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[pigeon]

Don't you want to start with UHC from a negotiating perspective? Heck, Obama never even pushed super-hard for the public option.

I mean, yes he did? He didn't spend too much time talking about it because he wanted it to actually pass, and he observed (correctly) that if the GOP refused to join it it would become an ongoing cultural conflict. He pushed the Democrats pretty hard on it -- multiple Senators gave their political lives for the ACA as it is. I think it's pretty well-established that Lieberman, who nobody had any leverage over, killed the public option pretty much by himself.

Healthcare seems like more of a policy thing at this point than a politics thing. Hoping for better economic outcomes seems important to me, but politically it's not clear people that benefit from healthcare legislation via coverage (and not via cost) a) appreciate healthcare coverage b) see healthcare cost control explicitly and c) vote.

Hillary gets that I think.

My observation of people who don't like the ACA suggests that the vast majority of them, on both left and right, just don't understand what the ACA does. So I definitely think that politically it's not worth engaging in right now. Give it a few more years, let Medicaid expansion spread to a few more states, let's talk about it in 2020.

 

[Teggy]

That would indeed make a winning ad for Bernie in the general.

"I'm Bernie Sanders. I am a Democratic Socialist, but I'm not working for the dictatorship of the proletariat so much as I'm looking for relief and increased income for the consumer base so that Capitalism doesn't devour itself. My policies won't lead to the hellscape of post-Stalin Soviet Russia."

And I'm not a witch.

 

[NeoXChaos]

 

[User 406]

On the right side, too decrepit to get to the polls.

On the left side, can't buy alcohol without help.

 

[disastermouse]

That sure sounds like "I don't actually have any examples" to me.

(But please, do tell me that the GOP is going to successfully make a '90s attack stick to her when they can't even do it to Trump. Dude has literally flipped on everything from health care to taxes and their response has been a wet fart.)

Trump is immune to flip-flop criticism. They are vastly different political animals. I haven't seen a candidate as fully coated in Teflon since Reagan! It's truly a wonder to behold. Hillary is not that kind of candidate and she will shrink and stress under the flip-flop accusations.

Where has she flip-flopped? Let's see...TPP. Used to be for it, came out against it when the tide against it turned out to be much greater than anticipated. Gay marriage. Certainly wasn't for it 2008 (and she didn't need to be because even Obama wasn't). Voted for the war in Iraq, has admitted that it was a mistake (that was pre-'08, I admit).

 

[disastermouse]

Good to see that the nearly dead still vote, actually.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Trump is immune to flip-flop criticism. They are vastly different political animals.

Ooooor people generally don't give a shit as long as you're flipping to positions now supported by the "base".

(Aside from that, I don't know: maybe the Democrats in polls who consistently give Clinton higher favorables than Sanders just Haven't Heard about her Constantly Changing Political Positions. Or they just don't care about the TPP, because that's the only position that hasn't had 3 or more presidential terms to change.)

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Nate Silver thinks the GOP donor class is ridiculously stupid for resigning itself to either Trump or Cruz:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

He's coming off as irritated and befuddled.

 

[And_Gignac]

David Brock-GAF wont like this, but it seems the narrative is effectively still on Sanders side.

The Daily 202: Bernie Sanders won the Democratic debate, say pundits and social media

And theres this specially candid headline by the always charming New York Post:

Bernie mopped the floor with Hillary

heh.

I am surprised tbh. I felt Clinton was so much stronger, she even made me feel sympathetic for her cause.

 

[Y2Kev]

My dogs farts have been more potent recently than Silver's punditry!

 

[HylianTom]

Nate Silver thinks the GOP donor class is ridiculously stupid for resigning itself to either Trump or Cruz:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

He's coming off as irritated and befuddled.

Those Trump numbers are amazing.

Usually I say there's an outside chance that his nomination put the House on the table, but I'm thinking on the inside, "I'll believe it when I see it." But those numbers.. damn.

 

[RustyNails]

I mean, yes he did? He didn't spend too much time talking about it because he wanted it to actually pass, and he observed (correctly) that if the GOP refused to join it it would become an ongoing cultural conflict. He pushed the Democrats pretty hard on it -- multiple Senators gave their political lives for the ACA as it is. I think it's pretty well-established that Lieberman, who nobody had any leverage over, killed the public option pretty much by himself.

One thing I dont understand is that ACA in the end passed through budget reconciliation after Olympia Snowe told Obama to pretty much fuck off. I remember Lieberman and Ben Nelson's fuckery. But if in the end they needed only a simple majority, why not tack in the public option?

But yeah lot of red state democrats lost their seats in 2010 after voting for ACA. People easily forget the blood, sweat and tears. Obama pretty much expended his entire political capital in his first year to pass ACA.

 

[Plinko]

Nate Silver thinks the GOP donor class is ridiculously stupid for resigning itself to either Trump or Cruz:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

He's coming off as irritated and befuddled.

Once again, Silver touches on nearly pointless data at this point.

Favorability ratings tend to change when all the other candidates are out. Put Trump against Hillary (another candidate with poor ratings) and then get back to me. I just don't buy his narrative that the right won't vote for this guy.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Once again, Silver touches on nearly pointless data at this point.

Favorability ratings tend to change when all the other candidates are out. Put Trump against Hillary (another candidate with poor ratings) and then get back to me. I just don't buy his narrative that the right won't vote for this guy.

No one expects Republicans to abandon Trump. But if enough conservative independents break away then HRC could get the 8 - 10 point win needed to get the House back. This doesn't have to be another Goldwater election, just a little better than Obama / McCain.

 

[Makai]

No one expects Republicans to abandon Trump. But if enough conservative independents break away then HRC could get the 8 - 10 point win needed to get the House back. This doesn't have to be another Goldwater election, just a little better than Obama / McCain.

Yeah they do. Republicans have talked about running an establishment Republican as a third party.

 

[dabig2]

One thing I dont understand is that ACA in the end passed through budget reconciliation after Olympia Snowe told Obama to pretty much fuck off. I remember Lieberman and Ben Nelson's fuckery. But if in the end they needed only a simple majority, why not tack in the public option?

But yeah lot of red state democrats lost their seats in 2010 after voting for ACA. People easily forget the blood, sweat and tears. Obama pretty much expended his entire political capital in his first year to pass ACA.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/obamasdeal/etc/cron.html

House had the public option in it right up until the end. Unfortunately Scott Brown winning Ted's seat scared a ton of people and Pelosi and co. dropped the issue. But it was still because of human opportunistic shits like Lieberman, Bayh and Nelson in the Senate that the public option had so much bad will and was ultimately murdered in the Senate. Fuck those guys, especially Lieberman.

 

[Iolo]

Yeah they do. Republicans have talked about running an establishment Republican as a third party.

No matter how much noise certain Republicans like Stuart Stevens may make, they will not do this in the end. It is an empty threat.

 

[Y2Kev]

Lol melkr posting New York post articles. Trollfu weak

 

[Makai]

There was a Donald Trump poster on the subway Little kids knew who he was and said he looked angry. I was surprised.

 

[sangreal]

One thing I dont understand is that ACA in the end passed through budget reconciliation after Olympia Snowe told Obama to pretty much fuck off. I remember Lieberman and Ben Nelson's fuckery. But if in the end they needed only a simple majority, why not tack in the public option?

But yeah lot of red state democrats lost their seats in 2010 after voting for ACA. People easily forget the blood, sweat and tears. Obama pretty much expended his entire political capital in his first year to pass ACA.

The ACA did not pass through budget reconciliation

The ACA passed w/ a super majority in the Senate before Scott Brown was elected. After the Democrats lost that election, the house passed the Senate bill. Budget Reconciliation was then used to 'fix' some parts of the Senate bill that the House didn't care for -- but those items were limited in scope by the byrd rule

 

[disastermouse]

Ooooor people generally don't give a shit as long as you're flipping to positions now supported by the "base".

(Aside from that, I don't know: maybe the Democrats in polls who consistently give Clinton higher favorables than Sanders just Haven't Heard about her Constantly Changing Political Positions. Or they just don't care about the TPP, because that's the only position that hasn't had 3 or more presidential terms to change.)

The Democratic primary hasn't been very negative. In the general, everyone will be reminded why Hillary hasn't already been president.

She's not a Kerry-sized mistake, but she's going to get killed in the general.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Christie, describing opposition to legalizing marijuana, says Obama isn't enforcing fed law in states "since he got high when he was a kid."

States Rights, you racist fuckface.

 

[ivysaur12]

The Democratic primary hasn't been very negative. In the general, everyone will be reminded why Hillary hasn't already been president.

She's not a Kerry-sized mistake, but she's going to get killed in the general.

FYI, I'm saving all of these for November.

 

[pigeon]

The Democratic primary hasn't been very negative. In the general, everyone will be reminded why Hillary hasn't already been president.

This is true, but it's kind of a roundabout way to say Obama will finally be able to get off the bench and stump for her.

 

[ivysaur12]

Also, it's more than a little disingenuous to say that Hillary hasn't been attacked this primary season as, until two weeks ago, she was the punching bag for the entire Republican primary!

 

[B-Dubs]

Also, it's more than a little disingenuous to say that Hillary hasn't been attacked this primary season as, until two weeks ago, she was the punching bag for the entire Republican primary!

Carly's entire campaign is based around attacking her ffs.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Also, it's more than a little disingenuous to say that Hillary hasn't been attacked this primary season as, until two weeks ago, she was the punching bag for the entire Republican primary!

She was still attacked more than even Ted Cruz in the last debate:

Fiorina's opening statement was a ridiculous attack on Clinton's marriage also.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't want a hugbox but I really wish hillarystans would be secure enough in their like of hillary to stop engaging the same posters in this thread and in the various OT threads on the same five arguments over and over. You can't win and you become really annoying.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The Democratic primary hasn't been very negative. In the general, everyone will be reminded why Hillary hasn't already been president.

She's not a Kerry-sized mistake, but she's going to get killed in the general.

Kerry lost by 3% of the popular vote and one state electorally. If you're a smaller "mistake" than Kerry, you win.

 

[A Human Becoming]

The most pro-Sanders website too smh. Mess.

No, that's HuffPo. Don't be lying yo.

 

[eBay Huckster]

No, that's HuffPo. Don't be lying yo.

oh sweet jesus don't even remind me about that site

Kerry lost by 3% of the popular vote and one state electorally. If you're a smaller "mistake" than Kerry, you win.

specifically, Kerry lost by 3% of the popular vote and would have won the election with 120,000 more votes in that one state - or roughly the amount by which turnout increased in 2008

 

[Dominican Power]

Marco Rubio always attacks Hillary.

 

[Iolo]

Primary attacks also include the 11 hour Benghazi hearing.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Hillary won

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...-debate-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-217935

Bernie Sanders is riding a wave of momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, but his performance in Sunday night’s debate failed to dislodge Hillary Clinton from her perch as national front-runner for the Democratic nomination.
That’s according to Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of leading strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire and the two states that will follow with nominating contests next month: Nevada and South Carolina, where Sunday’s debate was held.

 

[disastermouse]

Also, it's more than a little disingenuous to say that Hillary hasn't been attacked this primary season as, until two weeks ago, she was the punching bag for the entire Republican primary!

I'd say the Republican Party itself has been its own punching bag again this cycle. Hillary is a known and hated quantity on the Republican side. Trump will land some truly devastating blows on her and it's because she's open to it.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'd say the Republican Party itself has been its own punching bag again this cycle. Hillary is a known and hated quantity on the Republican side. Trump will land some truly devastating blows on her and it's because she's open to it.

Because everyone will just ignore all of Trump's blatant racism, yup that's going to happen.

 

[disastermouse]

Kerry lost by 3% of the popular vote and one state electorally. If you're a smaller "mistake" than Kerry, you win.

Against Bush. That election should have been unlosable for the Democrats.

 

[disastermouse]

Because everyone will just ignore all of Trump's blatant racism, yup that's going to happen.

Enough will, yeah. And Hillary being the candidate will keep enthusiasm low. It'll be 'Hillary's good enough, I guess.' Just like Kerry.

Enough people either don't care about or essentially agree with Trump on those points. Youth turnout will be low, minority turnout will be low, angry white voter turnout will be high - and Trump will win those votes.

 

[Iolo]

Hillary won

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...-debate-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-217935

OK, but the Republican insiders in the Politico caucus has been claiming Trump lost for months. It's more what they want to happen than necessarily what happened.

 

[Makai]

I don't want a hugbox but I really wish hillarystans would be secure enough in their like of hillary to stop engaging the same posters in this thread and in the various OT threads on the same five arguments over and over. You can't win and you become really annoying.

I've noticed a huge uptick in the last week. It almost comes off as HillaryGAF Diablosing (which I know is not the case).

 

[Teggy]

I don't know how I'm going to make it through this election season. I can't deal with watching Trump. This morning he was bragging that he set a record crowd for the Liberty University convocation, an event that all students are expected to attend based on the student handbook. And he dedicated his record crowd to MLK.

And if it's Cruz? Oh boy.

This might be the first election I volunteer to help the Democratic Party. And since I live in MA it will have to be some sort of out of state thing.

And my biggest fear of all? That my Republican parents are going to say they are willing to vote for Trump or Cruz. These are people that voted for Clinton but now watch too much Fox News.

 

[Manmademan]

My dogs farts have been more potent recently than Silver's punditry!

as a pundit, he's absolutely abysmal.

I mean...

But that Cruz might be a bad nominee doesn’t make Trump a good one. It’s a perplexing that Republican elites have resigned to nominating either Trump or Cruz when nine other candidates are running and no one has voted yet.

"Republican Elites" have been trying to dislodge trump for months. Literally everything that can be tried, has been tried. Nothing works. They have no leverage, and the "nine other candidates" lack the infrastructure and funding to compete with either. Yes, this includes Rubio.

Nate fails to realize that the primary is not some kind of roulette wheel where on any given spin it "could" land on Carly Fiorina and she could take the nomination. other factors are in play here, and the vast majority of those running simply aren't viable.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Against Bush. That election should have been unlosable for the Democrats.

A seated President always starts of with an advantage and Bush benefited from a still popular war in Iraq and unemployment figures turning around a few months before the election. Kerry had to deal with a Democratic party that was far more divided than today. Getting the result to be that close was a major achievement that Kerry and his campaign should be lauded for.

 

[B-Dubs]

Enough will, yeah. And Hillary being the candidate will keep enthusiasm low. It'll be 'Hillary's good enough, I guess.' Just like Kerry.

Enough people either don't care about or essentially agree with Trump on those points. Youth turnout will be low, minority turnout will be low, angry white voter turnout will be high - and Trump will win those votes.

None of that makes any sense given the numbers we have right now. Angry white people aren't enough to win an election any more, and besides that the polling we have shows that Hillary's supporters are plenty enthusiastic. You just don't see it as much here due to how GAF leans in terms of demographics.

Minority voters will turn out just to stop Trump if it comes to that, you really think they'll all just sit home as the most racist candidate in recent memory waltzes into the White House? That makes no sense.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Against Bush. That election should have been unlosable for the Democrats.

An election featuring an incumbent with positive approval ratings, an economy that hadn't started to slow down yet, and a war that didn't seem to be the unwinnable quagmire it was just two years later should've been unlosable... for the Republicans.

And it was.

There's been some really weird revisionist history going on where in 2004, Bush was somehow already popularly seen as the failure everyone thought he was at the end of his second term, and it's nowhere close to having been the case. It's a credit to Kerry, if anything, that that election was even close.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

This might be the first election I volunteer to help the Democratic Party. And since I live in MA it will have to be some sort of out of state thing.

New Hampshire is right next door! There will be a very close Senate race there in addition to the Presidency.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Against Bush. That election should have been unlosable for the Democrats.

George Bush's approval rating was 53% right after the election.

He wasn't gonna lose shit.

 

[Manmademan]

None of that makes any sense given the numbers we have right now. Angry white people aren't enough to win an election any more, and besides that the polling we have shows that Hillary's supporters are plenty enthusiastic. You just don't see it as much here due to how GAF leans in terms of demographics.

Agreed. There's plenty of enthusiasm for clinton. Voters and the general public like her just fine. I'm a supporter but really...there's nothing to talk about here. She's obliterating her only viable opponent (sorry, o'malley) 60-30 nationally and there is no realistic chance she doesn't take the nomination in a walk. On top of that she's intentionally hedging her rhetoric so that nothing comes back to bite her ass in the general. Solid strategy, but there's no red meat for the media. Sanders doesn't have to worry about this, so makes more headlines with nonsense.

Minority voters will turn out just to stop Trump if it comes to that, you really think they'll all just sit home as the most racist candidate in recent memory waltzes into the White House? That makes no sense.

agreed.

 

[Black Republican]

are we gonna go back to doing separate caucus/primary threads or keep it all here?

cant believe its only 2 weeks til the first votes

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Man, I'm worried about Trump in the general, he's going to do so well with the majority of voters (women):

One of Hillary's foreign policy assistants as SoS is giving the commencement for my graduation class, blerg.