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[pigeon]

It gets their names out there, so yes they mess up the methodology to get those kinds of results. Their polls are more PR stunts than actual interest in understanding where the race is.
(Talking about the Emersons and Qs out there).

SurveyMonkey is another thing.

Going right past the "horserace media" and into the "horserace pollsters."

Reality-based community not doing great this year. I'm disappointed. Maybe Bernie really is the future.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

What's the minimum sentence for trespassing? Lock her up!

 

[Holmes]

I just want Good Polls.

This guy probably has a good internal poll.

 

[nature boy]

Going right past the "horserace media" and into the "horserace pollsters."

Reality-based community not doing great this year. I'm disappointed. Maybe Bernie really is the future.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...429962-532b-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html

 

[Wilsongt]

“Part of me in the beginning was conflicted about you, and I’ll tell you why,” Hannity said on the show. “I believe in privacy. I believe that people — especially when it comes to private emails, personal emails, etcetera — I think that people have a right to that privacy. On the other hand, you have done a lot of good on what you have exposed about how corrupt, dishonest, and phony our government is, and I applaud that. I think it’s good that we know that.”

You believe in privacy unless they are Clinton's emails. Get the fuck outta here with that shit. Fuck Hannity.

 

[Grief.exe]

I can safely say that the TIGHTENING INTENSIFIES is mostly due to the AP's horrendous, yellow journalism vomit about the clinton foundation that just stuck. The good thing about it is that the bullshit tornado happened before Labor day and its mostly over and polls starting next week will start reflecting that.

This Pam Bondi stuff is now catching on. I think I read somewhere a democratic operative (pretty sure it was Carville) that said election is fought every single day in news.

Hillary also spent all of last month raising money and limited time on actual campaigning. Looks like she made the trade off to concede some points in the polls to raise enough money to sprint to the end.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I looked it up. Here's North Dakota trespassing law.

I consider a pipeline to be a highly secured facility because it's a terrorist target. This would make this a felony under ND state law.

If this goes to the federal government instead, trespassing on federal property is also a felony.

It is this court's judgment that Dr. Jill Stein is no longer eligible for the presidency.

 

[Teggy]

I have a feeling this story is going to hurt Bondi more than Trump.

 

[Debirudog]

I have a feeling this story is going to hurt Bondi more than Trump.

Nah, it has to hurt him. It just has to. Trump paid to play.

 

[Holmes]

Ahh I got an email back from a job I applied for at the count of Napa. It'd be better than what I currently have. Higher pay and better benefits. I need vision coverage!

 

[mo60]

Are pollsters intentionally trying to make safe blue and red states look close just to screw with people? Yesterday we got Texas and Mississippi, now it's Rhode Island and New Jersey.

Technically Mississippi and Texas are closer than you usually would expect in a general election yet, but hilary is losing in these states definitely. I wouldn't call Mississippi and Texas safe red states in this election especially Mississippi. I think Mississippi will end up a lean red state depending on how well hilary does there in this election. Texas may end up as lean red state to in this election.

 

[darkstar0155]

Hillary also spent all of last month raising money and limited time on actual campaigning. Looks like she made the trade off to concede some points in the polls to raise enough money to sprint to the end.

They definitely made that calculation. Right now I say it was a good move, but only time will tell.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

They definitely made that calculation. Right now I say it was a good move, but only time will tell.

Had Trump continued being a jackass, it would have been a genius move. But he spent that time mostly rehabilitating his campaign and the media piled on.

 

[TestOfTide]

Technically Mississippi and Texas are closer than you usually would expect in a general election yet, but hilary is losing in these states definitely. I wouldn't call Mississippi and Texas safe red states in this election especially Mississippi. I think Mississippi will end up a lean red state depending on how well hilary does there in this election. Texas may end up as lean red state to in this election.

How is Hillary doing in Mississippi among those under 65?

Texas I'm confident in turning into lean red because Trump is only winning among people 65 and older.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

I have a feeling this story is going to hurt Bondi more than Trump.

That's not a bad outcome either.

 

[Hazmat]

I can safely say that the TIGHTENING INTENSIFIES is mostly due to the AP's horrendous, yellow journalism vomit about the clinton foundation that just stuck. The good thing about it is that the bullshit tornado happened before Labor day and its mostly over and polls starting next week will start reflecting that.

This Pam Bondi stuff is now catching on. I think I read somewhere a democratic operative (pretty sure it was Carville) that said election is fought every single day in news.

The problem with shit like the AP article is that even when other outlets denounce it the story gets more play. Someone saying that someone else's negative coverage of Clinton is bullshit essentially plays as negative coverage of Clinton.

Anyway, mission accomplished, CNN's homepage is a picture of each candidate with a whole-page headline with a black background: "They Each Have A Chance"

 

[Wilsongt]

Lololololololol

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein will soon face criminal charges over her involvement in a Tuesday protest against the Dakota Access Pipeline, reports The Bismarck Tribune.

Morton County Sheriff Kyle Kirchmeier told reporters at a press conference that his department was “working up the information through the state’s attorney’s office to pursue charges [against Stein].” The most likely charges, he said, were vandalism or trespassing.

Footage captured by local CBS affiliate KXMB and posted to social media clearly showed Stein spray-painting graffiti on a pipeline.

 

[Plinko]

Hilarious how the polls are getting closer.

I am sure the gap will widen after the first debate and stay that way. Still pretty nuts how republicans are coming around to embrace him. They always get in line.

Except it hasn't really been Trump gaining as much as Hillary losing votes.

EDIT:

LOL at Stein.

 

[AniHawk]

Lololololololol

lockerup

 

[Plinko]

That Florida PPP poll is way too close for comfort at this point. August was a terrible month for Hillary.

 

[darkstar0155]

Had Trump continued being a jackass, it would have been a genius move. But he spent that time mostly rehabilitating his campaign and the media piled on.

yep, they actually did it during a time he wasn't a complete ass. Either way the money game will be a big factor in the election so its not like there wasn't gains there, as she hopefully has enough cash to not have to fundraise the rest of the election

 

[ShOcKwAvE]

That Florida PPP poll is way too close for comfort at this point. August was a terrible month for Hillary.

Except the funding warchest.

 

[RustyNails]

Lololololololol

This is ridiculous. Dont make a big deal out of it. She was clearly looking for airtime and pressing charges mean she will get it.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Lololololololol

South Dakota, she wound up there after getting lost in Ohio??

 

[Wilsongt]

This is ridiculous. Dont make a big deal out of it. She was clearly looking for airtime and pressing charges mean she will get it.

Had Clinton done it, everyone on the news would be crowing about it.

 

[Debirudog]

I should have asked my prof of what he thought about CNN, given he's a founding producer of that channel. Maybe tomorrow.

 

[Plinko]

Except the funding warchest.

Right. Just have to have faith the campaign will use it well.

 

[thebloo]

Had Clinton done it, everyone on the news would be crowing about it.

They'll probably play it like this. "Hillary coughs and gets coverage, I can't even get arrested. Literally! It's rigged."

Spoiler

They won't play it like this because they're not competent.

A Palin like play (which was initially good) would probably kill 50% of this thread with panic.

 

[SlimySnake]

So apparently Asssange was on Hannity last night showing 'proof' that Hillary used the 'C' classification herself in the emails.

What a tool.

Obama needs to send some navy seals to that embassy tonight. I am so sick of him trying to play journalist.

 

[Debirudog]

Why are they still letting Assange do whatever he wants? He's a fucking criminal.

 

[TestOfTide]

Why are they still letting Assange do whatever he wants? He's a fucking criminal.

Like I said last night, I really wish Hillary could just send some people to make an example of him.

I don't even care if it would be unethical. Large scale doxers need to start learning to fear consequences.

 

[pigeon]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...429962-532b-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html

Good article!

The website FiveThirtyEight, which analyzed the accuracy and methodology of polls going back several elections, rated Monmouth’s an A-plus as of July 15, Marist’s an A, Quinnipiac’s an A-minus and Suffolk’s a B-plus. The George Washington University Battleground poll received a B....

But with publicity comes risk for institutions that prize their reputation for independence and authority. “You’re only as good as your last poll,” Miringoff said. “I worry about it for a lot of reasons: the reputation of the poll, the name of the college, our media partners. . . . We don’t want to be part of the ‘polls are wrong’ story.”

Gives a lot of details on how important it is for a college pollster to try to be accurate and correctly represent the race, rather than playing with their methodology to get clicks.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

How is Hillary doing in Mississippi among those under 65?

Texas I'm confident in turning into lean red because Trump is only winning among people 65 and older.

It's less of a youth divide in MS and more of a race divide. If you're white here, there's like a 90% chance you vote Republican.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Lololololololol

Whelp, I just lost my "Which Candidate Will Commit a Felony On Camera First" office pool.

Just goes to show that you should never bet against crazy.

 

[thebloo]

Are we actually entertaining the idea of multiple major outlets doing fake polls? I'm sure there are some that skew, but nothing more. Not even rASS.

 

[kess]

The Florida AG story keeps falling off the front page of OT and the Hillary is Dying thread blew through a dozen pages. I don't think we can solely blame the media for this.

 

[Debirudog]

That Florida poll seems weird...

I'm bad at analyzing polls though. Wished I was as smart as you guys.

 

[User 463088]

So, like, I don't want to be accused of unskewing anything, cause I'm not. I just found this funny.

In the GW Battleground poll:

Do you consider yourself to be a born-again or evangelical Christian?
Born-again/evangelical ......................................... 40%
Not born-again ...................................................... 54%
REFUSED (DNR) ..................................................6%

That's a very high number of born-again evangelicals!

 

[Teggy]

Guys, shush, the iPhone conference is starting. Carpool Karaoke with Tim Cook!


Have you guys been following the Theranos story? Pretty crazy.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

That Florida poll seems weird...

I'm bad at analyzing polls though. Wished I was as smart as you guys.

It's a tight poll during a tightened race in a state that's infamous for being a toss-up. PPP is a stellar pollster but they've generally had things a little closer than most. But they've also been reeeeally consistent in their polls as well. Remember, most polls of Florida have had Clinton ahead. Given where the race is right now, we can expect to see some with Trump ahead here and there.

Also the Florida poll was done during Labor Day.

Don't let it bother you. Think of it this way: If the best Trump can do in a Florida poll in the current polling climate is +1, things aren't looking too good for him.

 

[RustyNails]

The Florida AG story keeps falling off the front page of OT and the Hillary is Dying thread blew through a dozen pages. I don't think we can solely blame the media for this.

The AG story has been bubbling for months. It's only brought up now more because NYT reported that Trump paid the IRS fine last week for illegal contribution. It's a classic media story and I'm pretty sure Bondi is going to be hounded by Florida press for the forseeable future.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Not the Onion.

Evan McMullin is running as an independent conservative alternative to Donald Trump. Who McMullin is running with, however, is a bit of a mystery.

In all nine states where he has officially qualified on the presidential ballot, McMullin has listed a “Nathan Johnson” as his vice presidential nominee. McMullin’s campaign won’t provide any more information about Johnson — including which of the thousands of people named Nathan Johnson the campaign is referring to — saying he is only a placeholder until McMullin names an actual running mate.

But in eight of the nine states, top election officials say McMullin’s campaign can’t pull Johnson’s name off the ballot, and that it’s “Nathan Johnson” — not whomever McMullin eventually names as his pick for Vice President — that will appear on the ballot.

 

[hammysaurusrex]

I have a feeling this story is going to hurt Bondi more than Trump.

This is my suspicion as well. My assumption is that voters look at the person in government taking the money as fundamentally worse than the person giving the money. The Left hates both, the Right only hates the receiver - so the net impact would be Clinton and Bondi getting more scrutiny compared to Trump.

 

[B-Dubs]

Not the Onion.

Says who?

 

[Teggy]

Mario is coming to the iPhone. New best console for Adam.

edit; oh god, it's an endless runner I think.

 

[BlastProcessing]

Mario is coming to the iPhone. New best console for Adam.

edit; oh god, it's an endless runner I think.

The age of man is over. Now it's the fire's turn.

 

[Gruco]

Going right past the "horserace media" and into the "horserace pollsters."

Reality-based community not doing great this year. I'm disappointed. Maybe Bernie really is the future.

I think you are being too casually dismissive here.

Washpo/SurveyMonkey 50 state poll is a good example. It is loaded with silly results. Texas is not +1 Hillary. The starting point is a self-selected subsample of the population, and even within that they do not (cannot) stratify the sampling by the final weights being used. There are no margins. It's not particularly serious. One should not do this to get a better understanding of where the race stands. It's basically a pointless exercise.

Pointing this out is reality based. I get that this thread has a lot of people picking over polls, that micro-analysis is annoying, and that nobody wants to see a left wing unskewing. That does not mean that all criticism of polls is wrong. In fact, given the surge in polling and the range of upstarts and new approaches, a critical eye is probably warranted.

 

[B-Dubs]

Mario is coming to the iPhone. New best console for Adam.

edit; oh god, it's an endless runner I think.

Yup, it's just an endless runner. I imagine it'll be the best endless runner we've ever seen, but it's not Mario as we expect it to be.

 

[AndyD]

You believe in privacy unless they are Clinton's emails. Get the fuck outta here with that shit. Fuck Hannity.

A lot of people are for stricter citizen privacy but less for government officials. He is two faced about it for political motives, but it's not an unusual position at large.

 

[Debirudog]

Nintendo isn't going to deliberately make a fully fledged Mario title on I-phone lol. Though I suspect them to port the SM64DS minigames on the iphone which would be more ideal.