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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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D

disastermouse

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
I suppose the fact that 1/3 of young Republicans also picked the "flee the country option" if Trump was elected, or that 40% of Iowa Republicans have negative opinions of him, or that his overall negatives are already higher than any nominee in modern political history concern you either?

Trump has managed to develop a committed base of working class white men who can pull him through a divided Republican field but he's very unpopular among whites with college educations, women, and minorities. You can't get anywhere close to a majority in the general election with those numbers.
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We'll see, because those are the candidates as I see them coming out of the nomination process.

Republicans will vote for him because they'll be voting against Clinton, and Republicans vote against more willingly than Democrats.
 
Tesseract

Tesseract

Banned
let's go bernie, woo!

i love the smell of socialism in da evenings

KillerMike_BernieSanders.jpg
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Melkr_ said:
I do also think Hillstans are underestimating Trump, specially once he moderates his message. I mean, I dont want to underplay Sanders appeal, but the fact that Bernie has put her into a corner says a lot about her weakenesses.
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Underestimating Trump? Sure - the absolute floor for any Republican in this environment is probably something like 45%. It most likely won't be the double-digit blowout some people are expecting.

Moderating his message? No way Jose. For one I don't even think he'll really try to, but more importantly his brand is significantly damaged with minorities. He might say some nice things that make white people feel better about voting for him but that doesn't mean shit for say, the Puerto Rican voters in Florida who may very well decide the election.

As much as I like Bernie, I honestly believe he's only really gained as much traction as he has because he's simply the anti-Hillary, and his message is actually different from hers, unlike Webb, Chafee or O'Malley (O'Malley is pretty mainstream liberal similar to Hillary, Webb and Chafee are obviously more conservative). Had Biden or Warren jumped in you would have seen them pick up some of Bernie's support.

Btw if Hillary wins doesn't that fact alone completely undermine any "But Bernie has the ENTHUSIASM!" argument? I'm just saying.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Samarecarm said:
I think the difference in narratives is driven partially by the fact that Trump is overperforming expectations whereas Clinton is underperforming them

edit: expectations prior to the race, I mean
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Oh I agree. I just think we should take a step back and realize that Trump and Clinton are roughly in the same spot with a stranglehold on their respective nominations (and yes, I'm prepared to eat crow if/when Trump becomes the Republican nominee). You can't argue that Clinton is in trouble and then in the same breath declare that Trump will definitely be the Republican nominee. Actually Trump's numbers are deceiving since there are so many candidates still in the race and he's not many people's second choice (or is that just in regards to Iowa? Not sure).
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Basileus777 said:
I would put the absolute floor for Trump below what McCain did.
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I dunno - 08 was pretty bad for the Republicans. Plus McCain's vote tally rounds up to 46.

I think the GOP would stand more to lose in an election following a disastrous two-term Republican president, versus one following an okay two-term Democratic president. However Trump's personality certainly factors into that.

ivysaur12 said:
Do we think that Heitkamp would be a good VP for Hillary? She seems perfect.

God, she's great.
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Yeah sure. I think I'd rather have Klobuchar though because Clinton-Klobuchar has a nice ring to it.

And Ellison gets her Senate seat
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I dunno - 08 was pretty bad for the Republicans. Plus McCain's vote tally rounds up to 46.

I think the GOP would stand more to lose in an election following a disastrous two-term Republican president, versus one following an okay two-term Democratic president. However Trump's personality certainly factors into that.


Yeah sure. I think I'd rather have Klobuchar though because Clinton-Klobuchar has a nice ring to it.

And Ellison gets her Senate seat
Click to expand...

I would love a Clinton-Klobuchar ticket.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I dunno - 08 was pretty bad for the Republicans. Plus McCain's vote tally rounds up to 46.

I think the GOP would stand more to lose in an election following a disastrous two-term Republican president, versus one following an okay two-term Democratic president. However Trump's personality certainly factors into that.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't expect it to be worse for Trump, but if we're talking absolute floors I believe there is a possibility for Trump's disastrous favorables to remain that way and even be compounded by some misstep that would put him in a worse spot than 45%.
 
G

gaugebozo

Member
I don't think the College Jeopardy! contestants got anything right in the "Election Terms" category. It's not "voting polls," it's exit polls. :-/
 
C

ctothej

Member
Clinton's Iowa shares on Predictit are tanking... Is everyone getting the vibe that Dem turnout is higher than pollsters expected?
 
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