Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You underestimate just how little CNN cares about objective facts. It could have been 5 points and they'd still troll somehow. They want a race that spans for months.
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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops
- Thread starter Diablos
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You underestimate just how little CNN cares about objective facts. It could have been 5 points and they'd still troll somehow. They want a race that spans for months.
Basically my feelings on the matter. I think a Clinton win is better for the party overall, but I'm more than happy to have Sanders stay in till the bitter end and push her as far left as possible.
Yet another reason I'm not that worried about Trump. He certainly isn't going to give up, the caucus format really wasn't good for him, and the media will keep him relevant as long as they possibly can.
RastaMentality
Banned
If only Carsonmentum had gone on longer and had him edge out a third place.
Carson isn't competing for votes with Rubio. If he had done better, those votes would have come from Trump/Cruz. Rubio might even have won.
I said so too!I also said Sanders would win the popular vote, so I'm 2 for 2 so far.
I don't think it's a given Sanders won the initial popular vote. Given O'Malley was non viable most places and his supporters seemed to mostly go Sanders, it seems plausible that it was about even in the popular vote but the extra 2-3% from O'Malley allowed him to get so close
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I think Bernie was at least successful in extending the game clock. His campaign could have easily ended tonight, but he's now staying alive until South Carolina.
He can't really use Iowa as a boost, but he's been slowly gaining momentum everywhere as time goes on, so it is possible he doesn't need it, and it's not like it's such a bad result that it'll kill that momentium.
If he does tie or win South Carolina, then that would change everything, and I would start believing in him winning being possible. I don't believe he'll do that well in South Carolina, but I do see the path of it being feasible. Remember 3-4 weeks ago, the thought of Bernie winning Iowa was farfetched.
He can't really use Iowa as a boost, but he's been slowly gaining momentum everywhere as time goes on, so it is possible he doesn't need it, and it's not like it's such a bad result that it'll kill that momentium.
If he does tie or win South Carolina, then that would change everything, and I would start believing in him winning being possible. I don't believe he'll do that well in South Carolina, but I do see the path of it being feasible. Remember 3-4 weeks ago, the thought of Bernie winning Iowa was farfetched.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I don't think it's a given Sanders won the initial popular vote. Given O'Malley was non viable most places and his supporters seemed to mostly go Sanders, it seems plausible that it was about even in the popular vote but the extra 2-3% from O'Malley allowed him to get so close
I don't think so. O'Malley was polling at about 3%, and supposing he split 2-1, that's only +1% for Sanders. Clinton's rural advantage was not as small as +1.1 or +1.2. I mean, we'll know come August, but personally I have absolute confidence.
I don't think he's dropping out until the convention, no matter what happens. He has the money, and his campaign has always been more about accumulating influence than realistically competing for the nomination.
I'm impressed that he pulled so close considering how good Clinton's ground game was supposed to be. The turnout wasn't exactly what he wanted, but there may be signs of a small 'political revolution' so to speak.
Retromelon
Member
Clinton won, its all over. All the trump people got btfo
There is nothing to be excited for anymore, the nsa will still spy on all of us, republicans will still fuck shit up in the midterms. I dont know what hillary is running to accomplish. Because a republican president would be worse and to make incremental improvements?
there is no longer anything to hope for or be happy about
There is nothing to be excited for anymore, the nsa will still spy on all of us, republicans will still fuck shit up in the midterms. I dont know what hillary is running to accomplish. Because a republican president would be worse and to make incremental improvements?
there is no longer anything to hope for or be happy about
I agree. It was a super successful turnout by Bernie, but in the end, he couldn't win his third best state, which makes me think that she has it in the bag.
benjipwns
Banned
Suicide Squad
Retromelon
Member
The trailer looked nice but im not really into comic book movies
How can i like hillary clinton. i want to be on the winning side for once. Somebody, make me like hillary clinton.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not talking about keeping alive a dead campaign. I'm talking about legit having a path to the nomination, even if it is extremely tough.
People are acting like Bernie was a given in Iowa all along like Cruz was, but I don't see that at all. He was far behind until the last moments heading up to the election. I don't see why we should discount this as a possible blueprint for other states.
Iowa was Rubio's litterally 1st best state going by polling. And yet everybody's declared him the winner of the night by getting third.
benjipwns
Banned
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?
I think it's much harder the closer the states are to each other. You don't have the infrastructure you had in Iowa in all 50 states.
Officerrob
Banned
Bernie camped in Iowa for months to get people to know him, that's the only time that will happen.
There's a subtle difference, but people weren't acting like Bernie was a given in Iowa. They were acting like he HAD to win Iowa by a fair margin to have a good chance at the Democratic nomination. That's according to analysts such as Sam Wang. The fact that it was close is bad news for Bernie, but not campaign-ending. He still has a pulse, it just doesn't look good.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Sanders odds on Betfair actually went up as a result of this... from 19% to 21%.
Small victories. Take 'em where you can get them.
Also, I realized I wasn't 2 for 2 because I also predicted a Trump win, so only 2 for 3. Booo.
Small victories.
Take 'em where you can get them.Also, I realized I wasn't 2 for 2 because I also predicted a Trump win, so only 2 for 3. Booo.
Black Republican
Member
#MicrosoftRubioFraud trending heavy again right now.
yeah im taking my nap
yeah im taking my nap
shinra-bansho
Member
Where are these turnout figures coming from? I saw a record breaking round figure of 180K for the GOP. I've only seen the Dem side described as "robust" without numbers.
He has a decent chance in Nevada I imagine. Media will give him some love after a "tie" + a probable massacre in NH. I don't think he'll get killed in Nevada. From what I understand, he's trying pretty hard out there.
In the Iowa Caucus thread, I saw people throw around numbers of ~140k for the Democratic Caucus.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I heard 181k for Dems and 186k for GOP on MSNBC a few hours ago, but that was probably projected not confirmed as not everywhere had finished reporting. Can't find a link, sorry.
Officerrob
Banned
Where is he getting the second clear win?
Sanders odds on Betfair actually went up as a result of this... from 19% to 21%.
Small victories.
Also, I realized I wasn't 2 for 2 because I also predicted a Trump win, so only 2 for 3. Booo.
Kind of expected. After all, defeat by a decent margin would have been fatal.
My read is that both candidates will be happy with that result. Sanders is still in, but Clinton will be confident of holding Nevada.
User 463088
Banned
I think the slightly Hillary lead helps him in a narrative sense, but nothing more. He needed more delegates out of it than Hillary. The different reports I'm seeing, regardless of the super delegates, show Hillary getting 1 more than Bernie? Is that correct? AP is giving her 22 and Bernie 21. Isn't there another one, though? Wikipedia is giving her 23. I'm not sure on this. I can't seem to find a good answer.
He's talking about if he had won Iowa.
Republic of Ezo
Member
Looks like Clinton eked out a win in Iowa, which is good enough for me. Just got back from taking my fiancée to a hospital in Malaysia and running on two hours sleep so I'll take whatever good news I can get. I don't see any realistic path for Sanders to win the nom without Iowa and NH both (though frankly I think he would have lost even if he won both).
I'm increasingly thinking Rubio is going to come away with the GOP nom though, which worries me.
I'm increasingly thinking Rubio is going to come away with the GOP nom though, which worries me.
Officerrob
Banned
Ahhh, ok
User 463088
Banned
I hope your fiancee is okay.
Republic of Ezo
Member
She is. Seems like it was a bad reaction to an antibiotic, but all seems well now.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Sam Wang was saying that he needed Iowa to get a boost and prove he didn't need minorities. But I'm saying he's been seeing a sustained boost just about everywhere as time goes on even without specific targeting like Iowa. South Carolina is no exception.
And he was never going to win without minority support, so I guess I never saw Iowa as a must win demographically. That story is the same for me today as it was yesterday. He needs to do better with minorities.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
One delegate out of 4,764 is really meaningless.
Thank you
If it stays that way, even giving Sanders Minnesota, going to be very hard for him to keep enough momentum going to maintain any sort of pressure on Clinton.
Thank you
If it stays that way, even giving Sanders Minnesota, going to be very hard for him to keep enough momentum going to maintain any sort of pressure on Clinton.
Yeah, Super Tuesday was always going to kill him if he didn't outperform in Iowa, NH, and then Nevada. He didn't in Iowa.
I dunno what's best in terms of narrative for Clinton.
If she lost two in a row it'd be a bad narrative for her given she's the inevitability candidate. Suddenly not so inevitable hang on why are we voting for you again.
If she absolutely crushed it, it runs the risk of looking too much like a coronation by DWS I guess and pissing off anyone unhappy with the status quo.
Best result was probably she win a bit more convincingly that she did but I suppose an extremely narrow win isn't the worst thing for her.
It'll be interesting to see how expectations come into play in New Hampshire.
If she lost two in a row it'd be a bad narrative for her given she's the inevitability candidate. Suddenly not so inevitable hang on why are we voting for you again.
If she absolutely crushed it, it runs the risk of looking too much like a coronation by DWS I guess and pissing off anyone unhappy with the status quo.
Best result was probably she win a bit more convincingly that she did but I suppose an extremely narrow win isn't the worst thing for her.
It'll be interesting to see how expectations come into play in New Hampshire.
Nevada will be critical, and I don't think his Iowa performance is going to be enough to really change it, even accounting for a big win in New Hampshire. I suspect Clinton's machinery will be far better than his in Nevada come the 20th.
shinra-bansho
Member
I guess as an example Texas is worth 222 delegates, so like a 20% lead there would be worth all the delegates on offer today.
A lot can happen in a month though.
A lot can happen in a month though.
benjipwns
Banned
Sucks that they didn't ask the same questions.
Most Important Issue:
Government Spending (32%): Cruz 27% - Rubio 21% - Trump 19% - Carson 11% - Paul 9%
Economy/Jobs (27%): Rubio 30% - Trump 24% - Cruz 18% - Carson 9%
Terrorism (25%): Cruz 33% - Rubio 26% - Trump 21% - Carson 8%
Immigration (13%): Trump 44% - Cruz 34% - Rubio 10% - Carson 7%
Economy/Jobs (33%): Clinton 51% - Sanders 42%
Health Care (30%): Clinton 59% - Sanders 38%
Income Inequality (27%): Sanders 61% - Clinton 34%
Terrorism (6%): Clinton 65% - Sanders 28%
Top Candidate Quality:
Shares My Values (42%): Cruz 38% - Rubio 21% - Carson 15% - Paul 7% - Trump 5%
Can Win (21%): Rubio 44% - Trump 24% - Cruz 22%
Can Bring Change (21%): Trump 33% - Cruz 25% - Rubio 17% - Carson 8% - Paul 5%
Tells It Like It Is (14%): Trump 66% - Cruz 11% - Carson 6%
Right Experience (28%): Clinton 88% - Sanders 9%
Cares About People (26%): Sanders 74% - Clinton 22%
Honest And Trustworthy (24%): Sanders 83% - Clinton 10%
Can Win In November (20%): Clinton 77% - Sanders 17%
The Next President Should:
Be Experienced (46%): Rubio 39% - Cruz 35% - Paul 6%
Be Outside The Establishment (48%): Trump 46% - Cruz 20% - Carson 17% - Rubio 7% - Paul 4%
Continue Obama's Policies (55%): Clinton 68% - Sanders 26%
Be More Liberal (33%): Sanders 76% - Clinton 21%
Be Less Liberal (7%): Sanders 50% - Clinton 43%
When Did You Decide Whom To Support:
Before Last Month (35%): Trump 39% - Cruz 26% - Rubio 13% - Carson 9% - Paul 5%
Last Month (20%): Cruz 32% - Rubio 27% - Trump 23% - Carson 8%
Last Week (10%): Cruz 36% - Rubio 27% - Trump 13% - Carson 11%
Last Few Days (19%): Rubio 31% - Cruz 27% - Trump 13% - Carson 8% - Paul 5% - Kasich 5%
Today (16%): Rubio 28% - Cruz 22% - Trump 15% - Carson 13% - Paul 6%
Before Last Month (59%): Clinton 54% - Sanders 42%
Last Month (18%): Sanders 57% - Clinton 41%
Last Few Days (9%): Clinton 46% - Sanders 46% - O'Malley 6%
Today (7%): Clinton 45% - Sanders 42%
Most Important Issue:
Government Spending (32%): Cruz 27% - Rubio 21% - Trump 19% - Carson 11% - Paul 9%
Economy/Jobs (27%): Rubio 30% - Trump 24% - Cruz 18% - Carson 9%
Terrorism (25%): Cruz 33% - Rubio 26% - Trump 21% - Carson 8%
Immigration (13%): Trump 44% - Cruz 34% - Rubio 10% - Carson 7%
Economy/Jobs (33%): Clinton 51% - Sanders 42%
Health Care (30%): Clinton 59% - Sanders 38%
Income Inequality (27%): Sanders 61% - Clinton 34%
Terrorism (6%): Clinton 65% - Sanders 28%
Top Candidate Quality:
Shares My Values (42%): Cruz 38% - Rubio 21% - Carson 15% - Paul 7% - Trump 5%
Can Win (21%): Rubio 44% - Trump 24% - Cruz 22%
Can Bring Change (21%): Trump 33% - Cruz 25% - Rubio 17% - Carson 8% - Paul 5%
Tells It Like It Is (14%): Trump 66% - Cruz 11% - Carson 6%
Right Experience (28%): Clinton 88% - Sanders 9%
Cares About People (26%): Sanders 74% - Clinton 22%
Honest And Trustworthy (24%): Sanders 83% - Clinton 10%
Can Win In November (20%): Clinton 77% - Sanders 17%
The Next President Should:
Be Experienced (46%): Rubio 39% - Cruz 35% - Paul 6%
Be Outside The Establishment (48%): Trump 46% - Cruz 20% - Carson 17% - Rubio 7% - Paul 4%
Continue Obama's Policies (55%): Clinton 68% - Sanders 26%
Be More Liberal (33%): Sanders 76% - Clinton 21%
Be Less Liberal (7%): Sanders 50% - Clinton 43%
When Did You Decide Whom To Support:
Before Last Month (35%): Trump 39% - Cruz 26% - Rubio 13% - Carson 9% - Paul 5%
Last Month (20%): Cruz 32% - Rubio 27% - Trump 23% - Carson 8%
Last Week (10%): Cruz 36% - Rubio 27% - Trump 13% - Carson 11%
Last Few Days (19%): Rubio 31% - Cruz 27% - Trump 13% - Carson 8% - Paul 5% - Kasich 5%
Today (16%): Rubio 28% - Cruz 22% - Trump 15% - Carson 13% - Paul 6%
Before Last Month (59%): Clinton 54% - Sanders 42%
Last Month (18%): Sanders 57% - Clinton 41%
Last Few Days (9%): Clinton 46% - Sanders 46% - O'Malley 6%
Today (7%): Clinton 45% - Sanders 42%
The way I see it, although Sanders has plenty of enthusiasm and money supporting him, he lacks the organisation and infrastructure. As a result, he's really focused on Iowa and NH to try and maximise his performance there in the hope that that will carry him. While it remains to be seen what effect those states will have, my feeling is that this result probably isn't good enough.
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