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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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I do have to think that between now and 2024, a young candidate as far left or more left than Bernie Sanders economically will be voted into the House and will end up being a serious contender for 2024 in the primary. There's too much evidence that Dems under 30 like Socialism for someone not to try to make Socialism their campaign backbone in the future.
 
So after Iowa Caucus' who do you see dropping out in the same week?

Gone:

Huckabee
Santorum
Carson
Fiorina

Carson kinda sits in startk contrast to the other three. Mostly curious about when Kasich will drop.

2024 primaries (or God forbid 2020) should be much more interesting with Harris, Booker and one of the Castros, maybe Gillibrand in the mix.

None of whom btw will be a day over 60 before the primaries. Harris would be 60 by Election Day 2024 though

Know who's gonna be at a great age to run for president in 2024?

Oh yes.
 

Iolo

Member
Anyone taking odds on some real-ass shit going down at the GOP caucuses tomorrow?

Trump supporters arguing in a hall with a bunch of Cruz supporters with a bunch of Rubio supporters with ohhh at least one or two others maybe. All across the state. Trying to convince everyone else to bail on their candidate.

Over/under on a brawl somewhere?

There's no realignment on the Republican side, only an initial period of speeches by captains; and voting is by secret ballot, so it should be relatively boring from a violence perspective.
 
No idea. Even if it were, I don't think she would be pressured to indict her party's nominee in an election year.

(Note the following is hypothetical, I cannot see it applying to Clinton. )

If the recommendation was serious and compelling enough, you pretty much have to though. Otherwise it gets leaked, and then you're participating in a cover up in the eyes of the public and you tar your entire party apparatus along with you. Party loyalty has limits.

One would seriously hope that an Attorney General would have ethical discretion far before that point though. You'd hope that an Attorney General who seriously believed their own parties presidential candidate was guilty of serious crimes would prosecute them.


Well I mean she's right. PoliGAF is actually pretty left leaning and you're still in the hole by about 33% if you subtract the number of people who think Single Payer isn't worth fighting for from the ones who think it is. It's certainly not going to happen if basically no one is willing to fight for it. Circular as that may be it's true.
 

Iolo

Member
This is a good read on caucus math strategy.

Every Democratic campaign will have trained its volunteers on how to use caucus math. Many precinct captains will have cards showing how many individual supporters they need to get one, two, three, or more delegates from their precinct, depending on how many people attend and how many delegates are up for grabs. The Clinton campaign has created an app to help its volunteers figure out when it’s advantageous to make O’Malley viable.

Officially, the Sanders campaign denies training its volunteers to play games with delegates, Ben Smith, Ruby Cramer, and Evan McMorris-Santoro reported for Buzzfeed: [...]

[But] Sanders state director Robert Becker had no problem encouraging staff and volunteers to exploit the Iowa caucus system in 2008, when he was Bill Richardson’s state director here.

Becker in 2008 said:
This is just bare-knuckles politics. So if we’re in a situation on the flip side, where we hold all the cards, we’ve got some extra bodies, if Obama’s over there needing one, hey, throw it to him. Keep it away from Hillary. I know she and Bill [Richardson] are friends, but geez, Bill did not go to all 99 counties of Iowa to let her walk away with the nomination. […]

So if there’s a delegate up for grabs and we’ve got extras, go get it. Help Obama get it. Hell, give it to Dodd. Anything but giving it to Hillary or Edwards. We’ve got to get those two out of our way. […]
 
I think I get what she's saying. But I don't like that she said "never." Her word choice could've been more exact.

Yea thats what upset me, totally reasonable to say single payor isnt coming soon or whatever, but never, ever seems to just paint sanders as crazy to people who trust her but may switch.
 

Why does the American Left prefer single-payer over a universal multi-payer care system? Honest question since I'm rather uneducated on this.

At a glance, something as sweeping a change as single-payer seems impossible because of the structure of the federal government and the regional dominance of conservatives while I'd imagine we could keep incrementally improving the ACA to match a system like Germany's.
 

rjinaz

Member

Seems to me she's saying it's not going to happen as it is being proposed now. She wants something to be done, because something is better than nothing. And nothing is exactly what is going to happen if you focus entirely on single payer in this political climate.

I don't think she's suggesting America will never have single payer. I think her argument is we need to start moving in that direction as opposed to skipping ahead to the finish line.

For the record, I'm not a big fan of Obamacare as it is, but, it's still better than not having it if that makes sense. It's a step. Hopefully step 2 gets us closer to single payer whatever and whenever that will be.

I agree though she shouldn't have used those words never. Especially considering her past record on this issue.
 

Holmes

Member
I consider myself pretty left-wing, I mean I vote exclusively NDP in Canada. But I'm supporting Clinton because the status quo is working for me. The Obama administration's policies on LGBT rights and immigration have allowed me to marry my husband and immigrate here. I want his executive actions on guns (which are now status quo) defended and expanded. I got great health care through the federal marketplace (although Kaiser sucks) and at a reasonable price, but I have met firsthand people whose premiums are too high, so I want a President who will fight for lower health and prescription drug costs.

The LGBT community had its revolution over the past few years, and a very large portion are now happy the way it turned out last June. Sanders' rhetoric talk, at least to me, is off-putting for that reason. I don't want a revolution, I want someone who will expand on what's been achieved wrt LGBT rights to protect us federally in employment, housing, etc. Maybe that's a reason Sanders' revolution message isn't resonating with non-whites and the 45+.
 
You have been really hard on Bernie Sanders supporters recently, like I would argue that you see us as the enemy more so than you claim that we see you as the enemy. Everything is going to be fine. Hillary will get the nomination and yet even then it sounds like you won't be happy. It is indeed going to be a long 4-8 years for you if you don't ease up a bit.

I am a Bernie supporter. I understand and appreciate the traditional stance you are taking. I am not your enemy. I may not agree with it completely. But in the end, it's not going to matter.
Sorry but many of the feverish Bernie crazies on reddit has me dismayed as fuck. Some of the things I've read is not something unusual out of propaganda material. This combined with casual sexism (eg "xyz, and people want to make this woman commander in chief??") has me gagging. I don't see you as the enemy either.
 
Ted Cruz stole one of his favorite lines.... From a CANADIAN:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...s-from-a-canadian-politician/article28473649/

“What’s the difference between regulators and locusts?” the Texas senator asks. “You can’t use pesticide on the regulators.”

If that quip sounds familiar, it’s because it’s cribbed from former Alberta premier Ralph Klein. In 1990 Mr. Klein, then a first-term MLA from Calgary, described Edmonton: “A fine city with too many socialists and mosquitoes. At least you can spray the mosquitoes.”
 
that is really sad and disappointing. Hillary has the best chance to win but it pains me that Americans will never ever get Single Payer like rest of the Western world.

You guys are so fucked

Doesn't Germany have multi-payer? They do alright.

Healthcare doesn't have to be single-player to be fair and reasonable. The problem is underregulation, out of control costs, and a lack of legitimate competition. ACA addresses the last one and does some solid work on the first. Adding a public option and cost controls would take us most of the way to where we need to be.
 

rjinaz

Member
Sorry but many of the feverish Bernie crazies on reddit has me dismayed as fuck. Some of the things I've read is not something unusual out of propaganda material. This combined with casual sexism (eg "xyz, and people want to make this woman commander in chief??") has me gagging. I don't see you as the enemy either.

Awesome. If I hungout at that subreddit long enough I'd probably hate Bernie supporters too. Way to many angry people there.

I may be critical of Hillary at times once she becomes President but I promise I won't be unbearable. She can only do so much with a senate and house working against her. Hopefully that will change at some point during her presidency.
 
Sorry but many of the feverish Bernie crazies on reddit has me dismayed as fuck. Some of the things I've read is not something unusual out of propaganda material. This combined with casual sexism (eg "xyz, and people want to make this woman commander in chief??") has me gagging. I don't see you as the enemy either.

There will always be shitters in any organization, try not to let them affect your judgement of a group of many many more people. Try to understand where their anger is coming from. Emotions happen for a reason (even if the reasons are dumb). People are worried that Clinton will advance some key issues but stay mum on others because of certain biases she may or may not have.
 
that is really sad and disappointing. Hillary has the best chance to win but it pains me that Americans will never ever get Single Payer like rest of the Western world.

You guys are so fucked

This needs to stop. Switzerland doesn't have single payer, Germany doesn't have single payer, Japan doesn't have single payer. This crazy idea that single payer is the only solution to provide universal healthcare is ridiculous and is damaging to our potential options for improvement.
 

rjinaz

Member
Predictit has Hillary getting indicted at 35%? I'm gonna short that like a mug. Easy money.

I'm seriously considering it. Like how do you even think it's possible she will be indicted. Stop listening to conservative radio 24/7. I'm kind of kicking myself too. I would have had money on Trump and Hillary all the way back in August.
 
I consider myself pretty left-wing, I mean I vote exclusively NDP in Canada. But I'm supporting Clinton because the status quo is working for me. The Obama administration's policies on LGBT rights and immigration have allowed me to marry my husband and immigrate here. I want his executive actions on guns (which are now status quo) defended and expanded. I got great health care through the federal marketplace (although Kaiser sucks) and at a reasonable price, but I have met firsthand people whose premiums are too high, so I want a President who will fight for lower health and prescription drug costs.

The LGBT community had its revolution over the past few years, and a very large portion are now happy the way it turned out last June. Sanders' rhetoric talk, at least to me, is off-putting for that reason. I don't want a revolution, I want someone who will expand on what's been achieved wrt LGBT rights to protect us federally in employment, housing, etc. Maybe that's a reason Sanders' revolution message isn't resonating with non-whites and the 45+.

And how Sanders will damage such legacy? In no way he would. You are talking as if he would dismantle all those achievements, In my view, he understands how economics and its relationship with poltics create a new set of privilege that it is not easy to call out or dismantle. And yet, he has never ever downplayed the cultural oppression, that indeed is independent of economics, that minorities suffer. And he has been very vocal about it since day 1. If u think he hasnt, then you are not paying attenton.

Bernie Sanders brushes off being "slapped" with the label of democratic socialist and tells This Week moderator George Stephanopoulos Hillary Clinton is being "slapped with her e-mail controversy.

Didnt he mean that they are both being unfairly called out for that?
 

Makai

Member
Bernie Sanders brushes off being "slapped" with the label of democratic socialist and tells This Week moderator George Stephanopoulos Hillary Clinton is being "slapped with her e-mail controversy.
 

Bowdz

Member
CNN has been drilling the email stuff for the past few days. It's not just conservative media.

After reading Game Change a few days ago, I definitely think the media is all chasing the grand prize of being the one to bring down the Clintons. They hate the Clintons.
 

pigeon

Banned
Why does the American Left prefer single-payer over a universal multi-payer care system? Honest question since I'm rather uneducated on this.

At a glance, something as sweeping a change as single-payer seems impossible because of the structure of the federal government and the regional dominance of conservatives while I'd imagine we could keep incrementally improving the ACA to match a system like Germany's.

To be totally honest, my assessment is that it's because people are not aware of the universal healthcare systems in the world that aren't single-payer. The countries diplomatically closest to America (Canada, UK) have single-payer systemse.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
The media love to make it a close race...drives up ratings for results, and fills their corrupt little pockets with money.

Bingo. 538 even talked about this in an article months ago. Even if there isn't a real race - the media will make it so (though I do think there is a real race currently for the Dems)

Aside: I saw this article

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rubycramer/hillary-clinton-wants-to-talk-to-you-about-love-and-kindness

Called an old colleague of mine who is working on the HRC campaign, and she says it's pretty accurate. Colleague is from Minnesota - and called HRC an honorary Minnesotan due to how kind she is in personal matters. Friend had a miscarriage a few months ago, and the campaign gave her paid leave (even though it wasn't part of the job necessarily) and held her job till she got back.

EDIT: Aside, I suspect that's what thawed any ice between Barack and HRC - they both are genuinely kind people who believe in the Golden Rule.

I've heard similar stories about Sanders as well - he's very kind on a personal level.

Grumble - I agree with Sanders' proposals / ideas more than HRC, but I like HRC as a person. Still not sure how to vote. :(
 
I'm seriously considering it. Like how do you even think it's possible she will be indicted. Stop listening to conservative radio 24/7. I'm kind of kicking myself too. I would have had money on Trump and Hillary all the way back in August.

If you want to bet on Hillary, it's actually a great time to get in. Her shares were a lot more expensive a few months ago.
 
Most of Bernie supporters will mostly go to Hillary, and the ones that might go to Trump are probably mostly independents and/or probably was skeptical of Hillary anyway.

Sanders main focus is the domestic economy and not foreign trade. I think Mitt Romney used similar language against at least China. I don't think Trump will get a lot of crossover support because of trade. Plus, Trump is a broken record I doubt he will have detailed plans or go beyond the " All this foreign places are making our leaders look like losers! I will make deals so good it will make the Chinese's head spin." That real only go so far.
 

Armaros

Member
I mean, if he wins blacks and Latinos like he says he's going to, then obviously Democrats will have to cross over.

Story checks out.

Trump is going to get higher then single digits with blacks so democrats watch out.

(beating everyone other republican' numbers since the first Clinton election)

Is something that is being seriously said.

My brain hurts
 
Most of Bernie supporters will mostly go to to Hillary, and the ones that might go to Trump are probably mostly independents.

Sanders main focus is the domestic economy and not foreign trade. I think Mitt Romney used similar language against at least China. I don't think Trump will get a lot of crossover support because of trade. Plus, Trump is a broken record I doubt he will have detailed plans or go beyond the " All this foreign places are making our leaders look like losers! I will make deals so good it will make the Chinese's head spin."

Trump's polices are not going to come off as progressive once they are being compared to Hillary's. All of this fear that Trump is going to be the new Reagan has such a weak foundation when his unfavorables with Democrats are horrifically bad.
 

Yoda

Member
Trump: I Will Appeal To Sanders Voters On Trade, "Democrats Are Going To Cross Over"

Possible

I wouldn't write this off so quickly. He wouldn't need to steal many to tip the scales in his favor. For example, if 6% of college educated whites switched their vote last election, Romney would have won. TPP will drastically lower the quality of life for many people within a short timeframe (see NAFTA). If he can snake oil people into saying he'd stop it, which wouldn't be out of the questions because Bill Clinton was the one who signed the last massive trade agreement into law, people may swallow the bigotry in hopes of stopping more corporatism.

Trump's polices are not going to come off as progressive once they are being compared to Hillary's. All of this fear that Trump is going to be the new Reagan has such a weak foundation when his unfavorables with Democrats are horrifically bad.

He was also massively unfavored among Republicans when he started his campaign, those numbers have completely flipped.

Why does the American Left prefer single-payer over a universal multi-payer care system? Honest question since I'm rather uneducated on this.

At a glance, something as sweeping a change as single-payer seems impossible because of the structure of the federal government and the regional dominance of conservatives while I'd imagine we could keep incrementally improving the ACA to match a system like Germany's.

The ACA ignored the cost of healthcare and focused on insuring people in the admittedly corrupt insurance system we have. There is no downward pressure on healthcare costs because:

- Insurance companies operate as regional monopolies, similar to cable companies there is very little consumer choice in most areas.

- Medicare part D is not allowed to negoiate the price of drugs, thus Big Pharma can jack the price as high was it wants because they KNOW it will be paid for.

- Doctors are in short supply, yet medical school spots rarely increase, why? Because the AMA lobbies to kill expanding residency positions, thus limiting the supply of MDs and inflating their salaries.

- Providers are in a vicious cycle on getting under-reimbursed for expenditures, so they try to pass costs to future expenditures to make up for it, as a result the insurance companies opt to pay even less, than providers try to play accountant even MORE. Now it isn't common to see stupid shit on bills like "$1.75 - bandaid".

- Taxes weren't raised to cover the cost of putting millions of uninsured into the system, instead healthy people were coerced into the insurance market, paying the same obscene premiums for a service 95% of them won't take advantage of. Despite this injection of capital, insurance companies will still pinch pennies and only pay for the bare minimum of extreme cost cases (cancer, major surgery etc...)

The status quo WILL NOT WORK. The ACA was a band-aid, the middle-class of the country is what funds the healthcare industry, the middle-class of this country is not only shrinking, it commands less wealth and less purchasing powering every year... yet prices keep going up?
 

East Lake

Member
Trump: I Will Appeal To Sanders Voters On Trade, "Democrats Are Going To Cross Over"

Possible
Yeah.

Of all the voters who might be expected to resist the charms of Donald J. Trump, the two million members of the Service Employees International Union would most likely be near the top of the list.

The union, which endorsed Hillary Clinton in November, is widely regarded as one of the more progressive in the labor movement. It skews female and racially diverse — roughly the opposite of a Trump rally, in other words.

But the union’s president, Mary Kay Henry, acknowledged that Mr. Trump holds appeal even for some of her members. “There is deep economic anxiety among our members and the people we’re trying to organize that I believe Donald Trump’s message is tapping into,” Ms. Henry said.

In expressing her concern, Ms. Henry reflected a different form of anxiety that is weighing on some union leaders and Democratic operatives: their fear that Mr. Trump, if not effectively countered, may draw an unusually large number of union voters in a possible general election matchup. This could, in turn, bolster Republicans in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all of which President Obama won twice.

The source of the attraction to Mr. Trump, say union members and leaders, is manifold: the candidate’s unapologetically populist positions on certain economic issues, particularly trade; a frustration with the impotence of conventional politicians; and above all, a sense that he rejects the norms of Washington discourse.

“They feel he’s the one guy who’s saying what’s on people’s minds,” Thomas Hanify, the president of the Indiana state firefighters union, said of his rank and file.

Mr. Hanify said that Mr. Trump has so far dominated the “firehouse chatter” in his state. While he allowed that his members tilt Republican, he estimated that most followed the lead of the union’s international leadership and supported Mr. Obama in 2008 and 2012.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/30/business/donald-trump-unions.html
 
I wouldn't write this off so quickly. He wouldn't need to steal many to tip the scales in his favor. For example, if 6% of college educated whites switched their vote last election, Romney would have won. TPP will drastically lower the quality of life for many people within a short timeframe (see NAFTA). If he can snake oil people into saying he'd stop it, which wouldn't be out of the questions because Bill Clinton was the one who signed the last massive trade agreement into law, people may swallow the bigotry in hopes of stopping more corporatism.
6% is a huge swing, especially for a candidate not especially popular with that demographic.

He was also massively unfavored among Republicans when he started his campaign, those numbers have completely flipped
They're still very poor to the point where Trump would be in trouble if this were a 2 man primary. Look at Trump's favorables in the latest Selzer poll, he's only +3% with likely Republican voters, which is the worst out of the entire field.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
To be totally honest, my assessment is that it's because people are not aware of the universal healthcare systems in the world that aren't single-payer. The countries diplomatically closest to America (Canada, UK) have single-payer systemse.

UK's system is more different from the stereotypical single payer conception than universal multi payer, so I'm not sure that works.
 
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