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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad on Ted Cruz:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/politics/terry-branstad-ted-cruz-defeat/index.html

Speaking to a small group of reporters at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit in Altoona, where several 2016 presidential candidates are slated to speak, Branstad labeled Cruz a "big oil" candidate whose victory would be "very damaging to our state."

"It would be a big mistake for Iowa to support him," Branstad said. "And I know he's ahead in the polls but the only poll that counts is the one they take on caucus night and I think that could change between now and then."

Asked by a reporter whether he wants to see Cruz defeated, Branstad answered: "Yes."
 

benjipwns

Banned
Bernie's got good "forget it, let's roll" hair to do that with because it's all white and he's half bald. Jeb kinda handles it better than you'd expect too, like when he was running around in that goofy hoodie, he'd be up five points if he showed up to the debates dressed like that and looking like he just woke up twenty minutes ago to do some cold lampin'. Ted Cruz with an uncontrolled hair day is really something frightening.

I've agreed not to speak of Rand's luscious locks.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
loooooooooooool

http://www.wbal.com/article/137123/2/poll-two-thirds-of-marylanders-view-hogan-favorably

This Thursday will mark exactly one year since Governor Larry Hogan took office.

A new poll finds that Hogan enjoys the highest popularity of any governor over the last 15 years.

The Gonzales Poll of 819 registered voters gives Larry Hogan a 67% approval rating, with 40% strongly approve of the job he is doing, and 27% somewhat approve.

Nineteen percent of those poll do not approve of the job Hogan is doing, and 14-percent expressed no opinion.

The telephone poll conducted by landline and cell phone questions 819 registered voters, over a six day period that ended Saturday.

The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5-percent.

The poll found that 94% of Republicans polled approved of the job Hogan is doing, along with 49% of Democrats and 78% of independents.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I see Nate's coming around to "Trump's most likely individual, BUT THE FIELD"

He just refuses to believe Americans are this stupid.

On a side note, I'm really hitting myself for not putting more money down on Trump. This is literally the easiest money I have ever made.
 

PBY

Banned
SCORCHED EARTH. Ted Cruz's Napoelonic will is not enough to win this race.

Cruz is done. He has a slight chance to win Iowa, but its pretty clear that the hatred everyone has towards him isn't something that's going to stay in private - people are going to actively sabotage this dude.
 
damn, real real bad

Not completely suspending his campaign, just all activities today.

Full statement:

Alexandria, Va. - January 19, 2016 - Earlier today in Iowa, a van transporting three campaign volunteers and a Carson campaign employee hit a patch of ice and flipped on its side where it was struck by another vehicle. Three of the passengers, including the campaign staffer driving, are currently being checked out at Cass County Memorial Hospital in Atlantic, Iowa. One volunteer is being transported to the trauma center at the University of Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, Nebraska.

Dr. Carson has spoken with the family of the volunteer being transported to Omaha, as well as the attending physician. Dr. Carson has cancelled all remaining campaign events today and will be traveling to Omaha this afternoon to be with the family during this difficult time.

Dr. Carson is asking people to join him in prayer for all the individuals and families involved.

https://www.bencarson.com/news/news...om-the-ben-carson-for-president-2016-campaign
 

PBY

Banned
I am going to be too busy weeping uncontrollably if he wins the general to post on GAF.

Most of me thinks that can't happen - but I see Trump tweeting the soul out of Jeb, and I think Cruz is going to lose this fight soon - and wonder what would happen when he just unloads on Hillary.
 
He just refuses to believe Americans are this stupid.

On a side note, I'm really hitting myself for not putting more money down on Trump. This is literally the easiest money I have ever made.

He leans right doesn't he? If he's got some skin in the game it makes sense he refuses to accept the anti establishment fervor coming from his "team" so to speak.
 
He leans right doesn't he? If he's got some skin in the game it makes sense he refuses to accept the anti establishment fervor coming from his "team" so to speak.
He's said before that he's a libertarian.

He also made his big splash into politics and data analysis when he predicted early on in the 2008 campaign that Obama would be the Democratic nominee, posting his analysis in the comments section of DailyKos.
 
He leans right doesn't he? If he's got some skin in the game it makes sense he refuses to accept the anti establishment fervor coming from his "team" so to speak.

Nate is libertarian and Trump winning the way he has won suggests that Republican voters don't care at all about individual liberty and care a great deal about hatred and bigotry. That would be a major blow to his view of America.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
It kills me how much Silver's making a tit of himself because of this childish feud he's got going on with Trump.
Nate "Punished" Silver still denied. Take the L bro.
I see Nate's coming around to "Trump's most likely individual, BUT THE FIELD"
I still think ya'll are too hard on Nate. He looks at historical precedent. If you want to say he holds onto it too tightly sure, but "childish feud" and "punished" are just petty.
 

PBY

Banned
I still think ya'll are too hard on Nate. He looks at historical precedent. If you want to say he holds onto it too tightly sure, but "childish feud" and "punished" are just petty.

I agree. That last tweet struck me as very weird analysis, but I might be missing something.
 
Ahh ... so its less about skin in the game and more about not wanting to take the L. I'm not sure how anyone who's paid attention over the last decade or three could think that American Conservatives lean towards personal liberty and reduced government.

I still think ya'll are too hard on Nate. He looks at historical precedent. If you want to say he holds onto it too tightly sure, but "childish feud" and "punished" are just petty.

I"m not particularly hard on him. Just shocked he's taking this long to acknowledge that past precedent might not be an accurate reflection of the current landscape.
 
https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/status/689474190810820608

CZGAzxnUgAEBu0b.jpg:orig


LMAO.
 
He just refuses to believe Americans are this stupid.

On a side note, I'm really hitting myself for not putting more money down on Trump. This is literally the easiest money I have ever made.

I've taken a bath today on Trump Yes and Kasich No in New Hampshire. That fucking ARG poll.

Thinking of just cashing out everything, taking a loss on Kasich and smaller gains on Trump. I'm still up a couple hundred (down about a hundred from yesterday because of the NH poll), but if Kasich actually wins this thing I'm fucked. Given the history of New Hampshire's primaries, Kasich coming back to win it wouldn't exactly surprise me.

The obvious parallel is McCain 2008, but I do think there's a difference in that McCain was the early frontrunner who stumbled for a bit, not a random dude who came out of nowhere. Still, Kasich is dangerous.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I've taken a bath today on Trump Yes and Kasich No in New Hampshire. That fucking ARG poll.

Thinking of just cashing out everything, taking a loss on Kasich and smaller gains on Trump. If Kasich comes out of nowhere to win New Hampshire, that wouldn't exactly surprise me given the history of that state's primaries.

Oh man, I'm not crazy enough to go by individual state. The polling is too erratic so the betting will get freaky. I just went with the primary and am doing damn fine at this point. More than doubled my money. Cerium went in way bigger around the same time I did so I'm curious as to how he's doing, I hope he comes back soon.
 
Ted Cruz refusing to back down from the fact that ethanol subsides are a terrible idea is legit respectable and he's right economically about ethanol, but so politically stupid that it makes me think that he believes the majority of what he says. He wouldn't even try to shift to the middle if he got the nomination and would probably stick with his absurd tax plan. This would be such an easy election...
 
Oh man, I'm not crazy enough to go by individual state. The polling is too erratic so the betting will get freaky. I just went with the primary and am doing damn fine at this point. More than doubled my money. Cerium went in way bigger around the same time I did so I'm curious as to how he's doing, I hope he comes back soon.

On the other hand, there's more money to be made going state by state if you're smart about it. Bernie NH was a fantastic buy a few weeks ago, though it's probably close to equilibrium pricing now. Clinton Iowa might become a really solid buy depending on the next few polls. I've made a shit-ton buying Trump Yes and shorting Rubio in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Massachusetts.

Basically Rubio was overpriced across the board, and Trump was way underpriced. Christie No in New Hampshire was also a really solid buy a few weeks ago.
 

HylianTom

Banned
The best part of Conan.
Absolutely.

My favorite Triumph song? Underage Bichon. (NSFW)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sTJp7fzLNQ

And Kasich stealing the momentum would be fantastic. Him winning 2nd could be just enough to confuse the establishment picture, but his campaign wouldn't be invested enough to maximize the boost from such a finish. Christie would probably drop, but he'd still be splitting votes with Jeb and Marco.
 
With Trump being as powerful as he is, the GOp really needed just one establishment person in the race. If they could have forced only one of Jeb!, Kasich, Christie or Rubio to stay in, they'd have had a better shot. They're spread way too thin now to really do anything about it.

Kasich would absolutely be their best bet. No real baggage (that people outside of Ohio know about). He's sufficiently conservative. From a swing state. Doesn't always sound completely crazy, even though he is. He can tout he has experience balancing the federal budget. He's prolife. He's perfect. He's a Reaganite. Of course, the GOP doesn't want that anymore....
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Young Marco is going to have to flip flop and start taking about kasich. I don't think he's ever acknowledged his existence.
 
Kasich-Haley would be such a good ticket for the GOP, lucky for us they're too concerned about Medicaid-expanding flag-removing RINOs to do that.

Instead lets nominate the guy who was a Democrat conveniently until he started running for president
 
Ted Cruz refusing to back down from the fact that ethanol subsides are a terrible idea is legit respectable and he's right economically about ethanol, but so politically stupid that it makes me think that he believes the majority of what he says. He wouldn't even try to shift to the middle if he got the nomination and would probably stick with his absurd tax plan. This would be such an easy election...

Cruz is, for better or worse, a true believer. I think thats one of the reasons why he scares establishment Republicans so much.
 
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