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[ivysaur12]

GOP Rep. Scott Rigell retiring, potential pickup for the Democrats. After redistricting it went 51-49 for Romney - if Trump or Cruz or someone similarly unelectable were the nominee it would almost certainly flip if Democrats got a good recruit here. Sabato moved it to Tossup, Rothenberg to Lean R and Cook to Likely R so it's hard to say how this will shake out.

If this seat, Randy Forbes' old seat (the biggest victim of the redraw and now safely Dem) and Barbara Comstock's seat (R+2 and Dems got a good challenger here) all flip Democrats would actually have a 6-5 edge in the Virginia delegation, a huge improvement over their current 3-8 (pathetic in an Obama state, yay gerrymandering)

Sabato now has 15 GOP-held seats as tossups - and 5 more as Lean D or better. Compared to Democrats who only have 4 tossups and 1 seat (FL-2) as Safe R. With a Trump nomination, many of these would fall, and Democrats would probably start racking up wins in the Lean R/Likely R columns too. I think with Trump at the top, control of the House could very well be a tossup.

#IWantToBelieve

 

[Aaron Strife]

#IWantToBelieve

Sorry, I always do this.

But seriously. Donald Trump.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Sorry, I always do this.

But seriously. Donald Trump.

#IBelieve

 

[Aaron Strife]

#IBelieve

I hope when Democrats take the majority they use the last two weeks of Obama's presidency to let him pass something nice.

Like that lame duck session in 2010 but better. Immigration reform, gun control, ENDA and a minimum wage hike. Maybe a VRA expansion. #first100hours

 

[Daniel B·]

TBH diet is a huge factor but much harder to change given how much we still don't know about the GI tract/metabolic differences between individuals. Still, cancer is a problem mostly because we live longer than we "evolved" to live so now we have to deal with the shortcomings of the body. There are some really promising immunotherapies that may allow good personalized medicine. NIH could always use money.

If you switched GMO corn subsidies, to fresh fruit and vegetables, the price of junk food, including HFCS laced soda, would undoubtedly go up, and fresh produce prices would come down, so plenty more Americans would opt for the healthy choices, including what we provide for school lunches. To illustrate the point, my one week's supply (one pack) of organic broccoli, just went up to $3.5, which is huge for me...

 

[Retromelon]

Sanders or trump lol

Spoiler

Jk sanders or rand lol

 

[Subtle]

It means you would have to limit your choices. A Veep should balance you against the opposition in some way. For example, if Rubio would get the nomination, the Dem nominee would want someone of color and someone younger. A lot of the most qualified candidates are often part of the primary race. You'd be limiting yourself from selecting them.

Obama and Kerry both picked someone who was running in the primary that cycle.

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks!

Also there's always one question that Republicans ask that stumps me. "If you increase taxes, what's going to stop companies from leaving the United States?"

I thought about it, and a reasonable solution is hard to come by. Maybe by fining companies even larger fees for leaving the country, or taxing former American companies higher than American companies. But that just seems to go against free trade. Can anyone help on this one?

EDIT: I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women?

 

[User 463088]

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks!

Also there's always one question that Republicans ask that stumps me. "If you increase taxes, what's going to stop companies from leaving the United States?"

I thought about it, and a reasonable solution is hard to come by. Maybe by fining companies even larger fees for leaving the country, or taxing former American companies higher than American companies. But that just seems to go against free trade. Can anyone help on this one?

Tax policy ain't my thang, but, ya, part of it is punishing companies who ship jobs overseas. You create tax incentives for those that keep jobs in the country. Some jobs, though, are just gone and they're not coming back. So, it's important to focus on the jobs of tomorrow, preferably things that cannot be outsourced.

 

[Subtle]

Tax policy ain't my thang, but, ya, part of it is punishing companies who ship jobs overseas. You create tax incentives for those that keep jobs in the country. Some jobs, though, are just gone and they're not coming back. So, it's important to focus on the jobs of tomorrow, preferably things that cannot be outsourced.

Thanks! This is a really fascinating subject for me. Tax incentives seem alright. I wasn't aware that punishing companies for outsourcing was a legitimate thing. But it seems like both of these together would alleviate the problem. As well as focusing an innovating and creating new jobs and industries.

 

[ivysaur12]

I hope when Democrats take the majority they use the last two weeks of Obama's presidency to let him pass something nice.

Like that lame duck session in 2010 but better. Immigration reform, gun control, ENDA and a minimum wage hike. Maybe a VRA expansion. #first100hours

I feel like ENDA would be the first thing to pass a Democratic house. It could get 60 votes, even with only 52-53 Democratic senators.

 

[User 463088]

Thanks! This is a really fascinating subject for me. Tax incentives seem alright. I wasn't aware that punishing companies for outsourcing was a legitimate thing. But it seems like both of these together would alleviate the problem. As well as focusing an innovating and creating new jobs and industries.

Well, punishing in the sense that you increase taxes on importing what they made over seas. Obviously, you probably can't tax them enough to compensate for $1.50 an hour labor in China, but you can at least make it less attractive to them.

 

[Jack Remington]

Fuck that, I've got money on Trump. But if I sold all my Trump shares and bought into Jeb! then I could make a killing...

NO! What are you people doing to me? Jeb! doesn't stand a chance!

You don't have to hold shares to the end. Playing swings can be very effective. It's even more effective with low priced candidates. A guy made over a grand buying 1c Kasich shares and selling them at 4c after the last New Hampshire poll.

Rand Paul is trading at 5c right now for some absurd reason. To me that's a minor annoyance, as I'm maxed out on his No shares, but if you had been holding a bunch of Paul Yes at 1c? New gaming PC AND a big comfy couch.

I wouldn't bet on Bush though. Dude is already at 10c or so, and I doubt he rises much past that. Plus you'll get wiped out when the next poll shows him in single digits.

 

[ugaboga232]

If you switched GMO corn subsidies, to fresh fruit and vegetables, the price of junk food, including HFCS laced soda, would undoubtedly go up, and fresh produce prices would come down, so plenty more Americans would opt for the healthy choices, including what we provide for school lunches. To illustrate the point, my one week's supply (one pack) of organic broccoli, just went up to $3.5, which is huge for me...

Yea agri-subsidies is out of my area of expertise but i agree with you that a lot of the externalities are born out in healthcare. Plus corn syrup doesn't even taste good

 

[NeoXChaos]

I feel like ENDA would be the first thing to pass a Democratic house. It could get 60 votes, even with only 52-53 Democratic senators.

Redistricting in all 50 states should be the first thing to pass followed by all mail in/internet voting. Then early day voting in all 50 states increase to 6 weeks.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Companies leaving the US because of higher taxes always seemed like the macro version of "If my candidate doesn't win I'm moving to Canada!"

And yeah ENDA seems like the lowest hanging fruit. Would be a nice way to solidify Obama's gay rights record.

 

[User 463088]

Yea agri-subsidies is out of my area of expertise but i agree with you that a lot of the externalities are born out in healthcare. Plus corn syrup doesn't even taste good

Before I stopped all sugary drinks, I went to drinks made only with 100% real sugar. Last night, I had a Dr. Pepper because that's all they had. Holy hell, shit tasted nasty. Weirdly sweet and not at all natural tasting. Sorry, off topic.

 

[ivysaur12]

Redistricting in all 50 states should be the first thing to pass.

That's a lot harder because of the constitution gives that power to the states legislatures. The states themselves can set up independent redistricting, but I don't think there's a lot on the federal level you could actually do.

Basically, you'd have to get a lot of states with ballot measures to pass redistricting laws similar to Arizona and California.

 

[ugaboga232]

Before I stopped all sugary drinks, I went to drinks made only with 100% real sugar. Last night, I had a Dr. Pepper because that's all they had. Holy hell, shit tasted nasty. Weirdly sweet and not at all natural tasting. Sorry, off topic.

My brother gets only the made in mexico drinks because they still use cane sugar and boy are they much tastier.

 

[Basileus777]

Redistricting in all 50 states should be the first thing to pass followed by all mail in/internet voting. Then early day voting in all 50 states increase to 6 weeks.

Does the federal government even have this authority?

 

[NeoXChaos]

That's a lot harder because of the constitution gives that power to the states legislatures. The states themselves can set up independent redistricting, but I don't think there's a lot on the federal level you could actually do.

Basically, you'd have to get a lot of states with ballot measures to pass redistricting laws similar to Arizona and California.

take it away from the states then.

EDIT: Oh wait that requires an amendment. haha it'll never pass. Nvm

 

[User 463088]

My brother gets only the made in mexico drinks because they still use cane sugar and boy are they much tastier.

Pepsi sells regular, Cherry and Cherry vanilla in real sugar varieties in almost all stores. Dr. Pepper does a real sugar one as well. You can also get real sugar Mountain Dew, and one that's called Dewshine that's delicious with vodka.

 

[Basileus777]

take it away from the states then.

That requires a constitutional amendment or a really favorable supreme court.

 

[ivysaur12]

take it away from the states then.

So you want to the first thing the new president is try to pass a constitutional amendment?

Also, I realize there was actually a purpose for this, but this is still my favorite gerrymander of all time:

 

[NeoXChaos]

Well if the Supreme Court is the only option then someone needs to go for it. Should have been done decades ago for state and federal elections.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm not sure why one would conflate the problems with US agricultural subsidies with anti-GMO nonsense. It would still be nutritionally useless starch if it was organically grown out of your own personal human fertilizer.

 

[Subtle]

I'm going to repost this one because I'm really curious.

I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women? I know gerrymandering is a big deal, but can it really be so bad that the Republican majority would hold despite major Democratic turnout in the election?

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm going to repost this one because I'm really curious.

I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women? I know gerrymandering is a big deal, but can it really be so bad that the Republican majority would hold despite major Democratic turnout in the election?

The Democratic turn out would need to dwarf Obama's and even then not every Dem elected will line up behind Bernie.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I'm going to repost this one because I'm really curious.

I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women? I know gerrymandering is a big deal, but can it really be so bad that the Republican majority would hold despite major Democratic turnout in the election?

Gerrymandering is a huge factor. Analysts have said Democrats would need to win the generic vote (combined totals of all House races) by anywhere from 7-13 points to have a chance which would require a major wave.

In 2012 Democrats won the generic vote by about a point and didn't even come close. Even giving every Democrat in the country five extra points would have put them five seats away. And as B-Dubs mentioned many of the newly elected reps would likely come from Republican-leaning districts where stuff like single payer would be a tough sell.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I'm going to repost this one because I'm really curious.

I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women? I know gerrymandering is a big deal, but can it really be so bad that the Republican majority would hold despite major Democratic turnout in the election?

According to people smarter than me, the Democrat's would need to win the House vote by seven points to win the House.

 

[Subtle]

Gerrymandering is a huge factor. Analysts have said Democrats would need to win the generic vote (combined totals of all House races) by anywhere from 7-13 points to have a chance which would require a major wave.

In 2012 Democrars won the generic vote by about a point and didn't even come close.

Well, fuck. That's a sad reality.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm going to repost this one because I'm really curious.

I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women? I know gerrymandering is a big deal, but can it really be so bad that the Republican majority would hold despite major Democratic turnout in the election?

Very tough. Requires a Tsunami greater than Obama. If he ran on the 2000 maps that were in place for 2004 and 2008? he definitely would bring in a D House provided he won by 08 Obama margins. They could win every toss up here and still be short 11 seats. Its that bad.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hell I bet Democrats would have won a majority in the 2012 election if the election was held under the old lines. Losing so many governor's races and state legislatures right before a census really hosed us.

 

[User 463088]

I'm going to repost this one because I'm really curious.

I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women? I know gerrymandering is a big deal, but can it really be so bad that the Republican majority would hold despite major Democratic turnout in the election?

Not always. There are those who vote different at the state level than at the Presidential level. Take 2012 in Mass. Obama won with 60% of the vote to Romney's 37%. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) won with only 53% of the vote to Brown's 46%. There were cross over voters who voted Obama and then Brown. A Trump landslide loss is not necesarily a repudiation of the GOP and an embrace of liberalism. It's, more likely, a vote to make sure the batshit insane man doesn't get the nuke codes. In fact, I'd argue people would be more likely to split the ticket in that situation to keep a President Hillary/Bernie in check.

Also, Bernie is to the far left of what we would call the Democratic party. He has no support from his colleagues in the Senate. Even when President Obama held a filibuster proof majority (which was only a short period of time) he couldn't get everything he wanted through. Things like universal healthcare are simply not going to go anywhere right now. Period. So,a lot of the things that Bernie is promising are things that he's just not going to be able to get done. If you go in with that expectation, then you won't be disappointed. That's why a lot of Hillary's plans seem more incremental, because she has a plan in place that isn't "Revolution" to get them done. A lot can be done through executive order or with a small number of reasonable Republicans.

Gerrymandering is that bad in some areas, to be honest.

 

[Daniel B·]

EDIT: I have another question: Why do people always say that a Democratic president like Bernie wouldn't pass anything with a Republican majority in Congress? This election is riling both sides up, and if a Democratic president won, wouldn't that mean that voters would also vote for blue congressmen and women?

l'll take that one, Adam (EDIT: my PS3 typing is too slow) .

That's the hope, that Bernie wins with such a "yuge" landslide, that he gets usable majorities, in both the houses of Congress. Given Bernie's unprecedented level of grassroots support, and in light of recent favorable events, it is quite possibly, not beyond the bounds of reason.

But, as my post eluded to earlier, let's say the American people, as a whole, need a little more convincing, and he becomes President, but with only The Senate; assuming he does a great job, which we know he will, he will hopefully then have given the American people that extra level of confidence, and they will then give him The House, in the Mid-Terms.

I'm so not an expert on American politics, but I hope what I've stated is essentially plausible (if it isn't, don't worry, it will be torn, limb from limb).

 

[ugaboga232]

I'm not sure why one would conflate the problems with US agricultural subsidies with anti-GMO nonsense. It would still be nutritionally useless starch if it was organically grown out of your own personal human fertilizer.

Yea GMO is fine (good really) just happens monsanto is in good company with other companies like Nestle in terms of being an ass.

 

[ivysaur12]

If it's Trump or Cruz, though, a lot of these safe Senate seats suddenly become a lot more tenuous. It's when you start looking at Ann Kirkpatrick, Deborah Ross, and even fucking Baron Hill as potential contenders.

 

[User 463088]

l'll take that one, Adam .

That's the hope, that Bernie wins with such a "yuge" landslide, that he gets usable majorities, in both the houses of Congress. Given Bernie's unprecedented level of grassroots support, and in light of recent favorable events, it is quite possibly, not beyond the bounds of reason.

But, as my post eluded to earlier, let's say the American people, as a whole, need a little more convincing, and he becomes President, but with only The Senate; assuming he does a great job, which we know he will, he will hopefully then have given the American people that extra level of confidence, and they will then give him The House, in the Mid-Terms.

I'm so not an expert on American politics, but I hope what I've stated is essentially plausible (if it isn't, don't worry, it will be torn, limb from limb).

It's not, but don't ever change mate.

 

[B-Dubs]

If it's Trump or Cruz, though, a lot of these safe Senate seats suddenly become a lot more tenuous. It's when you start looking at Ann Kirkpatrick, Deborah Ross, and even fucking Baron Hill as potential contenders.

Especially if the Dems can link them to Trump, if they run the other way it'll be a lot harder.

 

[Basileus777]

Especially if the Dems can link them to Trump, if they run the other way it'll be a lot harder.

It'd probably be easier to link them to Cruz, a sitting Senator. Trump's craziness can more easily be distanced form.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I'm calling a Trump loss in Iowa, barring Cruz flat-out being ruled ineligible in the next few weeks. There are just too many stories that his ground operation is clown shoes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/u...-ground-game-seems-to-be-missing-a-coach.html

DES MOINES — One volunteer leader enlisted by Donald J. Trump to turn out Iowa voters has yet to knock on a single door or to make a phone call. Another is a “9/11 truther” with a website claiming that the Sept. 11 attacks were a government conspiracy. A third caucus precinct captain, who like the others attended a training session in West Des Moines last month, said the campaign’s goal of having them each enlist 25 supporters was unrealistic.

“There’s probably not even 25 registered voters in a precinct,” said the captain, Kathy Hawk, a retired trauma therapist in Ottumwa, who began making calls only on Monday.

Seven volunteers worked the phones at the Iowa headquarters of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in a Des Moines suburb one night last week. At the state headquarters of Mr. Cruz, there were 24 volunteers in a room beneath a sign proclaiming a daily goal of making 6,000 calls. The Trump state headquarters in West Des Moines were largely deserted.

Asked for comment about Mr. Trump’s Iowa organizing, a spokeswoman for the candidate, Hope Hicks, wrote in an email, “There is no one available to speak with you."

Also, lol:

Although he was not at the Ottumwa rally, Mr. Shaddock said he would have stood up to object when Mr. Trump referred to Muslims flying planes into the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001.

“That hasn’t been proven,” he said. “I would have stood up and said, ‘Listen, it was remote-controlled takeover of the autoland’ ” technology.

 

[Daniel B·]

It's not, but don't ever change mate.

Subtle, just in case you are very new to PoliGAF, Adam would let Hillary run over him in the Presidential limo, to demonstrate his undying support, so you might want to wait for an impartial opinion .

 

[Aaron Strife]

Especially if the Dems can link them to Trump, if they run the other way it'll be a lot harder.

It'd be hard for Republicans to distance themselves in the first place to be honest. And if they do I don't expect Trump to be very forgiving about it, no George Bush campaigning for Lincoln Chafee kind of stuff.

They run a risk of alienating everybody.

Senate candidates have even been ruined by Senate candidates from other states. Todd Akin's gaffe didn't just take him down, it also took down Richard Mourdock because someone asked him about it.

 

[Teggy]

So do 9/11/San Bernardino truthers think it's fine for Muslims to come into the country because all these things are actually false flag operations?

 

[rjinaz]

So do 9/11/San Bernardino truthers think it's fine for Muslims to come into the country because all these things are actually false flag operations?

Nah, they're just bringing in more actors for the government to use.

 

[User 463088]

Subtle, just in case you are very new to PoliGAF, Adam would let Hillary run over him in the Presidential limo, to demonstrate his undying support, so you might want to wait for an impartial opinion .

Did she say she wanted me to do this? Where? What time? I can be there. I just have to move some stuff.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

If it's Trump or Cruz, though, a lot of these safe Senate seats suddenly become a lot more tenuous. It's when you start looking at Ann Kirkpatrick, Deborah Ross, and even fucking Baron Hill as potential contenders.

I hope whoever is the presumptive nominee, Trump or Cruz, actively campaigns for the loons in the Republican Senate primary like Kelli Ward or Sharron Angle.

 

[rjinaz]

Did she say she wanted me to do this? Where? What time? I can be there. I just have to move some stuff.

Can you make sure you're wearing an I love Bernie shirt? It would do wonders in the press.

 

[ivysaur12]

Especially if the Dems can link them to Trump, if they run the other way it'll be a lot harder.

I think I posted this earlier, but (in order of likelihood):

No Matter Who Is The Nominee, These Will Probably Win:

(Maryland Winner)
(Harris)
Feingold
Duckworth

------

Even If Rubio Is The Nominee, These Will Be Nail Biters, But Also Blow Outs If Trump/Cruz Is The Nominee:

(Cortez-Masto)
Bennet
Hassan
Murphy
Strickland
McGinty

-----

A Real Shot At Going Blue If Trump/Cruz Is The Nominee:

Ross
Kirkpatrick
Hill
Kander

-----

Trump Calls Hillary A Cunt In A Debate And All Bets Are Off:

Landrieu
Eldridge
Whoever Runs Against Isakson
Whoever Runs Against Rand

I hope whoever is the presumptive nominee, Trump or Cruz, actively campaigns for the loons in the Republican Senate primary like Kelli Ward or Sharron Angle.

MY PENIS CANNOT HANDLE THIS RN

 

[User 463088]

Can you make sure you're wearing an I love Bernie shirt? It would do wonders in the press.

I would....but I think it would catch on fire if it touched my skin.

 

[ivysaur12]

I really think Trump could suffer in caucus states, but has a chance of doing well in Nevada since that's his just natural base.