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PoliGAF 2016 |OT10| Jill Stein Inflatable Love Doll

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B

Boke1879

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
I don't blame the people at that Flint event for acting out. Imagine you're black and you not only have to watch the only African-American President ever to leave office and not know when you will ever see one again in your lifetime, but you also have to consider the sting of possibility that his replacement will be a proud bigot.
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What happened?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
CsWd1_xVUAAvmsm.jpg:large


At least Jefferson and Madison didn't get triggered as easily by people calling them a racist. But "calling someone a racist is the worst bigotry!" was around even then.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Chezzymann said:
This is the map on fivethirtyeight currently



The odds are Clinton 51% and trump 48% in florida and Clinton 54% trump 46% in Nevada,

if Trump managed to win those two it would put him at 275 electoral votes.

I'm not saying its likely but if everything went his way its possible. Id say fivethirtyeight's current odds are accurate. About a 64% chance for clinton, 35% for trump.
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Give Trump Nevada and Florida and he still loses: http://www.270towin.com/maps/QRemJ
 
B

BriGuy

Member
Black Mamba said:
Hillary is still comfortably ahead. Don't panic.

This is just the media setting up a 1st debate comeback story for Hildawg.
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No offense, but your definition of "comfortable" is horseshit. Even if Hillary wins, the fact that Trump has garnered the support he has speaks volumes about the character of this nation, and it's a fucking horror story.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Darkgran said:
I absolutely agree on this 100%. The media is terrible right now.

I still don't see a path...
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There's a clear path.

He wins FLA, VA, NC, OH (all of which are well within reach right now) with the usual suspects, and he's your president.

The odds are he isn't going to get all of the necessary states as things stand right now. Hence why he's at a 35% chance of victory. But if polling continues as it is, there's a path.

EDIT: Map also includes NV. Yes, it's a stretch... Which is why I ultimately think that HRC will be president. Doesn't mean one can't be concerned at the moment.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
BriGuy said:
No offense, but your definition of "comfortable" is horseshit. Even if Hillary wins, the fact that Trump has garnered the support he has speaks volumes about the character of this nation, and it's a fucking horror story.
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even I can agree to this which is why I want a blowout. Trump needs to be soundly destroyed. Romney and McCain were vastly superior candidates to Trump and he's matching or exceeding those two? give me a break America.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Maxim726X said:
There's a clear path.

He wins FLA, VA, NC, OH (all of which are well within reach right now) with the usual suspects, and he's your president.

The odds are he isn't going to get all of the necessary states as things stand right now. Hence why he's at a 35% chance of victory. But if polling continues as it is, there's a path.
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He's not close in VA
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
I can't believe Obama bombed So dean hard on that debate... WE'RE DONE. Honestly guys, I see no reason to be positive right now--he looked downtrodden, like he didn't want the job. How is he going to inspire confidence when he doesn't even care about the race?

Mitt. President Mitt. What a world.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Chezzymann said:
There's something inconsistent about five thirty eights map and this map. On five thirty eights map, it says trump has 240 without florida and nevada. 240 + 29 + 6 = 275. Why is that map different? I dont get it.
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The electoral vote counts on 538 are averages, not exact numbers.

They have Clinton favored to win in states adding up to 306 EVs but her probability is lower in states like FL so it drags down her total average.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
It's not impossible. Michigan could be concerning. Flip it, and there's the race.

I have no idea what polling looks like in Michigan right now, though.
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and yet if clinton wins one of NV, NC, IA, FL, or OH its over for trump. there's a lot more to go wrong on his side. This is why bizarrely national polling matters a lot this year as those states differ a lot
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
It's not impossible. Michigan could be concerning. Flip it, and there's the race.

I have no idea what polling looks like in Michigan right now, though.
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Just looked. Very comfortable for Clinton... Recent average 6.0

So yeah, he would basically have to get all of the competitive states, plus flip one that currently isn't competitive. It's not impossible (she lead FLA by 6 at one point, Ohio by 4 as recently as 2 weeks ago), but highly improbable.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
I wish Kasich would do more than just stand on the side lines and take cheap shots at Trump every so often.

If he'd formally endorse Hillary, or at least go hard and serious against Trump, it would do wonders for Ohio.
 
T

Touchdown

Banned
Besides the polls just remember that Trump has one of the poorest if not THE poorest get out the vote ground game in United States election history as opposed to Clinton who benefits from the amazing organization that the Obama team was able to accomplish the last 2 elections. People were a little surprised how big Obama won by in some districts in 2012.... just wait until this November.
 
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Maxim726X

Member
Touchdown said:
Besides the polls just remember that Trump has one of the poorest if not THE poorest get out the vote ground game in United States election history as opposed to Clinton who benefits from the amazing organization that the Obama team was able to accomplish the last 2 elections. People were a little surprised how big Obama won by in some districts in 2012.... just wait until this November.
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This is also true. Polling is less effective when one candidate has a shit ground game.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Maxim726X said:
This is also true. Polling is less effective when one candidate has a shit ground game.
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I don't think we really know this for sure, we've never had a candidate with no ground game at all.

But my guess is a lot of white people will hit the polls and not realize they're not registered to vote. A lot of the GOP's dumb voting tricks might actually hurt white people this time around, ha!

Zukkoyaki said:
A Michigan poll from earlier this week had Clinton +6 despite being landline only
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That's encouraging. The GOP has messed up bad in Michigan, that's probably why she's killing it there.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
balladofwindfishes said:
I don't think we really know this for sure, we've never had a candidate with no ground game at all.

But my guess is a lot of white people will hit the polls and not realize they're not registered to vote. A lot of the GOP's dumb voting tricks might actually hurt white people this time around, ha!
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Yeah, I've seen Nate Silver claim that a good GOTV operation is worth a point or two, but what happens if the opponent has a paper-thin operation? Do we subtract points from estimates? Making things even worse - even if it really were to cost him a point or two, it'd be damn difficult to discern the effect from just run-of-the-mill polling variance.

Still, I'd much rather be Hillary in a tied-polls-on-Election-Day scenario. She'd get the one or two swing states she needs in that scenario.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
konka said:
on this day today Clinton is currently 0.3% behind where Obama was on the same date in 2012 on the huffpost pollster.

by October 13th Obama had only a 0.3% lead over Romney.
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dose of reality

EDIT:
anonymous said:
ok now
consider what you just said
and tell me if that holds any statistical merit in any other discipline
cause it doesn't
therefore
doesn't hold merit in this one
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I

iammeiam

Member
R

royalan

Member
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
whyamihere said:
This interview with Ivanka by Cosmo of all places is amazing because they actually push her on her father's hypocrisy on his child care plans and she gets beyond pissy. On my phone so I can't post the whole thing, but. Wow.

http://www.cosmopolitan.com/politics/a3356886/ivanka-trump-child-care-maternity-leave-policy/
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This is good stuff. From the gender imbalance of the plan to pretending she is unfamiliar with her father's statement. And then she just bails. Hah.
 
R

royalan

Member
Honestly, I think it's thread worthy. Bravo to that journalist for tripping her up on the same-sex component... Or lack thereof.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
NYT Politics ‏@nytpolitics
Union Leader of N.H. endorses Gary Johnson over Trump. Publisher on Trump: “The man is a liar, a bully, a buffoon.”
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First time the Union Leader isn't endorsing a Republican for President in more than 100 years.
 
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