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[Omiee]

I'v been a lurker since the 2012 election and i have to say i am very disapointed. I'm from the Netherlands myself and i'v always felt a kind of love for the USA and its culture. But i just can not believe a person like Trump is actually getting 40+% of the vote. I'm sure he won't win looking at the electoral map but its insane than he is getting this much support.

Would you imagine if Barrack Obama did half the things this idiot did? He would'nt even get 10% of the vote.

 

[teiresias]

not happy with the CNN poll. Honestly for the past 2 weeks all you hear about is Trump.

"I'm running out the clock"

Said the hare to the tortoise.

 

[gutter_trash]

not happy with the CNN poll. Honestly for the past 2 weeks all you hear about is Trump.

3 debates left

 

[Zona]

Oh look, The Upshot interactive thingy now includes Texas.
Hmm, lets see what happens if you give Hillary a single one of the states on this little interactive chart.

Ah, it's obviously time to Panic!

 

[Owzers]

This CNN interview with a retired Brigadier General who came out for Trump along with 80 others, the spin,, it's insane.

Don't worry, Trump has grown since saying all those idiotic things he said that i don't agree with.

edit: Oh, he's crazy. That explains it.

 

[fantomena]

A lot of newspapers here are writing about that CNN poll.

From the comments section.

"Out of 300 mill people, those are the candidates they choosed. Sad."

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

This CNN interview with a retired Brigadier General who came out for Trump along with 80 others, the spin,, it's insane.

Watching that right now lol. This is the worst endorsement I've heard.

 

[nature boy]

Need some more Texas polls.

(Yes I know it's a longshot, but the WaPo poll has a 5000+ Texas sample).

 

[Chezzymann]

I see no reason to worry... other (much bigger) polls show Clinton ahead by 6%, and the average is clearly still in her favor by 3.3%.

It's still clearly tightening which could be worrisome if this continues

 

[pigeon]

A lot of newspapers here are writing about that CNN poll.

From the comments section.

"Out of 300 mill people, those are the candidates they choosed. Sad."

It's considered rude to repost your own comments.

 

[gutter_trash]

Texas is now a toss-up? yay!

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

NOOOO Gen you were in the clear, he went off the edge lol.


Lmao he's talked about supporting Trump now he's coming out against his outreach. Terrible endorsement.

 

[TestOfTide]

I see no reason to worry... other (much bigger) polls show Clinton ahead by 6%, and the average is clearly still in her favor by 3.3%.

Wasnt the LATimes poll showing Trump ahead last time? Looking at that image Trump lost ground according to that pollster.

 

[Omiee]

This CNN interview with a retired Brigadier General who came out for Trump along with 80 others, the spin,, it's insane.

Don't worry, Trump has grown since saying all those idiotic things he said that i don't agree with.

edit: Oh, he's crazy. That explains it.

It's all a fucking joke, Trump is blaming the media yet they are kissing his ass and acting tough on clinton. Trump blames media when all the polls showed him losing now he is posting polls of all these outlets he blames of being biased.

 

[Resident_UA]

I'v been a lurker since the 2012 election and i have to say i am very disapointed. I'm from the Netherlands myself and i'v always felt a kind of love for the USA and its culture. But i just can not believe a person like Trump is actually getting 40+% of the vote. I'm sure he won't win looking at the electoral map but its insane than he is getting this much support.

Would you imagine if Barrack Obama did half the things this idiot did? He would'nt even get 10% of the vote.

To be fair Netherlands also vote stupid sometimes. EU Association Agreement with Ukraine didn't pass in Netherlands because people had no idea what they were voting for.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Is anyone else seeing an increase of confederate flags (and Trump Pence signs) on peoples lawns and trucks lately?

Or have I been traveling through the boonies (non-twin cities, MN) way too much lately?

I noticed a huge increase in Trump yard signs this weekend compared to what I normally see.

Spoiler

On an unrelated note, I went to visit family in Southern Indiana over the Labor Day weekend.

 

[Owzers]

Watching that right now lol. This is the worst endorsement I've heard.

The media would have you believe black people are all on wellfare, etc etc.

When he says the media, he's confusing Trump's "what the hell do you have to lose?" speech that he say on cable tv and is blaming the media for that?

 

[fantomena]

It's considered rude to repost your own comments.

If somebody hadn't written it, I would.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Wasnt the LATimes poll showing Trump ahead last time? Looking at that image Trump lost ground according to that pollster.

It's tied as of today. It's one of those funky daily polls that tend to get more attention than they should.

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

Wasnt the LATimes poll showing Trump ahead last time? Looking at that image Trump lost ground according to that pollster.

Yes, Trump was at +3 a few days ago, now at +0.7% (which is rounded down for some reason). The poll is daily, and it does swing up to a few percentages each day. (So it could again be Trump +3 tomorrow)

 

[Clefargle]

I'v been a lurker since the 2012 election and i have to say i am very disapointed. I'm from the Netherlands myself and i'v always felt a kind of love for the USA and its culture. But i just can not believe a person like Trump is actually getting 40+% of the vote. I'm sure he won't win looking at the electoral map but its insane than he is getting this much support.

Would you imagine if Barrack Obama did half the things this idiot did? He would'nt even get 10% of the vote.

Hai from Limburg fellow Dutch GAF member!

Spoiler

not really Dutch, I'm American but I live here

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

300 million people to choose from and they nominate a frickin former First Lady, US senator and Secretsry of State, jesus christ america

 

[Iolo]

Need some more Texas polls.

(Yes I know it's a longshot, but the WaPo poll has a 5000+ Texas sample).

Does any of this, other than Florida, look plausible though?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

300 million people to choose from and they nominate a frickin former First Lady, US senator and Secretsry of State, jesus christ america

I despise this stock phrase I see every day.

I'd love to use it on them since they'd understand how decisions and things happen rather than just bianary choices:
Millions of great jobs and they work in that one?
Millions of great women/men and they choose that one?
Millions of great homes and they chose that one?

 

[gcubed]

300 million people to choose from and they nominate a frickin former First Lady, US senator and Secretsry of State, jesus christ america

It's a lazy argument made by idiots

 

[Maxim726X]

Lol, we get three polls today and PoliGAF focuses on the one negative one. Lmao, never change.

The Keepin it 1600 crew has been saying since the convention that the race would tighten and probably end between 5-7%. We are on track. The only discouraging thing in my mind is that Trump's pay for play story hasn't received any traction, but what can you do. As Borgia said, Trump's being graded on a curve which has it's benefits.

? How do you figure 5-7?

It's at 2-3 right now. There is reason to be concerned.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

300 million people to choose from and they nominate a frickin former First Lady, US senator and Secretsry of State, jesus christ america

100 million posts to make on NeoGAF and this is the one you make!?

50 million Elvis fans, and they're wrong!?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Also Jack Remington writes for Vox now

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/6/12732252/against-transparency

But there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the desire for private conversation — even among public officials. It’s simply a reality of the modern world that much private conversation takes place through digitally transmitted text. Outside of the specific context of American politics, nobody thinks these messages should be treated socially or legally as the equivalent of official memos rather than phone calls or oral conversations. It’s time to let common sense reign and let government personnel communicate with each other through the medium of their choosing with a presumption of privacy.

I generally agree with a lot of his points as someone who dose interact with public figures, its annoying to not be able to use a tool because it could be twisted. And I rarely see anything that is actually revealed by these emails besides OPTICS!

I like FOIA but what's in the public interest needs to be better defined, information overload makes it easier to twist something fast and then nobody pays attention to the follow up clarification

does anyone know if whatsapp/telegram messages are FOIAable since they are encrypted

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Tim Kaine is giving a speech on national security in North Carolina today. He's on the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committee

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...473171643296&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.f43cad86ca99 (scroll down a bit)

 

[Retro]

Anyone got any tips for not feeling constantly stressed and sick about this election or is that just something I gotta live with for another two months/four-to-eight years if everything really goes tits up?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html#explore-paths

This used to have states like Pennsylvania and Virginia on it. Now it's got freakin' TEXAS on there as a swing state, and they've narrowed Trump's paths to victory to just one. At this point, Trump has to win every single state on that chart to win. If Hillary wins all of the states she's expected to win in and any single state on that list, she wins.... and some joker put Colorado on there (which every poll has leaning towards her).

The math is not in Trump's favor and we've got 10 weeks and the debates to get through. History has shown he's incapable of keeping his foot in his mouth for more than a few days and his past debate performances are just that; performances. He's going to get on a stage and make Hillary Clinton look like the most Presidential President who ever Presidented.

 

[Grief.exe]

If somebody hadn't written it, I would.

What are your arguments for not liking Hillary?

 

[nature boy]

Does any of this, other than Florida, look plausible though?

With a lower turnout from the Republican base and a good ground game, who knows? Polls shows it's closer than in 2012. (Re: Texas)

Wisconsin and Michigan are going to be single-digit victories, in Florida Trump needs low Latino turnout to even stand a chance, not expecting much of Arizona TBH.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

This is exactly what happens

http://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2016/09/capalino-story-105186

There is a story in politico ny about the mayor of New York's relationship with lobbiest which is a great story to look into but it is filled with these little bits of email that reveal nothing

“Will do,” Gray replied. “In my opinion you have the hardest job in government (politics), I absolutely appreciate your level of communication.”

“I worked for bdb for 8 years,” said Gray, referring to de Blasio. “I know some of ups and downs folks face over there well ”

“I finally had my weekly FLONYC meeting this past week and pitched tour AND food bank meeting and they were amenable to both,” she wrote to Gray on April 2, 2014. “Things move VERY slowly through that team but I will keep pushing that.”

On Jan. 14, 2014, Capalino and Company executive vice president George Fontas wrote a de Blasio aide asking for the personal cell phone number of his boss, chief of intergovernmental affairs Emma Wolfe, to help deal with a forthcoming news article in the New York Times. Within half an hour, the aide delivered both Wolfe’s cell and Wolfe’s email address, adding, “Feel free to cc and me and I can try to expedite.”

On the morning of June 11, 2014, Capalino himself emailed James Patchett, a top official in the de Blasio administration, seeking a 15-minute call to register his, and his client Silverstein Properties’, “strong dismay” with a city decision to "reject the proposed residential segmentation” at the company's tower under development at 10 Freedom Place.

and then you get shit like this

“He would be grateful for an opportunity to discuss your administration’s goals in the international tourism arena and discuss how Wanda may be able to help,” Capalino wrote. “For example, Wanda is in a position to promote New York City in a very significant way to millions of potential Chinese tourists and possibly capitalize major investments in mixed-use projects that could create affordable housing.”

What he did not mention was Dalian Wanda’s pending partnership with China Vanke, one of the companies involved in Slate’s purchase of the Rivington House.

That second paragraph is pure speculation based on nothing, the emails contain little that the reporter is forced to invent a conspiracy based on the fact there's nothing!

 

[Crayons]

100 million posts to make on NeoGAF and this is the one you make!?

50 million Elvis fans, and they're wrong!?

all these games

and you still chose to play me

 

[Box of Kittens]

Does any of this, other than Florida, look plausible though?

You could believe most of these results individually depending on the state of the race, but simultaneously? There is no universe in which Clinton is +2 in Colorado and +1 in Texas at the same time.

 

[pigeon]

Also Jack Remington writes for Vox now

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/6/12732252/against-transparency



I generally agree with a lot of his points as someone who dose interact with public figures, its annoying to not be able to use a tool because it could be twisted. And I rarely see anything that is actually revealed by these emails besides OPTICS!

I like FOIA but what's in the public interest needs to be better defined, information overload makes it easier to twist something fast and then nobody pays attention to the follow up clarification

does anyone know if whatsapp/telegram messages are FOIAable since they are encrypted

"Remington was right" is a pretty classic Yglesias slatepitch.

This is also a great quote:

But we should be cautioned by James Madison’s opinion that “no Constitution would ever have been adopted by the convention if the debates had been public.”

His view, which seems sensible, is that public or recorded debates would have been simply exercises in position-taking rather than deliberation, with each delegate playing to his base back home rather than working toward a deal.

Madison is always a good guiding voice in protecting democracy from populism.

I also think Yglesias's core point here that incentives are totally wrong is well taken. Frankly, if we really want to preserve the government decision-making process, we should record government phone calls and meetings too. Except that then all decisions will happen in private "unofficial" meetings and elevators.

Alternately the government will just start Snapchatting everything.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Anyone got any tips for not feeling constantly stressed and sick about this election or is that just something I gotta live with for another two months/four-to-eight years if everything really goes tits up?

There's a few things that should ease you a bit

- Election polls go up and down all the time and always have and always will. 2012 had some especially scary weeks. The fact that, at best, Trump is only tying Hillary is a good sign.

- Based on just the economy and the popularity of Obama, it would have been a safe guess at the Democrat winning this year, no matter who the candidates were. That hasn't changed. The economy and the current president are decent indicators of who the next president will be.

- State polls still show barely any path at all for Trump, and those haven't shifted as much as national polls.

 

[Dierce]

I think the CNN poll is entirely based on their own media narrative. Since orange turd has been getting most of the airtime they assume that the white electorate that heavily favors him will be more enthused and therefore republicans will show up in masses. It is all assumptions at this point but the problem with this is that it also means that orange turd will be able to raise more money and continue deceiving minorities into thinking he might not be all that bad. Keep in mind that he doesn't truly expect minorities to vote for him but rather sit out the election believing that either outcome won't make a difference.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I think the CNN poll is entirely based on their own media narrative. Since orange turd has been getting most of the airtime they assume that the white electorate that heavily favors him will be more enthused and therefore republicans will show up in masses. It is all assumptions at this point but the problem with this is that it also means that orange turd will be able to raise more money and continue deceiving minorities into thinking he might not be all that bad.

CNN's poll is one of the more significant ones but now that you mention it, it does seem to ebb and flow with the current narrative. It had Clinton +4 in June... then the FBI stuff happened along with the RNC and Trump when +5... then the DNC had Clinton +8... now the race has tightened and CNN has been desperately pushing a pivot which results in a +2 Trump.

It's probably purely coincidental but it is a nifty observation nonetheless.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

"Remington was right" is a pretty classic Yglesias slatepitch.

This is also a great quote:

Madison is always a good guiding voice in protecting democracy from populism.

I also think Yglesias's core point here that incentives are totally wrong is well taken. Frankly, if we really want to preserve the government decision-making process, we should record government phone calls and meetings too. Except that then all decisions will happen in private "unofficial" meetings and elevators.

Alternately the government will just start Snapchatting everything.

I just don't know how emails or at least many of these emails serve a public interest.

I think Yglesias kinda doesn't know how FOIA work in that a lot of these emails are protected. I like FOIA but wouldn't mind a few more automatic exemptions that a judge would have to rule to overturn

 

[User 463088]

Some of y'all are a mess. Sad!

 

[Aaron Strife]

CNN's poll has a +4 Republican electorate.

In the past five elections, only once did Democrats not outnumber Republicans, and that was in 2004 when they were tied.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

CNN's poll is one of the more significant ones but now that you mention it, it does seem to ebb and flow with the current narrative. It had Clinton +4 in June... then the FBI stuff happened along with the RNC and Trump when +5... then the DNC had Clinton +8... now the race has tightened and CNN has been desperately pushing a pivot which results in a +2 Trump.

It's probably purely coincidental but it is a nifty observation nonetheless.

Its more likely the polls follow the cycle. The leader gets worse news they go down the other gets bad stories they go down, etc.

 

[Rikudo]

If somebody hadn't written it, I would.

Do you ever get tired of shitposting? Do you enjoy looking like someone that doesn't understand US politics/elections? Because you do this a lot.

 

[studyguy]

Didn't even read any polls this weekend, spent it all away camping and with family. Come back to see some people wetting the bed over some CNN poll and a coughing fit. Come on.

 

[TestOfTide]

I think the CNN poll is entirely based on their own media narrative. Since orange turd has been getting most of the airtime they assume that the white electorate that heavily favors him will be more enthused and therefore republicans will show up in masses. It is all assumptions at this point but the problem with this is that it also means that orange turd will be able to raise more money and continue deceiving minorities into thinking he might not be all that bad. Keep in mind that he doesn't truly expect minorities to vote for him but rather sit out the election believing that either outcome won't make a difference.

Well to be fair, that CNN poll apparently found that among likely voters it's Trump's side that has more enthusiasm.

Obviously the response would be to wonder if that is because their likely voter model has more white people since it's very obvious that most of the white people that wouldn't be disgusted by this election would be Trump fans.

Still, we need to have non-white demographics excited to vote this election and we need all those antiTrump college educated white people to actually vote this election if we want to take house seats from suburban districts.

 

[whyamihere]

It's just switching to LVs from RVs. It doesn't seem like much has changed that we didn't already know re: RVs. I wouldn't get too worked up about it. That's why you have GOTV efforts to turn those RVs into LVs.

 

[nature boy]

Really hate this logic:

Trump's best chance for altering the race lies in the presidential debates, which begin September 26 and will serve as critical tests of his temperament and knowledge. In front of a vast television audience, the GOP nominee could reshape perceptions of his character and readiness -- if he can avoid being drawn into gaffes and personality clashes by Clinton.
He will benefit from rock-bottom expectations, given controversies whipped up by his tempestuous personality and the vast gulf in experience between Trump and Clinton.
But the formal one-on-one presidential debates -- which personify the "commander-in-chief test" many Americans ponder as they select their next president -- are a far stiffer test for Trump than the crowded free-for-alls of the Republican primary race.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/06/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-election-2016/index.html

Grading on a curve indeed.

 

[User1608]

There's a few things that should ease you a bit

- Election polls go up and down all the time and always have and always will. 2012 had some especially scary weeks. The fact that, at best, Trump is only tying Hillary is a good sign.

- Based on just the economy and the popularity of Obama, it would have been a safe guess at the Democrat winning this year, no matter who the candidates were. That hasn't changed. The economy and the current president are decent indicators of who the next president will be.

- State polls still show barely any path at all for Trump, and those haven't shifted as much as national polls.

Good post.😃

 

[Boke1879]

I think it'll be a bit before we see the fruits of Clintons seeds. Right now her and her surrogates are out there.

People like Biden, Kaine, Michelle, Barack and Bernie will be making the case for her in swing states which will be covered at least locally. And clearly Hillary is making herself more visible. Unfortunately people want to talk about coughing.

That said dems need to show unification and their contrast of Trump while Hillary needs to talk policy. She shouldn't focus on being more "likable". That won't change. Just go out there and do your thing.