PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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RastaMentality said:
Already seeing dems on Twitter with the anyone but trump narrative... Seems like people will be apathetic if he isn't on the ticket.
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To finish third in Iowa, Rubio had to declare that he would annul all same sex marriages as president, Rubio had to declare that would ban all abortions (even for rape victims) as president, and Rubio had to say that he supported Christian Sharia Law... I'm pretty sure there will be good turnout against Rubio if he beats Trump and Cruz.
 
tmarg said:
I don't get all the Trump's finished talk. We all knew Iowa was filled with evangelicals who would lean Cruz, and Trump is going to do better in southern states.
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its a game of momentum and expectations. he was supposed to steamroll everybody with the exception of cruz.

also it confirms that the polls were "wrong"... trump campaign could very well be a paper tiger. we'll know soon enough in NH and SC
 
GnawtyDog said:
Vs. Bernie in general? I'll probably emigrate to Europe in anticipation for defeat. A Rep. in the presidency with both the Senate and the House. It's the ultimate liberal betrayal for America.
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We can talk about it and you can freak about it if and when it becomes a reality of even a likely scenario.
It's not at this moment, like at all.
And even if you disagree with me about the likelihood of that scenario, tonight's results didn't change things too much one way or another, for real, this is the Iowa caucus, huckabee won that shit.

p.s.
If your biggest concern is Bernie winning the nomination, if anything, tonight made it harder for him to do so since I think there is non negligible number of democratic voters who are really afraid of Rubio.
 
PBY said:
It's the Trump loss combined with the Rubio surge and Jen no show.
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Trump/Cruz still have more than 50%, and I don't see a big move from either of those camps to the establishment. And the majority of the votes from candidates who might drop out are likely headed to outsider candidates as well. Carson's 9% is almost as big as the rest of the field combined, those voters aren't jumping to Rubio.
 
I got the text I didn't want to get tonight. IE the "wow Biden must be kicking himself right now!" text from a Biden supporter. I don't think Biden could have beaten Hillary largely because if he ran he would have entered the race too late. But if he had got in early enough to pouch Obama people who flocked to Hillary? Sure maybe he could have won in that scenario.
 
This is OK for now. Going into NH; the question becomes can Rubio somehow pass Trump.

If Rubio beats Trump in NH (and makes up that crazy deficit) - Trump is probably out of it. At which point, it becomes Rubio vs Cruz (and Rubio will wreck Cruz).

Clinton winning Iowa more or less seals it for her barring anything crazy happening, though. This was a state Bernie really, really needed.
 
Hillary winning or tying one of the whitest states seems to be a pretty good result. Outside of NH, she'll have a pretty easy time in the states coming up unless black people finally start feeling the bern.
 
Cybit said:
This is OK for now. Going into NH; the question becomes can Rubio somehow pass Trump.

If Rubio beats Trump in NH (and makes up that crazy deficit) - Trump is probably out of it. At which point, it becomes Rubio vs Cruz (and Rubio will wreck Cruz).

Clinton winning Iowa more or less seals it for her barring anything crazy happening, though. This was a state Bernie really, really needed.
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Feel like a Rubio NH win is coming
 
I don't know if it is good or bad that there's 8 days until NH. If it were tomorrow, would momentum carry more directly or less?
 
Chichikov said:
We can talk about it and you can freak about it if and when it becomes a reality of even a likely scenario.
It's not at this moment, like at all.
And even if you disagree with me about the likelihood of that scenario, tonight's results didn't change things too much one way or another, for real, this is the Iowa caucus, huckabee won that shit.

p.s.
If your biggest concern is Bernie winning the nomination, if anything, tonight made it harder for him to do so since I think there is non negligible number of democratic voters who are really afraid of Rubio.
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There is no freaking out but nothing that happened today made the likelihood of Trump or Cruz steamrolling the GOP nomination any more likely. If anything, it makes Rubio (the establishment dream) a very plausible GOP nominee. Sure there is the idea that Trump's camp can suck up Cruz's votes and vice versa just as the establishment can rally and consolidate on Rubio vs. Cruz or Trump. In such a scenario, I'll lean GOP establishment. Not to mention, the GOP establishment will consolidate much much faster on Rubio than Trump or Cruz's camp consolidating. The establishment candidates not named Rubio are all reeling, - they'll drop slowly but surely and consolidate on Rubio. Cruz nor Trump are dropping out anytime soon.

Hillary will likely be the nominee but nothing is ever on stone. Bernie is an absolute bust vs. Rubio, that I can guarantee.
 
Yep. Bernie only became a serious candidate with a significant win. A narrow loss here does nothing but allow him to stay in longer.
 
Teggy said:
Spread just jumped back up a lot.
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yeah, I saw that. must have been a big precinct reporting in. I'm confident saying that hillary has it at this point.

Can't say on the GOP side (between trump/rubio) because the GOP tracker hasn't loaded for me for like 20 minutes now
 
Cybit said:
Clinton winning Iowa more or less seals it for her barring anything crazy happening, though. This was a state Bernie really, really needed.
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I dunno man, a statistical tie at least lets Sanders say that he's not only a Northeast liberal. The bigger problem for Clinton is that she apparently got crushed in the 30 - 39 year old age group. She can win without under 30's but Sanders message clearly has a bigger audience than expected and Clinton needs to address that.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
I got the text I didn't want to get tonight. IE the "wow Biden must be kicking himself right now!" text from a Biden supporter. I don't think Biden could have beaten Hillary largely because if he ran he would have entered the race too late. But if he had got in early enough to pouch Obama people who flocked to Hillary? Sure maybe he could have won in that scenario.
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Isn't Biden largely to the right of Hillary's current positions ? Or are we talking about a 3 way race ? I mean that could very well have ended up splitting the pragmatist vote and handing Sanders the nomination. Or is the theory that some of Sanders support is actually "anyone but Hillary" ? Is there really enough of that vote to make up for splitting the moderate vote ?
 
She has to win by a point, I think. Then she can claim a real win even if, let's be honest, she underperformed.
 
Y2Kev said:
I don't know if it is good or bad that there's 8 days until NH. If it were tomorrow, would momentum carry more directly or less?
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Trump will propose putting Muslims in internment camps tomorrow and will get Fuckabee's endorsement the day after, the Rubio surge will have been forgotten about almost instantly.
 
Cesare Borgia said:
I got the text I didn't want to get tonight. IE the "wow Biden must be kicking himself right now!" text from a Biden supporter. I don't think Biden could have beaten Hillary largely because if he ran he would have entered the race too late. But if he had got in early enough to pouch Obama people who flocked to Hillary? Sure maybe he could have won in that scenario.
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Meh, the crap coming out of the Biden camp during the "teasing" period right before he officially said he wasn't going to run made him an untenable candidate. I don't think anyone on the Dem side - establishment or far left progressive - would be interested in a candidate that's fine with talking about how friendly he is with Republicans in Congress.
 
PBY said:
Feel like a Rubio NH win is coming
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If Rubio wins NH; you might be able to call the GOP primary over.

I do not like the Rubio / Clinton matchup. Way, way too close. Especially if he goes Condi Rice / Nikki Haley or someone young & non-white (or a young white female) as a VP pick. All the taunting the Dems have done about demographic advantage will come back to haunt them; especially if Rubio is able to pivot back to the middle about immigration (which he may be able to in a short-term attention span campaign like this one has been turning out to be).

Roland_Gunner said:
I dunno man, a statistical tie at least lets Sanders say that he's not only a Northeast liberal. The bigger problem for Clinton is that she apparently got crushed in the 30 - 39 year old age group. She can win without under 30's but Sanders message clearly has a bigger audience than expected and Clinton needs to address that.
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She has a big card yet to play in this - the '04 election. She's going to point out what happened the last time people felt unenthusiastic, and the consequences (especially for SCOTUS). Lot of 30-39 year old liberals feel pretty stupid about not paying attention during '04; and the consequences thereafter. Plus, she will get the Warren endorsement (but do not go for her as VP against Rubio, the asskicking Rubio will lay out will be real at that point) as soon as Sanders drops out.
 
uobDZCO.png


The photo + headline combination here is amazing.

This is the face of a winner.
 
East Lake said:
Fox has been against Trump since the beginning, this is business as usual.
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Hannity and O'Reilly were sucking up to Trump big time, especially Hannity. Nobody on that network outside of Meghan Kelly would call out Trump on his bullshit.

Everybody from Steve Hayes to Laura Ingram thought Trump would win.
 
RT @mviser: Trump supporters are totally shocked. One woman tearfully says, “It’s just heartbreaking. He really wanted to Make America Great Again."
 
GnawtyDog said:
There is no freaking out but nothing that happened today made the likelihood of Trump or Cruz steamrolling the GOP nomination any more likely. If anything, it makes Rubio (the establishment dream) a very plausible GOP nominee. Sure there is the idea that Trump's camp can suck up Cruz's votes and vice versa just as the establishment can rally and consolidate on Rubio vs. Cruz or Trump. In such a scenario, I'll lean GOP establishment.
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The problem with this logic is that the establishment already has consolidated on Rubio, that's why he did so well tonight. Doing so was good enough to earn them 3rd place.
 
Cybit said:
If Rubio wins NH; you might be able to call the GOP primary over.

I do not like the Rubio / Clinton matchup. Way, way too close. Especially if he goes Condi Rice / Nikki Haley or someone young & non-white (or a young white female) as a VP pick. All the taunting the Dems have done about demographic advantage will come back to haunt them; especially if Rubio is able to pivot back to the middle about immigration (which he may be able to in a short-term attention span campaign like this one has been turning out to be).
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I'm beyond scared

I don't think people are as concerned as they should be. Hillary is great - but old, white establishment candidate vs young Latino is scary shit.
 
Y2Kev said:
She has to win by a point, I think. Then she can claim a real win even if, let's be honest, she underperformed.
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Yeah looks like that probably happen if she wins. Probably a lot of young did showed up, but by judging by some of the maps her support was spread out more, so I guess this means she got more delegates for the primary.
 
GnawtyDog said:
There is no freaking out but nothing that happened today made the likelihood of Trump or Cruz steamrolling the GOP nomination any more likely. If anything, it makes Rubio (the establishment dream) a very plausible GOP nominee. Sure there is the idea that Trump's camp can suck up Cruz's votes and vice versa just as the establishment can rally and consolidate on Rubio vs. Cruz or Trump. In such a scenario, I'll lean GOP establishment.

Hillary will likely be the nominee but nothing is ever on stone. Bernie is an absolute bust vs. Rubio, that I can guarantee.
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The Iowa caucus doesn't matter that much.
The establishment was always going to coalesce around Rubio, he has the same problem he always had -
He's a shit campaigner and he staked a couple of positions which are problematic with the large part of the Republican primary voters.

This was true before tonight and true after tonight.

p.s.
While I definitely think that Clinton is more likely to win against Rubio than Sanders (I generally think that barring Wall Street blowing up the economy this fall, a huge terror attack or getting caught having sex with a black man, Clinton is the next president) I have no idea why you think that Rubio crushing Sanders is a forgone conclusion.
It's very hard to predict things so far out, but he's consistently beating him in head to head poll.
Yeah, it's hard to imagine America electing something with anything that even rhyme with socialism in their platform, but could you have imagine the US voting for a black guy?
 
tmarg said:
The problem with this logic is that the establishment already has consolidated on Rubio, that's why he did so well tonight. Doing so was good enough to earn them 3rd place.
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There are small players out there still soaking up votes. Christie, Bush etc... Trump and Cruz will not drop out soon (they're in for the long haul). Rubio will soak votes while Trump and Cruz split the crazy vote. Not to mention, states that lean establishment will sooner or later vote. Iowa and New Hampshire are crazy town.
 
GnawtyDog said:
There are small players out there still soaking up votes. Christie, Bush etc... Trump and Cruz will not drop out soon (they're in for the long haul). Rubio will soak votes while Trump and Cruz split the crazy vote.
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Carson's crazy took up more votes than all non-Rubio establishment candidates combined tonight though.
 
GnawtyDog said:
There are small players out there still soaking up votes. Christie, Bush etc... Trump and Cruz will not drop out soon (they're in for the long haul). Rubio will soak votes while Trump and Cruz split the crazy vote.
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Carson is sitting on more crazy votes than all of the outstanding establishment votes available to Rubio combined.
 
How much damage will President Rubio do with his party's incredible numbers in Congress, dominance of the states, and control of the Supreme Court, I wonder?

The scariest thing about a Republican victory is that they can do whatever the fuck they want for at least two years, with no checks.
 
QuiteWhittle said:
How much damage will President Rubio do with his party's incredible numbers in Congress, dominance of the states, and control of the Supreme Court, I wonder?
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Massive.

Cuban relations - what about an invasion?
Obamacare? Modified.
Dodd-Frank? Amended to hell.
Iranian deal? ???
The list goes on...
 
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