Ted Cruz would have won the primaries if he wasn't such a shitbag distasteful candidate for the north. Srsly.
'Wolf is so desperate to make a crisis narrative for the Clinton campaign it's sickening.
Wolf: "What can be done for Hillary to get the vote of young blacks?"
Van Jones:: "Let's not discount the 91-98% of African Americans already voting for Hillary."
Wolf: *blank stare*
I miss Brianna.
'
Can I post this in the OT thread?
Carrot Top talks 2016 presidential politics, and Donald TrumpRelying on the opinion of celebrities outside their area of expertise has always struck me as ridiculous, but even given that, my interest in Larry the Cable Guy's opinion on politics falls somewhere between that of Paris Hilton's and Jake's from State Farm. It's hard to think of anyone less qualified to weigh in on politics than a "fake redneck persona" comedian. Can we get Carrot Top to offer a rebuttal?
"He does create conversation. I mean, he really gets people talking, I think he's great for politics."
'
Can I post this in the OT thread?
Hilary's presidency is actually part 2 of the 1000 years of darkness. Larry didn't ever seem particularly insightful though.
Wolf is so desperate to make a crisis narrative for the Clinton campaign it's sickening.
Wolf: "What can be done for Hillary to get the vote of young blacks?"
Van Jones:: "Let's not discount the 91-98% of African Americans already voting for Hillary."
Wolf: *blank stare*
I miss Brianna.
I thought Ted Cruz manhandled Trump on multiple occasions during the final debates, and I'd expect Hillary to do the same. The difference will be audiences. It's clear the republican primary crowd did not care about conservatism, principles, or just about anything else: they were solely concerned with who was going to punish brown people the most, who was the "strongest," and who appealed to their most core white resentments. That's not how general elections view things. All of the things that made Trump win the primary debates will hurt him in a general debate. The arrogance, the blatant ignorance, the inability to answer any questions in detail, the anger, etc.
If I was Trump's camp I'd attend the first debate and be prepared to skip the second one, which is a town hall. While there's a chance Hillary could be tripped up by a basic question at a town hall, there's a far higher chance that Trump will simply look terrible at one. His craving to be a showman and the smartest guy in the room will backfire and I wouldn't be stunned if he insults a voter who asks a question lol.
holly crap, she is having a season allergy attack and the Trump nuts will start talking about the coughing
Have any of you all been polled this year? I've gotten Survey Monkey and Google, but that's it. No calls, but I'm in OK. I don't think I'll ever get one.
Have any of you all been polled this year? I've gotten Survey Monkey and Google, but that's it. No calls, but I'm in OK. I don't think I'll ever get one.
I take it 1st debate will likely beat Kennedy Vs Nixon?
The 3rd debate is going to be Trump's worse performance. Trump is gong to bomb the 3rd debate. He knows nothing about FP going up against the wizard of FP. It's not a fair fight at all.
I got lost on my way to the Labor Day parade the NH Dems had invited me to in Milford today... it seemed like kind of an odd place to have a parade, anyways, I mean Milford, really? Who goes there? Anyways, I saw more Trump signs than Hillary signs while driving around, but more than either of them, I saw lots of signs for state legislature candidates that I had never heard of... I think people are going to try to focus on the down-ballot races harder this year.
MANILA, Philippines Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has warned President Barack Obama not to question him about extrajudicial killings, or son of a bitch, I will swear at you when they meet in Laos during a regional summit.
Duterte said Monday before flying to Laos that he is a leader of a sovereign country and is answerable only to the Filipino people.
The comment came after a reporter asked him how hell explain the extrajudicial killings in the Philippines, where more than 2,000 suspected drug sellers and users have been killed since Duterte launched a war on drugs after taking office on June 30.
"Clearly he's a colorful guy," Obama said when asked about his remarks at a press conference in China to end the G-20 summit.
Obama said he had heard about the comment and told his aides to determine whether it would still be productive to hold a face-to-face meeting.
"I always want to make sure if I'm having a meeting, it's productive," he added.
"We will always assert the need to have due process," while fighting the issues of crime and drug trafficking, the president continued.
I really don't get this young, black voters not liking Hillary narrative. She's winning like 90+% of AA voters. It seems like such an obviously forced narrative.
Thank god for Van pushing back on it hard.
^ I understand how polling works, thanks. I still think if she is winning 90%+ of registered or likely AA voters then it's a manufactured controversy.
ITT: people do not understand polls. If a poll's headline says 90% of blacks tend to vote Clinton, 4% Trump, 6% other (random example), what it means is 90% of black people who intend to vote. Suppose that black turnout drops by 5%, in equal portions from Clinton and Trump. Now, even though Clinton has 90% of the black vote, that's a few million less votes than it would have been otherwise.
What's more is that we have no way of knowing whether this is happening. It is very difficult to estimate turnout rates accurately and most pollsters just assume each demographic will turnout at the same rate it did last time - which is why Obama usually beat the polls in his 2008 run, because black voters saw unprecedented turnout. If enthusiasm for Clinton among black voters is lower than it was for Obama, then polling is probably overestimating her position slightly - probably not by enough to change the state of the race, thankfully, but still something that the Democrats will be worried about, especially with respect to the races downstream.
But the bulk of his 20-minute remarks before UAW members were about Hillary Clinton.
Its fashionable to say, like President Obama said, that shes the best qualified person to be president. That ought to be the threshold, he said. But you should vote for her because it will mean more jobs, higher incomes, a more inclusive society, a society where its easier to vote not harder. A place where we are stronger together. I want you to get out there and make that argument.
As for the ongoing controversy over Hillary Clintons e-mails, which were sent and received on a private server, Bill Clinton said, I think its interesting that when all those Republicans who have endorsed Hillary, you just remember when somebody talks about the emails, the overwhelming majority have endorsed her because they trust her with the national security. They know whats important and whats not.
The visit from Bill Clinton comes two days after Trump ventured into an African-American church in a bid to gain the votes of black Detroiters. His brief remarks at Great Faith Ministries International Church in Detroit included nods to the black community with references to past discrimination and how proud he was to be the nominee of the Republican Party that counted Abraham Lincoln as one of its members.
Bill Clinton, however, told reporters that his family has a proven record that cant be ignored, including her efforts in Flint to address the public health crisis over lead contaminated water. She set up a campaign office in Flint and asked her supporters to donate to the Community Foundation of Greater Flint.
If we have to do something else to counter it, (Trumps visit to Detroit) then you assume the entire African American community is suffering from amnesia after what Hillary did for Flint. The work I did for Detroit to try and help Shinola and helping the mayor develop a mortgage program so people could move in, he said. And remember, Hillarys first job out of law school required her to go to South Carolina to get African-American children out of adult prisons and to go to Alabama to stop segregated academies from getting illegal tax exemptions. Weve got a life time of record and a lot of specific commitments that show that if she wins, shell be all in for jobs in Michigan.
The annual Labor Day festivities are geared toward honoring the accomplishments of working men and women and have long been a mainstay of Democratic politicians. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, U.S. Sens. Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters and most of the states Democratic members of Congress marched with Clinton. And there were few signs of any organized protest against Clinton.
Tim Zamecki, a Detroit resident and member of the Michigan Council of Carpenters local 687, got a chance to talk briefly with Clinton, telling him, The best years I had as a carpenter was when he was in office and that I hope those times were coming back and he said they are.
Didn't that South Carolina poll show that it's currently white people who are less enthusiastic about voting while black people and Latinos are more excited to vote because of how much they hate Trump?
Do I want to poop my pants or do I want somebody else to poop my pants?'
Nvm I can't seem to find a part about voter enthusiasm by race in the SC poll.No idea, haven't seen that one. I'd be interested to see the methodology; it's incredibly difficult to predict turnout rates accurately.
ITT: people do not understand polls. If a poll's headline says 90% of blacks tend to vote Clinton, 4% Trump, 6% other (random example), what it means is 90% of black people who intend to vote. Suppose that black turnout drops by 5%, in equal portions from Clinton and Trump. Now, even though Clinton has 90% of the black vote, that's a few million less votes than it would have been otherwise.
What's more is that we have no way of knowing whether this is happening. It is very difficult to estimate turnout rates accurately and most pollsters just assume each demographic will turnout at the same rate it did last time - which is why Obama usually beat the polls in his 2008 run, because black voters saw unprecedented turnout. If enthusiasm for Clinton among black voters is lower than it was for Obama, then polling is probably overestimating her position slightly - probably not by enough to change the state of the race, thankfully, but still something that the Democrats will be worried about, especially with respect to the races downstream.
In Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia, 70 percent of African-Americans under 35 said they were backing Mrs. Clinton, 8 percent indicated support for Mr. Trump and 18 percent said they were backing another candidate or did not know whom they would support. In 2012, Mr. Obama won 92 percent of black voters under 45 nationally, according to exit polling.
And it compares under-35 with under-45? Those are different numbers.So, this is the guts of the article? You can't really infer anything from these numbers. They're comparing polls from 4 states to exits nationwide. She's not winning young AA like Obama? No shit.
What the hell does this mean?
And it compares under-35 with under-45? Those are different numbers.
#hackinghillary
Poor thing can't hide all those health problems.
On real clear politics 4 way average Clinton is only up 3%, and she's only up 4% on the head to head. Seems like things are tightening. Should we be worried?
Obama won't meet with Duterte.
Obama won't meet with Duterte.
Here in NH we get called like every other night. Sometimes multiple times a night. One thing I've started doing is holding pollsters to their word when they say "this will only take 3 minutes" and then timing them and hanging up once the timer hits 3 minutes.Have any of you all been polled this year? I've gotten Survey Monkey and Google, but that's it. No calls, but I'm in OK. I don't think I'll ever get one.