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[nature boy]

According to Kasey Hunt,

1) Arizona
2) Georgia
3) Indiana

are the GOP states the Clinton campaign is going to target more.

Priorities USA not going to spend a dime anymore in Virginia.

 

[User 463088]

According to Kasey Hunt,

1) Arizona
2) Georgia
3) Indiana

are the GOP states the Clinton campaign is going to target more.

Priorities USA not going to spend a dime anymore in Virginia.

I'm guessing they're feeling pretty good, then. I wonder if the Indiana play is to boost Bayh or to boost Hillary by tying her to him. Either makes sense. Personally, I'd put some money in SC or Mizzourah before Indiana, but whatever.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Still had the White House and mid-term elections always suck for the party in power? Again, yeah, that stung, but I'm talking about straight up fraud. You guys are talking about elections the democrats lost because they didn't have the votes, I'm talking about elections where the votes were very very likely there but dismissed.

Conversely, at least 2000 had several things to explain that level of fuckery; 2010 was the actual electorate more or less independently deciding to do everything that happened that year. At least you can potentially control the first kind!

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I too learn all my economics from YouTube channels.

I never responded to you but I still stand by what I said for a variety of reasons >.>

1) I never said control for "all" variables, I said control for some, and I listed which ones. I recall that the paper in question listed justifications as well.

2) I never said to "ignore the other part of the gap for no reason". This was in the context of the claim that there is a certain gap explicitly caused by refusing to pay women an equal wage. It does not matter that the academic argument is more sophisticated because the conventional argument in popular culture is not. It intentionally oversimplifies a phenomenon which is in itself disinguenous. This is not a straw man because I can point out many examples of politicians and pundits making this claim, which inevitably filters into the popular discourse.

3) You're right, I have not taken an econometrics course. My training is in statistics, not economics.

 

[Iolo]

It has to be to ensure the Senate seat in Indiana. There's no way in hell she'll win there unless we're already at 400 EV.

 

[Paches]

Chuck Todd...

 

[Box of Kittens]

My first election was 2002. 2004 was not a good experience for a first presidential election, since I had bought into the "undecideds break for the challenger" hype and had seen the leaked exit polls showing Kerry headed to victory.

I'm guessing they're feeling pretty good, then. I wonder if the Indiana play is to boost Bayh or to boost Hillary by tying her to him. Either makes sense. Personally, I'd put some money in SC or Mizzourah before Indiana, but whatever.

I'm not sure Bayh really needs the help, but it could be just the boost Gregg needs.

 

[Revolver]

I'm so glad Brianna called out Kingston on Mark Foley when he was yammering about Mateen's father being at that Hillary rally.

 

[Oblivion]

Y'all were talking about cable news hosts a few pages back, and while I probably shouldn't be surprised, I did find it somewhat interesting that most of them went to top tier schools.

Rachel Maddow: went to Stanford for undergrad and Oxford for grad school.
Keith Olbermann: went to Cornell
Lawrence O'Donnell: went to Harvard
Chris Hayes: went to Brown
Fareed Zakaria: Went to Yale and then Harvard
Anderson Cooper: went to Yale
Joy Ann Reid: Harvard
Melissa Harris Perry: Went to grad school at Duke

Even Bill Maher went to Cornell and Stephen Colbert went to Northwestern!

Meanwhile I'm going to some moderate decent state university. :/ Maybe I can get into a more prestigious grad school when I get my B.A.

 

[gutter_trash]

Clinton's hardest hitting ad yet imo.

Sorry if posted already, busy day.

Hmm. Something about this ad doesn't quite connect with me, and I'm honestly not sure why. I'll have to think about it a bit more.

Unrelatedly, I never realized how much Trump Jr. looks like his father until watching that.

I don't like it either.

 

[Dominican Power]

We hating on Rachel Maddow now? Yea, she's liberal but she doesn't throw it in your face and spew off nonsense about the other side. When she attacks the right, it's all based on facts. I think she tries her hardest to be impartial and hear the arguments of the other side if those people are rational. I can't say the same about the pundits of right wing media. I also enjoy watching Fareed.

 

[Geg]

I've only voted twice, once in the 2008 general and again the 2012 general. I know I should be better about voting in other elections but living in a place where the outcomes are mostly inevitable (Alabama) makes it hard to get motivated to go vote.

 

[TheFatOne]

Why the fuck is chuck Todd taking a focus group of twelve people from one state seriously? Also the framing by Todd is hilariously wrong. He lumps Clintons speech in with the others as a race to the bottom. Not even fucking remotely close. One side is slinging mud the other is simply pointing out what their candidate has been saying. Trump when pressed couldn't even state why Clinton is a bigot. Clinton methodically broke down trump using his own words agaisnt him. To pretend the two are even remotely close is ludicrous. This right here is why i dislike the media. In an effort to look fair and balanced they make the bat hit crazy side appear normal. Also now I remember why I never really watch MTP.

 

[metalslimer]

We hating on Rachel Maddow now? Yea, she's liberal but she doesn't throw it in your face and spew off nonsense about the other side. When she attacks the right, it's all based on facts. I think she tries her hardest to be impartial and hear the arguments of the other side if those people are rational. I can't say the same about the pundits of right wing media. I also enjoy watching Fareed.

Yeah I'd besides Cooper she's my favorite anchor. She doesn't shout over the other person when she disagrees. She challenges her guests but tries to have conversations with them when she disagrees. I mean she can engage in a bit of punditry and I don't think she is particularly great at live political coverage but she is fine

 

[User 463088]

We hating on Rachel Maddow now? Yea, she's liberal but she doesn't throw it in your face and spew off nonsense about the other side. When she attacks the right, it's all based on facts. I think she tries her hardest to be impartial and hear the arguments of the other side if those people are rational. I can't say the same about the pundits of right wing media. I also enjoy watching Fareed.

See, I have a complex relationship with Rachel. Rachel on "The Rachel Maddow Show" is my 2nd favorite person on MSNBC. (First is my bae Joy) When Rachel is doing her show, she's brilliant, witty, she's on point. She's left leaning, obviously, but she's pretty fair. She doesn't let anyone get away with anything.

BUT

I can barely stand her on election night, especially when we add Brian Williams to the mix. She tries too fucking hard to not appear biased, so much so that she overcompensates and gives the Right (or the loser, depending) way more credit than they deserve. She also has the tendency to try too hard to have a hot take on something instead of just, you know, letting it breathe.

But, "The Rachel Maddow Show" is as close to great as you're going to get.

 

[Owzers]

Why the fuck is chuck Todd taking a focus group of twelve people from one state seriously? Also the framing by Todd is hilariously wrong. He lumps Clintons speech in with the others as a race to the bottom. Not even fucking remotely close. One side is slinging mud the other is simply pointing out what their candidate has been saying. Trump when pressed couldn't even state why Clinton is a bigot. Clinton methodically broke down trump using his own words agaisnt him. To pretend the two are even remotely close is ludicrous. This right here is why i dislike the media. In an effort to look fair and balanced they make the bat hit crazy size appear normal. Also now I remember why I never really watch MTP.

Both have said the word bigot therefore both are equal....somehow....that's how it works.

 

[Maledict]

According to Kasey Hunt,

1) Arizona
2) Georgia
3) Indiana

are the GOP states the Clinton campaign is going to target more.

Priorities USA not going to spend a dime anymore in Virginia.

For those of us who have been following the electoral map for the last 16 years, this election is damn crazy. The notion that Virginia would, in August, be so locked for the democrats that they pull funding for it is just... bizarre. It turns everything on its head.

 

[Emarv]

Y'all were talking about cable news hosts a few pages back, and while I probably shouldn't be surprised, I did find it somewhat interesting that most of them went to top tier schools.

Rachel Maddow: went to Stanford for undergrad and Oxford for grad school.
Keith Olbermann: went to Cornell
Lawrence O'Donnell: went to Harvard
Chris Hayes: went to Brown
Fareed Zakaria: Went to Yale and then Harvard
Anderson Cooper: went to Yale
Joy Ann Reid: Harvard
Melissa Harris Perry: Went to grad school at Duke

Even Bill Maher went to Cornell and Stephen Colbert went to Northwestern!

Meanwhile I'm going to some moderate decent state university. :/ Maybe I can get into a more prestigious grad school when I get my B.A.

Don't worry, Chuck Todd never even finished undergrad (he was a few credits short) and now he hosts the longest running TV show in America. There is hope!

 

[Beer Monkey]

Why the fuck is chuck Todd taking a focus group of twelve people from one state seriously? Also the framing by Todd is hilariously wrong. He lumps Clintons speech in with the others as a race to the bottom. Not even fucking remotely close. One side is slinging mud the other is simply pointing out what their candidate has been saying. Trump when pressed couldn't even state why Clinton is a bigot. Clinton methodically broke down trump using his own words agaisnt him. To pretend the two are even remotely close is ludicrous. This right here is why i dislike the media. In an effort to look fair and balanced they make the bat hit crazy side appear normal. Also now I remember why I never really watch MTP.

Chuck Todd is fucking Tom Greene, just look at him. He hasn't been the same since he and Drew Barrymore split up. Pity him, Freddie Got Fingered was the high point of his career.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

David Gregory is way better than Chuck Todd, eat me.

 

[campfireweekend]

I never responded to you but I still stand by what I said for a variety of reasons >.>

1) I never said control for "all" variables, I said control for some, and I listed which ones. I recall that the paper in question listed justifications as well.

2) I never said to "ignore the other part of the gap for no reason". This was in the context of the claim that there is a certain gap explicitly caused by refusing to pay women an equal wage. It does not matter that the academic argument is more sophisticated because the conventional argument in popular culture is not. It intentionally oversimplifies a phenomenon which is in itself disinguenous. This is not a straw man because I can point out many examples of politicians and pundits making this claim, which inevitably filters into the popular discourse.

3) You're right, I have not taken an econometrics course. My training is in statistics, not economics.

If all you're arguing is that we should to attempt to better the discourse surround the gender wage gap, and that it has certain flaws when talked of by some liberals, like Hillary's "equal pay for equal work" line, then we actually agree, and I'm sorry for taking the tone I did before.

I still think you should learn more economics tho. You always seem really adamant when it comes to the subject, and it would help your argumentation if you tried to back that up by reading some research papers, or even some pop economics books, like "Why Nations Fail" or "Capital in the 21st Century."

 

[User 463088]

David Gregory is way better than Chuck Todd, eat me.

I detect no lies.

Although, a warm bowl of creme fraiche would be superior to Chuck Todd.

 

[RustyNails]

Why the fuck is chuck Todd taking a focus group of twelve people from one state seriously? Also the framing by Todd is hilariously wrong. He lumps Clintons speech in with the others as a race to the bottom. Not even fucking remotely close. One side is slinging mud the other is simply pointing out what their candidate has been saying. Trump when pressed couldn't even state why Clinton is a bigot. Clinton methodically broke down trump using his own words agaisnt him. To pretend the two are even remotely close is ludicrous. This right here is why i dislike the media. In an effort to look fair and balanced they make the bat hit crazy side appear normal. Also now I remember why I never really watch MTP.

I feel shit like this is the number 1 reason for people's political apathy. Clowns like Todd have been driving the bubu both sides bus for a really long time. He does shit like this so he doesnt lose access to higher up people for mtp.

 

[Oblivion]

Don't worry, Chuck Todd never even finished undergrad (he was a few credits short) and now he hosts the longest running TV show in America. There is hope!

Great...Chuck Todd.

 

[Basileus777]

For those of us who have been following the electoral map for the last 16 years, this election is damn crazy. The notion that Virginia would, in August, be so locked for the democrats that they pull funding for it is just... bizarre. It turns everything on its head.

It's not a close race. When you are up 8 points nationally the map is not going to look anything like it did in 2000 or 2004.

 

[Maledict]

It's not a close race. When you are up 8 points nationally the map is not going to look anything like it did in 2000 or 2004.

Yes, but Virginia would not be the state you would pinpoint as having moved so far in one way that it merits a pull-out in August. It's swung *really* hard this election, far more so than other republican leaning states. It feels like trump has accelerated the journey it was on in terms of demographics and voting by at least a decade.

 

[Iolo]

It's funny how 538 rightly trashed pollsters for considering their own poll to be the gold standard and breathlessly reporting on changes as indicative of twists and turns in the race. And yet 538 now treats their own win percentages as gospel and breathlessly reports on declines or increases of a few percent. Sad.

 

[HylianTom]

After seeing him with Rachel a few weeks ago, my #1 wish for MSNBC's Election Night coverage is for Dan Rather to join the lineup. Chris Matthews is a bit too predictable on the historical context he'd provide to the night's festivities, and Rather would bring a different angle.

(That, and I think he played off of Rachel really well.)

 

[Paches]

Why the fuck is chuck Todd taking a focus group of twelve people from one state seriously? Also the framing by Todd is hilariously wrong. He lumps Clintons speech in with the others as a race to the bottom. Not even fucking remotely close. One side is slinging mud the other is simply pointing out what their candidate has been saying. Trump when pressed couldn't even state why Clinton is a bigot. Clinton methodically broke down trump using his own words agaisnt him. To pretend the two are even remotely close is ludicrous. This right here is why i dislike the media. In an effort to look fair and balanced they make the bat hit crazy side appear normal. Also now I remember why I never really watch MTP.

That interview segment was so damn bad. They had a focus group of 4 Trump/Clinton/Undecideds and making it out to be like this was the end all, be all of polling. Later on in the interview the pollster guy even said in a surprised tone, "4 of the respondents even said they might vote third party this year, it's crazy!". Disastrous segment.

 

[Mael]

I know I'm not American but looking at people remember their 1rst vote reminds of me of mine.
Basically the one election that ended up with a 2nd round with Lepen and Chirac.
So basically an actual turd in a nazi outfit and an old crook that at least is nice to make fun off (and if you complain about Clinton's super predator comments now, it's milksauce compared to the shit this guy spewed).

Fuck I would have loved to have something as fun as this 2016 election as my 1rst experience with democracy!

 

[Bowdz]

It's funny how 538 rightly trashed pollsters for considering their own poll to be the gold standard and breathlessly reporting on changes as indicative of twists and turns in the race. And yet 538 now treats their own win percentages as gospel and breathlessly reports on declines or increases of a few percent. Sad.

538 is a joke. Wang and Cohn are the two legit brahs left.

 

[Plinko]

For those of us who have been following the electoral map for the last 16 years, this election is damn crazy. The notion that Virginia would, in August, be so locked for the democrats that they pull funding for it is just... bizarre. It turns everything on its head.

Dat Tim Kaine effect.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I don't like it either.

I called a few pages ago, it's that it ends with EVERYTHING instead of a rapid list of specifics. It's just as ridiculous a sentiment as the one that caused it's creation.

 

[BlastProcessing]

I miss Peter Jennings

 

[Spoiled Milk]

It's funny how 538 rightly trashed pollsters for considering their own poll to be the gold standard and breathlessly reporting on changes as indicative of twists and turns in the race. And yet 538 now treats their own win percentages as gospel and breathlessly reports on declines or increases of a few percent. Sad.

To be fair, 538 integrates many pollsters and so the two scenarios are qualitatively different. Right?

 

[metalslimer]

Yes, but Virginia would not be the state you would pinpoint as having moved so far in one way that it merits a pull-out in August. It's swung *really* hard this election, far more so than other republican leaning states. It feels like trump has accelerated the journey it was on in terms of demographics and voting by at least a decade.

I would argue Virginia hasn't been a republican leaning state for years. This elections polling gap just exposed that.

 

[User 463088]

It's funny how 538 rightly trashed pollsters for considering their own poll to be the gold standard and breathlessly reporting on changes as indicative of twists and turns in the race. And yet 538 now treats their own win percentages as gospel and breathlessly reports on declines or increases of a few percent. Sad.

The thing that pisses me off is they include just any fucking think in their model. Literally anything.

There is no rational reason to include a poll run by Breitbart in your polling aggregate. Have some fucking integrity. They include a poll that they admit is bullshit (and not a poll) for "trend" purposes. The "trend" in this poll has shifted the lead 4 times in the last 4 days. It's aggravating as fuck.

 

[Diablos]

What's up with the Reuters poll today fam?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Don't like this Chuckie T hate AT ALL. Who the fuck is next on the block, ROBERT GIBBS????

YOU MONSTERS.

 

[Iolo]

We shouldn't dismiss 538 at all, but it is instructive to see the Upshot's comparison of the various aggregators, which shows real differences at the state level. It just shows how modelers can get completely different results from the same set of input data. So as with polls, you can't just look at one aggregator.

 

[Bowdz]

That interview segment was so damn bad. They had a focus group of 4 Trump/Clinton/Undecideds and making it out to be like this was the end all, be all of polling. Later on in the interview the pollster guy even said in a surprised tone, "4 of the respondents even said they might vote third party this year, it's crazy!". Disastrous segment.

Halperin did this shit throughout the primary and it is a complete waste of time. I remember him doing one in South Carolina with Republicans and nearly everyone in the panel was anti Trump, they loathed him, but they thought he'd probably win. It was such a massive waste of time, but Halperin took their opinion as gospel and was going on about how unlikely it was for Trump to win SC despite the polls. Flash forward a week and Trump dominated in SC and Halperin was acting like he nailed it.

Focus groups are such worthless pieces of media theater.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Unlike politicians, whistleblowers like @WikiLeaks don't feed us spin and deception. They invite us to read, watch and think for ourselves.

Dr. Jill Stein stole Gary Johnson's Saliva.

https://twitter.com/DrJillStein/status/768961441697239040

 

[Spoiled Milk]

If all you're arguing is that we should to attempt to better the discourse surround the gender wage gap, and that it has certain flaws when talked of by some liberals, like Hillary's "equal pay for equal work" line, then we actually agree, and I'm sorry for taking the tone I did before.

It's okay, I'm sorry for being PoliGAF's resident bullshit artist. And by the way, Hillary doesn't have a confused message like everyone else does (including Obama), because her argument about gender equality in the workforce reaches across a variety of topics, not just equal pay.

I still think you should learn more economics tho. You always seem really adamant when it comes to the subject, and it would help your argumentation if you tried to back that up by reading some research papers, or even some pop economics books, like "Why Nations Fail" or "Capital in the 21st Century."

To be fair, economics is a pretty complicated subject. :/ Also, I don't think I make many economic arguments... Maybe I'm just forgetting them. My education is mostly in statistics and computer science.

 

[User 463088]

We shouldn't dismiss 538 at all, but it is instructive to see the Upshot's comparison of the various aggregators, which shows real differences at the state level. It just shows how modelers can get completely different results from the same set of input data. So as with polls, you can't just look at one aggregator.

Oh, I'm not totally dismissing them. I think they include some questionable things in their model, though. Their model also tends to be really reactive to small changes in things like tracking polls.

 

[Measley]

Halperin did this shit throughout the primary and it is a complete waste of time. I remember him doing one in South Carolina with Republicans and nearly everyone in the panel was anti Trump, they loathed him, but they thought he'd probably win. It was such a massive waste of time, but Halperin took their opinion as gospel and was going on about how unlikely it was for Trump to win SC despite the polls. Flash forward a week and Trump dominated in SC and Halperin was acting like he nailed it.

Focus groups are such worthless pieces of media theater.

Despite it all, Halperin is a conservative. Deep down, he's always going to be in the tank for the GOP nominee and the Republican party.

 

[sc0la]

5 minutes ago I would have told you nothing could stop me voting for Hillary in November except death.

Then I browsed CNN

 

[Rebel Leader]

5 minutes ago I would have told you nothing could stop me voting for Hillary in November except death.

Then I browsed CNN

Then you realized that you were going to vote for her anyways.

 

[Retro]

Trump Doctor Wrote Health Letter in Just 5 Minutes as Limo Waited

Donald Trump's personal physician said he wrote a letter declaring Trump would be the healthiest president in history in just five minutes while a limo sent by the candidate waited outside his Manhattan office.

Dr. Harold Bornstein, who has been the GOP nominee's doctor for 35 years, told NBC News on Friday that he stands by his glowing assessment of the 70-year-old's physical state.

 

[RustyNails]

Only thing worse than panel polling (UPI) is live focus group testing. You will rarely see a focus group budge if ever. There is always an element of groupthink involved. To put the whole display infront of a camera, the herd mentality is further reinforced and people stick to their guns for the fear of being seen as pliable and easily changed.

Imo a true focus test will be individually done with complete anonymity. It will take longer, but it will definitely yield better results.

 

[Iolo]

Oh, I'm not totally dismissing them. I think they include some questionable things in their model, though. Their model also tends to be really reactive to small changes in things like tracking polls.

I think it's interesting how in the past few weeks, polls have now moved mostly to likely voter models, and the race hasn't been materially affected.

When polls did the same in 2012 Obama instantaneously lost like 6-8 points, making it look like the race was tightening suddenly.

Nate and co. discussed this changeover earlier in the year, but now that it's here, I haven't heard much if any discussion about it. What do they think about this phenomenon? I don't know, because it's more important to talk about how HRC went from 83% to 80% win chance in the past week.