• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

Status
Not open for further replies.

SmokeMaxX

Member
If we suppose that Betfair's markets are reasonably accurate (they tend to perform marginally better than polls), they currently have Sanders as 35% to win Iowa and 19% to win the Democratic nomination. Given Sanders' chance of winning the nomination if he loses Iowa is 0%, we can say that his chance to win the Democratic nomination if he wins Iowa is considered to be 55% by the markets (0.55*0.35=0.19). Obviously not irrevocable damage, but heavy damage none the less; she'd go from an 81% favourite to a 45% underdog.

The 19% factors in various other scenarios that, although rare in isolation, adds up to a few percentage points when combined. For example, it factors in that Clinton could get indicted, Clinton could die or be physically unable to be elected, or Sanders could surge and crush Clinton in states that he is getting crushed right now. Things like that.
 

rjinaz

Member
We'll get this in November. And it'll be even more tragic and better then.

I get the feeling he'll start another conspiracy like birther movement. How he was sabotaged by the establishment. There will probably be some kind if cheating/polling fraud accusations as well. Trump does not lose. Let us not forget this.
 
Adam, you need to relax. Might i suggest that you play Darkest Dungeon? Game has very soothing music and a calm, low light ambiance. Should hit the spot.
 
adam I would shoot you with a tranquilizer if I could to calm you down.

that'smyfetish.jpeg

I'm actually pretty chill. I mean, I'm not like about to pass out like I was a la Ohio's 2008 primary. I just can't eat, sleep or sit still. Otherwise, I'm fine.

I'm watching MSNBC. Chuck Todd is on my screen. I'm managing. I'm managing.
 

Cheebo

Banned
If Bernie wins tonigh I think he'll be the slight favorite to be nominee. If Trumps wins he will be nominee. If Cruz wins then Trump will begin to collapse and Rubio will sneak in and win the nomination.
 
So among those who lean left, are you afraid of a Rubio/Haley ticket? Basically, you want a Trump victory so he'll get crushed in the general by Billary and Castro?

I think Clinton wins either way, but a Trump nomination could give the Democrats a chance at taking back the House.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The way I see it: if Trump wins, he is the nominee. If Cruz wins, Trump is still very likely to be the nominee but now no longer guaranteed. If Clinton wins, she is the nominee. If Sanders wins, it is a coin flip.

My personal hope is for Cruz and Sanders to go through - Cruz just to elongate the GOP process as long as possible.
 

ctothej

Member
I'm so anxious brahs.

Glad I'm not the only one. It's funny because I'm not even sure who I'd vote for right now. I like Bernie's policies better. I think Clinton's a more effective politician, with a better grasp on foreign policy. I've got money on Hillary to win, but if Bernie wins that'd help my broke ass more in the long run.
 
MSNBCs Media Center is being run my Microsoft.
Microsoft is also helping the Dems report the results.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE.
The establishment fix is in.
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
Anybody seen any data (or anecdotes) on busing/driving Bernie supporters back to their home precincts?
There's been talk about it, but it's a huge commitment (especially time wise) that most people wouldn't want to do. Someone posted an article about it but I'm not sure how many pages back that was. I can't imagine this would even affect a double digit percentage of his supporters.
 

Teggy

Member
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.
 
So Rubio No shares in the R Nomination market are down to like 65c for some reason. When he comes in 3rd in Iowa those will probably go back up to the 75-80c range. It's a pretty good buy if you have some extra money on hand.
 

Iolo

Member
There's been talk about it, but it's a huge commitment (especially time wise) that most people wouldn't want to do. Someone posted an article about it but I'm not sure how many pages back that was. I can't imagine this would even affect a double digit percentage of his supporters.

I know, I posted an article about it ;) but was curious if anything was happening on the ground today, what with them saying they rented out 'every bus in 4 states' or something.
 

rjinaz

Member
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.

Nah not really. I want Trump to win and watch the Republicans have to face reality right off the bat. Tired of seeing those other clowns.
 

Iolo

Member
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.

I would rather see Cruz win and see the Republican primary go full-on Lord of the Flies.
 
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.

I could see it being an issue if the Democratic nomination drags on for months and they keep damaging each other and polarizing the support base, while Trump basically strolls to the Republican convention. But the other GOP candidates also probably have enough money to stay in for a while.
 
Nine points.

Nine nine.

Nine nine nine.

9-9-9.

HERMAN CAIN IS TRUMP'S VP.

uKuBunO.gif
 
You know, Iowa is my favorite : gag : Big Ten football team. : gag : Totally. Go : gag : Hawkeyes.

Ugh, I feel dirty.

But wait!

Iowa is in the Big Ten.
Ohio State is in the Big Ten.
I am in Ohio.
I am a $hilLIARy supporter.
How deep does this rabbit hole go!?
 

PBY

Banned
You know, Iowa is my favorite : gag : Big Ten football team. : gag : Totally. Go : gag : Hawkeyes.

Ugh, I feel dirty.

But wait!

Iowa is in the Big Ten.
Ohio State is in the Big Ten.
I am in Ohio.
I am a $hilLIARy supporter.
How deep does this rabbit hole go!?

It really needs to be 7 already
 

sangreal

Member
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.

I feel like the whole house of cards he has built could collapse if he loses Iowa, idk. So much of his persona he has built up is based on being a winner.
 
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.

I want Trump to narrowly lose to Cruz and Rubio to lose third-place to Carson. Chaos.
 

Makai

Member
None of you guys would rather see Trump lose in Iowa? He's probably going to win a bunch of the upcoming states, so personally I'd rather see things a bit messier, and more important, see what kind of meltdown he would have.
I want him to win every state so I can laugh at the endorsement/favorablity guys some more. :)
 

VanMardigan

has calmed down a bit.
It's from top down when you look at individual tweets. It's basically just saying that someone contacted Matt Breunig saying that Sarah Jeong should be "called out" or some shit and that he "did his part" for the calling out which really was just a long harassment campaign against Jeong.

Ah, that makes it 1000x clearer, thanks. I guess the missing piece was me not knowing the context or any of the people involved.
 

PBY

Banned
I really think that if Trump loses Iowa, Rubio's 3-2-1 plan actually might work. Or at least kick in right after SC.

So I'd really love a Trump win.
 
I want Trump to win all states to ensure that the Bush-Rubio neocon establishment puppets don't get a shot.

I want Trump to humiliate Bush-Rubio in Florida decisively

Hillary 2016
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom