PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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What else is one supposed to infer from that she's coughing herself on a downward spiral against genius Trump?
She'll take a lozenge and get off her stool and the spiral will stop?
 
banefirelord said:
Anyone got any tips for not feeling constantly stressed and sick about this election or is that just something I gotta live with for another two months/four-to-eight years if everything really goes tits up?
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Think of us overseas with no control over the situation watching in fear...
 
NBC's attempt to balance things continues.


Trump's conviction of pay-to-play crimes = conspiracy theories about Clitnon. Same time spend on each topic.
 
banefirelord said:
Anyone got any tips for not feeling constantly stressed and sick about this election or is that just something I gotta live with for another two months/four-to-eight years if everything really goes tits up?
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Take a break from it. Play some video games. The race is going to oscillate like this.
 
shinra-bansho said:
What else is one supposed to infer from that she's coughing herself on a downward spiral against genius Trump?
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That the race is going to tighten again.
That Trump managed to climb out of a historic low.
That the landslide narrative is not appropriate anymore.
That taking the senate/downticket may not be as likely as people thought just a couple weeks earlier.
That there indeed was a pivot, despite the fact that everybody laughed it off a couple weeks back.
That people should go out and vote.
That Hillary's campaign could not keep their momentum after the convention going.
Etc
 
I'm not going to freak and we shouldn't freak out over every single poll that doesn't go our way. Just trust the process that Clintons team is putting in work.

We can't control things out of our hands. Shit is going to happen and things may widen or tighten even more leading up to the debates
 
Who is talking about a landslide? What month is this?

I have been saying for a long time, that I told you so, that things that people who have watched elections before will happen.

There may have been some hope for a massive repudiation of the racist bigot. But that died well over a month ago, and we've had daily diablosing.
 
Ecotic said:
Yeah that's exactly it. It's the unfortunate reality that if Trump isn't falling on his face then the emails and foundation stories will dominate the news.
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hopefully once the daily screw ups by trump slows down (and thus the clicks for his stories), the news networks will actually start publishing stories about his past, you would think they have a treasure trove of stories ready to go, and that its just the day to day BS he says overrode them.
 
Apparently Trump is giving a speech about veterans today. Clinton campaign has a preemptive ad out. I wish we could see clearly in real time how effective their ads are or not given the spending that is going into them.
 
shinra-bansho said:
Who is talking about a landslide? What month is this?

I have been saying for a long time, that I told you so, that things that people who have watched elections before will happen.
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Really? Just google "Hillary landslide" and search for news. You will find plenty.

Also, you're not the be all, end all when it comes to political debate/opinions. Just because you said there will not be a landslide, does not mean the rest of the world has said the same thing.

The condescension in here is incredible.

darkstar0155 said:
What pivot? Maybe in polling and news coverage, but definitely not as him as a politician/person/policies
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"Deport all" to "deport the bad ones".
 
watershed said:
Apparently Trump is giving a speech about veterans today. Clinton campaign has a preemptive ad out. I wish we could see clearly in real time how effective their ads are or not given the spending that is going into them.
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Have there been any indications that their insane ad buy advantage has moved the needle? Asking seriously
 
Bye. See you the next time you feel the need to come in a thread and tell everyone in it how wrong they are about things they haven't been saying. And then get huffy about people pointing out no one's saying that and disagreeing that there's been any notable pivot from a man who tweets proudly about a black woman dying as proof that people should vote for him.
 
I'm curious, from a political strategy point of view, at what point is Clinton going to start a new approach than just letting Trump run the headlines? Its been pretty much the same from her for awhile now and its not working well.
 
bangbang i'm a timpani said:
I'm curious, from a political strategy point of view, at what point is Clinton going to start a new approach than just letting Trump run the headlines? Its been pretty much the same from her for awhile now and its not working well.
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IT WAS AUGUST

Are a lot of people REALLY really young to be asking such a repetitive and terrible question? Or was it the early conventions that threw people off?
 
bangbang i'm a timpani said:
I'm curious, from a political strategy point of view, at what point is Clinton going to start a new approach than just letting Trump run the headlines? Its been pretty much the same from her for awhile now and its not working well.
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I would slightly panic if she doesn't open a bigger gap after the surrogate blitzkrieg this month.

But she has a better ground game, in both quantity and experience.

But too much HOPIUM can kill you.
 
nature boy said:
I would slightly panic if she doesn't open a bigger gap after the surrogate blitzkrieg this month.

But she has a better ground game, in both quantity and experience.

But too much HOPIUM can kill you.
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does the ground game even matter?

i've seen it as an explanation behind the possible "floor/ceilings" that trump/clinton have maybe hit, maybe giving hillary a 1/2pt advantage
 
Vilix said:
I think the fact that Clinton is so boring has something to do with it as well.
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Oh for sure. Sound, reasonable policy is the most boring thing to listen to. The DNC was the only big stage she needed to be on before the debates. She gains nothing by doing anything outside of local campaign stuff. There is nothing she could ever say or do that would ever give her more votes than the shit Trump has said. The debates are the one exception. It could go either way, but she has the very real chance to completely unravel and humiliate him on the biggest stage yet (the ratings are going to be insane) or if shit blows up in her face, expect to see a lot more of her. No reason to enact plan B yet. Some CNN poll is not panic mode. A disaster first debate would be.
 
bangbang i'm a timpani said:
does the ground game even matter?

i've seen it as an explanation behind the possible "floor/ceilings" that trump/clinton have maybe hit, maybe giving hillary a 1/2pt advantage
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normally I would say the ground game only moves the needle 1/2pts because both sides usually have at least some type of competent ground game. This election? I could see it causing a 3+ pt difference solely because Trump's ground game is non existent. I have no research to back any of that up, but its what im guessing.
 
bangbang i'm a timpani said:
I'm curious, from a political strategy point of view, at what point is Clinton going to start a new approach than just letting Trump run the headlines? Its been pretty much the same from her for awhile now and its not working well.
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I'd rather give Trump the spotlight, he'll fuck up again. The only reason his ugly comments on black crime and Dwyane Wade's cousin didn't garner big headlines is because in comparison to previous gaffes they were tame. He's being graded on a curve, it's the reality. Sooner or later he'll hang himself again.

Trump's support largely hovers around 40-44%. Hillary is falling, Trump isn't really gaining. The campaign is fine IMO. If anything it says more about her as a candidate. People are eventually going to settle and realize she's their only choice, like it or not.

Chill out bros. I'd rather have an emboldened Trump, who thinks he's winning. He always fucks it up.
 
Three polls came out -- Clinton +6, Clinton +1, Trump +2. Pretty consistent with Clinton being ahead by less than 5 points. Not ideal but there's still a ways to go.

I'm glad WaPo did 50 states even if the polling window isn't perfect because at least it can help show what's in play and what's safe. Demonstrates Trump's weaknesses everywhere, even in GOP strongholds.

I continue to be a little worried that it seems like we're polling two different universes rather than just getting varying looks at the same universe. Distribution should be normal but it feels two-humped instead. That suggests methodological problems somewhere.

If Trump is really that close we should expect to see him lead in more state polls, especially PA/IA/OH. Not seeing those yet.
 
Lol, we get three polls today and PoliGAF focuses on the one negative one. Lmao, never change.

The Keepin it 1600 crew has been saying since the convention that the race would tighten and probably end between 5-7%. We are on track. The only discouraging thing in my mind is that Trump's pay for play story hasn't received any traction, but what can you do. As Borgia said, Trump's being graded on a curve which has it's benefits.
 
Plinko said:
Related to Roger Ailes? This seems really bizarre timing if it doesn't have to do with the Ailes stuff.
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Well, yeah, of course. Gretchen just won a $20 million settlement that includes a public apology for extended sexual harassment. Of course she's leaving. Wouldn't you?
 
So I'm glad that only one of the polls had trump in the black rather than more, but it is still a shrink from the lead that Clinton had before.

Does anyone have an explanation for the bump?
 
Bowdz said:
Lol, we get three polls today and PoliGAF focuses on the one negative one. Lmao, never change.

The Keepin it 1600 crew has been saying since the convention that the race would tighten and probably end between 5-7%. We are on track. The only discouraging thing in my mind is that Trump's pay for play story hasn't received any traction, but what can you do. As Borgia said, Trump's being graded on a curve which has it's benefits.
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Pretty much this. I'm not concerned at all to be honest. Now if three or more polls show him with the lead then I'll start to panic.

I kind of want polls to be close to prevent complacency.
 
CNN poll- Clinton wins non-whites by 71-18, whites with college by 49-36 still down 1. CNN expecting a very white uneducated electorate.
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Saw this on Twitter and thought you all would like to take a look. Also this CNN/ORC had Trump +5 at one point in July. It seems to be a bit friendlier than most national polls.
 
Zukkoyaki said:
Saw this on Twitter and thought you all would like to take a look. Also this CNN/ORC had Trump +5 at one point in July. It seems to be a bit friendlier than most national polls.
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Wait, that poll actually shows Trump losing 4 points since July?

That is kind of a better lede.
 
Clinton needs to go on the attack and get her responses in order and actually get on the trail and in the news cycle or she's going to be Kerry'd.

And frankly, even if she does win, I'll blame her campaign and her if complacency and some stupid "running out the clock" strategy causes a lesser win that doesn't claim back the Senate or come close to getting the House - she'll deserve every legislative failure she gets in her term if her and her team take that course.
 
The only reason we're talking about the CNN is 1) is one of the big 5 polls for the CPD and 2) last one came out in July. We get NBC/SurveyMonkey every week and with the Franklin Pierce University poll it's difficult to evaluate it without cross tabs.
 
Zukkoyaki said:
Saw this on Twitter and thought you all would like to take a look. Also this CNN/ORC had Trump +5 at one point in July. It seems to be a bit friendlier than most national polls.
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Yes, I don't know if was that specific poll but CNN had the only poll this summer that really concerned me, a six-point swing where she lost all of her points to Trump. I think it swung back in their next poll.

It's one of the big polls and it's not trash. But it does seem swingy and pessimistic (to us) in its demographics.
 
Is anyone else seeing an increase of confederate flags (and Trump Pence signs) on peoples lawns and trucks lately?

Or have I been traveling through the boonies (non-twin cities, MN) way too much lately?
 
I see no reason to worry... other (much bigger) polls show Clinton ahead by 6%, and the average is clearly still in her favor by 3.3%.

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