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PoliGAF 2015-2016 |OT3| If someone named PhoenixDark leaves your party, call the cops

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O

Officerrob

Banned
benjipwns said:
Sucks that they didn't ask the same questions.

Most Important Issue:

Economy/Jobs (33%): Clinton 51% - Sanders 42%
Health Care (30%): Clinton 59% - Sanders 38%
Income Inequality (27%): Sanders 61% - Clinton 34%
Terrorism (6%): Clinton 65% - Sanders 28%
Click to expand...

Kinda surprised Hillary destroyed Bernie on Health Care
 
U

User 463088

Banned
SmokeMaxX said:
Lol
Click to expand...

I'm not the only one who saw that as ridiculous, right? I mean...really?

There was never a winning way for Hillary to play this. She wins by a ton, then it is a pointless victory. She has to carry the inevitable meme around. She loses, and HOLY HELL THE WHEELS ARE OFF THE BUS!

I wonder if anyone in NH will take a 2nd look at Hillary because of the Cruz/Trump/Rubio dynamic. If Rubio starts surging, perhaps people will feel that they don't want to risk a Bernie candidacy Do you think there could be a "If it's Trump, who the hell cares, let's put up Satan and we'll win!" but if it's someone establishment, maybe the more Dem establishment feels a bit nervous and wants to be more practical.

There's also the potential that Independents decide to primary with the GOP instead of the Democrats, if they think Bernie has an insurmountable lead. They may want to play spoiler to get Trump's goat or something.

She's still going to get the shit kicked out of her in NH, though. No question at all.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
They asked a variant question, who do you trust on health care:
47% - Both: Clinton 49% - Sanders 44% - O'Malley 3%
26% - Only Clinton: Clinton 96% - O'Malley 3% - Sanders 1%
24% - Only Sanders: Sanders 97% - O'Malley 2% - Clinton 1%

And who shares your values:
56% - Both: Clinton 59% - Sanders 35% - O'Malley 3%
25% - Only Sanders: Sanders 96% - O'Malley 2% - Clinton 1%
16% - Only Clinton: Clinton 94% - O'Malley 3% - Sanders 2%
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
I'll preface this by saying saying Rubio did very well and deserves attention after tonight. But tonight was also a textbook case of not just blind media narrative creation but also the power of treating the media well. I can't think of another example of two front runner candidates with terrible media relations coming in first and second like this. Cruz's campaign treats the media with disdain and while Trump loves the media, his campaign people treat them poorly. On the contrary Rubio's camp has been very nice and flattering of the media. They clearly picked their favorite tonight.

NH will be very interesting on both sides. Sanders and Trump seemingly have big leads: will they hold? Rubio has more competition this time, also. Christie and Kasich could hand this over to Trump by splitting the moderate vote, just as Carson could have handed Iowa to Trump by splitting the Evangelical vote.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Her last 10+ point lead on RCP was Jan 10th.

She was up 25 points going into Thanksgiving.

Her and Bernie were tied in mid-September.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
benjipwns said:
Her last 10+ point lead on RCP was Jan 10th.

She was up 25 points going into Thanksgiving.

Her and Bernie were tied in mid-September.
Click to expand...

She had a few good polls that were total outliers around then. I think part of it was people rallying around the flag after her BENGHAZIIIIIIII hearing.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
benjipwns said:
Shares My Values (42%): Cruz 38% - Rubio 21% - Carson 15% - Paul 7% - Trump 5%
Can Win (21%): Rubio 44% - Trump 24% - Cruz 22%
Can Bring Change (21%): Trump 33% - Cruz 25% - Rubio 17% - Carson 8% - Paul 5%
Tells It Like It Is (14%): Trump 66% - Cruz 11% - Carson 6%

Right Experience (28%): Clinton 88% - Sanders 9%
Cares About People (26%): Sanders 74% - Clinton 22%
Honest And Trustworthy (24%): Sanders 83% - Clinton 10%
Can Win In November (20%): Clinton 77% - Sanders 17%
Click to expand...

The shares my values voters are presumably the Evangelicals.

Rubio and Clinton's voters are focused on the endgame. Curious if this proportion of voters increases as we go forward, or alternatively, if as noted above Trump starts bombing out.

Also, the "Tells It Like It Is" as the most important issue (eyes rolling) would have constituted like 10% of Trump's vote?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Best part?
300px-Christie_2k16.png


3%

He beat out Jeb and Kasich (1%) and Santorum (0%).
 
T

tmarg

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Also, the "Tells It Like It Is" as the most important issue (eyes rolling) would have constituted like 10% of Trump's vote?
Click to expand...

More than that. If you assume all of that 66% of 14% voted for Trump, that would be 9% of the total vote, or about 1/3 of his total. In reality, not all of them would vote based on their one most important issue, but it will be way more than just 10% of his votes.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
From yesterday's NYT piece on older women who dislike Hillary, a now relevant little nugget:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/o...y-dont-boomer-women-like-hillary-clinton.html

Over the past several months, I have had some 50 conversations with Democratic women of boomer age. A female editor at a prestigious national magazine confided: “I should be jumping up and down with enthusiasm for Hillary’s candidacy, but I’m not.” I asked if she would vote for Hillary in the end. “I am waiting to see if Bernie wins Iowa,” she whispered. “If so, I’m right there!”
Click to expand...
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
tmarg said:
More than that. If you assume all of that 66% of 14% voted for Trump, that would be 9% of the total vote, or about 1/3 of his total. In reality, not all of them would vote based on their one most important issue, but it will be way more than just 10% of his votes.
Click to expand...
No, I meant like 10% out of his 24%, I should have been more clear. (If they had voted based on their most important issue yeah.)
 
C

CCS

Banned
Serious question: how on earth has one precinct still not reported? Have they taken all the voters hostage or something? :p
 
U

User 463088

Banned
In good news for me, the tie means that the future Mr. Adam wants a 2nd date. :p We're going to caucus this weekend.

Donald is never over.

In the words of the sages:

c52716ec26b646200e981af71992f7d8.gif
 
B

Black Republican

Member
some of the Trump people obviously are pissed

"Beats the hell out of me," said Michelle Tepley, a Trump fan from Waukee. "It doesn't make any sense."

"Sad," said Kimberly Hawn of West Des Moines.

"I don't know, I don't know," said Steve Brewer of Norwalk.

"It was the evangelicals," said Dick Stoffer of West Des Moines. "They've done it before -- they did it four years before with Santorum, they did it with Huckabee before that."

"The evangelicals," said Carol Anne Tracy of West Des Moines. "We've got a lot of evangelicals, and I just don't think they felt that [Trump] praised God enough."

"It's happened before -- the guy with the biggest Bible wins Iowa," said Ken Crow, a Tea Party activist from Winterset.
Click to expand...

why?
At the caucus I attended, in Pleasant Hill, a suburb just east of Des Moines, there was no one to speak for Trump -- no representative of the campaign -- and no voter willing to stand up and speak on his behalf. (The precinct ended in a Cruz landslide: 110 votes for the Texas senator, versus 36 for Trump and 34 for Rubio.)

At the Sheraton, some Trump supporters had similar stories.

"We were at a caucus and Trump didn't even have anyone there to speak for him," one man told me.

"That's insane," added a man nearby.
"I was at a caucus, and no one spoke for him there, either," added someone else.

In the days leading up to the voting , when I talked to voters on the fence between candidates -- people who could possibly be persuaded to support Trump -- one thing became clear: everybody watched the debate. It was the only debate held in Iowa, and it took place in the final days of the campaign, when voters who had been reluctant to pay attention months earlier had finally become interested and involved. They all tuned in. And Trump wasn't there.

"That was the one thing that I thought was a clear mistake," Republican blogger Craig Robinson, a former political director of the state GOP, said in a phone conversation Monday afternoon. With that one decision, Trump undermined a lot of the work he had done in the previous months.
Click to expand...

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2582165?platform=hootsuite
 
U

User 463088

Banned
CCS said:
Have fun! I wonder if you'll end up with another tight finish...
Click to expand...

tumblr_inline_nn7lr7hpH31qddzt0_500.gif



Is it sad that I want the Trump people to turn on the evangelicals for no other reason than I'm a sick, bitter bitch with a stone where my heart should be? Are we still going to go with Trump winning NH?

How did he completely miss the actual caucus part of the caucus, though? Someone that works for him had to know they were screwing this up, right? I mean...one would hope.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/bernie-sanders-just-changed-the-democratic-party
That history explains why Sanders emerged as the big winner of the night on the Democratic side. Not only has he pulled off a rags-to-riches story, he has done it on the basis of a message that is more radical than anything Presidential politics has seen in decades—a message that he repeats with such regularity and relentlessness that his stump speech has become familiar to many Americans.

As he looked ahead to carrying on the fight in New Hampshire, he used many of his favorite lines. “It is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics.” “We do not represent the interests of the billionaire class, Wall Street, or corporate America. We don’t want their money.” “The American people are saying no to a rigged economy.” “We are going to create an economy that works for working families, not just the billionaire class.”

In the face of such an onslaught of populist rhetoric, and the promise of some equally populist policies, what can an establishment politician like Clinton do? If the entrance polls that showed her winning handily had proved accurate, she would have been able to dismiss Sanders as a fringe candidate whose appeal was restricted to New Englanders and white, college-educated liberals. Now she will have to soldier on through New Hampshire, seeking to pull off a surprise comeback victory there, as she did in 2008. And if she can’t quite manage that—the polls, for what they are worth, show Sanders well ahead in New Hampshire—she will hope to turn things around in Nevada, where a Democratic caucus will be held on February 20th, and in the South Carolina Democratic primary, a week later.

No doubt, the going for Sanders will get a lot tougher once the race moves to states with much larger numbers of non-white voters. On the basis of her last name, her organizational ties, and her personal appeal, Clinton’s advantage over Sanders among minority voters appears to be substantial. A few months ago, however, her lead in Iowa also seemed quite substantial. As time progressed, Sanders was able to eat into it and, eventually, to eliminate it.

Speaking on CNN as it got late, David Axelrod, President Obama’s former campaign manager, made an acute point. One of Hillary’s problems is that her campaign is largely about herself—her experience, her electability, and her toughness. “I will keep doing what I have done my entire life,” she said in her non-victory speech. “I will keep standing up for you. I will keep fighting for you.” Sanders, on the other hand, rarely mentions himself in his speeches. His campaign is all about his message of taking American back from the billionaires. And as Axelrod pointed out, it is often easier to inspire people, particularly young people, with an uplifting theme than with a resumé.

This, of course, was also the problem that Clinton faced in 2008, when Obama ran on a message of hope and the slogan “Yes, we can.” In recent weeks, the Clinton campaign’s response to the Sanders and his promises of ambitious policy actions has sometimes seemed to be “No, we can’t.” In Iowa, at least, that didn’t prove to be a winning message.
Click to expand...
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I want a fresh round of post-IA polling on the R side. I'm pretty sure the ticket is now Rubio/Kasich which really sucks.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
benjipwns said:
How is Rubio/Kasich going to get around immigration? And accepting the SC ruling that destroyed marriage, America and God?
Click to expand...
Rubio will pivot back to gang of eight Rubio in the general. Rubio is an opportunist, he'll run to the middle in the general to win.


This is going to suck. Rubio is going to damn hard to beat
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Republican said:
is real clear politics a good site to use for averages or is there a better site?
Click to expand...

If you want an average, I'd go with Pollster. RCP just is weird about which polls they take and which they won't. Plus, they treat everything the exact same. I prefer 538 and Pollster, but I check RCP all the time.

I have no life.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Y2Kev said:
It was the most important issue tonight, was it not? And he still outperformed. When the other establishment freaks drop out, he'll have a clear shot.
Click to expand...
No, and restrictionists got 85+% of the vote for those who it was their most important issue.

The establishment in total got a third of the vote and will walk away with as many delegates as Cruz alone.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
2012: Mitt Romney--24.6% and 2nd place

2016: Donald Trump--24.3% and 2nd place

Forgive me if I'm not worried about Rubio yet. Clearly that loss didn't hurt Mitt.
 
P

pa22word

Member
So I guess I ash Carter is getting ready to lobby Congress to inflate spending towards russia...



Anyone else tired as fuck of us spending more and more money to protect a Europe that doesn't seem willing to protect itself (check out germany, the strongest economy in the eu, contribution to Nato vs gdp sometime)? I mean fuck, Europe destroyed itself two fucking times over, and the second time we bankrolled them out of it. If nukes weren't involved I'd be willing to say to us to throw our hands in the air and let them have each other at this point. How many times do we have to do this before the EU gets the damned point and funds it's own defense program?
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
adam387 said:
tumblr_inline_nn7lr7hpH31qddzt0_500.gif



Is it sad that I want the Trump people to turn on the evangelicals for no other reason than I'm a sick, bitter bitch with a stone where my heart should be? Are we still going to go with Trump winning NH?

How did he completely miss the actual caucus part of the caucus, though? Someone that works for him had to know they were screwing this up, right? I mean...one would hope.
Click to expand...

Bitch, that tea better be scolding after that second date.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Hopefully, Kasich, Bush and Christie refuse to drop out even though they're losing losertons.

Also, Rubio apparently spent big in Iowa to get his third place, so there's that. But I think his fundraising is going to tick up after this.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
pa22word said:
How many times do we have to do this before the EU gets the damned point and funds it's own defense program?
Click to expand...

Know who spends their fair share on defence in there?

Greece.

ba dum tish

but really, UK just had a huge kerfuffle over Trident and nearly all EU countries decided to drink deep from the austerity kool aid, so good luck with that. Plus its geopolitics, US does it to limit greater sino-russian advances.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Hopefully, Kasich, Bush and Christie refuse to drop out even though they're losing losertons.

Also, Rubio apparently spent big in Iowa to get his third place, so there's that. But I think his fundraising is going to tick up after this.
Click to expand...
Endorsements will start to pile up. Senator Tim Scott is endorsing him this morning.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
pa22word said:
So I guess I ash Carter is getting ready to lobby Congress to inflate spending towards russia...



Anyone else tired as fuck of us spending more and more money to protect a Europe that doesn't seem willing to protect itself (check out germany, the strongest economy in the eu, contribution to Nato vs gdp sometime)? I mean fuck, Europe destroyed itself two fucking times over, and the second time we bankrolled them out of it. If nukes weren't involved I'd be willing to say to us to throw our hands in the air and let them have each other at this point. How many times do we have to do this before the EU gets the damned point and funds it's own defense program?
Click to expand...
He only wants to quadruple the spending. It's basically brutal austerity.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cheebo said:
Endorsements will start to pile up. Senator Tim Scott is endorsing him this morning.
Click to expand...

We all knew this was going to happen. Rubio is easily the best establiahment candidate they have this year.

The most interesting thing to me is how many endorsements Cruz picks up. I'm guessing not many.
 
T

tmarg

Member
Y2Kev said:
I want a fresh round of post-IA polling on the R side. I'm pretty sure the ticket is now Rubio/Kasich which really sucks.
Click to expand...

Yes, millions of pissed of bigots will now evaporate into thin air because Trump took second in a state he never should have been competitive in in the first place.

The Diablosing is strong tonight.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
I can't imagine the Bernie fans think he can still win a general right? Sanders vs Rubio? That's Mondale vs Reagan all over again.
 
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