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[A Human Becoming]

Nate Silver thinks the GOP donor class is ridiculously stupid for resigning itself to either Trump or Cruz:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

He's coming off as irritated and befuddled.

Once again, Silver touches on nearly pointless data at this point.

Favorability ratings tend to change when all the other candidates are out. Put Trump against Hillary (another candidate with poor ratings) and then get back to me. I just don't buy his narrative that the right won't vote for this guy.

I think you two are way off base here if you really think Trump has a chance in the general. I don't care how divided the country is, the electorate is rational enough not to vote for someone who spews hatred and is vastyly inexperienced. And Plinko, do you realize 6% of Republicans and 17% of Conservatives in 2012 voted for Obama? Those numbers increasing with Trump running doesn't sound far fetched at all.

as a pundit, he's absolutely abysmal.

I mean...



"Republican Elites" have been trying to dislodge trump for months. Literally everything that can be tried, has been tried. Nothing works. They have no leverage, and the "nine other candidates" lack the infrastructure and funding to compete with either. Yes, this includes Rubio.
Nate fails to realize that the primary is not some kind of roulette wheel where on any given spin it "could" land on Carly Fiorina and she could take the nomination. other factors are in play here, and the vast majority of those running simply aren't viable.

That's not at all true if you actually read what he's been saying. Now he does say there's some fluidity to the race, but it's not random. Could Nate be clinging too much to historical precedent? Possibly, but as someone whose main focus is statistics it's understandable.

I don't want a hugbox but I really wish hillarystans would be secure enough in their like of hillary to stop engaging the same posters in this thread and in the various OT threads on the same five arguments over and over. You can't win and you become really annoying.

Primaries get really nasty and people on both sides here are guilty of it. I've tried not to be, but it grates me, especially since Hillary has such a huge advantage of winning the nomination. I wish as a whole we could be more respectful.

 

[B-Dubs]

are we gonna go back to doing separate caucus/primary threads or keep it all here?

cant believe its only 2 weeks til the first votes

I'm making a thread for Iowa and Super Tuesday, I think someone's got a NH thread but outside of that I'm not sure there's much of a point.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Agreed. There's plenty of enthusiasm for clinton. Voters and the general public like her just fine. I'm a supporter but really...there's nothing to talk about here. She's obliterating her only viable opponent (sorry, o'malley) 60-30 nationally and there is no realistic chance she doesn't take the nomination in a walk. On top of that she's intentionally hedging her rhetoric so that nothing comes back to bite her ass in the general. Solid strategy, but there's no red meat for the media. Sanders doesn't have to worry about this, so makes more headlines with nonsense.



agreed.

the media does not report on it though. Its all about sanders and the huge crows hes drawing. The media reports that clinton has an enthusiasm gap. Clinton supporters tend to be the ones who are not on the internet on sites like Reddit, GAF etc so maybe thats a skewed perspective on the ground in IA and NH. Clinton's people will show up. Bernie is counting on those that don't so there is that.

 

[Manmademan]

I think you two are way off base here if you really think Trump has a chance in the general. I don't care how divided the country is, the electorate is rational enough not to vote for someone who spews hatred and is vastyly inexperienced. And Plinko, do you realize 6% of Republicans and 17% of Conservatives in 2012 voted for Obama? Those numbers increasing with Trump running doesn't sound far fetched at all..

no one here thinks Trump has a shot at the general. The GOP wouldn't be panicking if that wasn't the case.

The point that those two were making is that the article is worthless. it doesnt MATTER to the electorate how viable Trump is in the general, because those that are responding to his rhetoric don't value compromise and see it as a weakness. A "compromise candidate" is what they got with Romney and that plan was a failure.

the media does not report on it though. Its all about sanders and the huge crows hes drawing. The media reports that clinton has an enthusiasm gap. Clinton supporters tend to be the ones who are not on the internet on sites like Reddit, GAF etc so maybe thats a skewed perspective on the ground in IA and NH. Clinton's people will show up. Bernie is counting on those that don't so there is that.

the media reports on sensationalism. Hillary isn't giving them any by design, so they chase headlines where they can re: Bernie's crowds, iowa surges, etc etc.

"Hillary still in the lead by the same margins as the last 3 months" doesn't sell papers and doesn't translate into eyeballs on tv.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Against Bush. That election should have been unlosable for the Democrats.

You're saying the 2004 electoral map was more favorable for Democrats than 2016, is that correct?

Bush didn't crater until Katrina in 2005, btw.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Btw Obama's approval rating in Gallup today hit 51%

Moody's election model still has Democrats winning the electoral college 326-212, Democrats still hold the keys (for now). Everything's coming up Milhouse

 

[thefro]

An election featuring an incumbent with positive approval ratings, an economy that hadn't started to slow down yet, and a war that didn't seem to be the unwinnable quagmire it was just two years later should've been unlosable... for the Republicans.

And it was.

There's been some really weird revisionist history going on where in 2004, Bush was somehow already popularly seen as the failure everyone thought he was at the end of his second term, and it's nowhere close to having been the case. It's a credit to Kerry, if anything, that that election was even close.

Howard Dean's the one who really damaged Bush and came up with a lot of the messaging (along with Joe Trippi) that Kerry copied later (less effectively, IMHO). I still think he would have been able to beat Bush in a general election matchup... his campaign had a fantastic strategy for the general. Dean had an excellent moderate record in Vermont (balanced budgets, tax cuts, A-rating from NRA) to run on and wouldn't have been vulnerable to the attacks Kerry got.

 

[HylianTom]

Minority voters will turn out just to stop Trump if it comes to that, you really think they'll all just sit home as the most racist candidate in recent memory waltzes into the White House? That makes no sense.

The moment that Trump accepts the nomination is the moment we can break-out our blue crayons and color-in Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and likely Florida (depending on VP). All tension would go to the fate of Congress.

 

[Manmademan]

Howard Dean's the one who really damaged Bush and came up with a lot of the messaging (along with Joe Trippi) that Kerry copied later (less effectively, IMHO). I still think he would have been able to beat Bush in a general election matchup... his campaign had a fantastic strategy for the general. Dean had an excellent moderate record in Vermont (balanced budgets, tax cuts, A-rating from NRA) to run on and wouldn't have been vulnerable to the attacks Kerry got.

one could say that kerry's failure to respond effectively to being swift boated really did him in. A lot of times the APPEARANCE of weakness is enough to tank a campaign, even if the fundamentals are solid- ask Jeb! about this one.

The moment that Trump accepts the nomination is the moment we can break-out our blue crayons and color-in Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and likely Florida (depending on VP). All tension would go to the fate of Congress.

Florida is already gone. Demographic shifts from puerto ricans flooding the state over the last couple of years are enough to put it out of reach for republicans in the general.

 

[B-Dubs]

The moment that Trump accepts the nomination is the moment we can break-out our blue crayons and color-in Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and likely Florida (depending on VP). All tension would go to the fate of Congress.

I'm looking forward to another one of those napkin maps colored in with a broken blue crayon.

 

[Black Republican]

Btw Obama's approval rating in Gallup today hit 51%

Moody's election model still has Democrats winning the electoral college 326-212, Democrats still hold the keys (for now). Everything's coming up Milhouse

thinking if Hillary can win a close 2008 state obama couldnt win like Missouri? or have they shifted far right now?

unless if Trump wins the GOP nom i dont see historic minority votes as before, but still very high

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm making a thread for Iowa and Super Tuesday, I think someone's got a NH thread but outside of that I'm not sure there's much of a point.

Thread Assignment

Iowa Caucuses- b-dubs
New Hampshire Primary- A Human Becoming
*Nevada Caucuses-
*South Carolina Primary- Wilsongt, NeoXChaos, b-dubs
Super Tuesday-b-dubs

*After Super Tuesday PoliGAF handles the rest of the primaries.

*Veepstakes is going to be in PoliGAF

2016 Republican National Convention-
2016 Democratic National Convention-

1st Presidential Debate-b-dubs
Vice Presidential Debate-Ebay Huckster
2nd Presidential Debate-
3rd Presidential Debate-

Election Day 2016-

Republican Debates

7 January 28, 2016- Makai
8 February 6, 2016 b-dubs
9 February 13, 2016- Makai
10. February 26, 2016- Makai
11. March 2016--Makai
12 Mar. 10, 2016- Makai

Democratic Debates
February 11, 2016-kingkitty
March 9, 2016-kingkitty

 

[Holmes]

No, that's HuffPo. Don't be lying yo.

Only because of H. A. Goodman tbh.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Howard Dean's the one who really damaged Bush and came up with a lot of the messaging (along with Joe Trippi) that Kerry copied later (less effectively, IMHO). I still think he would have been able to beat Bush in a general election matchup... his campaign had a fantastic strategy for the general. Dean had an excellent moderate record in Vermont (balanced budgets, tax cuts, A-rating from NRA) to run on and wouldn't have been vulnerable to the attacks Kerry got.

I honestly imagine an alternate timeline where Paul Wellstone didn't die in a plane crash, won reelection as Senator (tying the Senate) and ran for president and won in 2004. Given his vote against the Iraq War I think he would have been the most credible, yet still electable person to run on that issue and against Bush.

Also, the Bush tax cuts wouldn't have passed or would have been severely compromised. Wellstone's death and the successful swift boating of Sen. Cleland (triple amputee Vietnam vet? More like AL QAEDA SYMPATHIZER) are two of the most heartbreaking things from that specific era of politics as Democrats would have had a majority in the Senate with them.

Of course, given the financial crash in 2007-2008 anyone who would have beaten Bush might have very well been a one-termer. Now there's a fun exercise in alternate political history

2000: Bush (R)
2004: Wellstone (D) defeats Bush and withdraws from the war, but gets hit by the recession, leading to
2008: McCain (R) who is ill-equipped to deal with the failing economy, leading to
2012: Obama (D), who gets to work with a Democratic Congress for much of his presidency after McCain's Republicans suffered heavy losses in the 2010 midterms
2016: Obama is running for reelection

I remember PD predicting at one point that we were in for a series of one-termers, well there you go.

I'm looking forward to another one of those napkin maps colored in with a broken blue crayon.

My 2012 map (100% accurate) was a printed map, my 2014 map (I don't want to talk about it) was a napkin at Perkins. I haven't decided what my 2016 map will be drawn on yet, but rest assured it will be a car.

 

[B-Dubs]

thinking if Hillary can win a close 2008 state obama couldnt win like Missouri? or have they shifted far right now?

unless if Trump wins the GOP nom i dont see historic minority votes as before, but still very high

Might be too early for anything that isn't hopeful guessing on that, we still need to see exactly how hated Trump will be.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Howard Dean's the one who really damaged Bush and came up with a lot of the messaging (along with Joe Trippi) that Kerry copied later (less effectively, IMHO). I still think he would have been able to beat Bush in a general election matchup... his campaign had a fantastic strategy for the general. Dean had an excellent moderate record in Vermont (balanced budgets, tax cuts, A-rating from NRA) to run on and wouldn't have been vulnerable to the attacks Kerry got.

Dean was only able to win his home state in the Democratic primary and got two million few votes than John Edwards. The idea that he would be more popular among general voters than the base is hard for me to accept.

 

[Iolo]

Btw Obama's approval rating in Gallup today hit 51%

Moody's election model still has Democrats winning the electoral college 326-212, Democrats still hold the keys (for now). Everything's coming up Milhouse

that SOTU bounce

 

[Abinash117]

What makes people think that Donald Trump will go to the center and be successful? The only think that he can do is possibly superpacs and the wealthy ( maybe), most of anything else is difficult or impossible. Unless having dissing superpacs and the wealthy somehow makes you more center despite everything else. One drop rule really does seem to be in place in some areas of politics. I guess that is were the DINO, LINO, or RINO business come in.

 

[Y2Kev]

Donald Trump won't go to the center because he's Donald Trump. Has no one followed this guy for the last 15 years? This is someone who gets in public feuds with innocuous public figures like Rosie O'Donald just because. He's not a moderate guy. He won't moderate because he can't. Any moderation he does will be because his views are actually moderate (I believe he's pro-choice and obviously pro-gay marriage, etc.). I'm fine with extreme racism tho if I can get a tax break.

 

[Makai]

I've heard people call Trump homophobic. Is anyone familiar with this? News to me. I bet they're just assuming that because he's a Republican.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I've heard people call Trump homophobic. Is anyone familiar with this? News to me. I bet they're just assuming that because he's a Republican.

"It's like in golf. People are switching over to these long putters, very unattractive."-Paraphrased Trump on gay marriage.

But he's less homophobic than other Republicans.

 

[Makai]

Donald Trump won't go to the center because he's Donald Trump. Has no one followed this guy for the last 15 years? This is someone who gets in public feuds with innocuous public figures like Rosie O'Donald just because. He's not a moderate guy. He won't moderate because he can't. Any moderation he does will be because his views are actually moderate (I believe he's pro-choice and obviously pro-gay marriage, etc.). I'm fine with extreme racism tho if I can get a tax break.

Sure he moderates. It's all a negotiating tactic. Start big and then cut a deal more favorable to you than if you started where you wanted. Mexico pays for half of the wall, etc.

 

[B-Dubs]

Sure he moderates. It's all a negotiating tactic. Start big and then cut a deal more favorable to you than if you started where you wanted. Mexico pays for half of the wall, etc.

Trump doesn't know how not to be an asshole. It's just who he is. Y2Kev is right that any moderation he does will be on issues he hasn't talked about yet. He's not going to walk anything back because that would be like admitting he was wrong and that won't happen, so he's kept some issues in the pocket so he can do it that way.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Trump doesn't know how not to be an asshole. It's just who he is. Y2Kev is right that any moderation he does will be on issues he hasn't talked about yet. He's not going to walk anything back because that would be like admitting he was wrong and that won't happen, so he's kept some issues in the pocket so he can do it that way.

And unlike the general electorate he can't just say he never said something when there's proof he did. That only works on his base/some Republicans.

Thread Assignment

Just put Makai down for all Republican debates. It's what the people want.

 

[noshten]

Utah's first primary polls:

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't want a hugbox but I really wish hillarystans would be secure enough in their like of hillary to stop engaging the same posters in this thread and in the various OT threads on the same five arguments over and over. You can't win and you become really annoying.

what's a hugbox tho

 

[Holmes]

what's a hugbox tho

r/sandersforpresident

 

[Coriolanus]

Utah's first primary polls:

I'd vote for Not Decided too.

 

[NeoXChaos]

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/bernie-sanders-radical-past-how-the-vermont-230255076.html

Chris Cillizza ‏@TheFix 4m4 minutes ago
This article about Bernie Sanders's radical past should worry Democrats.

 

[Wilsongt]

http://thinkprogress.org/health/2016/01/18/3740439/gov-rick-snyder-flint-water-politicize/

After Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton (D) slammed Gov. Rick Snyder (R-MI) for the ongoing water crisis in Flint, Michigan, the governor voiced displeasure on Monday that she was “politicizing” the situation.

Calm your boy, PD.

 

[Retromelon]

Happy martin luther king day poligaf

"If donald trump is not sincere, he is the most dangerous man in america"

 

[Into]

Actually i do think Trump will win the GE. Amongst reasons are that the two party system will always benefit the other party, who did not have va president for 8 years. Much of GE will be spent on Hillary (she is winning Bernstans, soz) defending Obama's last 8 years. In addition to that Hillary and Jeb suffer the same problem, the "not this shit again" problem. She is nowhere near as charismatic as Bill, let alone Obama or Trump. Trump is a entertainer, in no country would this carry much weight, but in America it does, see Ronald Reagan.

I also would not be all that certain that minorities, in particular blacks hate Trump as much as liberals think (want) them to do. The name Trump has a almost legendary legacy to it through hip hop music, similar to Escobar, Gotti and others. This has been going on since late 80s, til this day. By no means do i think blacks will vote Trump over Hillary. I simply believe that he is not as hated or disliked as you would like to think. I do not see how they are as energized and interested in Hillary as they were in Obama. In fact i think that is impossible. That and the youngvote is always unpredictable and low.

By all means, save and ridicule me for this if Hillary wins. Because believe me, i will do the same if Trump wins, you will be eating crow, while watching The Crow, thinking of Sting the Crow and looking like Russel Crow(e).

Time for some nutella, anyone want some?

 

[Snake]

Btw Obama's approval rating in Gallup today hit 51%

Moody's election model still has Democrats winning the electoral college 326-212, Democrats still hold the keys (for now). Everything's coming up Milhouse

For context, at this point in George W. Bush's Presidency, he was at 34% approval, 60% disapproval, with nowhere to go but down.

 

[Makai]

Trump doesn't know how not to be an asshole. It's just who he is. Y2Kev is right that any moderation he does will be on issues he hasn't talked about yet. He's not going to walk anything back because that would be like admitting he was wrong and that won't happen, so he's kept some issues in the pocket so he can do it that way.

He walked back letting Syrian refugees into the country.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

what's a hugbox tho

Device used by autistic individuals to calm them down. It's generally used as a diss by Alt Right individuals (such as #GamerGate and Trump supporters) against feminists. Not sure why Y2Kev is using it.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Thread Assignment

Dibs on the VP debate. (It's 9 months from now so I have plenty of time to deliver an OP baby!)

 

[Mike M]

Utah's first primary polls:

Curious what the second choice numbers look like.

Hard not to be impressed with how Cruz has positioned himself in all this. I'm even wondering if a Trump IA win will be enough to end this if Cruz is nipping on his heels.

 

[Makai]

Thread Assignment

B-Dubs has the next Republican debate. I have the two after that. Would like to do the rest.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I also would not be all that certain that minorities, in particular blacks hate Trump as much as liberals think (want) them to do. The name Trump has a almost legendary legacy to it through hip hop music, similar to Escobar, Gotti and others. This has been going on since late 80s, til this day.

This is quantifiably, certifiably wrong

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

Donald Trump's favorability with Independents is -27 and with Democrats is -70. This is far and away the worst of the Republican field. He's up 27 with Republicans but this amounts overall to a 33/58 favorable rating.

 

[Manmademan]

Actually i do think Trump will win the GE. Amongst reasons are that the two party system will always benefit the other party, who did not have va president for 8 years. Much of GE will be spent on Hillary (she is winning Bernstans, soz) defending Obama's last 8 years. In addition to that Hillary and Jeb suffer the same problem, the "not this shit again" problem. She is nowhere near as charismatic as Bill, let alone Obama or Trump. Trump is a entertainer, in no country would this carry much weight, but in America it does, see Ronald Reagan.

I also would not be all that certain that minorities, in particular blacks hate Trump as much as liberals think (want) them to do. The name Trump has a almost legendary legacy to it through hip hop music, similar to Escobar, Gotti and others. This has been going on since late 80s, til this day. By no means do i think blacks will vote Trump over Hillary. I simply believe that he is not as hated or disliked as you would like to think. I do not see how they are as energized and interested in Hillary as they were in Obama. In fact i think that is impossible. That and the youngvote is always unpredictable and low.

By all means, save and ridicule me for this if Hillary wins. Because believe me, i will do the same if Trump wins, you will be eating crow, while watching The Crow, thinking of Sting the Crow and looking like Russel Crow(e).

Time for some nutella, anyone want some?

Oh, don't worry, you will be.

 

[Y2Kev]

what's a hugbox tho

a box where u hug

It's not about being polite; people who are not polite get banned. It's about determining if something is worth your time. In most of the cases I'm reading, the answer is that it was not possible to be worth it! Hah.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

"Maybe he should have been roughed up."
"The police are the most mistreated people in America."
"I don't like black people counting my money."
"80% of white people that are murdered are murdered by black men."


Trump has the black vote locked up.

 

[ivysaur12]

Curious what the second choice numbers look like.

Hard not to be impressed with how Cruz has positioned himself in all this. I'm even wondering if a Trump IA win will be enough to end this if Cruz is nipping on his heels.

Utah is Trump's worse state.

a box where u hug

It's not about being polite; people who are not polite get banned. It's about determining if something is worth your time. In most of the cases I'm reading, the answer is that it was not possible to be worth it! Hah.

I like hugs.

 

[B-Dubs]

B-Dubs has the next Republican debate. I have the two after that. Would like to do the rest.

I've also got the first in the general.

 

[A Human Becoming]

B-Dubs has the next Republican debate. I have the two after that. Would like to do the rest.

Poor b-dubs is going to face OP ridicule. You set the bar too high!

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Hug Box really is an ableist slur popularized on GAF by people that were all banned for calling Zoe Quinn a whore though.

Echo-chamber or "dumbfuck insecurity" are better terms.

 

[B-Dubs]

Poor b-dubs is going to face OP ridicule. You set the bar too high!

Hey, he's been using my format. I'll do just fine, still got a few tricks I haven't pulled out yet

 

[Manmademan]

For context, at this point in George W. Bush's Presidency, he was at 34% approval, 60% disapproval, with nowhere to go but down.

for context, Obama is at or above the point where Reagan was in his second term.

 

[Iolo]

Gabriel Debenedetti Verified account
‏@gdebenedetti

Just in: last night's Charleston Democratic debate on NBC was watched by 10.2 million viewers, second only to the CNN debate in Vegas

fucking DWS burying the debate on sunday

 

[Makai]

Hey, he's been using my format. I'll do just fine, still got a few tricks I haven't pulled out yet

I'm a little worried that Trump will win Iowa and then everyone drops out, making jokes impossible. That's why I'm doing Game of Thrones next since everyone is dead.