becomes genuinely suspenseful. Party insiders should not necessarily be consoled by this idea. Delegates are usually selected for loyalty to their candidate. If current trends were to persist, the convention floor in Cleveland would be filled with close to 1,000 Trump delegates. These delegates won’t be from the usual pool of party loyalists. They seem like an unpromising starting point for elites to work their magic.

 

[User 463088]

Something I heard today at the grocery store:

Trump's not racist, he just don't like Mexicans.

(Grammar neither corrected nor exaggerated.)

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm not sure how you push for that. First they need to keep Trump from getting a majority, but even then, how are they going to get Trump and Cruz selected delegates to vote for Kasich of all people? Wang wrote about this a bit in his latest article:

Right, Trump and Cruz delegates are going to be insane people who will compromise on nothing.

 

[watershed]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC6H-8hktFE

I'm surprised Jeb!'s campaign is capable of making something as effective as this.

 

[Makai]

I'm surprised Jeb!'s campaign is capable of making something as effective as this.

That's his PAC

 

[Black Mamba]

Honestly, if I was a GOP establishment figure, I would push for a brokered convention and give it to Kasich. Just because Trump would then run as a third party, his supporters would be whipped up into a fury, turn out in mass numbers... and all be voting for Republican at Senate and House level; same as Kasich's. You'd be conceding the presidency, but you ain't getting it anyway, and you would 100% secure the Senate.

You do run the risk of them voting Trump and no one else and going home.

Or Kasich supporters staying home since the loss is inevitable.

 

[Basileus777]

You do run the risk of them voting Trump and no one else and going home.

Or Kasich supporters staying home since the loss is inevitable.

And then years of the party tearing itself apart as the base buys into a stabbed in the back narrative.

 

[aTTckr]

I am actually starting to believe there's a realistic chance (though still very slim of course) that Trump ends up as president if he completely switches from his current right-wing xenophobic populism to full on economic populism in the spirit of Sanders and other anti-establishment messaging in the general. Even if Sanders somehow were to become the Democratic nominee Trump may beat him with the same economic issues that Sanders champions as he is a far better communicator. This assumes of course that Trump actually has absolutely no ideology whatsoever, or at least willing to adopt any political stance necessary to win.

 

[User 463088]

I am actually starting to believe there's a realistic chance (though still very slim of course) that Trump ends up as president if he completely switches from his current right-wing xenophobic populism to full on economic populism in the spirit of Sanders and other anti-establishment messaging in the general. Even if Sanders somehow were to become the Democratic nominee Trump may beat him with the same economic issues that Sanders champions as he is a far better communicator. This assumes of course that Trump actually has absolutely no ideology whatsoever, or at least willing to adopt any political stance necessary to win.

He can't pivot away entirely. He's said too much crazy shit to be able to do that. One or two things? Sure. His entire candidacy is based around build a wall, deport people, stop the Muslims. The damage he's done with minorities and (to a lesser degree) women is not something he can backtrack from. The Dem nominee can showmethereceipts.jpeg.

 

[Y2Kev]

I have about 20k invested in jeb's certain nomination. He just has too much! The ad campaign is working!

 

[Wilsongt]

After Brownback declared no more medicaid money can be used for Planned Parenthood, the Kansas medical board has cleared PP of any wrong doing when it comes to illegally selling fetus parts.

http://news.yahoo.com/apnewsbreak-kansas-medical-board-clears-planned-parenthood-212155824.html

"After careful review of the investigative materials, the Panel determined no further action would be taken at this time; however the materials will be kept on file and reviewed again in the event future issues arise," disciplinary attorney Dan Riley wrote.

Republican Gov. Sam Brownback called on the board to investigate whether commercial sales of fetal tissue were occurring in Kansas following an anti-abortion group's release of secretly recorded video of Planned Parenthood officials in other states talking about the handling of fetal tissue.

 

[Yellowtail]

He can't pivot away entirely. He's said too much crazy shit to be able to do that. One or two things? Sure. His entire candidacy is based around build a wall, deport people, stop the Muslims. The damage he's done with minorities and (to a lesser degree) women is not something he can backtrack from. The Dem nominee can showmethereceipts.jpeg.

Yeah. I do worry about Trump in a general election (at least more than Cruz). But these new Gallup numbers are encouraging:

Independents hate him (even more so than Hillary), and Democrats will turn out.

 

[Teggy]

Cruz beats Trump 51-43 nationwide? That doesn't seem possible based on all the other polls.

 

[Incognito]

That's his PAC

which makes it even more surprising because mike murphy is the biggest hack out there.

 

[Holmes]

Cruz beats Trump 51-43 nationwide? That doesn't seem possible based on all the other polls.

Doesn't matter because it won't be a two person race until it's too late for Cruz.

 

[User 406]

I am actually starting to believe there's a realistic chance (though still very slim of course) that Trump ends up as president if he completely switches from his current right-wing xenophobic populism to full on economic populism in the spirit of Sanders and other anti-establishment messaging in the general. Even if Sanders somehow were to become the Democratic nominee Trump may beat him with the same economic issues that Sanders champions as he is a far better communicator. This assumes of course that Trump actually has absolutely no ideology whatsoever, or at least willing to adopt any political stance necessary to win.

Nah, the xenophobia is definitely part of his ideology.

 

[Makai]

which makes it even more surprising because mike murphy is the biggest hack out there.

Why do you say that? He's certainly the most entertaining strategist in panels.

 

[Cybit]

I am actually starting to believe there's a realistic chance (though still very slim of course) that Trump ends up as president if he completely switches from his current right-wing xenophobic populism to full on economic populism in the spirit of Sanders and other anti-establishment messaging in the general. Even if Sanders somehow were to become the Democratic nominee Trump may beat him with the same economic issues that Sanders champions as he is a far better communicator. This assumes of course that Trump actually has absolutely no ideology whatsoever, or at least willing to adopt any political stance necessary to win.

I would worry if he gets Clinton as an opponent - as there does seem to be at least a chunk of voters who are anti-establishment enough to go from Sanders to Trump. Also, Trump apparently seems to possess some kind of crazy man charisma that I'd rather not take my chances with at all. Best case scenario for Dems in terms of presidency would probably be a Clinton vs Establishment Republican vs Trump (3rd party) - but I do wonder whether that would hit Dems really, really hard on all of the other elections (since Republican leaning voters would turn out in droves).

Though a Sanders vs Trump election could potentially push the country into 3 party territory.

 

[Plinko]

Yeah. I do worry about Trump in a general election (at least more than Cruz). But these new Gallup numbers are encouraging:

Independents hate him (even more so than Hillary), and Democrats will turn out.

How is Fiorina only a -20 with democrats? HOW?

Also, LOL at Carson still being in double-digits. That campaign is a trainwreck.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

How is Fiorina only a -20 with democrats? HOW?

Also, LOL at Carson still being in double-digits. That campaign is a trainwreck.

These are net numbers so there's probably a lot of people on that list with 20 percent or more people not knowing who they are so they have no opinion.

 

[Yellowtail]

These are net numbers so there's probably a lot of people on that list with 20 percent or more people not knowing who they are so they have no opinion.

Here are the numbers recalculated by familiarity:

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polli...rats-independents-negative-gop-candidate.aspx

 

[Abinash117]

How is Fiorina only a -20 with democrats? HOW?

Also, LOL at Carson still being in double-digits. That campaign is a trainwreck.

I think popularity plays a part Carly is slightly more well liked by the Republicans than Trump, but far more people know about him . I see that as a good thing and it is possible that many Dems know much about Carly to make an opinion.

 

[Black Mamba]

Story behind the Donald Trump Song...lol

Last night's rally for Donald Trump in Pensacola, Florida, was no ordinary rally — it featured a special musical performance by a group called the USA Freedom Kids. Three members of the group, Bianca, Izzy, and Alexis, sang, danced, and synchronized-gestured their way through an original song complete with Trump-themed lyrics such as "Cowardice, are you serious?" "Apologies for freedom — I can't handle this!" "President Donald Trump knows how to make America great," and "Deal from strength or get crushed every time."

One might mistake these lines for something off Trump's Twitter account, but they were written by Jeff Popick, a Florida-based entrepreneur and the manager of USA Freedom Kids. (His daughter, Alexis, is front and center in the video.) "That line was originally going to be about General George Patton," Popick says. "But when Donald Trump announced his candidacy, I was inspired to change it to something more contemporary."

Popick, who calls himself an "independent" and a "free thinker," says the group doesn't take cues from Trump: "We're trying to spread an inspirational message of freedom, so we go to wherever we’re called to do that." There are, however, certain aspects of Trump's platform that appeal to him personally: "I think the single most important job of the president of the United States, without even a close second, is our national security," he says. "I think we need to protect our land, we need to protect our people, and we need to protect our freedom, and that's one of Donald Trump's priorities." He also backs Trump's (vague) economic policies because "he knows what he's doing, and he makes the right decisions."

"I’ve studied Donald Trump personally, and I’ve read every book he’s written, and I think he’s a genius on many fronts," Popick says. "He's always inspired me."

As for the girls, Popick says they just love to perform. "These girls can go to any school and sing the national anthem, they know all the words to the Pledge of Allegiance, and they’re even well on their way to being scholars of the Constitution," he says. "This is the best of America."

He, Bianca, Izzy, and Alexis even got to meet Trump: "It was awesome. I just think he’s a terrific guy. The more you get to know him, the more you understand he’s a real human being with a great heart and a brilliant mind." Popick's been in touch with every single campaign — every Republican campaign, he's quick to clarify — but Trump's was "by far and away the most responsive."

Why no Democrats? "When you have a business you have to identify who the market is, and the Democrats are not our market," he explained. "They don’t seem to really respond to the patriotic call, if you will, in the way the Republicans do. The Republican people, like me, have tears in their eyes when they hear the national anthem. I think you’re either on the side of freedom or you’re not, the Republicans choose that team more than the Democrats do."

So what's next for the now-famous USA Freedom Kids? According to Popick, they're set to release a new album (including some EDM singles) and perform a Memorial Day show. "We have more requests than we can handle at the moment."

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/man-behind-trump-theme-song-loves-trump-freedom.html

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Yeah. I do worry about Trump in a general election (at least more than Cruz). But these new Gallup numbers are encouraging:

Independents hate him (even more so than Hillary), and Democrats will turn out.

Kaisch's favorability with Republicans, ouch.

 

[aTTckr]

Yeah. I do worry about Trump in a general election (at least more than Cruz). But these new Gallup numbers are encouraging:

Independents hate him (even more so than Hillary), and Democrats will turn out.

While I know that Republican primary voters are a special part of the voting population, look at the WSJ/NBC numbers ivysaur posted regarding the dramatic increase of Republican voters who can see themselves supporting Trump. Personally I don't get the appeal of Trump in terms of rhetoric, but he clearly is a great messenger when it comes to low information and otherwise disenchanted voters. I think it is possible for Trump to win a huge part of that population with simultaneous left-wing (of which he has already shown some flashes) and right-wing populism. Adding Sanders' economic policy to a toned down version of his current proposals may end up quite effective in a general election. This combination of left and right should not be that difficult to achieve as they are not that far apart currently anyway.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Sanders campaign have a press conference at 6 PM to announce a "hugeyoog" endorsement. No idea who it'll be, but cue rampant speculation about Warren.

Looks like it's Paul Kirk

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Spoilers: Here's a glimpse at Trump's GE strategy:

26,000 unreported sexual assults in the military-only 238 convictions. What did these geniuses expect when they put men & women together?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/331907383771148288

 

[Holmes]

Looks like it's Paul Kirk

 

[eBay Huckster]

Clinton's attacks here are clumsy but she's not attacking single payer. She's attacking Bernie's plan to get rid of what we have now, in favor of universal health care... being administered by individual state governments. And we saw how that worked out in Republican states with Obamacare. So while it's great for states like New Hampshire or California with Democratic governors, states with Republican governors are fucked. She's also pushing him to releasing his plan to pay for the $15 trillion price tag, because he promised his paid leave plan was the only one in which he would raise taxes on the middle class, but with such a high price tag, well...

Listen, Clinton supports single payer, as do many other Democratic legislators, as well as free tuition, but they're not so naive to promise things that can't be accomplished. The 2009/2010 Obamacare shenanigans weren't that long ago. Do you forget? Sanders is appealing to people's emotions but he's just letting them dream. It's naive.

This is a very late note, and it took me a while to actually notice this subsection in poring through the plan in question, but it turns out that in the event of states with Republicans being assholes, Bernie's plan would've provided for... federally-facilitated single-payer systems. (Subsections (a)(4) and (b)(2).)

Though given that even the state exchanges under the ACA are shuttering because they literally can't handle the operating costs and that state plans under the American Health Security Act would feature substantially higher operating costs by writ of handling a hell of a lot more than the ACA's exchanges, I agree with Human's assessment that the ceding of plan development to the states is kind of bizarre.

 

[ugaboga232]

Most of the doctor's that have spoken to us in class want public healthcare. Just in a few times in the hospital, I can see how most of the super expensive costs come from preventable diseases (also childbirth, but I doubt people will stop that). Don't get me started on drug scheduling or drug development or science funding

 

[Black Mamba]

David Corn with amazing debate questions for candidates tonight of which none will be presented:

A few of them...

Donald Trump

* When you appeared on the talk show of conspiracy theory promoter Alex Jones, you told him that his "reputation is amazing" and added, "I will not let you down." Jones has championed many conspiratorial notions, including that the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School never happened and that the attacks on the World Trade Center were an inside job. So what's "amazing" about him?

Ted Cruz

* You have described Trump's efforts to raise questions about you eligibility to be president—due to your birth in Canada—as a "silly" sideshow. But some of your own supporters, such as Rep. Steve King of Iowa, have questioned whether Obama was born in the United States and whether he is eligible to be president—even though, like you, his mother was indisputably a US citizen. Have King and other conservative birthers engaged in a silly sideshow?

Ben Carson

* More than half of every dollar your campaign has raised has gone into the bank accounts of the consultants you've hired to raise that money. Why should conservatives continue opening up their checkbooks for a cause that's mainly enriching political professionals?

Jeb Bush

* Paul Wolfowitz, a deputy secretary of defense in your brother's administration, was one of the architects of the Iraq War, and prior to the invasion he made a series of predictions about the war that were wildly inaccurate. Why did you sign him up as a foreign policy adviser for your campaign?

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/01/fox-should-ask-these-questions-at-gop-debate

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Just to confirm, ladies and gentlemen, your three Republican frontrunners are Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is struggling against a 74-year-old Jewish socialist from Vermont.

The year is 20XX, the future is here.

How worried do I need to be about this?

 

[User 463088]

Looks like it's Paul Kirk

 

[Aaron Strife]

Those favorable numbers for Trump give me a little relief. Maybe just seeing all the Sanderstans here be like "Sanders or Trump lol!" but it's pretty clear that won't be happening en masse.

Independents are a bigger concern - but Romney won them and lost by 4 nationally so it probably won't even matter.

 

[danm999]

Those favorable numbers for Trump give me a little relief. Maybe just seeing all the Sanderstans here be like "Sanders or Trump lol!" but it's pretty clear that won't be happening en masse.

Independents are a bigger concern - but Romney won them and lost by 4 nationally so it probably won't even matter.

Yes Trump seems to have found his voting bloc pretty early, but I wonder if he's also found his ceiling as well. He seems to be extremely prominent and polarising making me hope his numbers won't exponentially grow.

 

[Daniel B·]

Kyle, from Secular Talk, was all for Obama's (Joe's) new fight against cancer, but I think they both missed a vital component:

This is absolutely the WRONG thing to focus on, assuming we're talking about spending, say a billion dollars, when you could save infinitely more American lives, by switching subsidies from GMO corn, to the production of fresh fruit and vegetables (thus making them affordable, instead of nutrient difficient junk food), which should be grown sustainably, without soil destroying pesticides, such as Roundup. Not only would affordable healthy food choices significantly reduce cancer rates, it would also have a big impact on other major diseases, responsible for the untimely death of many American's, such as heart disease, and type two diabetes.

In addition, we should be forcefully tackling other environmental causes of diseases, such as wanton industrial polution, as highlighted by the recent New York Times article on DuPont's deplorable behavior, for which the E.P.A only gave them a slap on the rist (fine only represented 2% of the associated profits)...

Sure, the VICE story, on what looks like a very promising cancer treatment, is exciting, and of course, not all cancers are caused by environmental factors, but our government should also be budgeting for what is necessary to improve the nutrition of the American people, and our environment, and I know Kyle, you are vocal on these areas, too, and to not mention them, as also a vital weapon against cancer, is an oversight.

P.S. Google tried to stop me posting this on YouTube, from the PS3 browser, but I found a way (Post button doesn't enable - JavaScript to the rescue) .

 

[ugaboga232]

Kyle, from Secular Talk, was all for Obama's (Joe's) new fight against cancer, but I think they both missed a vital component:



P.S. Google tried to stop me posting this on YouTube, from the PS3 browser, but I found a way (Post button doesn't enable - JavaScript to the rescue) .

TBH diet is a huge factor but much harder to change given how much we still don't know about the GI tract/metabolic differences between individuals. Still, cancer is a problem mostly because we live longer than we "evolved" to live so now we have to deal with the shortcomings of the body. There are some really promising immunotherapies that may allow good personalized medicine. NIH could always use money.

 

[Plinko]

In potential future candidates news:

Mitch Daniels spoke at a STEM conference I attended at Purdue University today.

Let's just say the man could never win the presidency.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jeb's camp and Rubio's camp like each other so much:

Bush’s spokesperson, Tim Miller, rejected the notion that the candidate and his backers were taking on Trump solely out of strategic self-interest.

“Jeb has attacked Trump more than anyone,” Miller said. “I am mystified as to why other campaigns have not done so.” He added that Rubio and Chris Christie have mostly held their fire when it comes to Trump because “they are afraid to be attacked.”

Asked to respond, Rubio campaign spokesperson Alex Conant fired back, “I do appreciate the irony of Jeb’s camp now offering strategy advice to us… Last time I checked, they’ve spent millions against every candidate not named Cruz in this race.”

 

[Aaron Strife]

GOP Rep. Scott Rigell retiring, potential pickup for the Democrats. After redistricting it went 51-49 for Romney - if Trump or Cruz or someone similarly unelectable were the nominee it would almost certainly flip if Democrats got a good recruit here. Sabato moved it to Tossup, Rothenberg to Lean R and Cook to Likely R so it's hard to say how this will shake out.

If this seat, Randy Forbes' old seat (the biggest victim of the redraw and now safely Dem) and Barbara Comstock's seat (R+2 and Dems got a good challenger here) all flip Democrats would actually have a 6-5 edge in the Virginia delegation, a huge improvement over their current 3-8 (pathetic in an Obama state, yay gerrymandering)

Sabato now has 15 GOP-held seats as tossups - and 5 more as Lean D or better. Compared to Democrats who only have 4 tossups and 1 seat (FL-2) as Safe R. With a Trump nomination, many of these would fall, and Democrats would probably start racking up wins in the Lean R/Likely R columns too. I think with Trump at the top, control of the House could very well be a tossup.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Jeb's camp and Rubio's camp like each other so much:

It'd be pretty hilarious if the inevitable split in the Republican party happens not because of the ideological pressures (social conservatives vs. libertarian types) but because this races ends up making so many of the party's leading members despise each other on a really personal level. It's happening.

 

[Subtle]

why don't candidates announce their running mates before the primary to increase their appeal?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Fiorina stated she was a poll Truther when told that almost all Americans support universal background checks.

I wonder if her being a poll Truther is why she's still running.

 

[Poodlestrike]

why don't candidates announce their running mates before the primary to increase their appeal?

Because a lot of times those running mates end up being primary opponents. Be a little bit awkward, no?

 

[User 463088]

why don't candidates announce their running mates before the primary to increase their appeal?

It means you would have to limit your choices. A Veep should balance you against the opposition in some way. For example, if Rubio would get the nomination, the Dem nominee would want someone of color and someone younger. A lot of the most qualified candidates are often part of the primary race. You'd be limiting yourself from selecting them.

Obama and Kerry both picked someone who was running in the primary that cycle.