Broken clocks dude, broken clocks.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print
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Broken clocks dude, broken clocks.
We are talking about NH, it has a far higher youth vote turnout than most States in the US in 08 especially there were 43% of 18-to-29 year-olds that took part in the primary.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I think you're right, but you're missing the obvious: If it works in a comedic way, it's because people were already thinking it. This is the same for every single SNL hitjob ever, whether Quayle (dumb baby) or Bush (Squinty Old Guy) or Bill (hey sexy) or Gore (robotic) or GWB (dumbass) or Palin (fucking pyscho gun nut). If it works it's because it was bound to work.
BertramCooper
Banned
I mean, in the case of Palin, it got to the point where people were (and still are) mistaking things Fey's Palin said as things the real Sarah Palin said.
I just wonder if something like that could happen with LD's Sanders. Depends on where they take the character, really.
theprodigy
Member
I thought they just gave Tina Fey a transcript of whatever Palin had said that week and she just read off it? I do know they did that a few times.
Check the unskewed numbers though.
BertramCooper
Banned
I think quite a bit of stuff they pulled directly (like bits and pieces from that horrendous Couric interview), but some of the stuff was exaggerated from (still stupid) things that Palin said.
Like the whole "I can see Russia from my house" line being an exaggerated version of Palin's daft comments on her foreign policy credentials. Now, a lot of people think she actually said that.
User 463088
Banned
The 18-29 turnout in NH in 2008 was 18%.
The 18-29 turnout in Iowa in 2008 was 22%.
While New Hampshire is on the higher side, they're not drastically more engaged than other states. Georgia, Utah and California all had similar numbers to NH in 2008.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Well, think about it from every one of those characters. POTATOES, Read My Lips, LOCKBOX, and so on. Eventually the impersonation is so good it becomes the way people remember that person.
(which is interesting considering they could never really get Obama down right)
BertramCooper
Banned
In retrospect I can't believe they didn't get more shit for having Fred Armisen as Obama.
I mean, he was pretty good at mimicking Obama's speech patterns, but it was still basically blackface.
Key and Pelee nailed Obama, so at least someone figured it out.
User 463088
Banned
I still remember Gore and that damned Lockbox.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Hilldawg back over 50%
I am completely wrong that the debate would not move the polls, although really I expected that if I were wrong, it would be in the other direction.
Won't there also be the impact of the Benghazi committee revelations be factoring in here as well as the debate?
Yellowtail
Member
It also remains to be seen whether Bernie will be able to put the organization together that can mobilize young voters to the polls.
The Obama campaign bused in thousands of students from other states back to their Iowa college compasses for caucus night. The Clinton team cried foul but it was legit. They knew how to play the game better than anyone.
Retromelon
Member
Thx for the knowledge, i totally had that all wrong.
It was a lulzy quote from bill clinton
That's the point isn't it, young vote turnout 43% of 18-29 year old's took part in the primary in NH in 08. 18% is nothing to sneeze at considering this is the group that is most underrepresented in any landline polling.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
That could be. Regardless, I didn't expect the needle to move toward Hilary or for such a strong positive outcome from her buzz-wise.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
It doesn't matter what percentage of that age bracket turns out, it only matters what percentage of the turnout is in that bracket. Sounds like the poll is representative of that.
User 463088
Banned
That's not how demographics work for polling, though.
I can get 100% of the possible dog vote in my house, and still lose the election for King of the Castle if my boyfriend gets 65% of the possible cat vote, simply because there's way more cats than dogs.
My jaw actually dropped
They did it perfectly. But its still not as iconic as those one word/phrase condensations of the parody that gave us lockbox/russia from my house and so forth.
This poll is not fulfilling my needs 1) it doesn't provide statistical breakdown of the age groups above 45 years of age 2) 70% of the polled are above 45 y/o.
Fenderputty
Banned
A revolving door of breaking down polls.
We are HillaryGAF/PollGAF after all. It is what we do best.
Fenderputty
Banned
What's the demographic here? Am I the old dude at 35?
User 463088
Banned
I'm 28. I get to hold onto that 18-29 demo until the General next year.
RustyNails
Member
Stop it.
That's an odd rewording of "This poll isn't telling me what I desperately want to hear."
User 463088
Banned
Eh, I still don't see it. He's trying to replicate Giuliani's Florida or burst strategy, which was pointless. If Biden comes in third in Iowa and New Hampshire, he's really lost several news cycles. I agree that South Carolina is his best bet, but a second place finish to Hillary in SC dooms his campaign. He doesn't have the ground game in place to go after the caucus states. (which means Iowa and Nevada are out). He's not a favorite son in New Hampshire, so that's out too. Hillary's current advantages with AA make South Carolina nearly impossible for him, I should think.
Assuming he is running, I have no idea why or how he expects to win. Maybe if he had gotten in prior to the first debate...but he's done no organizing, fundraising or canvassing. Seems like a waste to me, but there we go.
Edit: I've been thinking about Biden's Shrodinger's Campaign all day. (I'm at work, nothing better to do.) Anyway, There could be a net benefit to Hillary. She'll no longer be able to be labeled as a "Right leaning Democrat" (which is absurd anyway). Biden will occupy that space that no one thinks needs to be filled. That's a possible benefit, although I don't think it's necessary. I still think him entering the race is bad news for Sanders, since it removes any chance of him really moving the needle with minorities. He'd have to overcome the Clinton's long and strong history with the AA and Hispanic community, while having to fight off Biden as the successor to Obama's America. I still don't want him to run, nor do I think he should.
Chuck Todd suggested that. Anything he does at this point is purely going to involve a lot of "ifs".
Clinton IA and NH win: definitely over
Clinton IA and SC win: over
Sanders IA and NH win: ??
Clinton indictment: Big unlikely if but its a path
IA and NH voters certainly would not like him bypassing them for a SC strategy. He's either in all the way in IA and NH or bust.
Coriolanus
Banned
What is a poll? A miserable little pile of data. But enough talk.... I'll unskew you!
Black Mamba
Member
I thought everyone stopped doing landline only polling. Is there a firm still doing this?
I thought it was all landline + cell or online.
Also, reading this discussion, you're really just trying to find an excuse for why the poll is wrong. It may be an outlier, we can't know that it's not. But I don't see any reason to believe the methodology is flawed, yet. As has been shown, the electorate of young people in NH is pretty standard to track and it's a smaller percentage of the population than ever.
I think Bernie fans are in for a rude awakening on election nights. Bernie is pretty much a lock to underperform his polling right before election nights (assuming the polling doesn't have a large undecided number).
Bernie supprters are much less likely to turn out so if it's 53-43 Hillary over Sanders come NH week, he'll lose like 58-38. He needs to be ahead going in...
I'm just saying that I don't normally see polls where the majority of the people that take part aren't even broken down into subsets . It's pretty normal to want that type of data in order to reflect to earlier polls and figure out if the same trend with particular age groups is being maintained.
It isn't about the excuse of the poll being wrong, I've never called that into question - I just said that 70% of people that took part of the poll are above 45 years of age and I don't have data about the age breakdown for those 70% of people.
Election nights are still months away, so I'm not sure what basis we can expect under performance.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Who would question PPP? Their polling has been solid for a while now.
Yellowtail
Member
You're forgetting Nevada which comes third. And Hillary is a lock there against anyone; Mook's ground game and her residual support among Hispanics is too strong (it was the only caucus state Obama couldn't beat her in). Even if she lost IA and NH, she'd have some tailwind going into SC. Biden needs SC be scheduled third, and it's not.
This is all hypothetical because she'll win Iowa. Her team are treating February 1 like D-Day.
why?
Coriolanus
Banned
He, like, explained right in the next line >_>
Implied that it's because bernie appeals to the younger section of the electorate, which is less likely to actually vote.
lol I forgot to put my /s in there. I knew that ^_^
Obama appealed to the younger electorate and won IA though.
I forgot NV was before SC. oops.
User 463088
Banned
Oh lord. I agree with W and Chuck Todd on the same day?
Someone get the holy water. We need an exorcism up in this bitch.
Black Mamba
Member
Bernie supporters are more likely to be young. Young people are more likely to say they'll vote in a poll and then not.
Bernie supporters are more likely to not be primary voters in 2008 even among older Bernie voters. Those that didn't vote in that primary, even among older voters, are less likely to turn out now.
This is actually a problem Trump might have as well. I need to see some polling on this but I have a hunch that a not insignificant amount of support he currently has comes from non usual primary voters. It won't matter if his cushion is big enough, of course, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him underpeform as well.
Back to Bernie, because his supporters are less likely to turn out to vote, if he is behind in any significant way, he will lose by a lot more than predicted. A lot of those people will definitely not turn out. If Bernie is ahead, say 52-46, he has a chance. It might galvanize enough of his supporters if they believe he can really do it. Regardless, he should get less support than predicted.
There is no one more likely in this country to tell you how important this vote coming up is and then not turn out to vote than a college student. And that's where Bernie wins a lot of support.
It's why Democrats underperform most midterm polls, too. They say they'll vote. They'll even believe themselves when they say they'll vote. They just won't because reasons.
Imagine how different this country would be if W Bush won 2000 without the florida nonsense? Imagine if it was at least a 40k vote lead, no recall, no butterfly ballot nonsense, etc. The only reason turnout shot up in '04 and beyond is NOT because Bush won but because of how it went down with every vote mattering and being scrutinized in 2000. Without that Florida moment, the people who don't turn out in Presidential elections still wouldn't turn out like they do today. People started thinking (hey, my vote counts i need to do this) at a higher rate than pre-2000. This moment hasn't happened in primaries, midterms, governor elections, etc. It may never happen.
Without 2000 Florida nonsense, Bush still wins in 2004 and Obama still wins in 2008 but the downballot would have been greatly affected. Less Democrat turnout would have meant never getting 60 seats and no ACA. In a way, Florida 2000 was a good thing IF Bush had to win. Anyway, going on a tangent now...
Black Mamba
Member
1. No one is arguing appealing to the youth is bad and means you can't win. But Obama had support across the board.
2. It was an insane caucus with three very strong candidates. Turnout in every category was huge. It nearly doubled from 4 years prior.
3. The Iraq war was driving politics and while the economy hadn't crashed yet, it was already not doing well for a lot of America.
But to put things in perspective, Obama won 38-30-30. But the polling from Des Moines was 32-25-24. You might say "see, he overperformed," but that's not really the case. They all basically jumped 6 percentage points (and don't forget the MoE) which is a bigger increase for Hillary and Edwards. The other thing to note is he was leading, so like I argued earlier, if Bernie is ahead, then he has a good shot over winning because then his supporters might actually show up. And finally, the "not likely to vote" guys were actually the "others." Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich and Biden combined to get 3% but in the polling had 11% with 6% undecided!
So the non-turnouts were the other candidates. In a close three-way election in probably what most people foresaw as the most important election since Reagan, the turnout for the top 3 was high, among all groups.
On a side note, Obama lost among first time primary voters. 30-25-24 with Edwards winning that one. So Obama's support was actually among the Democratic base.
Put it this way. New young voters, who would eventually become routine base primary voters, voted Obama. Established base voters voted Obama. People not usually primary voters but decided to vote (and were not super young) voted edwards more and split between him and hillary.
Obama won the Iowa Caucus by winning the normal primary voters, not unlikely voters.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Rubio broke Senate rules asking for money in the Senate office building
Black Mamba
Member
Obviously fake. Rubio is never in the Senate.
Hilldawg back over 50%
You can see that, while Sanders is settling a little, Biden supporters (who are really Hillary supporters who were bummed about emails) are the ones really contributing to Hillary's rise. Basically it's Hillary drawing undecideds back to her by showing she actually exists and has positive qualities.
Yellowtail
Member
You can tell emailghazi is running out of steam...
Judicial Watch is now digging up Whitewater documents.
Judicial Watch is now digging up Whitewater documents.
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