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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Black Mamba said:
So the GOP is too scared to answer questions is all I got out of that debate.

Oh, and Jeb! sucks at this. Like, who the fuck did he beat to win in Florida? Kevin McCarthy?
Click to expand...
He lost the first time he ran for Governor.

To a guy with a 70+% disapproval.

In 1994.

At one point, when asked what he would do for African Americans, Bush responded: "It's time to strive for a society where there's equality of opportunity, not equality of results. So I'm going to answer your question by saying: probably nothing."
 
J

jurgen

Member
Black Mamba said:
So the GOP is too scared to answer questions is all I got out of that debate.

Oh, and Jeb! sucks at this. Like, who the fuck did he beat to win in Florida? Kevin McCarthy?
Click to expand...

I don't think they're scared. They displayed the usual "thanks for asking your question, but I'd rather talk about something else" that every single candidate in both parties does and the pairing with the hostility to the CNBC shitshow might have made it appear as fear or bravery (depending on your personal biases).

Jeb's just never been able to recover from being blindsided by Trump. That's just a unpredictable variable wrapped up in the orange peel of a narcissistic twat that a traditional, stiff politician can't roll with. Believe it or not, he was the Bush son that was groomed to be President.

benjipwns said:
He lost the first time he ran for Governor.

To a guy with a 70+% disapproval.

In 1994.
Click to expand...

I think the '94 election was going to be a losing battle for anyone with the last name 'Bush' considering his father recently had his ass tossed out of office.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
In the polls though.
Click to expand...
From February 16th to Trump entering, Jeb! never led anyone in the RCP aggregate by more than three points. He peaked at 17%. (Same as Scott Walker and Rand Paul...and under Chris Christie's peak of 20%.)

He spent all of March and April in a statistical tie with Walker. And then spent all of May and June in one with Walker and Rubio.

From July 23, 2013 to November 23, 2014, Jeb! didn't lead the aggregate once.

The largest lead he's enjoyed over the field was the first two weeks of February 2015 at 16.4% vs. 9.4% (Christie), 9.0% (Huckabee), 8.6% (Paul), 8.4% (Carson), 5.8% (Walker), 5.2% (Cruz).
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
benjipwns said:
From February 16th to Trump entering, Jeb! never led anyone in the RCP aggregate by more than three points. He peaked at 17%. (Same as Scott Walker and Rand Paul...and under Chris Christie's peak of 20%.)

He spent all of March and April in a statistical tie with Walker. And then spent all of May and June in one with Walker and Rubio.

From July 23, 2013 to November 23, 2014, Jeb! didn't lead the aggregate once.

The largest lead he's enjoyed over the field was the first two weeks of February 2015 at 16.4% vs. 9.4% (Christie), 9.0% (Huckabee), 8.6% (Paul), 8.4% (Carson), 5.8% (Walker), 5.2% (Cruz).
Click to expand...

Better than now that Trump got in though. Trump is killing his campaign.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Makai said:
They have the same positions on lots of issues. They're both governors. Both recently came on record to say how much they hate the electorate.
Click to expand...
So...Lindsey Graham?
“How am I losing to these people?” Graham asked Monday on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.

Graham cited Trump’s bombastic style and Carson’s admission that he once tried to stab a classmate during his teenage years.

Or, as the South Carolina senator put it: “On our side, you’ve got the No. 2 guy tried to kill someone at 14, and the No. 1 is high energy and crazy as hell.”

Graham added: “Just look at Donald Trump’s foreign policy. What is it?”
Click to expand...
 
M

Makai

Member
icarus-daedelus said:
I know many people seemingly despised the heavy guiding hand of the moderators (GOD WHERE HAVE I SEEN THAT BEFORE), but my favorite moment of the evening was seeing Rubio confronted on the particulars of his tax plan and having him adamantly refute the reality of mathematics. He isn't the next Barack Obama, that's for damn sure.

"So according to blablabla's calculations, your tax plan gives a [30%] break to the top 1%, and only a [15%] reduction to the middle class. You claim to be championing the middle class. Can you address this?"

"It's about time we got back to focusing on the middle class in this country! My tax plan benefits the middle class the most."
Click to expand...
"What is your biggest weakness?"

Kasich: *passionate speech about how he will Make America Great Again™*
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
icarus-daedelus said:
I know many people seemingly despised the heavy guiding hand of the moderators (GOD WHERE HAVE I SEEN THAT BEFORE), but my favorite moment of the evening was seeing Rubio confronted on the particulars of his tax plan and having him adamantly refute the reality of mathematics. He isn't the next Barack Obama, that's for damn sure.

"So according to blablabla's calculations, your tax plan gives a [30%] break to the top 1%, and only a [15%] reduction to the middle class. You claim to be championing the middle class. Can you address this?"

"It's about time we got back to focusing on the middle class in this country! My tax plan benefits the middle class the most."
Click to expand...
think again lieburals!
http://thefederalist.com/2015/10/28/surprise-john-harwood-lied-about-marco-rubios-tax-plan/
Guess what? Harwood got his facts wrong. Very wrong. Embarrassingly wrong. We know this because Harwood himself admitted as much on Twitter earlier in October:

We also know Harwood was full of it, because the head of the Tax Foundation was forced to publicly correct Harwood on Twitter during the debate. Here’s what Scott Hodge, the president of the Tax Foundation, said about the main beneficiaries of Marco Rubio’s tax plan:

John Harwood refused to issue a correction before the debate audience he deliberately misled. The clock is now ticking on whether he’ll issue any correction at all.
Click to expand...
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
icarus-daedelus said:
I really want to like him, for some reason.
Click to expand...
Because he gives a lot of head?

CSXXfpWUYAA-L0a.jpg


/shamelessly stolen joke
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Let the rise of Rubio begin! #teamrubio #foundingmember

Still hoping Trump trains his sights on him and destroys him. Rubio is the best candidate they have, though that's not saying much.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Black Republican said:
i knew trump wouldnt go after carson, i guess he was told theres no point
Click to expand...

Polari said:
Tactically there's not much gain for Trump in going after Carson now - he's helping keep the establishment candidates at the fringes.
Click to expand...

There's not much of a point. Carson is refusing to engage, which makes attacks on him look really bad.

If it does end up coming down to Trump and Carson (yikes), I think Trump wins the nomination fairly easily. Carson is extremely appealing to evangelicals and he's owning that part of the GOP base. But Trump has a much broader appeal.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
He seems to actually like Carson. Stuff like the wink. Kinda like Sanders and Webb sharing a joke and saying nice things about each other in their debate. Trump went out of his way to include Carson in his "we got the debate changed" thing there at the end.

Romney and Ron Paul didn't really go after each other in 2012 because they got along personally.

He only hit on Romney in like one ad for being a flip-flopper and supporting TARP while also hitting Gingrich and Santorum and he had a bundle of ads ripping those just two, but I don't think he had one with just Romney in it. And Romney personally intervened to let the Paul delegates vote at the RNC and run the lame tribute video about Paul.

17paul-articleLarge-v2.jpg

Once there was a challenge of a softball game from the Ron Paul clan to the Mitt Romney clan. “They didn’t show up,” Mr. Paul says. “We didn’t schedule it. We really razz them about that, ‘You guys chickened out!’ ”

When Mr. Paul’s campaign jet broke down last year in Wolfeboro, N.H., Mr. Romney’s wife, Ann, offered to let Mr. Paul, an aide and one of his granddaughters stay the night at their summer home on Lake Winnipesaukee. When Mr. Romney arrived later, he offered his jet to take them home to Texas. Mr. Paul, not wanting to impose, was grateful but declined both offers.

In a Republican presidential contest known for its angry rivalries, the Romney-Paul relationship stands out for its behind-the-scenes civility. It is a friendship that, by Mr. Paul’s telling, Mr. Romney has worked to cultivate.

...

“He’s been all over the place on some of this stuff,” Mr. Paul said in a recent interview near his Texas home. But he seems to segregate those views from his personal feelings for Mr. Romney, whom he sees as a steady, dignified personality whose devotion to wife and family reflect his own values.

“I talk to Romney more than the rest on a friendly basis,” Mr. Paul said. ”I throw Romney’s name out because he’s made a bigger attempt to do it. The others are sort of just real flat.”

...

The relationship between the two men is rooted partly in the fact that they are veterans of the 2008 nominating fight. And that has translated into growing bonds between their families after dozens of debates, primaries and caucuses.

The candidates’ spouses, Ann Romney and Carol Paul, “know each other better than any of the other wives,” Mr. Paul said. He and Mr. Romney talk “all the time” and “we’ve met all their kids.” Once he telephoned Mr. Romney just as Mr. Romney was calling him. “Sometimes I’m never sure who issued a call,” he said.
Click to expand...
“We like each other!” Romney acknowledged. “We don’t know each other extensively but we have seen each other on the trail couple times. We have introduced our wives to one another. We get along just fine. I think in the case of Senator Santorum, he and I see him in the same light. He portrays himself in one way but his voting record is different. Each of us in our campaign, we do what is best to become the nominee. Ron Paul and I battled aggressively in Maine. We ended up splitting by maybe 150 votes between the two of us in Maine caucuses. We’re doing the same thing in North Dakota soon. We’re out there campaigning for the things we think are most likely to get us nomination.”

“Nobody is going tell Ron Paul what to say,” Romney added. “He says whatever he wants to say.”
Click to expand...
"We have been very forthright about the fact that Ron and Mitt Romney like each other as people," as do their wives, the source said, whereas Santorum has called Paul "disgusting" and Gingrich has called him "stunningly dangerous."
Click to expand...
 
L

lednerg

Member
Kasich is their best bet, but that's not happening. Sucks for them.

I'm glad Graham had a good night at the kids' table. He's completely misguided and wrong about everything, but he does at least come off as being a human person. Trump's the only other one to pull off that feat among the GOP candidates.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Insiders: Bush bombed, Rubio won
In the third GOP debate, the consensus was clear: Jeb Bush blew it and Marco Rubio won the evening.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/insiders-bush-bombed-215324

The former Florida governor was a ghost for most of Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate – and when he spoke up, he was swiftly and effectively counter-punched, most notably by Marco Rubio. As a result, he lost the opportunity to lift his sagging campaign, say insiders surveyed for a special edition of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
Nearly 60 percent of respondents said Bush lost the CNBC debate, botching his comeback opportunity and looking desperate in an attempt to attack Sen. Marco Rubio’s poor attendance record in the Senate. They offered their reactions immediately after watching Wednesday’s prime-time debate in Boulder, Colo.
“[Bush] looked opportunistic and desperate when he went after Senator Rubio on missing votes and after he walked straight into a crushing right hook,” said one Iowa GOP insider. “He also looked weak and ineffective. The exchange diminished an already failing candidacy.”
Added a South Carolina Republican, "Tonight's performance will do nothing to stop the downward spiral that his campaign is experiencing."
Bush's loss was Rubio's gain: Just shy of half of GOP insiders said Rubio won the night, steamrolling his one-time mentor. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in a distant second and third.
Click to expand...
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I echo others in my worry about Rubio in a general election. Don't kid yourself--the guy could go toe-to-toe with Hillary and do well.

People in here keep bringing up that abortion comment, but I don't think that's going to sway many voters.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Plinko said:
I echo others in my worry about Rubio in a general election. Don't kid yourself--the guy could go toe-to-toe with Hillary and do well.

People in here keep bringing up that abortion comment, but I don't think that's going to sway many voters.
Click to expand...
You're about to get disowned by half the people here for saying that, but yeah. Rubio is not to be taken lightly.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Diablos said:
You're about to get disowned by half the people here for saying that, but yeah. Rubio is not to be taken lightly.
Click to expand...

Cheebo said:
Rubio could realistically win the general. Anyone who tells you otherwise is in denial.
Click to expand...

Plinko said:
I echo others in my worry about Rubio in a general election. Don't kid yourself--the guy could go toe-to-toe with Hillary and do well.

People in here keep bringing up that abortion comment, but I don't think that's going to sway many voters.
Click to expand...

So the EC advantage is mitigated by Rubio? Are we looking at a 2000 like close election?

I don't disagree but just wondering.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Based on that debate performance, no, I still don't think I've seen him pushed in a way that a strong Democratic candidate could do.

I mean he did well, in a crowded field with a mix of loons and demagogues.

But I don't really see anything that I would peg as particularly "charismatic."

And faced with questions around what he would do about the Syrian crisis, what he would do instead of the Iranian nuclear deal, how he reconciles his tax plan with reducing US debt - as it would increase deficits at least in the short run, how he would deal with increased Russian aggression, what would he do in the face of a Chinese slowdown's impact on the global economy?

I don't see him faring nearly as well as being asked about his voting absenteeism and being able to handwave it away as liberal media bias.

I mean, in that video linked earlier, he got flustered about being asked whether he thought in retrospect the Iraq war was a mistake.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
shinra-bansho said:
Based on that debate performance, no, I still don't think I've seen him pushed in a way that a strong Democratic candidate could do.

I mean he did well, in a crowded field with a mix of loons and demagogues.
Click to expand...

He's looked good compared to morons and idiots. I'd need to see more out of him before I start panicking.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
So the EC advantage is mitigated by Rubio? Are we looking at a 2000 like close election?

I don't disagree but just wondering.
Click to expand...
I see a Clinton/Rubio matchup looking very similar to 2000 & 2004 in terms of the electoral college (with Clinton having a slight edge). Substituting Florida for Virginia as a swing state however.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
So the EC advantage is mitigated by Rubio? Are we looking at a 2000 like close election?

I don't disagree but just wondering.
Click to expand...

With Rubio as the nominee, I tend to think that this one's going to be closer than 2012 (unless there's some sort of historically significant gender gap phenomenon that develops later on). I still think Hillary would beat Rubio, but that it would be a sub-300EV affair - one where we might be waiting for the Mountain Time Zone states' results to come in.

Since Florida lately is usually decided by a very small margin, even a small nudge could put Florida into the GOP's column, but she still has soooo many routes to 270.
 
E

Eidan

Member
I haven't seen anything from Rubio that I would come close to describing as "impressive". The guy did well in a night filled with morons like Ben Carson and Ted Cruz, and he's getting major props for shutting down a weak and ineffective Bush. Rubio still has all the standard weaknesses of the GOP at large, and honestly, I think Clinton would eat him alive.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
IT BEGINS
After a performance by CNBC moderators that Republicans characterized as both biased and inept, a manager for a top GOP campaign says he will try to organize other campaigns to force the Republican National Committee to make "wholesale change" in the debate process.

In an interview shortly after the debate, Barry Bennett, manager of the Ben Carson campaign, called the session here in Colorado "unfair to everyone" and said the current debate structure should not remain in place. "I think the families need to get together here, because these debates as structured by the RNC are not helping the party," Bennett said. "There's not enough time to talk about your plans, there's no presentation. It's just a slugfest. All we do is change moderators. And the trendline is horrific. So I think there needs to be wholesale change here."

Bennett said he will call Donald Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski Thursday to propose a unified call for change. "Corey and I talk regularly, so I will talk to him," Bennett said. "I will call Frank Sadler (Carly Fiorina's campaign manager), I will call those guys and say listen, we can choose our own network and our own format. We don't need to be led around like prize steers."

"I think at this point, if five or six of us get together, who generate the largest portion of the audience, we can force change," Bennett said.

...

Bennett is particularly unhappy with the length of time given candidates to address issues — he thinks it's way too short — as well as the debate moderators' attempts to spark fights between the candidates.

...

While the debate was still going on, multiple campaigns called RNC chairman Reince Priebus to complain. Recognizing the seriousness of the situation, Priebus prepared a statement for release the instant the debate ended. "The performance by the CNBC moderators was extremely disappointing and did a disservice to their network, our candidates, and voters," Priebus said. "CNBC should be ashamed of how this debate was handled."
Click to expand...
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Cheebo said:
I see a Clinton/Rubio matchup looking very similar to 2000 & 2004 in terms of the electoral college (with Clinton having a slight edge). Substituting Florida for Virginia as a swing state however.
Click to expand...

No doubt Rubio would use the Obama playbook against her about "turning the page". The Clinton team has enough time if they dispatch Bernie early enough to hopefully counter.

A Bernie nomination is a nightmare against Rubio. ugh
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
A Bernie nomination is a nightmare against Rubio. ugh
Click to expand...
And O'Malley wouldn't be?

Bernie's offering of real reform is the only shot left for the party after Hillary's disaster of a campaign, her total bomb in front of the Benghazi panel and likely rash of felony indictments.

The Democrats need Senate and House seats, and gubernatorial and state legislature seats. They can't afford to throw it away on someone who won't have massive coattails like Sanders will.

Bernie would also actually call Rubio and the GOP and their shill cronies to task in the debates unlike Hillary who's probably considering Rubio for VP.

Plus Webb will probably siphon votes from Rubio.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
S

shinra-bansho

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Why is Rubio the best general election candidate?
Click to expand...
I mean this is probably the case. Other option I guess being Kasich, but he's going nowhere and just ended up sounding annoying with his angry guy shtick after the initial salvo. Bush would be here too, at least on paper, if he wasn't so utterly useless.

But I mean that's sort of faint praise, because despite having a ridiculous number of candidates, they're mostly ridiculous candidates. The frontrunner is Donald Trump and the only one close to him is a retired neurosurgeon who thinks gun control caused the holocaust, seems to renege on his plans whenever pressed on them, and let's face it is really only running a campaign to make money.
 
D

danm999

Member
I mean, the fact people are freaking out that Rubio managed to deflect an attack so telegraphed in advance that it was on social media, from a candidate on perpetual life support, whilst being moderated by people incapable of holding candidates to the content of their own websites...

Hey he might do great in the future but don't freak out he cleared an extremely low bar.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Plinko said:
I echo others in my worry about Rubio in a general election. Don't kid yourself--the guy could go toe-to-toe with Hillary and do well.

People in here keep bringing up that abortion comment, but I don't think that's going to sway many voters.
Click to expand...

The abortion comment seals the deal for him. Gender gap is already going to be a major factor, having pro-choice and pro-life candidates only magnifies it.
 
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