• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

Status
Not open for further replies.
I Iliterally was going to post this. He'd be such a good surrogate for colleges and getting the youth vote out

Everyone is going to come together on the Dem side regardless of the candidate. Obama is already basically stumping for the general.

Sanders will hopefully push Hilary to make campaign finance reform a key part of her platform (along with push her minimum wage figure upward) if he loses.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
If both of these statements are true then the Republicans would have a very serious risk of losing the white working class. If Trump has shown anything its that those votes aren't locked down. Maintaining their base and getting minority votes is much, much more complex that what you're laying out.

This is true. The reason I think it is easier for the GOP to pull this off over the Democrats currently is because the GOP has an identity of falling into line behind unpalatable candidates in presidential elections so far; even post Tea Party rise in 2010. Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

Now, the question is laid out - did Trump permanently sever the unholy alliance that makes up the modern GOP and break that identity? The returns for Rubio don't make me believe that...yet.
 

Diablos

Member
I am confused and not sure what to make of this.

Funny how 3 > 1 > 2 apparently.

Look, someone establishment had to win third and it had to be Rubio. Who else would it be, Bush? Get out.

Who is looking to win NH? RCP has Trump up 21 points or something right? Maybe that changes after tonight...
 
Rubio comes in fucking 3rd in Iowa and everyone in here starts wringing their hands and shitting their pants. Being constantly scared of losing is tiresome.
 
I am confused and not sure what to make of this.

Funny how 3 > 1 > 2 apparently.

Look, someone establishment had to win third and it had to be Rubio. Who else would it be, Bush? Get out.

Who is looking to win NH? RCP has Trump up 21 points or something right? Maybe that changes after tonight...

unless something magical happens in 7 days, Trump and Sanders will crush NH
 
They got the president. If Obama gets fully involved in the campaign - I think he will probably turn the tide himself. The message of hope is starting to re-resonate with a lot of people (kicked off by the hyper smart SotU this year) - and if he gets out fully on the trail - I don't think even a fully ready Rubio + RNC can stop him. But I don't know for sure how hardcore he will be campaigning. (He might have to, you know, do his job or something) :D

There's a reason Castro is being talked up as a potential VP pick (this is why I think going with Warren would be disastrous for Clinton)

But the GOP is gonna go "Hey, are any of those people in leadership? Got any governors? Anyone who has responsibility?" The part people aren't fully getting I think is this: you don't need to get the majority of latinos or blacks or asians to vote you. You're talking 10% (on an absolute scale, not relative) more on each one of those, and, bam, GOP win. If black voter turnout drops to non Obama levels? Even less.

I don't think Cruz can get that; I don't think any of the candidates besides Rubio (establishment backing, good looking, young, etc) and Trump (because I am never counting him out after watching the last few months) have a chance against Clinton. But people are really, really counting the GOP out, even though, by all historic measures, we're primed for a GOP president.

People of Color aren't going to be fooled by the "hey, we have a black/Asian/Hispanic" friend defense of the GOP. Especially 10% of them. As long as Rubio has to hold the line on the current GOP position on immigration and keep on playing to the hardcore base on abortion, there goes the Hispanic vote and the largely secular Asian vote. Then, the black vote ain't going to be like, "oh they've got Tim Scott? That totally makes up for decades of acting like we're all welfare queens and thugs!"

Colin Powell would affect the black vote. Ben Carson ain't affecting shit.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Rubio comes in fucking 3rd in Iowa and everyone in here starts wringing their hands and shitting their pants. Being constantly scared of losing is tiresome.

We all still have nightmares about GWB from 2000 and 2004. (and the fact that Daddy Bush would have crushed Clinton if not for Perot)
 

benjipwns

Banned
Now, the question is laid out - did Trump permanently sever the unholy alliance that makes up the modern GOP and break that identity? The returns for Rubio don't make me believe that...yet.
Trump didn't do it, he and Cruz are basically the endgame of the Tea Party slamming into The Trinity over and over.

It's kinda sad Occupy never committed itself to anything political. Though at the same time they're probably accomplishing more in their current form providing aid and charity. So that's positive.
 
This is true. The reason I think it is easier for the GOP to pull this off over the Democrats currently is because the GOP has an identity of falling into line behind unpalatable candidates in presidential elections so far; even post Tea Party rise in 2010. Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

Now, the question is laid out - did Trump permanently sever the unholy alliance that makes up the modern GOP and break that identity? The returns for Rubio don't make me believe that...yet.

We'll find out over the next 10 months but it certainly appeared that the old "fall in line" rule was already coming apart back in 2012. Voters had to be dragged kicking and screaming into nominating Romney, and then didn't show up with the same enthusiasm as Dem voters.

Even with this Rubio result, Trump and Cruz, who are both hated by the establishment, still got over 50% of the vote. Its better than expected but still a very small win for the system.
 

benjipwns

Banned
We all still have nightmares about GWB from 2000 and 2004. (and the fact that Daddy Bush would have crushed Clinton if not for Perot)

Political Science research indicated that Clinton wins without Perot.
Perot not dropping out claiming the Republicans were going to sabotage his daughters wedding on the eve of the Democratic convention is a top favorite political what if.

Perot was leading in the poll ~36-32-25 in June.

He dropped out and Clinton surged in the head-to-heads against Bush, which had been tied/lean-Bush.

John Anderson in 1980 is another. Carter's refusal to debate with him involved did something to boost Reagan.

Huh.

That's kinda cool! :) I always figured Perot being to the right of Bush took most of Bush's votes away.
Perot wasn't to the "right" of Bush. Pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-universal health care, pro-publicly funded campaigns, pro-affirmative action.
 

pigeon

Banned
Lets say Rubio wins and they grab Haley as VP pick; while Clinton grabs Warren (or O'Malley).

They're gonna walk out with Rubio, Haley, Jindal, and maybe even bust out Bush's kid (half-mexican and half caucasian) and maybe even Carson. They're gonna put a picture up of Clinton, Sanders, Warren, and O'Malley - and just go "One of these groups likes to talk about race and gender representation. One of these groups actually has representation. The difference is on this stage, right now."

Identity beats Reason. One of these days, the Dems (except Obama, who already did) will figure this out.

I mean, the problem with this plan is that people of color aren't stupid.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
We'll find out over the next 10 months but it certainly appeared that the old "fall in line" rule was already coming apart back in 2012. Voters had to be dragged kicking and screaming into nominating Romney, and then didn't show up with the same enthusiasm as Dem voters.

Even with this Rubio result, Trump and Cruz, who are both hated by the establishment, still got over 50% of the vote. Its better than expected but still a very small win for the system.

My question is whether Obama winning in 2012 did to the GOP what GWB winning in 2004 did to the Dems - get everyone to work together to get whoever the hell they nominated the presidency no matter what.

It's gonna be interesting, that's for sure. :)
 
We all still have nightmares about GWB from 2000 and 2004. (and the fact that Daddy Bush would have crushed Clinton if not for Perot)

Political Science research indicated that Clinton wins without Perot.
Yep, Perot drew equally from Bush and Clinton, or at least enough to not shift the Electoral College around.

And we constantly talk about demographic shifts and how that should favor Democrats. But then apparently the Latinos are as brain-dead as moths to flames if another Latino is dangled in front of them? Give them some fucking credit.

Would Rubio make it harder than Trump or Cruz? Most likely but let's show a little confidence, tired of all the doomsaying and diablosing.
 
One of the weirdest things was that Nader drew 60% from Gore voters and 40% from Dubya voters... I have no idea why that distribution was so close. Nader's candidacy wouldn't have had any negative effect on the race... Except for the fact that Florida was 48.85 to 48.84 :(
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Lets say Rubio wins and they grab Haley as VP pick; while Clinton grabs Warren (or O'Malley).

They're gonna walk out with Rubio, Haley, Jindal, and maybe even bust out Bush's kid (half-mexican and half caucasian) and maybe even Carson. They're gonna put a picture up of Clinton, Sanders, Warren, and O'Malley - and just go "One of these groups likes to talk about race and gender representation. One of these groups actually has representation. The difference is on this stage, right now."

Identity beats Reason. One of these days, the Dems (except Obama, who already did) will figure this out.
if you believe the bullshit that minorities only vote based on skin color. They have shown frequently this isn't the case. If it were so easy just elect Carson and put Rubio VP. Easy win right?!
 
if you believe the bullshit that minorities only vote based on skin color. They have shown frequently this isn't the case. If it were so easy just elect Carson and put Rubio VP. Easy win right?!

Carson was dominating the GE polls for months before he started talking about Egyptian grain silos!
 
Polk County has been stuck at 88% for like an hour and a fucking half it seems like... I wonder if they want to drag out the drama by having Hillary's best county finish last, lol.

This reminds me of the Oregon governor election where it looked for sure the Republican candidate was going to eek out a victory at like 98% of the vote in. Thing was those 2% of locations were in urban Seattle and counting took forever because that's where all the people are. Those last precincts gave Kitzhaber the win.

Which is a long of saying that urban district have lots of votes that take time to count.
 
One of the weirdest things was that Nader drew 60% from Gore voters and 40% from Dubya voters... I have no idea why that distribution was so close. Nader's candidacy wouldn't have had any negative effect on the race... Except for the fact that Florida was 48.85 to 48.84 :(

it shouldn't have had any negative effect on the race, except for that combination of gore picking friggin' lieberman, an illegal voter purge (katherine harris sends her regards), and gore apparently refusing to campaign in new hampshire
 
This reminds me of the Oregon governor election where it looked for sure the Republican candidate was going to eek out a victory at like 98% of the vote in. Thing was those 2% of locations were in urban Seattle and counting took forever because that's where all the people are. Those last precincts gave Kitzhaber the win.

Which is a long of saying that urban district have lots of votes that take time to count.

Seattle affected the Oregon governor election? that's news
 
If Bernie comes out as an atheist before the Utah caucus, I will vote for him so identity is a little bit important for sure... But they need to actually represent that identity.

I'm not voting for Trump over Hillary because Trump is non-religious and Hillary is super religious.
 

Hilbert

Deep into his 30th decade
This reminds me of the Oregon governor election where it looked for sure the Republican candidate was going to eek out a victory at like 98% of the vote in. Thing was those 2% of locations were in urban Seattle and counting took forever because that's where all the people are. Those last precincts gave Kitzhaber the win.

Which is a long of saying that urban district have lots of votes that take time to count.
I assume you mean Portland, not seattle?

(Eastcoasters, I swear...)
 

Maengun1

Member
Cruz won? Gross. Iowa Republicans...consistently awful. And Rubio doing "unexpectedly well" is bad news too.

Can't say I'm happy about the virtual tie with Hillary and Bernie either. I'm supporting Hill here, but either way a finish this close is only going to get the the conspiracy theorists and vitriol going more than ever. Bleh.
 

benjipwns

Banned
One of the weirdest things was that Nader drew 60% from Gore voters and 40% from Dubya voters... I have no idea why that distribution was so close. Nader's candidacy wouldn't have had any negative effect on the race... Except for the fact that Florida was 48.85 to 48.84 :(

it shouldn't have had any negative effect on the race, except for that combination of gore picking friggin' lieberman, an illegal voter purge (katherine harris sends her regards), and gore apparently refusing to campaign in new hampshire

Buchanan also got 0.29% in Florida.

Gore lost Tennessee. If he had won that or New Hampshire he would have won without Florida.

New Mexico (won by 366 votes) was the actual closet state by number of votes. Nader got 3.6% there.
 
If Bernie comes out as an atheist before the Utah caucus, I will vote for him so identity is a little bit important for sure... But they need to actually represent that identity.

I'm not voting for Trump over Hillary because Trump is non-religious and Hillary is super religious.
Honest question, is Hillary super religious? I guess I never see it get mentioned because it is much less important on the Dem side but am genuinely curious where she is on this.
 

Sianos

Member
Yeah, I mean who else was going to win third among the Republican field?

All this shows is the establishment vote coalescing around one candidate - which is not ideal, I would have preferred the dilution of their votes to continue for longer - while the radical vote is still split between Trump, Cruz, and Carson.

I still expect a Trump nomination, he'll just ratchet up the xenophobia on a new target and enjoy a swelling of support as usual.
 
Right to Rise has to be one of the biggest failures in terms of buying votes maybe in the history of time.

They spent $15 million in Iowa attacking Rubio and promoting Jeb and Jeb got 3% while Rubio got 23%
 
Honest question, is Hillary super religious? I guess I never see it get mentioned because it is much less important on the Dem side but am genuinely curious where she is on this.
There was a Times article on it. She attends a Bible study group, she was raised in a Methodist family, she quotes verses off the cuff. She's surprisingly religious. I think polling shows that most people think she's either not religious or not very.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
If the remaining precincts go the same way as the average for their county, Sanders wins 868-866.
 
Right to Rise has to be one of the biggest failures in terms of buying votes maybe in the history of time.

They spent like $40 million in Iowa attacking Rubio and promoting Jeb and Jeb got 3% while Rubio got 23%
Jebs failure here has me wondering if I should even be all that bothered by Citizens United lol. Most money spent overall and only gets 3% in Iowa.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Yep, Perot drew equally from Bush and Clinton, or at least enough to not shift the Electoral College around.

And we constantly talk about demographic shifts and how that should favor Democrats. But then apparently the Latinos are as brain-dead as moths to flames if another Latino is dangled in front of them? Give them some fucking credit.

Would Rubio make it harder than Trump or Cruz? Most likely but let's show a little confidence, tired of all the doomsaying and diablosing.

I will be relaxed and confident after we win, thank you very much. :p

if you believe the bullshit that minorities only vote based on skin color. They have shown frequently this isn't the case. If it were so easy just elect Carson and put Rubio VP. Easy win right?!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-rubio-or-bust-for-republicans-who-want-to-win/

Currently, Rubio is losing to Clinton by 34 points for the Latino vote, during probably the worst time for him (having to try to veer right of Trump and Cruz on immigration). But, as noted...

It’s hard to imagine Clinton matching the share of Latino voters that Obama won in 2012, 71 percent, against a Spanish-speaking son of immigrants who supported a bipartisan immigration reform bill.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Play with the numbers yourselves. We're talking 5-10% of the Latino vote. That's it. Add in a drop with black voters from Obama to Clinton (which I feel is plausible) and lower turnout (going back to historical levels as opposed to Obama turnout, as well as potential anger towards Clinton polices in the 90s)...and there goes your electoral college victory.

It's not whether Rubio wins the Latino vote. Its whether he can not lose it 71-29, but instead, 65-35. They just have not get their asses completely kicked, basically. Now, mind you, if a long engagement happens with Trump and Cruz and Rubio, and Rubio has to keep veering more and more to the right on immigration, that gap might end up at Obama levels. (What happened to McCain and Romney, in many senses). But this is off the assumption that Rubio takes NH and goes from there. If Trump takes NH dominantly, the GOP I think might flat out tear itself apart.

Some background reading on where I am coming from

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/

HRC's religious, she just doesn't like to come across as imposing upon others, which is something I appreciate fwiw.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Jebs failure here has me wondering if I should even be all that bothered by Citizens United lol. Most money spent overall and only gets 3% in Iowa.
Money has never won elections by itself. Ask Senator Huffington and Senator McMahon.

Every single form of research I've seen shows extremely diminishing returns with each dollar spent past establishing escape velocity name recognition.

Most of the $2 billion spent in 2012 was simply waste.
 
Kasich needs to go hard in the paint in NH. Christie needs to just interchange "Marco Rubio" every time he once to say "Hillary Rodham Clinton" at the next debate.
 
Kasich needs to go hard in the paint in NH. Christie needs to just interchange "Marco Rubio" every time he once to say "Hillary Rodham Clinton" at the next debate.

I wonder if Christie will fall to true scumbag tier and start saying shit like "Rafael Edward Cruz over here just wants to blow up the government."
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
How in the fucking world is the electoral system so bad in this country? Four hours after old ladies count teenagers screaming fuck at each other in gyms...we still don't even know what happened.
And on top of that, the Microsoft App was failing in some places! I know technology isn't perfect (especially working with it as a volunteer), but you would think by now these types of applications would be more reliable.
Money has never won elections by itself. Ask Senator Huffington and Senator McMahon.

Every single form of research I've seen shows extremely diminishing returns with each dollar spent past establishing escape velocity name recognition.

Most of the $2 billion spent in 2012 was simply waste.
I agree there are likely diminishing returns, but it's still important to remember 91% of the time the better-financed candidate wins.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom