I'm watching Trump live. I don't like him, but I think he's playing a game, he's just trying to play on the team he can win it on. He'd run for the Democrats if he had a chance, but there's no way it would work, so he's running as a Republican.
People thought at first if Trump was the candidate, it would be a landslide for Clinton, I thought so too, but not anymore. The guy is very clever. The way he just explained how he's now pro-life was perfect. He can get away with anything.
His stances on some issues are radical, but how much that would really play against him I'm not sure. A lot of people don't vote in the US, and he can get a lot of those, he's the perfect candidate for the undecided voters who lean a bit right. Basically he has no plan, he just has to say whatever he has to to get support, and he's real good at it. The policies will come once elected, by working things out with his staff. No one will hold him accountable on the right, they'll just be glad to be in power and he won't be the outsider he claims to be since he doesn't have to once elected, it's just a trick to get support.
I can't say he's sure to win if he runs against Hillary or Bernie, but he has a real chance even if people say demographics play against him, because he could bring out the vote that usually doesn't show up. If Hillary gets some trump (ha!) cards, partly as a result of money moving her way from people who would normally finance a republican candidate, and partly as a result of people who thought they wouldn't get involved involving themselves due to being real afraid of her losing to Trump (Michelle Obama could run for her, Obama could too, Gore, the whole Avengers team), then she has good chances. But the more radical Bernie supporters risks hurting her, and the more money and support she gets the more Trump will be able to play on that itself to some extent.
If Bernie runs, then we end up in a situation where the debate risks becoming highly polarized, where Bernie will fuel a rally from the left, a strong people movement, but Trump could use that itself to neutralize it by making himself sound like a moderate, make people afraid of the other side, which he's really good at and for which he'll have plenty of margin after winning the candidacy.
So I don't know, best thing that can happen is Trump doesn't become the candidate, but I think unless they kick him out it's not happening. But if he runs, I put it at 50/50, and that's the optimistic scenario.
