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[dabig2]

Speaking of deep blue states with bat crazy republicans, so a new poll came out for Illinois and Trump is trouncing everyone in Cook and Lake counties, the two biggest counties in the state (Cook is where Chicagoland is located) by double digits. Heard it on local news, and the state Republican party leaders are expecting Illinois to be in play this election. Usually by the time Illinois primaries roll out, the presumptive nominee is all but crowned. But they said it's not going to be the case this cycle.

Loooooooooooool!

Hillary isn't losing the state she was born in. Chicago will turn out. Repubs letting their 2014 midterm victory cloud their minds. And I fully anticipate Tammy Duckworth riding that wave to the senate as well. Fuck, both Tammy and Hillary stumping around when the general comes along? Fuck outta here, Republicans, especially if Trump is leading the GOP charge.

 

[Wilsongt]

I am officially too gay for my own good. I just typed "werk" instead of "work".

 

[Teggy]

Loooooooooooool!

Hillary isn't losing the state she was born in. Chicago will turn out. Repubs letting their 2014 midterm victory cloud their minds. And I fully anticipate Tammy Duckworth riding that wave to the senate as well. Fuck, both Tammy and Hillary stumping around when the general comes along? Fuck outta here, Republicans, especially if Trump is leading the GOP charge.

I think he meant it would be in play for the republican primary.

 

[Yellowtail]

That is an incredibly silly thing to say if you knew peoples views in the area. Bernie has qualities that people in NH like, but it has nothing to do with proximity, because most of the people in the NE hate those from neighboring states. I didn't vote for Romney because he was Governor of Mass, and I sure as shit wouldn't vote for Kelly Ayotte just because she's from my sister state. I was in Manchester in July and people legitimately loved Trump for president there--Vermont on the other side of the line thinks he's an absolute joke. They had huge Trump 2016 signs on main roads (the size of billboards) which they didn't have for any other candidate.

Polling shows that New Englanders have historically overperformed by an average of 15% in the NH primary:

Bernie's actually overperforming his national numbers by about 30% right now, but ~15% is close to the difference between his Iowa and NH numbers - two states that are almost identical demographically.

At the very least, a lot of Western New Hampshire is in the Burlington media market, so Bernie's had far less of a name recognition deficit to overcome.

 

[dabig2]

I think he meant it would be in play for the republican primary.

Ah yeah, in that case I can see Trump having big success there, especially among the WASPs nests that pepper Cook and Lake counties (moreso Lake county)

 

[FloydtheFathead]

: bro fist :

I'll find out within 2 days either way.

Think positively.

I believe

 

[NeoXChaos]

Polling shows that New Englanders have historically overperformed by an average of 15% in the NH primary:

Bernie's actually overperforming his national numbers by about 30% right now, but ~15% is close to the difference between his Iowa and NH numbers - two states that are almost identical demographically.

At the very least, a lot of Western New Hampshire is in the Burlington media market, so Bernie's had far less of a name recognition deficit to overcome.

Does Bernie take NH or Hillary uses the IA win for a surprise shutdown in NH?

 

[RustyNails]

Loooooooooooool!

Hillary isn't losing the state she was born in. Chicago will turn out. Repubs letting their 2014 midterm victory cloud their minds. And I fully anticipate Tammy Duckworth riding that wave to the senate as well. Fuck, both Tammy and Hillary stumping around when the general comes along? Fuck outta here, Republicans, especially if Trump is leading the GOP charge.

Yeah sorry meant the primaries. No way a Republican can carry the state in a general election. Here's the primary poll

Trump's Lead in Illinois HUGE Among GOP Primary Voters: Poll

Asked “if the primary election for president was held today, for whom would you vote,” the results of Caccitolo’s poll break down this way:

Donald Trump: 30 percent
Ted Cruz: 15 percent
Marco Rubio: 13 percent
Undecided: 11 percent
Jeb Bush: 7 percent
Ben Carson: 6 percent
Chris Christie: 6 percent
John Kasich: 3 percent
Carly Fiorina: 2 percent
Rand Paul: 2 percent

 

[Sadsic]

you know i never really thought about it, but why are the presidential primaries all spread out? wouldn't it make sense if all the states had the presidential primaries on the same day, or same week even? wouldn't that make the voting much more fair, so that states like new jersey or new york who are dead last would actually matter in the primaries?

 

[Drakeon]

you know i never really thought about it, but why are the presidential primaries all spread out? wouldn't it make sense if all the states had the presidential primaries on the same day, or same week even? wouldn't that make the voting much more fair, so that states like new jersey or new york who are dead last would actually matter in the primaries?

Or, California, who has theirs in June IIRC. Well, I don't think having them all the same day is necessarily the answer, but NH and Iowa ALWAYS being first sucks for the rest of us, especially since they don't really represent the rest of the country and aren't exactly known for their diversity. Ideally you'd have a lottery to decide who goes when sometime a year or two before the actual primaries, at least that's how I'd see it being most fair (or a weight lottery so some lucky states don't get it two-three times in a row?)

 

[Yellowtail]

Does Bernie take NH or Hillary uses the IA win for a surprise shutdown in NH?

Hard to say. NH is famously contrarian so I don't think Hillary (or Bernie) winning IA will necessarily prove predictive.

It will come down to independent turnout. Like in 2008, Hillary has about a 10% lead among registered Democrats but trails by similar margins among independents. I think Trump's presence helps her a lot here - I think most independents will skip the Democratic race (especially if Hillary routs Bernie by double digits in Iowa) and vote in the more exciting Republican primary to either boost Trump or stop Trump.

 

[thepotatoman]

you know i never really thought about it, but why are the presidential primaries all spread out? wouldn't it make sense if all the states had the presidential primaries on the same day, or same week even? wouldn't that make the voting much more fair, so that states like new jersey or new york who are dead last would actually matter in the primaries?

The idea is it's too difficult for an individual to run a full national campaign. So having candidates only have to focus on a couple of their key states every few weeks makes sense. Then as candidates lose their key early states, they can drop out and narrow the field as other states go to vote, giving the effect of a runoff vote.

In reality, it simply makes Iowa mean a ton, New Hampshire and South Carolina matter a bit, and the Super Tuesday states finishes it off, making the rest meaningless.

It'd all make more sense if they cycled who gets to be the early states.

 

[Daniel B·]

I must be getting into the holiday spirit as I'm throwing some goodwill Obama's way!

So, apparently, I was under the false impression that no one from Wall St., went to jail, and if they were caught, red handed, they just ended up paying a fine that sounded big, but actually just amounted to a percentage of their earnings, that some just put down to the cost of doing business.

That was until I watched PBS's Frontline: To Catch a Trader (available on Amazon Prime etc), which makes the awesome Trading Places movie look like amateur hour! It also really brings home Bernie's comment that "The Business Model Of Wall Street Is Fraud", although, I would hope that you can still make a fine living, on Wall St., without playing fast and loose with the law, or by screwing your investors.

Both the movie and documentary are about insider trading, and the documentary concentrates specifically on the whale, SAC Capitol Advisors, which did have to agree on a landmark settlement of $1.8 billion, in 2014, and although the founder and CEO, Steven A. Cohen, escaped jail, other senior employees, such as Mathew Martoma, were convicted, following the multi-year FBI investigation, and is currently serving a nine year prison sentence.

This, at least, goes a little way to seemingly redress the imbalance between white collar and blue collar, crime prosecutions, so I say, good job, Mr. President, lets have more of the same, and if Hillary is elected, she better support similar actions, and pledge not to pardon the likes of Mark Rich, the trader known as the "King of Commodities".

 

[Diablos]

The Trump obsession is getting a bit disturbing. He is dominating the news. Dominating. No one gives a damn about anyone else.

 

[Coriolanus]

That was until I watched PBS's Frontline: To Catch a Trader (available on Amazon Prime etc), which makes the awesome Trading Places movie look like amateur hour! It also really brings home Bernie's comment that "The Business Model Of Wall Street Is Fraud", although, I would hope that you can still make a fine living, on Wall St., without playing fast and loose with the law, or by screwing your investors.

For more on that you should watch the documentary The Wolf Of Wall Street. Pretty good stuff. Even has DiCaprio on a bit role.

Fwiw there is little point in sending those kinds of men to jail. Couldn't find any data showing that it makes more traders wary of committing the shenanigans they tend to carry out and somehow doubt that prison can have any reforming effect on what one assumes would be considerably educated sociopaths. Would be inclined to favor just crushing them financially to recoup losses.

Obv aware that i'm in the minority with that.

 

[Makai]

Hugh Hewitt criticizes Hillary's "Trump is ISIS recruiter" comments

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im6zkx2v394

 

[Diablos]

Sen. Lindsey Graham would work with Hillary Clinton on a range of issues if she became president in exchange for concessions on fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

The South Carolina Senator, who is trailing in polls of the Republican presidential field, told TIME after a town hall meeting in Londonderry, N.H., that he would give a hypothetical President Clinton “political cover” on other issues if she fought ISIS.

“If she’s willing to be more robust in terms of destroying ISIL, I’d give her political cover,” Graham said. “If she wanted to be more muscular in her foreign policy, I would try to help her.”

Graham said he could imagine a relationship with Clinton similar to the one between Tip O’Neill, the Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, and President Reagan, who worked together on legislation. He said he would help Clinton on immigration, budget reform and defeating ISIS.

“Would she do something like Simpson-Bowles?” Graham said, referring to a bipartisan plan commissioned by the Obama Administration to reduce the federal deficit. “If she would be willing to do it, I’d be willing to play the part of, me and my colleagues, being Tip O’Neill.”

http://time.com/4156265/lindsey-graham-hillary-clinton-president/

Oh, Lindsey.

 

[Makai]

"I'm the only one who goes after Trump"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg3_OG-pA3Y

It's too bad Jeb isn't following the strategy of his super PAC

 

[RustyNails]

"I'm the only one who goes after Trump"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg3_OG-pA3Y

It's too bad Jeb isn't following the strategy of his super PAC

No one goes after Trump because they're smart and it backfires. Jeb, you're supposed to be the smart one.

 

[RustyNails]

I think Hillary played one of those 11th dimensional chess moves by baiting Trump into a feud with her. Her line about Trump being an ISIS recruiter was carefully planned to lure Trump into a high-profile media brawl with her that will probably dominate for rest of December and during Christmas, thereby underscoring the point that he is indeed the GOP's presumptive nominee while drowning out voices from Rubio and Cruz. It was carefully selected wording. That's all people are going to be talking about. Of course it also has the added effect of more Republicans coalescing around their man.

 

[B-Dubs]

I think Hillary played one of those 11th dimensional chess moves by baiting Trump into a feud with her. Her line about Trump being an ISIS recruiter was carefully planned to lure Trump into a high-profile media brawl with her that will probably dominate for rest of December and during Christmas, thereby underscoring the point that he is indeed the GOP's presumptive nominee while drowning out voices from Rubio and Cruz. It was carefully selected wording. That's all people are going to be talking about. Of course it also has the added effect of more Republicans coalescing around their man.

Yep, that is exactly what she was doing.

 

[User 463088]

That is an incredibly silly thing to say if you knew peoples views in the area. Bernie has qualities that people in NH like, but it has nothing to do with proximity, because most of the people in the NE hate those from neighboring states. I didn't vote for Romney because he was Governor of Mass, and I sure as shit wouldn't vote for Kelly Ayotte just because she's from my sister state. I was in Manchester in July and people legitimately loved Trump for president there--Vermont on the other side of the line thinks he's an absolute joke. They had huge Trump 2016 signs on main roads (the size of billboards) which they didn't have for any other candidate.

Bernie should win NH for a few reasons. It's demographically advantageous to him. It's full of white people which are, by far, his strongest demographic. Plus, it's not a closed primary. Independents can vote in whichever primary they wish to. Bernie does poorly among actual Democrats, but does well among Democratic leaning independents. As Yellowtail mentioned, New Englanders do better, on average, in NH than elsewhere. I do believe part of it is regional familiarity.

We have also now lost power 3 times today. I have no idea why this last time. They said it was fixed. Another 2 hours without it.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Yeah it's might be carefully planned, but it's a really dumb comment if I read that/heard that right. I was listening to Fox News talk radio this afternoon (not on purpose, was switching stations for better signal via Bluetooth but decided to stay and listen) and honestly could not believe she said that.

 

[East Lake]

Trump is also a wordsmith like Palin, but lot less stupid. He also coined "bigly" as in "I'm beating everyone in polls bigly!"

He's saying "big league."

Sort sounds like that though.

 

[RustyNails]

He's saying "big league."

Sort sounds like that though.

Is Donald Trump’s Favorite Term Bigly or Big League? You Make the Call.

 

[Hexa]

The Trump obsession is getting a bit disturbing. He is dominating the news. Dominating. No one gives a damn about anyone else.

I'm going to be really sad when it all comes to an end.

 

[Iolo]

Still a bit stunned he said "schlonged". I mean we still got 11 months to go and already the schlong comes out. I need to see them debate. Please.

 

[Makai]

The Trump obsession is getting a bit disturbing. He is dominating the news. Dominating. No one gives a damn about anyone else.

Everyone loves Trump coverage. The people who pop in every Trump thread to say, "I can't believe he is winning. Our media has failed us." are in denial.

 

[thepotatoman]

Everyone loves Trump coverage. The people who pop in every Trump thread to say, "I can't believe he is winning. Our media has failed us." are in denial.

I still can't believe that putting a bunch of attention on him for denying entry to all muslims is seen as helpful for Trump. Surely the blame isn't on the media if Republican's see that sort of clearly negative coverage and decide to side with Trump. If the only thing that matters is who gets talked about in the media more, than democracy truly has failed.

 

[East Lake]

Somewhat related.

https://theintercept.com/2015/12/10/cbs-chief-cheers-trump-go-donald-keep-getting-out-there/

 

[Cerium]

Tempting to cash out on Trump but I think we can go higher.

 

[Foffy]

I make it a policy to not date men who Bern. That shit never goes away.

But like all Berns, it cools off eventually.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Hillary's move was quite brilliant though because Trump already took the bait. Seems like it's just a taste of the emerging strategy Hillary's camp has in store for us in the general. I hope they continue to be on point.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I think Hillary played one of those 11th dimensional chess moves by baiting Trump into a feud with her. Her line about Trump being an ISIS recruiter was carefully planned to lure Trump into a high-profile media brawl with her that will probably dominate for rest of December and during Christmas, thereby underscoring the point that he is indeed the GOP's presumptive nominee while drowning out voices from Rubio and Cruz. It was carefully selected wording. That's all people are going to be talking about. Of course it also has the added effect of more Republicans coalescing around their man.

This makes sense on many levels. I find it hard to believe she simply made another mistake about videos being used to do x in the Middle East. Seemed calculated now that you piece it together like this.

 

[Yellowtail]

Quinnipiac (12/16-12/20)

Trump 28% (+1)
Cruz 24% (+8)
Rubio 12% (-5)
Carson 10% (-6)
Christie 6% (+4)
Bush 4% (-1)
Fiorina 2% (-1)
Paul 2% (-)
Huckabee 1% (-)
Kasich 1% (-1)

Clinton 61% (+1)
Sanders 30% (-)
O’Malley 2% (-)

 

[Black Republican]

Quinnipiac (12/16-12/20)

Trump 28% (+1)
Cruz 24% (+8)
Rubio 12% (-5)
Carson 10% (-6)
Christie 6% (+4)
Bush 4% (-1)
Fiorina 2% (-1)
Paul 2% (-)
Huckabee 1% (-)
Kasich 1% (-1)

Clinton 61% (+1)
Sanders 30% (-)
O’Malley 2% (-)

Rubio nooo

 

[Plinko]

LOL establishment. They can't even correctly unite behind a candidate.

By the way: am I the only one who thinks Trump is exponentially more electable than Cruz?

 

[BrokenIcarus]

LOL establishment. They can't even correctly unite behind a candidate.

By the way: am I the only one who thinks Trump is exponentially more electable than Cruz?

Nope, Cruz is the absolute worst.

 

[Frank the Great]

Quinnipiac (12/16-12/20)

Trump 28% (+1)
Cruz 24% (+8)
Rubio 12% (-5)
Carson 10% (-6)
Christie 6% (+4)
Bush 4% (-1)
Fiorina 2% (-1)
Paul 2% (-)
Huckabee 1% (-)
Kasich 1% (-1)

Clinton 61% (+1)
Sanders 30% (-)
O’Malley 2% (-)

Ugh fuck you Christie.

 

[Teggy]

Quinnipiac (12/16-12/20)

Trump 28% (+1)
Cruz 24% (+8)
Rubio 12% (-5)
Carson 10% (-6)
Christie 6% (+4)
Bush 4% (-1)
Fiorina 2% (-1)
Paul 2% (-)
Huckabee 1% (-)
Kasich 1% (-1)

Clinton 61% (+1)
Sanders 30% (-)
O’Malley 2% (-)

Cue Trump trashing Quinnipiac as a loser pollster.

 

[Y2Kev]

Wow. Party elders really need to ask kasich and either bush or Christie or both to drop out. The train is off the rails at this point though I think it's still really early.

If Iowa was in like two weeks i would be dying.

 

[gaugebozo]

Tempting to cash out on Trump but I think we can go higher.

Short Rubio!

 

[Incognito]

Nobody posted the revealing Cruz interview from National Review on campaign strategy? Dude is on it.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/428825/ted-cruz-conservative-strategy-marco-rubio-moderate

Cruz’s confidence owes to his campaign, an Obama-style grassroots-heavy operation that prioritizes direct voter contact and ground organization. So certain of his operational superiority has the senator become that he dons his strategist cap gleefully and discusses the most granular details of his polling enterprise and outreach program. Moreover, he mocks the approach taken by Rubio’s campaign, which is famously allergic to process stories and defiantly dependent on media buys. At one point Cruz suggests that his rival is “hiding from the grassroots” and running for president “from a TV studio.”

“Marco is perceived by many to be the most formidable candidate in the moderate lane. But he has serious competition in the moderate lane,” Cruz says. “Look, the winner of the moderate lane has to win New Hampshire. And right now there are a number of moderates who are competing vigorously for New Hampshire, and at this point it is not clear to me who will win.”

“Historically, conservatives have outnumbered moderates in the Republican party two to one. That has changed. Barack Obama has radicalized the American people. Today in the Republican party conservatives outnumber moderates three to one,” Cruz says. He continues: “Seventy-seven percent of Republican primary voters identify as conservative, 52 percent as very conservative. If we go head to head, one strong conservative versus one strong moderate, it’s game over, especially given that in past elections the moderate has always had all the money and the conservative has been broke. In this situation, the fact that has the Washington establishment perhaps most terrified is this: Of the 17 Republican candidates who started, the campaign with the most money in the bank is our campaign.”

“That same Republican-party establishment who thought it was a great idea to nominate a candidate who had designed and implemented a program just like Obamacare now thinks it’s a terrific idea to nominate a candidate who agrees with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on amnesty,” Cruz says. “If we do that — if the Republican nominee shares the very same views on amnesty for 12 million people that Hillary Clinton does — millions of working men and women will stay home, we will lose, and Hillary Clinton becomes the next president.”

And on and on.... Nothing if not confident.

 

[danm999]

Quinnipiac (12/16-12/20)

Trump 28% (+1)
Cruz 24% (+8)
Rubio 12% (-5)
Carson 10% (-6)
Christie 6% (+4)
Bush 4% (-1)
Fiorina 2% (-1)
Paul 2% (-)
Huckabee 1% (-)
Kasich 1% (-1)

Clinton 61% (+1)
Sanders 30% (-)
O’Malley 2% (-)

50 percent of American voters say they would be embarrassed to have Trump as president, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today.

This number is higher than I feared it would be, but lower than I hoped it would be.

 

[VanMardigan]

Cruz is clearly peaking right now and has run a capable and disciplined campaign. Too bad the coalition he is painstakingly building is really only useful in a republican primary. He can't win a general election with that demo.

 

[Amir0x]

Cruz is clearly peaking right now and has run a capable and disciplined campaign. Too bad the coalition he is painstakingly building is really only useful in a republican primary. He can't win a general election with that demo.

More like it's super awesome he can't with a general election with that demo!

 

[Cheebo]

I love the Cruz rise. I really really hope he wins the nomination. He is insane but he is traditionally insane and beatable by normal political rules. I feel more confident defeating him than Trump in all honesty. He doesn't get the crazies as hyped and excited since in the end he is just a boring politician.

 

[HylianTom]

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

LOL establishment. They can't even correctly unite behind a candidate.

By the way: am I the only one who thinks Trump is exponentially more electable than Cruz?

Trump has the potential for a bigger blowout, but Cruz is a more guaranteed loss, which is saying something.

 

[danm999]

Cruz exudes sleaze. He feels like the combination of Lionel Hutz and a True Blood villain.