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[User 463088]

Hey what's with that attitude? Doing what I'm doing and already assuming the worst so that it won't hurt as much?

I'm assuming the worst too. It's like we're all just making ourselves miserable as all hell. I've gotten 3 hours of sleep. I'm sick. I can't think. I can' teat.

I want my mommy. I want a Xanax. I want a bottle of Peanut Butter Vodka.

Halp.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Hey what's with that attitude? Doing what I'm doing and already assuming the worst so that it won't hurt as much?

No, assuming the worst because the data is telling me that's what to assume.

 

[A Human Becoming]

lol

He has to hold this position if he thinks Bernie is the best candidate. At least it's consistent.

No, he doesn't. Bernie is my pick but I'm not delusional.

 

[Iolo]

No, assuming the worst because the data is telling me that's what to assume.

Caucus polls have been wrong many times before.

 

[Y2Kev]

I do this all the time. Like when I bought fallout 4 and it was horrible, I was okay with it because I told myself it'd be horrible.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Caucus polls have been wrong many times before.

Naw, Selzer has a great history with it except for 2012. It can be a bit unpredictable though.

 

[VanMardigan]

Admission of an organized harassment campaign against Sarah Jeong goes here:

Every time someone posts something like this from Twitter, my head hurts. I feel like an old man. How am I supposed to read it? from the top down, bottom up? What are they even saying? who are these people? I have no clue what's happening in this image.

 

[Iolo]

Naw, Selzer has a great history with it except for 2012. It can be a bit unpredictable though.

Well, ignoring some other misses where she called it right but the % was way off, her average error is 3.3% per candidate, and Hill/Bern are separated by 3 points.

What I'm telling you is it would not be a shock.

Every time someone posts something like this from Twitter, my head hurts. I feel like an old man. How am I supposed to read it? from the top down, bottom up? What are they even saying? I have no clue what's happening in this image.

I suspect most people fluent in Twitter would have trouble parsing this particular image (I consider myself among this population).

 

[ugaboga232]

I do this all the time. Like when I bought fallout 4 and it was horrible, I was okay with it because I told myself it'd be horrible.

Pls let it simmer for a year with the modkit and you will see its true ~potential~ (honestly I really liked the tweaked gameplay/atmosphere, gave me a cut rate STALKER vibe, could use more weapons/mods/better quests and dialogue was a little eh but I am drinking the bethesda kool-aid anyway).

On Topic: adam dont worry hillary is 94% gonna win (95% =100% to scientists so I can't go that far) and I say that as a berniebro (gonna talk it back!).

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Well, ignoring some other misses where she called it right but the % was way off, her average error is 3.3% per candidate, and Hill/Bern are separated by 3 points.

What I'm telling you is it would not be a shock.

But then he would need to win by an additional three to make up for the delegate distribution.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Caucus polls have been wrong many times before.

Sure, which is why I'm not certain that Sanders will lose, but I am reasonably confident.

For what it's worth, my personal weighted aggregate I've put together is at 47.0 Clinton 46.2 Sanders 2.9 O'Malley 3.5 Undecided. It did have a (very) narrow Sanders lead up until a few days ago, but it's picking up a swing amongst undecided towards Clinton, which does not bode well at all.

Note that Sanders would still probably win the popular vote with the above numbers because of O'Malley support, so at least there will be some small cheer to reminisce about in August, but he would lose the delegates still, so overall meh.

 

[Fenderputty]

No, he doesn't. Bernie is my pick but I'm not delusional.

Not best candidate for his ideals, best candidate in general. He thinks people are enthusiastic about Bernie and not Hillary and that this will reflect in the results of not only the primary but the national. If by some chance he's wrong about Bernie and Hillary wins the primary, he still feels Dems aren't enthusiastic and she'll lose the national.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

I'm so anxious brahs.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Every time someone posts something like this from Twitter, my head hurts. I feel like an old man. How am I supposed to read it? from the top down, bottom up? What are they even saying? who are these people? I have no clue what's happening in this image.

It's from top down when you look at individual tweets. It's basically just saying that someone contacted Matt Breunig saying that Sarah Jeong should be "called out" or some shit and that he "did his part" for the calling out which really was just a long harassment campaign against Jeong.

 

[Iolo]

But then he would need to win by an additional three to make up for the delegate distribution.

And Selzer doesn't count voters registering at the precincts. Probably not much there, but I doubt the delegate distribution will be as much as a 3% bonus anyway.

We'll know shortly!

 

[User 463088]

Does anyone know where I could buy a marijuana? I think that would help me. I've never had a marijuana before. It would help, right?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

And Selzer doesn't count voters registering at the precincts. Probably not much there, but I doubt the delegate distribution will be as much as a 3% bonus anyway.

We'll know shortly!

It was +2.57 for Clinton relative to Edwards, so I wouldn't be so sure.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Basically, this guy is the ultimate Bernie Bro (other than "Punished Felix" who was banned for harassing Brianna Wu while Wu was being doxxed by Milo):

https://twitter.com/Lowenaffchen

Anyone who has "woke" in their profile name is also usually a racist Bernie Sanders supporter.

This guy is the worst though:

https://twitter.com/ByYourLogic

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

And Selzer doesn't count voters registering at the precincts. Probably not much there, but I doubt the delegate distribution will be as much as a 3% bonus anyway.

We'll know shortly!

If we kept unskewing like this we'd get any result we want. That's the point.

 

[ugaboga232]

Does anyone know where I could buy a marijuana? I think that would help me. I've never had a marijuana before. It would help, right?

Depends where you live. Actually, marijuana can increase anxiety in some/most people (makes your more excitable but may make you feel better if nothing is there to bother you but since today is caucus night probably not the best) but some people feel less stressed. Each brain is different and each source of anxiety is different. Try some breathing exercises or take a beta blocker. Benzo's are good but addictive. Alcohol is liquid benzos. And thats about every effective anxiety drug unless you have some MDMA/lsd/shrooms in a very controlled setting and are once again the right brain type/anxiety type (of which we dont know what separates them).

Can you see why we need more funding for research

 

[noshten]

Does anyone know where I could buy a marijuana? I think that would help me. I've never had a marijuana before. It would help, right?

Why don't you ask the States where it's legal or observe them for a while

 

[Iolo]

If we kept unskewing like this we'd get any result we want. That's the point.

let me be pre-depressed ok

 

[Avon Barksdale]

 

[Nudull]

The nominations are legit happening tonight? o.o

 

[User 463088]

Depends where you live. Actually, marijuana can increase anxiety in some/most people (makes your more excitable but may make you feel better if nothing is there to bother you but since today is caucus night probably not the best) but some people feel less stressed. Each brain is different and each source of anxiety is different. Try some breathing exercises or take a beta blocker. Benzo's are good but addictive. Alcohol is liquid benzos. And thats about every effective anxiety drug unless you have some MDMA/lsd/shrooms in a very controlled setting and are once again the right brain type/anxiety type (of which we dont know what separates them).

Can you see why we need more funding for research

Oh, I might break out the alcohol depending on how this shit goes. I just....it's so silly. I know a Hillary loss doesn't irrevocably damage her campaign, but I'm a competitive asshole. I want a win.

 

[ivysaur12]

Does anyone know where I could buy a marijuana? I think that would help me. I've never had a marijuana before. It would help, right?

You need the number of a guy named Biz?

 

[Drakeon]

The nominations are legit happening tonight? o.o

What? No, it's the start, it's just Iowa, the nominations are literally months away.

 

[rjinaz]

I'm assuming the worst too. It's like we're all just making ourselves miserable as all hell. I've gotten 3 hours of sleep. I'm sick. I can't think. I can' teat.

I want my mommy. I want a Xanax. I want a bottle of Peanut Butter Vodka.

Halp.

Actually I think I'm fine because I'm perfectly happy with Clinton as well. I was going to vote for her long before I even knew what Sanders was all about. I'll be bummed, and move on.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm nervous for trump. Come on Donald!!!

 

[rjinaz]

I do this all the time. Like when I bought fallout 4 and it was horrible, I was okay with it because I told myself it'd be horrible.

I mean it's not a gem like FO3 and New Vegas, but it's not horrible. Come on. I have put so many hours into it. Mostly settlement building I admit, but it's still fun.

 

[Officerrob]

I'm nervous for trump. Come on Donald!!!

I kinda want to see Trumps reaction to losing, imagine the scorched earth

 

[Retromelon]

Its do or die for the homie rand tonight. Put those 1000 precinct captains to work king and rescue the ungrateful liberals of poligaf from tyranny

 

[danm999]

I kinda want to see Trumps reaction to losing, imagine the scorched earth

I think we've had a taste of it already when Ben Carson was leading him.

 

[User 463088]

I've never played a Fallout game.

Come at me

Spoiler

Bernie

bros.

 

[rjinaz]

I've never played a Fallout game.

Come at me

Spoiler

Bernie

bros.

...

I can forgive your endless Hillary hawking. But this I cannot forgive. We are now enemies.

 

[Kangi]

I'm nervous, excited, and a little queasy. C'mon, Clinton/Trump.

 

[ugaboga232]

Oh, I might break out the alcohol depending on how this shit goes. I just....it's so silly. I know a Hillary loss doesn't irrevocably damage her campaign, but I'm a competitive asshole. I want a win.

Alcohol helps but its bad to use it medicinally (though its not much worse than benzos which is basically all we have for acute anxiety). Its ok if your team loses (tbh I get super upset when my favorite dota 2 team loses), remember that the establishment wont let anything get through anyway

Spoiler

bethesbros before berniebros

 

[User 463088]

...

I can forgive your endless Hillary hawking. But this I cannot forgive. We are now enemies.

Alcohol helps but its bad to use it medicinally (though its not much worse than benzos which is basically all we have for acute anxiety). Its ok if your team loses (tbh I get super upset when my favorite dota 2 team loses), remember that the establishment wont let anything get through anyway

Spoiler

bethesbros before berniebros

More like a celebratory shot or three. I can't afford to get drunk, I have a conference call in the morning. But, if I don't drink enough for my Queen her blood lust becomes insatiable.

 

[rjinaz]

Lol, people take gaming way too seriously some times. There are so many games I don't like and refuse to play. Bah.

Hey if you don't have pot and don't want booze you can always try poppy tea. Calms the nerves man.

 

[User 463088]

Lol, people take gaming way too seriously some times. There are so many games I don't like and refuse to play. Bah.

Hey if you don't have pot and don't want booze you can always try poppy tea. Calms the nerves man.

I just don't like RPGs that much. There are a few I like, but they're few and far between. For me, I'm all about the platformer. I love me a good 2D/3D platformer. I also love Splatoon, Binding of Issac, PVZ Garden Warfare, stuff like that. The only RPG I really loved was Child of Light and that was more artistic than anything. I also hate play Call of Duty.

 

[Rafa=FedKilla]

Did any see that weird math that Cruz's campaign manager posted that he postulated the turnout would need to be 300K for Selzer's numbers to be correct?

 

[ugaboga232]

Lol, people take gaming way too seriously some times. There are so many games I don't like and refuse to play. Bah.

Hey if you don't have pot and don't want booze you can always try poppy tea. Calms the nerves man.

He doesnt want to drink or smoke but lets just have some opiate tea (btw caffeine makes you anxious so does lack of sleep)

More like a celebratory shot or three. I can't afford to get drunk, I have a conference call in the morning. But, if I don't drink enough for my Queen her blood lust becomes insatiable.

Booze for the Booze god?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Oh, I might break out the alcohol depending on how this shit goes. I just....it's so silly. I know a Hillary loss doesn't irrevocably damage her campaign, but I'm a competitive asshole. I want a win.

If we suppose that Betfair's markets are reasonably accurate (they tend to perform marginally better than polls), they currently have Sanders as 35% to win Iowa and 19% to win the Democratic nomination. Given Sanders' chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa is 0%, we can say that his chance to win the Democratic nomination if he wins Iowa is considered to be 55% by the markets (0.55*0.35=0.19). Obviously not irrevocable damage, but heavy damage none the less; she'd go from an 81% favourite to a 45% underdog.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

I just don't like RPGs that much. There are a few I like, but they're few and far between. For me, I'm all about the platformer. I love me a good 2D/3D platformer. I also love Splatoon, Binding of Issac, PVZ Garden Warfare, stuff like that. The only RPG I really loved was Child of Light and that was more artistic than anything. I also hate play Call of Duty.

You hate play? You're on it almost all the time... Why do you hate play?

 

[Cheebo]

Adam take some NyQuil so it will knock you out. Wake up in middle of night and check to see who won. There you go.

 

[ugaboga232]

Adam take some NyQuil so it will knock you out. Wake up in middle of night and check to see who won. There you go.

Antihistamines actually cause cognitive defect in the long run so I recommend using them as sparingly as possible.

 

[User 463088]

You hate play? You're on it almost all the time... Why do you hate play?

Because I feel like I have to play it. I also bitch the entire time. It's not fun to me, but I keep playing it anyway. I play with my nephews sometimes, so there's that too. I enjoy it for about 2 games, but I always get the shit tier players. (I went 34-9 the other night, the next best person on my team was 11-22).

Adam take some NyQuil so it will knock you out. Wake up in middle of night and check to see who won. There you go.

Ya, but....no. I enjoy this. The anticipation. The nerves. The eventual slow decent into a deep depression. It's politics baby. It's my drug. The main reason I didn't sleep last night was that I DVR'd Grease live. I watched it and loved it. Interestingly, not the gayest thing I did yesterday.

Also, I'm going to bitch slap my local news lady. She's said that there's going to be "record turnout" in Iowa tonight. She's said it 3 times. I have no idea where she got that idea from. Typical establishment media, amirite?

 

[ivysaur12]

Is it 5pm yet?

 

[rjinaz]

Is it 5pm yet?

Yes?

Oh you mean our time? No

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Bing predictions are in

Reminder that they had good predictions on Scottish referendum and 2014 mid terms.

Hillary +3 on Bernie in IA. NH feels Bern. SC/NV burn Bern.
Trump wins first 4 states.