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[Aaron Strife]

PPP Florida

Clinton (D) 47
Trump (R) 46

Trump (R) 44
Clinton (D) 43
Johnson (L) 5
Stein (G) 1
McMullin (I) 1

Also

Rubio (R) 40
Murphy (D) 37
Stanton (L) 10

Unrelated hilarity that may give Democrats an assist in winning the Minnesota House

http://m.startribune.com/dispute-ov...idence-goes-to-state-supreme-court/392522431/

Basically this guy has lied about his place of residence and may be thrown off the ballot over it. It's a safe Republican district and without him only the Democrat would be on the ballot.

Democrats (DFL in Minnesota) need six seats to tie the state House, seven to win it.

 

[SlimySnake]

Hilarious how the polls are getting closer.

I am sure the gap will widen after the first debate and stay that way. Still pretty nuts how republicans are coming around to embrace him. They always get in line.

 

[Emarv]

Hilarious how the polls are getting closer.

I am sure the gap will widen after the first debate and stay that way. Still pretty nuts how republicans are coming around to embrace him. They always get in line.

they got no backbone. i assume the same kind of widening by the beginning of October.

 

[Gruco]

I don't understand the angst over trumpeting this pay for play scandal. It's more likely that voters will hear that and think "isn't that what the Clintons did too". That doesn't help you. I'm not saying that what Clinton and Trump did are the same things legally, obviously they aren't. But we're talking perception here, in context of voters who don't pay attention and a media who doesn't investigate.

To be frank, it's the same reason the campaign isn't going after Trump's ugly sexual history. It ties back to something I mentioned awhile ago. The campaign/DNC has certain oppo research on Trump that could torpedo the race but fear releasing it would damage Clinton as well. It's a weird position to be in, but that's where we are with voters and the media perception.

It sounds like you might be coming at this from the question of "Should Hillary play up / make an ad about the Trump/Bondi scandal'? I think the bigger and more important question is, how it is a thing that the media spent weeks obsessing over the Clinton foundation but barely any time looking into the scandal mine that is the Trump foundation? I don't really have a strong opinion on the former, but people are very justifiably unhappy with the latter.

 

[ampere]

PPP's latest poll of Florida got me diablosing a lil' bit.

Wait, Hannity had Assange on his show and wished him all the best?

2016, man.

That mutual hate of Hillary is doing weird things

 

[TumblingHippo]

What do you think the takeaway from this election would be if Clinton ends up losing because of a third party candidate? I ask because I'm not sure what was taken away from the 2000 election other than "Gore didn't excite people enough".

 

[Zukkoyaki]

What do you think the takeaway from this election would be if Clinton ends up losing because of a third party candidate? I ask because I'm not sure what was taken away from the 2000 election other than "Gore didn't excite people enough".

Run a more liked candidate probably. On paper, Hillary is one of the most qualified presidential candidates ever and will almost certainly be a good president. But for various reasons people just don't like her.

 

[Emarv]

What do you think the takeaway from this election would be if Clinton ends up losing because of a third party candidate? I ask because I'm not sure what was taken away from the 2000 election other than "Gore didn't excite people enough".

if Clinton loses, it won't be because of Gary Johnson.

 

[Aaron Strife]

What do you think the takeaway from this election would be if Clinton ends up losing because of a third party candidate? I ask because I'm not sure what was taken away from the 2000 election other than "Gore didn't excite people enough".

It'd probably be a similar narrative, Clinton's fault for not being a better candidate.

Dunno what there is to worry about with the FL poll, it's a one point margin either way. Remember that in 2012 this was Obama's closest state. FL also isn't a key part of the Dem victory which involves winning PA, NH, CO and VA - PPP's polls of the first two look ok and CO/VA have been written off by everyone (and for good reason).

 

[Gruco]

I am pretty happy with how FL-Sen is going. It's clear the late primary was slowing Murphy down, but there's no reason to think he can't pull it off, especially in a contested presidential state.

Current prediction: + PA, NH, WI, IL, FL, IN. Toss up NV. Losses in IA, OH, MO, and AZ.

 

[Ecotic]

What do you think the takeaway from this election would be if Clinton ends up losing because of a third party candidate? I ask because I'm not sure what was taken away from the 2000 election other than "Gore didn't excite people enough".

Clinton blew it because of the emails, foundation, paid speeches, etc. 2012 would be a good comparison because Johnson and Stein were on the ballot then and didn't hurt Obama. We have to remember Hillary's favorables were high after being Secretary of State then cratered beyond normal wear and tear of a campaign due to her problems. Hillary will be blamed.

 

[nature boy]

Speaking of third-party candidates

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/evan-mcmullin-running-mate-227803

Whoops: Independent candidate appears to have accidentally picked a running mate
Evan McMullin intended the vice presidential candidate listed on his applications for state ballots to be only a placeholder, but the states say the name will appear on the ballot in November.

In all nine states where he has officially qualified on the presidential ballot, McMullin has listed a “Nathan Johnson” as his vice presidential nominee. McMullin’s campaign won’t provide any more information about Johnson — including which of the thousands of people named Nathan Johnson the campaign is referring to — saying he is only a placeholder until McMullin names an actual running mate.

But in eight of the nine states, top election officials say McMullin’s campaign can’t pull Johnson’s name off the ballot, and that it’s “Nathan Johnson” — not whomever McMullin eventually names as his pick for Vice President — that will appear on the ballot.

If McMullin is indeed stuck with Johnson on the ballot, it marks an embarrassing setback for a candidate already struggling with a lack of national name recognition, a small budget and a late start to his race. And it provides more fodder to McMullin critics, who say his bid for president is less a serious run for higher office than an attempt at self-promotion.

Someone must have promised him something big to go through this.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Senate races too

PA
McGinty 44
Toomey 41

NH
Hassan 47
Ayotte 44

IA
Grassley 49
Judge 43

Florida poll on its way today.

I vote that we include (R) and (D) in these moving forward or am I the only moron who don't know wtf these people are

 

[Gruco]

What do you think the takeaway from this election would be if Clinton ends up losing because of a third party candidate? I ask because I'm not sure what was taken away from the 2000 election other than "Gore didn't excite people enough".

Design your ballots in accordance with state law.

Let the popular president campaign for you.

In event of a recount, best to have the Supreme Court on your side.

As far as this election? I am sure people will conclude something about corruption and being shrill and Man of the People Bernie in this hypothetical. But I don't know what the take away would be. I don't actually buy that some generic D would be doing dramatically better. At the end of the day there is only one Barack Obama and even he probably only picks up like 3 points relative to Hillary. Anyone else has to deal with the challenge of being a real personal with their mess, rather than an onion article immaculate candidate.

I think people would be pretty livid at the media if Trump actually won, maybe that's the main take away. Just because you think a candidate is obviously a joke and he's good for ratings, you still have to do your job.

Regardless, I...don't think we're going to have to see this hypothetical play out.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I vote that we include (R) and (D) in these moving forward or am I the only moron who don't know wtf these people are

I usually just tune those posts out because I can't remember who is what or who I should be happy with.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I vote that we include (R) and (D) in these moving forward or am I the only moron who don't know wtf these people are

Please. I don't know these people!

 

[Aaron Strife]

I vote that we include (R) and (D) in these moving forward or am I the only moron who don't know wtf these people are

Edited their party labels in, this probably is a good idea.

I agree with your pickups Gruco, I'd add NC as one. I have a feeling about AZ but I can't really substantiate it.

 

[Gruco]

Up your senate game people. You don't need anyone to explain to you which states are important in the electoral college! This is just as important!

I can't believe I forgot about NC. I'll keep that as a tossup for now though, still want to see a little more to get a sense of that one.

 

[Mac_Lane]

Senate races too

PA
McGinty (D) 44
Toomey (R) 41

NH
Hassan (D) 47
Ayotte (R) 44

IA
Grassley (R) 49
Judge (D) 43

Florida poll on its way today.

Holy shit at those Iowa numbers. In 2010 Grassley won reelection by 31 freaking percentage points

 

[Y2Kev]

I just don't believe stein will get 5% but ok. I mean that would be huge for them.

 

[Emarv]

Hell, even when Hillary wins, the media is gonna take a hard look at itself. There will be tons written, calling people out and whatnot. The media stupidity or ineffectiveness has been the thing making me miss Jon Stewart the most. Sure comedians can call out Trump and the GOP all day, but so much media stupidity has gotten glossed over this election.

I also fully expect the media to turn on Trump the second he loses. Drop him right away and basically start calling him a joke or fluke or something. I think there are so many reporters ready to stop trying to be professional about him that the moment they're in the clear, the gloves are off.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Holy shit at those Iowa numbers. In 2010 Grassley won reelection by 31 freaking percentage points

It'd be hilarious if Iowa ended up being more competitive than Ohio.

That said I don't think Judge has a real shot just because early voting starts so soon. If Democrats were interested in running a real campaign there they'd have to do it like, now. Otherwise Judge will have to overcome a bunch of ticket splitters early on in the campaign.

 

[The Lamonster]

if Clinton loses, it won't be because of Gary Johnson.

This sentiment is strangely comforting.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I'm guessing nil or 1% for Stein and 5% for Johnson in the end.

 

[Gruco]

Hell, even when Hillary wins, the media is gonna take a hard look at itself. There will be tons written, calling people out and whatnot. The media stupidity or ineffectiveness has been the thing making me miss Jon Stewart the most. Sure comedians can call out Trump and the GOP all day, but so much media stupidity has gotten glossed over this election.

I also fully expect the media to turn on Trump the second he loses. Drop him right away and basically start calling him a joke or fluke or something. I think there are so many reporters ready to stop trying to be professional about him that the moment they're in the clear, the gloves are off.

Yeah I do think we have lost a lot by not having Stewart around this cycle. Oliver and Bee are doing great work but calling out the media for being lazy and vapid was so completely Stewart's wheelhouse and the kids of the Daily Show don't really have the same emphasis. There were three Stewart interviews in particular that will always be legendary - Tucker Carlson, Jim Cramer, and Ted Koppel. I have no doubt we'd have seen something on that level if he were still in the game in 2016, and who knows, maybe it would have lead a few people to think things over a bit more.

 

[Poodlestrike]

The way that by and large, 3rd parties draw evenly from both sides is... kind of hilarious kind of disgusting. Really goes to show that they're really just an anti-establishment vote sink rather than an ideological one.

 

[Boke1879]

Yeah I do think we have lost a lot by not having Stewart around this cycle. Oliver and Bee are doing great work but calling out the media for being lazy and vapid was so completely Stewart's wheelhouse and the kids of the Daily Show don't really have the same emphasis. There were three Stewart interviews in particular that will always be legendary - Tucker Carlson, Jim Cramer, and Ted Koppel. I have no doubt we'd have seen something on that level if he were still in the game in 2016, and who knows, maybe it would have lead a few people to think things over a bit more.

I wonder if he thinks he should have stayed around just a bit longer just to see this election through.

 

[whyamihere]

1. I think the polls have obviously tightened since Hillary has gone into hiding these past few weeks and Trump hasn't done anything super dumb.

2. Polling over Labor Day is dumb.

3. Everyone needs a new set of pampers as we head into October.

4. I do not think Stein will get above 1% and Johnson will probably struggle to crack 5%, though might.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Emerson College dropped some NE polls.

NH
- Clinton 42
- Trump 37
- Johnson 14

CT
- Clinton 50
- Trump 35
- Johnson 9

VT
- Clinton 47
- Trump 26
- Johnson 13

MA
- Clinton 50
- Trump 33
- Johnson 9

NJ
- Clinton 47
- Trump 43
- Johnson 5

ME
- Clinton 44
- Trump 35
- Johnson 12

RI
- Clinton 44
- Trump 41
- Johnson 8

Winning NH more than NJ and RI? Yeeeaaaahhh...

Edit:
Nate Cohn threw a little shade at Emerson on Twitter

I couldn't advise someone to attend any Emerson College, or any university that conducts its polls without cells. -1000 US News ranks.

 

[cooljeanius]

So, NH stuff to talk about: That parade in Milford I missed going to because I got lost? Well, apparently Bernie's "Our Revolution" group was having a similar parade at the same time in Warner, which is closer to me in Concord, that I could've gone to instead. What makes this odder is apparently he was in contact with the NHDCC, as they asked me if I wanted to go hear him speak in Lebanon after the parade in Milford, but when planning the Lebanon event together, apparently the topic of the conflicting parades beforehand in Milford and Warner never came up. If they'd bothered to communicate at all, maybe they could have worked things out, but instead the poor planning here led to disarray. I never found out how the turnout ended up at either parade, because I never saw any media coverage of either one, and the people at the NHDCC I talk to were all in Lebanon preparing for that event, so I'm assuming turnout was poor for both beforehand events. The different factions of Democrats involved here really need to liaise better if we're going to bury Trump in the landslide he deserves to be buried in this November.

 

[Iolo]

Emerson polls are dumb

 

[whyamihere]

Don't just call landlines! Stop doing polls over Labor Day weekend!!!

 

[Spoiled Milk]

 

[whyamihere]

Ooof I can't hold this take it's too hot!

 

[Cybit]

Good Politico article on Elan Kriegel and Clinton's super-secret data operation with 60 staffers.

This is a great read, Kriegel is the guy that calls the shots.

IN KRIEGEL WE TRUST

In Kriegel we trust indeed

It was difficult to not grin widely while reading this.

Ditto.

 

[mo60]

Emerson College dropped some NE polls.

NH
- Clinton 42
- Trump 37
- Johnson 14

CT
- Clinton 50
- Trump 35
- Johnson 9

VT
- Clinton 47
- Trump 26
- Johnson 13

MA
- Clinton 50
- Trump 33
- Johnson 9

NJ
- Clinton 47
- Trump 43
- Johnson 5

ME
- Clinton 44
- Trump 35
- Johnson 12

RI
- Clinton 44
- Trump 41
- Johnson 8

Winning NH more than NJ and RI? Yeeeaaaahhh...

Edit:
Nate Cohn threw a little shade at Emerson on Twitter

I don't think RI and NJ are that close. In reality hilary is most likely leading in both states by 15+ against trump right now and maybe 20+ or 25+ in RI.

1. I think the polls have obviously tightened since Hillary has gone into hiding these past few weeks and Trump hasn't done anything super dumb.

2. Polling over Labor Day is dumb.

3. Everyone needs a new set of pampers as we head into October.

4. I do not think Stein will get above 1% and Johnson will probably struggle to crack 5%, though might.

I don't even see stein getting above 0.50% of the vote at this point. Johnson may crack 5%.

 

[Owzers]

Everything Trump says is trying to sell people on being friendlier with Russia.

 

[Geg]

Wasn't Connecticut going to be a secret Trump state?

 

[Holmes]

Clinton +2 in Arizona (+3 with leaners)

800 LV, incl. Spanish-language calls

Seems like good numbers for Hildawg given that AZ is a traditionally red state

It's 40-37 when undecideds are asked which way they're leaning, but the pollster specifically made a point not to push undecideds. Oh well, good to see Clinton's margin increase when some of the undecideds say who they're leaning towards.

 

[Aaron Strife]

lol this Patrick Murphy ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLWxdw6LQ8o

 

[Boke1879]

Hillary is definitely going to be more visible now. So there is definitely going to be a lot of noise these next few weeks.

Debates will be the best time to show contrast between the both candidates

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Are pollsters intentionally trying to make safe blue and red states look close just to screw with people? Yesterday we got Texas and Mississippi, now it's Rhode Island and New Jersey.

 

[rSpooky]

OMG.. i am sitting here in the airport and a man is having a long coughing fit... Clinton is infecting us all with her death disease!!!

In the mean while cnn showing trump does not want to talk birther stuff no more. Off course dont see hom admitting he was wrong either...coward.

 

[whyamihere]

Clinton +2 in Arizona (+3 with leaners)

800 LV, incl. Spanish-language calls

Seems like good numbers for Hildawg given that AZ is a traditionally red state

They we're out from the 17th to 31st, which isn't great.

 

[Holmes]

They we're out from the 17th to 31st, which isn't great.

True. But those two weeks were apparently the Clinton campaign's worst weeks ever!

 

[whyamihere]

lol this Patrick Murphy ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLWxdw6LQ8o

Hahahahahaha

True. But those two weeks were apparently the Clinton campaign's worst weeks ever!

I just want Good Polls.

 

[Rebel Leader]

OMG.. i am sitting here in the airport and a man is having a long coughing fit... Clinton is infecting us all with her death disease!!!

In the mean while cnn showing trump does not want to talk birther stuff no more. Off course dont see hom admitting he was wrong either...coward.

All coughing fits are now referred to as the Clinton cough.
------

Whatvis trump going on about?

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

lol this Patrick Murphy ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLWxdw6LQ8o

lol That's great.

 

[nature boy]

Are pollsters intentionally trying to make safe blue and red states look close just to screw with people? Yesterday we got Texas and Mississippi, now it's Rhode Island and New Jersey.

It gets their names out there, so yes they mess up the methodology to get those kinds of results. Their polls are more PR stunts than actual interest in understanding where the race is.
(Talking about the Emersons and Qs out there).

SurveyMonkey is another thing.

 

[RustyNails]

I can safely say that the TIGHTENING INTENSIFIES is mostly due to the AP's horrendous, yellow journalism vomit about the clinton foundation that just stuck. The good thing about it is that the bullshit tornado happened before Labor day and its mostly over and polls starting next week will start reflecting that.

This Pam Bondi stuff is now catching on. I think I read somewhere a democratic operative (pretty sure it was Carville) that said election is fought every single day in news.