ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
The Economist seems amused at Cruz winning Iowa:
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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Futurematic
Member
Nixon vs Humphry, no? Been a while since I read the books but Nixon's cash advantage was Yuge.
disastermouse
Banned
I don't know what a C-SPAN user video is or if this is legitimate. I'm at work, so I can't even watch. Polk county vote fraud allegation for Hillary.
Normal Iowa Caucus stuff? Forgive me if this is bullshit.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4578575/clinton-voter-fraud-polk-county-iowa-caucus
Normal Iowa Caucus stuff? Forgive me if this is bullshit.
http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4578575/clinton-voter-fraud-polk-county-iowa-caucus
JohnTinker
Limbaugh Parrot
RT @WPJohnWagner: Sanders's camp says that the Iowa Democratic Party has informed the campaigns that the caucus results from 90 precincts are missing.
https://twitter.com/WPJohnWagner/status/694397961757810688
https://twitter.com/WPJohnWagner/status/694397961757810688
Retromelon
Member
The margin of that election was razor thin and came after 8 years of democrat presidents and a swiftly souring war, as well as the shitstorm that was the 1968 democrat convention
It's a user video, there's literally no journalistic oversight when it comes to anything about it. Unless a real source confirms the title consider it crap.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's good that Iowa still has non-electronic voting.
benjipwns
Banned
I'd say the disintegration of the Democratic Party had a larger impact, though it wasn't really seen until 1972 as Humphrey was able to rally enough to make that one a nail-biter.
The most important part of that article?
I wish they had accounted for that, AND included primary races in the chart.
Rafa=FedKilla
Banned
I know most don't agree with me, but I think this is still a good result for Trump. It shows he has tangible support, that was close to the polling data. Yes, I know he was leading in the last eight polls, but caucusing and Iowa and all that. The more troubling thing is Marco Rubio's strong showing. Christie only has a million on hand, so he'll drop out after NH. Kasich is poised for a strong showing in NH, so I could see him sticking around for a bit. Jeb, I have no idea if this guy is going to pack it in after NH or what. Right to Rise still has money, but not much coming in recently. We could soon see the resurgence of the hashtag #whyistayed if Jeb keeps trucking.
Macho Madness
Member
Maddow is parroting this too.
JohnTinker
Limbaugh Parrot
RT @SalenaZitoTrib: Iowa Democrat Party huge screw-up 90 precinct results to be re-created because inadequately staffed -- Clinton & Sanders asked to help stage
3 different D precincts rewarded with a coin flip.
Also:
RT @davidaxelrod: It's not clear that we'll ever know with absolute certainty who actually finished 1st among Ds in Iowa, and not sure it matters. #iacaucus
Seriously?
3 different D precincts rewarded with a coin flip.
Also:
RT @davidaxelrod: It's not clear that we'll ever know with absolute certainty who actually finished 1st among Ds in Iowa, and not sure it matters. #iacaucus
Seriously?
More Dems voted in SC primary than GOP did in 2008. That sure helped.
benjipwns
Banned
Unless Sanders copies Ron Paul and demands that his delegates get the chance to vote rather than releasing them. (Or Kucinich who did the same of Kerry in 2004.)
There won't be anything but Hillary delegates at the convention anyway.
There won't be anything but Hillary delegates at the convention anyway.
I'd give him around a 35% chance.
shinra-bansho
Member
I'd be more concerned about Rubio really.
tbf tho that's what happens in literal ties(after a recount) in a lot of states.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Can you do virtual flips of Bitcoins? Should have used a Bitcoin if you can.
benjipwns
Banned
https://www.random.org/coins/
Bernie's people should have demanded an odd number of flips of the Swedish Krona.
Bernie's people should have demanded an odd number of flips of the Swedish Krona.
I flipped a euro. Not sure if I got heads or tails but I feel as if I lost either way.
That's about 35% more than I'm comfortable with.
I'm honestly not all that concerned about Rubio. I feel as long as Trump and Cruz stay in, Rubio won't have much of a shot of winning anything. But I figured Trump would lead in this, not come in second. Trump's absurdity makes me laugh, but a chance of President Cruz scares the hell outta me. I also think Trump would probably be easier to beat than Cruz in the general, but I don't know how accurate that is.
shinra-bansho
Member
Demographically, I think a state like IA with it's heavy religious base probably advantages and disadvantages Cruz and Rubio respectively. So Rubio's finishing within a percent or so of Trump makes him a pretty legitimate contender I think. The GOP leadership will put pressure on the turtle and the fat man and the whiner to gtfo, so he can consolidate that voting bloc.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
They're called crowns, not Krona. Real Bernie supporters know this!
I have a Swedish friend.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Kasich and Christie combined for like 3% tonight. That's not much more than the 3% Trump will get from Huckabee and Santorum.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Bernie has now lost 7 of 7 coin flips.
lol.
lol.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Supply Side Jesus is real.
benjipwns
Banned
WALL STREET, THE FED, AND THE TREASURY ARE ALWAYS RIGGING THE GAME
Dominican Power
Member
How many states do you have to win be the nominee?
shinra-bansho
Member
In NH aggregate polling the Kasich, Christie, Bush vote going to Rubio would see him ahead of or tied with Trump. We're over IA now.
This is before Trump became a big ol' loser.
I suppose that's possible. But couldn't states without such a heavy religious base benefit Trump as well in that scenario?
ugaboga232
Member
Why didnt they just do one coin toss at the end and give it 4 to 3 to the winner? I dont really know all the nitty gritty details on how they get to delegates. Oh well, Im gonna assume clinton won by a hair, so adam should be ok tmrw.
benjipwns
Banned
Theoretically, zero.
It was seven flips at seven different locations I assume.
neurosisxeno
Member
It's been calculated out. Theoretically you can win the Presidency with something like 30% of the vote. It's insanely unlikely, but it could happen. When it comes to nominations, if you got second in every state during a 3 way race where the other 2 traded serious blows you could squeak by with a win--but I think the few winner take all states make it confusing.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think benji is referring to a brokered convention.
Or possibly that a democratic process isn't actually required to select the leaders of the GOP and Democratic Party? It's just something they do.
Or possibly that a democratic process isn't actually required to select the leaders of the GOP and Democratic Party? It's just something they do.
neurosisxeno
Member
Oh I forgot about that. Has someone ever really won without going through the election process? I know they used it as a plot device on The West Wing but I figured that was an absurd extreme to represent how weird/stressful the system can be.
benjipwns
Banned
No, those are all ways to do it. I don't know if you guys remember but in 2008 there was a huge fear in the Obama camp initially that Hillary would get enough superdelegates that even if he won every state, he'd lose since they control the balance.
Then he started getting endorsements, especially after Ted Kennedy, and the likelihood of a superdelegate landslide for a candidate to change the race became unlikely.
Both parties do enough PR votes and have enough non-elected delegates that you could win any three-way or more race.
For example, the GOP is doing all PR through March 1st. Rubio could finish third in all of them and come away with the most delegates by far as long as the winners and the size of their victories are different in each state.
Adlai Stevenson tried it and succeeded in 1952, but there were only a handful of primaries that actually awarded delegates, the rest were beauty contests.
Then he started getting endorsements, especially after Ted Kennedy, and the likelihood of a superdelegate landslide for a candidate to change the race became unlikely.
Both parties do enough PR votes and have enough non-elected delegates that you could win any three-way or more race.
For example, the GOP is doing all PR through March 1st. Rubio could finish third in all of them and come away with the most delegates by far as long as the winners and the size of their victories are different in each state.
Not since the McGovern Reforms created the modern primary.
Adlai Stevenson tried it and succeeded in 1952, but there were only a handful of primaries that actually awarded delegates, the rest were beauty contests.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ehh, this is one of the whitest states in America. Drawing even is not a good result for him unless it gets black people to start voting for him more.
Pennyghazi!
Sorry.
Yeah, that should be a bannable post.
I'll take my punishment now.
vicissitudes
Banned
I'm still trying to understand what happened. I was sure at least Trump or Sanders would pull off a win tonight.
Polls were looking great for both up to right before the election. Trump was leading by 5 points in entrance polls. But guess what? Voters got cold feet. When it mattered the most, they decided they didn't want change after all. They were happy settling for the status quo as America crashes straight into the sea.
But it's okay. All Iowans have done tonight is expose themselves for the cowards that they are. I'm done paying attention to this state, and after this election cycle so will the rest of America. Huckabee, Santorum, and now Cruz. What a joke. Iowa is pregame season, it doesn't matter. New Hampshire is the season opener. Just wait until February 9th. I'm predicting a huge blowout for both Trump and Sanders. We just lured the establishment into a false sense of security, and New Hampshire will deliver the knockout punch.
Polls were looking great for both up to right before the election. Trump was leading by 5 points in entrance polls. But guess what? Voters got cold feet. When it mattered the most, they decided they didn't want change after all. They were happy settling for the status quo as America crashes straight into the sea.
But it's okay. All Iowans have done tonight is expose themselves for the cowards that they are. I'm done paying attention to this state, and after this election cycle so will the rest of America. Huckabee, Santorum, and now Cruz. What a joke. Iowa is pregame season, it doesn't matter. New Hampshire is the season opener. Just wait until February 9th. I'm predicting a huge blowout for both Trump and Sanders. We just lured the establishment into a false sense of security, and New Hampshire will deliver the knockout punch.
ok...
benjipwns
Banned
Carter actually is the one who started the whole Iowa fad btw. The 1976 field (the first real race under the modern primary system) had no real frontrunner, Udall was sorta it, but Carter's team examined the "new" primary process and built around a strategy of winning early, getting name recognition (he was on What's My Line? and the panel couldn't guess he was Governor of Georgia) and using that to build the framework of a national primary campaign from.
Traditionally, NH was the first big one, but Iowa was first under the new system by a month. Everyone else was waiting for NH and forward. Carter walked away with Iowa (technically he lost to Uncommitted 37%-28%) and had a whole month of that being the only "test" for any of the candidates and the media attention. Then he squeaked by in NH (28%-23% Udall - 15% Bayh) and that started the cascade.
Eventually a "Stop Carter" movement formed, but nobody really was behind it or strong enough to become the lone candidate, though Jerry Brown entered the race (IN MAY) to try and become it.
Convention:
On the GOP side that year, Reagan lost Iowa (45-43) and NH (49-48) then got crushed in every state until he got a win in North Carolina and then huge ones in Texas (winner-take-all) and Georgia.
There were enough un-elected delegates that the convention would decide the race:
Traditionally, NH was the first big one, but Iowa was first under the new system by a month. Everyone else was waiting for NH and forward. Carter walked away with Iowa (technically he lost to Uncommitted 37%-28%) and had a whole month of that being the only "test" for any of the candidates and the media attention. Then he squeaked by in NH (28%-23% Udall - 15% Bayh) and that started the cascade.
Eventually a "Stop Carter" movement formed, but nobody really was behind it or strong enough to become the lone candidate, though Jerry Brown entered the race (IN MAY) to try and become it.
Code:
Jimmy Carter - 6,971,770 (40.16%)
Jerry Brown - 2,449,374 (13.98%)
George Wallace - 2,236,186 (12.75%)
Mo Udall - 1,611,754 (9.16%)
Henry M. Jackson - 1,134,375 (6.32%)
Frank Church - 830,818 (4.77%)
Unpledged - 412,915 (2.37%)
Lloyd Bentsen - 347,078 (1.99%)
Robert Byrd - 340,309 (1.95%)
Sargent Shriver - 332,919 (1.91%)
Fred R. Harris - 265,947 (1.52%)
Ellen McCormack - 243,727 (1.40%)
Milton Shapp - 88,254 (0.50%)
Birch Bayh - 86,438 (0.49%)
Hubert Humphrey - 61,992 (0.35%)
Others - 32,380 (0.18%)
Code:
Jimmy Carter - 2,239 (74.48%)
Mo Udall - 330 (10.98%)
Jerry Brown - 301 (10.01%)
George Wallace - 57 (1.90%)
Ellen McCormack - 22 (0.73%)
Frank Church - 19 (0.63%)
Hubert Humphrey - 10 (0.33%)
Henry M. Jackson - 10 (0.33%)
Fred R. Harris - 9 (0.30%)
Milton Shapp - 2 (0.07%)
Robert Byrd, Cesar Chavez, Leon Jaworski, Barbara Jordan, Ted Kennedy, Jennings Randolph, Fred Stover - each 1 vote (0.03%)On the GOP side that year, Reagan lost Iowa (45-43) and NH (49-48) then got crushed in every state until he got a win in North Carolina and then huge ones in Texas (winner-take-all) and Georgia.
There were enough un-elected delegates that the convention would decide the race:
Code:
President Ford 1187
Ronald Reagan 1070
Elliot L. Richardson 1I was thinking that Trump would win NH, but after tonight I'm not even sure anymore.
neurosisxeno
Member
I'm thinking Rubio is going to gain steam and upset in NH.
benjipwns
Banned
Bernie got basically 50% and Cruz-Trump-Carson-Paul combined for 66% of the vote. Bernie could even Hillary on prospective national delegates and the GOP Four went 21-6 against everyone else.
Not exactly roses for "the establishment" of either party.
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