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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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B

Black Mamba

Member
What's the best outcome for Rubio?

1. Trump wins Iowa

2. Cruz wins Iowa.

Assuming he finishes 3rd either way.

The argument for 1 is that Trump wins and then Cruz loses his best chance and his campaign flutters leaving Rubio as the only "not-Trump" alternative. The argument against 1 is that Trump wins Iowa, a state that is probably his weakest right now, and looks inevitable moving forward.

The argument for 2 is that Cruz winning Iowa hurts Trump, makes him look weaker and opens the door for Rubio to come in as Cruz isn't a real alternative to Trump. The argument against is that Cruz becomes formidable and becomes the "not-Trump" candidate putting Rubio on the back burner against Trump.


So, to which one do y'all subscribe. Curious to hear.

Again, I'm asking if you're Rubio and you're finishing 3rd tonight, what result would you prefer from the 2 choices?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Trump just told his supporters to beat the hell out of anyone who was getting ready to throw a tomato at him. He promised he'd pay their legal fees.

I mean....holy hell.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Black Mamba said:
What's the best outcome for Rubio?

1. Trump wins Iowa

2. Cruz wins Iowa.

Assuming he finishes 3rd either way.

The argument for 1 is that Trump wins and then Cruz loses his best chance and his campaign flutters leaving Rubio as the only "not-Trump" alternative. The argument against 1 is that Trump wins Iowa, a state that is probably his weakest right now, and looks inevitable moving forward.

The argument for 2 is that Cruz winning Iowa hurts Trump, makes him look weaker and opens the door for Rubio to come in as Cruz isn't a real alternative to Trump. The argument against is that Cruz becomes formidable and becomes the "not-Trump" candidate putting Rubio on the back burner against Trump.


So, to which one do y'all subscribe. Curious to hear.

Again, I'm asking if you're Rubio and you're finishing 3rd tonight, what result would you prefer from the 2 choices?
Click to expand...

I think Rubio is PRAYING Cruz takes Iowa.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Reposting for new page:

What's the best outcome for Rubio?

1. Trump wins Iowa

2. Cruz wins Iowa.

Assuming he finishes 3rd either way.

The argument for 1 is that Trump wins and then Cruz loses his best chance and his campaign flutters leaving Rubio as the only "not-Trump" alternative. The argument against 1 is that Trump wins Iowa, a state that is probably his weakest right now, and looks inevitable moving forward.

The argument for 2 is that Cruz winning Iowa hurts Trump, makes him look weaker and opens the door for Rubio to come in as Cruz isn't a real alternative to Trump. The argument against is that Cruz becomes formidable and becomes the "not-Trump" candidate putting Rubio on the back burner against Trump.


So, to which one do y'all subscribe. Curious to hear.

Again, I'm asking if you're Rubio and you're finishing 3rd tonight, what result would you prefer from the 2 choices?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Black Mamba said:
Reposting for new page:

What's the best outcome for Rubio?

1. Trump wins Iowa

2. Cruz wins Iowa.

Assuming he finishes 3rd either way.

The argument for 1 is that Trump wins and then Cruz loses his best chance and his campaign flutters leaving Rubio as the only "not-Trump" alternative. The argument against 1 is that Trump wins Iowa, a state that is probably his weakest right now, and looks inevitable moving forward.

The argument for 2 is that Cruz winning Iowa hurts Trump, makes him look weaker and opens the door for Rubio to come in as Cruz isn't a real alternative to Trump. The argument against is that Cruz becomes formidable and becomes the "not-Trump" candidate putting Rubio on the back burner against Trump.


So, to which one do y'all subscribe. Curious to hear.

Again, I'm asking if you're Rubio and you're finishing 3rd tonight, what result would you prefer from the 2 choices?
Click to expand...

Rubio is praying for Cruz to take it. That's the only way this race doesn't end tonight.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
adam387 said:
You know, Iowa is my favorite : gag : Big Ten football team. : gag : Totally. Go : gag : Hawkeyes.

Ugh, I feel dirty.

But wait!

Iowa is in the Big Ten.
Ohio State is in the Big Ten.
I am in Ohio.
I am a $hilLIARy supporter.
How deep does this rabbit hole go!?
Click to expand...

You are okay with cheering for mediocre Kirk Ferentz... For shame Adam.. For shame.
 
F

Farmboy

Member
I'd say Cruz beating Trump is better for Rubio, as the narrative will be 'Trump: overhyped?', which Rubio might leverage. But the establishment seems to disagree, judging by the way they've attacked Cruz. Maybe they're hoping Rubio will edge out Cruz and take second place, which of course would be even better. (Coming in second to Cruz, though, would be even better than that).
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
B-Dubs said:
Rubio is praying for Cruz to take it. That's the only way this race doesn't end tonight.
Click to expand...

Nah dog, every poll shows that Trump is weak head-to-head. Cruz wins Iowa he becomes the anti-Trump candidate and keeps Rubio on the sidelines. The weaker Cruz looks the better it is for Rubio.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Trump+cruz has more than 50% of the conservative voter intention no? Thus if trump takes corn country and cruz drops? Yeah, goood luck, rubs. Aint no way jebbo is gonna drop before him.

Thus ideally cruz takes it, but really, i see no path for rubs in this cycle.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
ugaboga232 said:
Antihistamines actually cause cognitive defect in the long run so I recommend using them as sparingly as possible.
Click to expand...

Really? Well crap. I've been using them often to go to sleep to deal with insomnia.


Black Mamba said:
Reposting for new page:

What's the best outcome for Rubio?

1. Trump wins Iowa

2. Cruz wins Iowa.

Assuming he finishes 3rd either way.

The argument for 1 is that Trump wins and then Cruz loses his best chance and his campaign flutters leaving Rubio as the only "not-Trump" alternative. The argument against 1 is that Trump wins Iowa, a state that is probably his weakest right now, and looks inevitable moving forward.

The argument for 2 is that Cruz winning Iowa hurts Trump, makes him look weaker and opens the door for Rubio to come in as Cruz isn't a real alternative to Trump. The argument against is that Cruz becomes formidable and becomes the "not-Trump" candidate putting Rubio on the back burner against Trump.


So, to which one do y'all subscribe. Curious to hear.

Again, I'm asking if you're Rubio and you're finishing 3rd tonight, what result would you prefer from the 2 choices?
Click to expand...

Cruz. I think the party is going to take out Cruz; and Trump not winning hits him hard as well. On top of it, Trump aims his attacks on Cruz and spares Rubio a bit longer. Trump winning NH but Rubio coming in second might take Cruz out at that point; and then it turns into Rubio vs Trump, where the party might fully be backing Rubio.

I still think people really, really underestimate Trump in a general election. No one thought he'd be making it this far, either.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Nah dog, every poll shows that Trump is weak head-to-head. Cruz wins Iowa he becomes the anti-Trump candidate and keeps Rubio on the sidelines. The weaker Cruz looks the better it is for Rubio.
Click to expand...

Cruz is up really only in Iowa. All winning Iowa does is weaken Trump - Rubio leads Cruz in a significant amount of the other states.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Roland_Gunner said:
Nah dog, every poll shows that Trump is weak head-to-head. Cruz wins Iowa he becomes the anti-Trump candidate and keeps Rubio on the sidelines. The weaker Cruz looks the better it is for Rubio.
Click to expand...

If Trump wins tonight it's all over. Rubio needs this to be a race so he can sneak through. He needs Cruz to start peeling support off Trump and for Jeb and the rest to drop.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Black Mamba said:
What's the best outcome for Rubio?

1. Trump wins Iowa

2. Cruz wins Iowa.

Assuming he finishes 3rd either way.

The argument for 1 is that Trump wins and then Cruz loses his best chance and his campaign flutters leaving Rubio as the only "not-Trump" alternative. The argument against 1 is that Trump wins Iowa, a state that is probably his weakest right now, and looks inevitable moving forward.

The argument for 2 is that Cruz winning Iowa hurts Trump, makes him look weaker and opens the door for Rubio to come in as Cruz isn't a real alternative to Trump. The argument against is that Cruz becomes formidable and becomes the "not-Trump" candidate putting Rubio on the back burner against Trump.


So, to which one do y'all subscribe. Curious to hear.

Again, I'm asking if you're Rubio and you're finishing 3rd tonight, what result would you prefer from the 2 choices?
Click to expand...

I'd say the best scenario would be a Cruz victory. Trump is quite ahead in NH, and I think it's in all serious candidate's best interest that he not win both states. Cruz already has enough cash on hand to last no matter what and if he wins a state I think the party will really take the knives out against him - which helps Rubio (and Trump).

This is looking like a four man race - Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and one more establishment candidate (Christie or Kasich...basically whoever comes out of NH/NV the best). Eventually it'll be a three man race (Trump, Cruz, Rubio) IMO. The more Cruz wins, the more Rubio benefits.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
If you want Rubio to have a chance, then you want a Cruz win tonight. A Trump win tonight and a Trump win in NH is a trend. Two contests with two different winners doesn't damage Rubio, really. And I do not want Rubio to get the nomination. Period.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
B-Dubs said:
If Trump wins tonight it's all over. Rubio needs this to be a race so he can sneak through. He needs Cruz to start peeling support off Trump and for Jeb and the rest to drop.
Click to expand...

Completely agree. There's just no way another candidate has a chance. Trump will have too much momentum going forward especially since he's polling favorably is most states. Just 3 hours or so until we know!
 
P

PBY

Banned
rjinaz said:
Completely agree. There's just no way another candidate has a chance. Trump will have too much momentum going forward especially since he's polling favorably is most states. Just 3 hours or so until we know!
Click to expand...

Yup.

Also - we can't assume that if Cruz wins and Trump loses the Trump polling will remain the same in NH, SC or the other states. We have no concept of what a loss will due for his message of winning, how a loss will make him react (hint - it could be really poorly and be a bad look), or a million other factors.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I think Rubio would much rather have Cruz win then Trump. If Trump wins, he's taking the first four states and has ALL of the momentum going into Super Tuesday. With Cruz, it's different.
 
T

Teggy

Member
MSNBC needs to stop talking about how Trump is going to win over 10% of the black vote, unions and New York. This is supposed to be my safe bubble, they need to quit it,
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Teggy said:
MSNBC needs to stop talking about how Trump is going to win over 10% of the black vote, unions and New York. This is supposed to be my safe bubble, they need to quit it,
Click to expand...
Well he'll probably got more than ten percent of the vote in New York.

I mean, not much more but still.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
B-Dubs said:
If Trump wins tonight it's all over. Rubio needs this to be a race so he can sneak through. He needs Cruz to start peeling support off Trump and for Jeb and the rest to drop.
Click to expand...

I disagree with both of these points. Even now Trump's support is limited to working class white males. He's very unpopular outside of that base. More than anything what Rubio needs is for the other candidates to get pushed out and support to coalesce around him.

Rubio also has to get back in the public mind again. I can't find it, but earlier today on twitter there was a study showing that if you look at free media the last month Trump got 60% of the mentions, Cruz 30%, and Rubio was at 4%. He can't get back in the race with numbers even close to that.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Loudninja said:
Whaatt?
Click to expand...

Granted this was Steve Schmidt (ran McCain's campaign) and some of the other Republican operatives they have on there, but no one is challenging them on it. He said that he could win New York, Pennsylvania (appealing to blacks in South Philly) and Michigan (unions). And he stated mid-teens for the amount of the AA vote that he would win.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Teggy said:
Granted this was Steve Schmidt (ran McCain's campaign) and some of the other Republican operatives they have on there, but no one is challenging them on it. He said that he could win New York, Pennsylvania (appealing to blacks in South Philly) and Michigan (unions). And he stated mid-teens for the amount of the AA vote that he would win.
Click to expand...

Steve Schmidt thought Palin was a good idea
 
L

lenovox1

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
I disagree with both of these points. Even now Trump's support is limited to working class white males. He's very unpopular outside of that base. More than anything what Rubio needs is for the other candidates to get pushed out and support to coalesce around him.

Rubio also has to get back in the public mind again. I can't find it, but earlier today on twitter there was a study showing that if you look at free media the last month Trump got 60% of the mentions, Cruz 30%, and Rubio was at 4%. He can't get back in the race with numbers even close to that.
Click to expand...

Rubio needed that 3 months ago.

Now? If Trump wins, the media's narrative is set.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Teggy said:
Granted this was Steve Schmidt (ran McCain's campaign) and some of the other Republican operatives they have on there, but no one is challenging them on it. He said that he could win New York, Pennsylvania (appealing to blacks in South Philly) and Michigan (unions). And he stated mid-teens for the amount of the AA vote that he would win.
Click to expand...

What reason did give for a win in New York against a former two-term senator from New York?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Unrelated, but while looking through for that study on free media I saw a tweet with the results of the '76 Democratic caucus:

Uncommitted 37.2%
Jimmy Carter 27.6%
Birch Bayh 13.2%
Fred Harris 9.9%

Uncommitted crushed it! And we think 2016 is nuts.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
They keep having Steve Kornacki go on TV to say only three times has a Democrat won both Iowa and New Hampshire, and all three times they went on to get the nomination. They are forgetting to mention that all three then went on to lose the general
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Unrelated, but while looking through for that study on free media I saw a tweet with the results of the '76 Democratic caucus:

Uncommitted 37.2%
Jimmy Carter 27.6%
Birch Bayh 13.2%
Fred Harris 9.9%

Uncommitted crushed it! And we think 2016 is nuts.
Click to expand...

Same as in 72. We tried to stop McGovern, but it didn't work well.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
I've been watching Fox News all week and they really want Bernie to win. If Hillary takes it tonight (which I think she will) they will have nothing to talk about on the Dem's side.

I think Trump has a good chance at underperforming too. #prayingfortrump
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
adam387 said:
Why is Brian "Liar" Willams tainting my beautiful time with my future wife Rachel Maddow and my spirit animal Chuck Todd?
Click to expand...
adam pls, it's Lyin' Brian Williams.

What time should results be near finalized? I might watch a movie while the caucusing is going on.

EDIT:
adam387 said:
Same as in 72. We tried to stop McGovern, but it didn't work well.
Click to expand...
We? You were born 15 years later! Fake old man.
 
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